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Conference Realignment thread

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On 7/12/2024 at 5:48 AM, Gasherbrum said:

Coming from a Wazzu alum, I think a full MW merger makes the most sense. Would be very difficult to justify the steep exit penalties plus creating bad will from leaving some schools out - both Wazzu & OSU already know how this feels.  I'd be leery about joining up with a temporarily patched-up ACC - it'd be short-term and the league would likely look like that Cantina scene in Star Wars rather than a group of schools that actually look like they belong together. 

Well played. Totally agree

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On 7/12/2024 at 9:36 AM, Chalsean said:

Not to mention that the 6 schools joining will have to want to drop a lot of $$ to go to a smaller conference, which I'm not sure anyone does in the current landscape.  Having the bare minimum # with 2 schools actively looking for the door is a recipe for disaster.  And lets be honest, theyre not exactly making friends trying to do to another conference what was done to them.  You'll straight up kneecap the remaining MWC schools as theres not 6 schools to backfill with or really even 2.  MWC may not survive to draw more from if OSU/WSU get lucky in 4-5 years.  No offense to OSU/WSU, they are fine institutions and I do hope they join.  But there's a lot of cost and risk in poaching.

I think this is fully correct. My only hope is that OSU and WSU realize this sooner than later. 

Moreover, it would  appear the factor of disassociation and disaffiliation with time is a real problem.

I really do not believe that continuing to wait to announce their decision to reverse merge with the MWC is helping OSU and WSU’s programs. Let’s be honest that neither school has the following of, say, Nortre Dame. And, these teams, their athletes, and their fans will demand stable, long-term, conference affiliation, or they are just going to slowly disaffect.

The longer they wait, the harder this is going to be for WSU and OSU — time is not on their side.

 

 

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On 7/13/2024 at 11:49 AM, renoskier said:

why?

there's no reason to do anything yet

what becomes "harder"?

Umm…they are losing athletes, coaches and their administrative staff. The longer they wait, the more people bail.
 

Despite their false hype trying to buy time, nobody wants to watch a conference of two. 

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On 7/13/2024 at 9:43 PM, SteedLaw said:

Umm…they are losing athletes, coaches and their administrative staff. The longer they wait, the more people bail.
 

Despite their false hype trying to buy time, nobody wants to watch a conference of two. 

people are going to "bail" regardless

there's millions $$$ of reasons to delay the decision because the "2" get to share all the bball credits as long as they are still a conference

there may also be millions in football bowl money to be divvied up

no need to make a premature decision

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On 7/13/2024 at 10:32 AM, SteedLaw said:

I think this is fully correct. My only hope is that OSU and WSU realize this sooner than later. 

freestar

Moreover, it would  appear the factor of disassociation and disaffiliation with time is a real problem.

I really do not believe that continuing to wait to announce their decision to reverse merge with the MWC is helping OSU and WSU’s programs. Let’s be honest that neither school has the following of, say, Nortre Dame. And, these teams, their athletes, and their fans will demand stable, long-term, conference affiliation, or they are just going to slowly disaffect.

The longer they wait, the harder this is going to be for WSU and OSU — time is not on their side.

 

 

They got two years before the MWC deal ends.

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Decisions need to be made by spring of 2025 at the latest. Coaches, players, athletic department employees, fans and others associated with the WSU and OSU programs need some clarity and a blueprint going forward. The schools need to start establishing the narrative. A TV contract needs to be negotiated. Any kind of merger will take months of planning, scheduling adjustments, etc., to complete so it goes off smoothly for the 26-27 school year.

I just don't see any viable alternative than some kind of merger. The Big 12 doesn't want WSU and OSU; it's certainly not a given the ACC will implode and even if it does it's going to be years before the situation is resolved. legally.

The other 10 schools are not coming back to a Pacific Coast-oriented conference; the only possible exception is Cal, whose athletic department is hundreds of millions of dollars in debt and will sink further into the red in the ACC. Schools like Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Wake, Va Tech, etc., have no allure at all in the Bay Area and will disasters at the box office.

Cal also doesn't have the institutional ego Stanford does and might someday concede it made a mistake and that drawing 40-50K for a football game against Fresno State, SDSU, OSU, SJSU or Boise State isn't a bad thing compared to drawing 20k for a game with Syracuse.

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On 7/14/2024 at 6:29 AM, renoskier said:

people are going to "bail" regardless

there's millions $$$ of reasons to delay the decision because the "2" get to share all the bball credits as long as they are still a conference

there may also be millions in football bowl money to be divvied up

no need to make a premature decision

WS and OS Presidents believe they have to make a decision in the next few months. "I feel that in my conversations with (President) Jayathi Murthy at Oregon State, I think early in 2025, we’ve got to make a decision about where we’re going to be for the next four or five years. I don’t think we can continue having a foot in multiple conferences and hoping that something’s going to come our way. So I think we’re going to spend the fall planning, looking at our best options. And I think January-February, we’ve got to pick what we think is the best and aggressively move forward.
So that’s where we are in the timeline."

 

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On 7/14/2024 at 10:40 AM, Beaver-Poke said:

Decisions need to be made by spring of 2025 at the latest. Coaches, players, athletic department employees, fans and others associated with the WSU and OSU programs need some clarity and a blueprint going forward. The schools need to start establishing the narrative. A TV contract needs to be negotiated. Any kind of merger will take months of planning, scheduling adjustments, etc., to complete so it goes off smoothly for the 26-27 school year.

I just don't see any viable alternative than some kind of merger. The Big 12 doesn't want WSU and OSU; it's certainly not a given the ACC will implode and even if it does it's going to be years before the situation is resolved. legally.

The other 10 schools are not coming back to a Pacific Coast-oriented conference; the only possible exception is Cal, whose athletic department is hundreds of millions of dollars in debt and will sink further into the red in the ACC. Schools like Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Wake, Va Tech, etc., have no allure at all in the Bay Area and will disasters at the box office.

Cal also doesn't have the institutional ego Stanford does and might someday concede it made a mistake and that drawing 40-50K for a football game against Fresno State, SDSU, OSU, SJSU or Boise State isn't a bad thing compared to drawing 20k for a game with Syracuse.

 

Cal has a new chancellor and he sounds like he has some common sense. I wouldn't give up on them yet.

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On 7/14/2024 at 10:47 AM, wolf from 73 said:

WS and OS Presidents believe they have to make a decision in the next few months. "I feel that in my conversations with (President) Jayathi Murthy at Oregon State, I think early in 2025, we’ve got to make a decision about where we’re going to be for the next four or five years. I don’t think we can continue having a foot in multiple conferences and hoping that something’s going to come our way. So I think we’re going to spend the fall planning, looking at our best options. And I think January-February, we’ve got to pick what we think is the best and aggressively move forward.
So that’s where we are in the timeline."

 

Well yes, this is obvious. The grace period, from what I understand, is only two years, where they either have to rebuild the conference or abandon the Pac completely, or the NCAA will abandon it for them. They of course will need to have that decision made several months to a year before it takes place. Just because those two schools haven't shown their hand yet doesn't mean negotiations aren't happening. Schools and fans of the MWC are understandably anxious to find out, but patience is the only option right now.

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On 7/14/2024 at 11:40 AM, Beaver-Poke said:

Decisions need to be made by spring of 2025 at the latest. Coaches, players, athletic department employees, fans and others associated with the WSU and OSU programs need some clarity and a blueprint going forward. The schools need to start establishing the narrative. A TV contract needs to be negotiated. Any kind of merger will take months of planning, scheduling adjustments, etc., to complete so it goes off smoothly for the 26-27 school year.

I just don't see any viable alternative than some kind of merger. The Big 12 doesn't want WSU and OSU; it's certainly not a given the ACC will implode and even if it does it's going to be years before the situation is resolved. legally.

The other 10 schools are not coming back to a Pacific Coast-oriented conference; the only possible exception is Cal, whose athletic department is hundreds of millions of dollars in debt and will sink further into the red in the ACC. Schools like Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Wake, Va Tech, etc., have no allure at all in the Bay Area and will disasters at the box office.

Cal also doesn't have the institutional ego Stanford does and might someday concede it made a mistake and that drawing 40-50K for a football game against Fresno State, SDSU, OSU, SJSU or Boise State isn't a bad thing compared to drawing 20k for a game with Syracuse.

Even if the ACC implodes and everything is figured out quickly from a legal standpoint, it doesn't mean that the ACC would be interested in WSU and OSU and depending on who is left in the ACC, it very well might not make financial sense for WSU and OSU to want to go to the ACC.  

I'm with you, the only thing that makes sense to me is a merger.  I will take that a step further and state a full merger.  

I know people want to cherry pick schools from the MW but it just doesn't seem feasible to me.  Drawing AAC schools with the possibility of an ACC implosion doesn't make sense either.  

The MW schools might be able to get their exit fees reduced but it would be a gamble for the to find out and I don't see how OSU and WSU would get their MW poaching fee reduced.  Those two schools paying $67 million to the MW just doesn't make financial sense to me, especially when they are trying to navigate severely reduced future budgets.  

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On 7/14/2024 at 10:40 AM, Beaver-Poke said:

Decisions need to be made by spring of 2025 at the latest. Coaches, players, athletic department employees, fans and others associated with the WSU and OSU programs need some clarity and a blueprint going forward. The schools need to start establishing the narrative. A TV contract needs to be negotiated. Any kind of merger will take months of planning, scheduling adjustments, etc., to complete so it goes off smoothly for the 26-27 school year.

I just don't see any viable alternative than some kind of merger. The Big 12 doesn't want WSU and OSU; it's certainly not a given the ACC will implode and even if it does it's going to be years before the situation is resolved. legally.

The other 10 schools are not coming back to a Pacific Coast-oriented conference; the only possible exception is Cal, whose athletic department is hundreds of millions of dollars in debt and will sink further into the red in the ACC. Schools like Pitt, BC, Syracuse, Wake, Va Tech, etc., have no allure at all in the Bay Area and will disasters at the box office.

Cal also doesn't have the institutional ego Stanford does and might someday concede it made a mistake and that drawing 40-50K for a football game against Fresno State, SDSU, OSU, SJSU or Boise State isn't a bad thing compared to drawing 20k for a game with Syracuse.

 

On 7/14/2024 at 10:47 AM, wolf from 73 said:

WS and OS Presidents believe they have to make a decision in the next few months. "I feel that in my conversations with (President) Jayathi Murthy at Oregon State, I think early in 2025, we’ve got to make a decision about where we’re going to be for the next four or five years. I don’t think we can continue having a foot in multiple conferences and hoping that something’s going to come our way. So I think we’re going to spend the fall planning, looking at our best options. And I think January-February, we’ve got to pick what we think is the best and aggressively move forward.
So that’s where we are in the timeline."

 

yes, I agree with Beaver-Poke, that a decision should come next spring...

but if a full merger is agreed on, I don't know if it would happen for the 25-26 school year or the following year

hard to say without knowing the WSU/OSU cash flow from the PAC12

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On 7/14/2024 at 3:57 PM, renoskier said:

 

yes, I agree with Beaver-Poke, that a decision should come next spring...

but if a full merger is agreed on, I don't know if it would happen for the 25-26 school year or the following year

hard to say without knowing the WSU/OSU cash flow from the PAC12

When is the MWC TV contract officially up?  Wasn't it 25? 

bsu%252520mwc%252520logo.jpg

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On 7/14/2024 at 2:57 PM, renoskier said:

 

yes, I agree with Beaver-Poke, that a decision should come next spring...

but if a full merger is agreed on, I don't know if it would happen for the 25-26 school year or the following year

hard to say without knowing the WSU/OSU cash flow from the PAC12

2026-27 academic year. Take their time, have plenty of time to negotiate a decent TV package, get everything lined up and do it right.

Fill merger is the only viable financial option. Any money spent on by-out fees instead of facilities/program enhancement is essentially wasted. 

 

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On 7/15/2024 at 6:06 PM, EvilPoke said:

Interesting.  I wonder if Nevarez is pushing this narrative behind the scenes in hopes of forestalling any defections from the MWC to the Pac.  Claiming that bringing OSU and WSU into the MWC would not substantially increase MWC per-school TV revenue is a subtle way of undermining the presumption that any defector joining OSU and WSU in a "lean and nimble" rebuilt Pac would receive a substantial enough TV revenue increase to offset its exit fees.  If the former is true then clearly the latter cannot be, right?

The best defense is a good offense, but if that's her intent then I hope Nevarez doesn't overplay the MWC's hand.

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On 7/16/2024 at 1:22 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Interesting.  I wonder if Nevarez is pushing this narrative behind the scenes in hopes of forestalling any defections from the MWC to the Pac.  Claiming that bringing OSU and WSU into the MWC would not substantially increase MWC per-school TV revenue is a subtle way of undermining the presumption that any defector joining OSU and WSU in a "lean and nimble" rebuilt Pac would receive a substantial enough TV revenue increase to offset its exit fees.  If the former is true then clearly the latter cannot be, right?

The best defense is a good offense, but if that's her intent then I hope Nevarez doesn't overplay the MWC's hand.

Mmm I don't think Dodd is the narrative pushing kinda guy, hes not like the Calzone clown.  Nevarez has seemed a straight shooter to me.  10%-15% sounds about right honestly as far as increased media and divided by 14 schools, its maybe a 1% increase.  Is that worth the legal fees, rebranding, etc.?  There is cost in rebranding, developing a new brand, etc.  At this juncture, MWC schools don't see the benefit since OSU/WSU are keeping the war chest for themselves. They have lots of debt and the legal entity is a hot mess right now.

To me, it sounds like OSU/WSU really pissed off MWC schools with their attitude and attempted poaching.  Would they make the conference better?  Absolutely.  Do we need them?  Absolutely not.  The word merger is thrown around way too much for just 2 schools.  Call it what it is, expansion.  And I suspect it will be MWC staying put with 1 or both joining the conference.   If they can pull Calford back that would change the narrative.

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