Conference Realignment thread

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 7/11/2024 at 11:34 AM, SteedLaw said:

Hmmm...despite what others have said above, that is exactly what I heard too. WSI and OSU are looking to make their decision in the next 4-6 weeks.

I know others will disagree, but I cannot for the life of me understand why OSU/WSU would want to wait until after the start of the season to announce their formal membership with the MWC or vice versa. 

At this juncture, the BIG XII and the ACC are 100% NOT coming for you -- end of story and full and complete stop. All you are doing by delaying the decision is hurting your programs, your coaches, and your athletes that (at least in substantial part) RELY GREATLY on conference affiliation and membership to earn accolades, succeed and grow. Neither of these programs have nationwide followings like ND or even Army or Navy. It is silly to think they have not waited too long already. 

Seriously, wait until January and there might not be much left of the men's Football and BB programs at either of these schools. 

Time to reverse merge with the MWC, and build-up the hype for the new PAC-14 conference as you renegotiate media deals for the league in a newly fixed and lucrative market. 

I’d like to think your interpretation is correct, but Nevarez was clearly responding to a question regarding the timing of a decision on whether the scheduling agreement for the 2024 season will remain in force for the 2025 season.  No more, no less.

[nvspuds]

On 7/11/2024 at 2:34 PM, SteedLaw said:

Hmmm...despite what others have said above, that is exactly what I heard too. WSI and OSU are looking to make their decision in the next 4-6 weeks.

I know others will disagree, but I cannot for the life of me understand why OSU/WSU would want to wait until after the start of the season to announce their formal membership with the MWC or vice versa. 

At this juncture, the BIG XII and the ACC are 100% NOT coming for you -- end of story and full and complete stop. All you are doing by delaying the decision is hurting your programs, your coaches, and your athletes that (at least in substantial part) RELY GREATLY on conference affiliation and membership to earn accolades, succeed and grow. Neither of these programs have nationwide followings like ND or even Army or Navy. It is silly to think they have not waited too long already. 

Seriously, wait until January and there might not be much left of the men's Football and BB programs at either of these schools. 

Time to reverse merge with the MWC, and build-up the hype for the new PAC-14 conference as you renegotiate media deals for the league in a newly fixed and lucrative market. 

The President of WAZZU said they will probably announce their long term intentions in January or February 2025..  

What does the timeline for the Pac-12 look like in your mind?

I feel that in my conversations with (President) Jayathi Murthy at Oregon State, I think early in 2025, we’ve got to make a decision about where we’re going to be for the next four or five years. I don’t think we can continue having a foot in multiple conferences and hoping that something’s going to come our way. So I think we’re going to spend the fall planning, looking at our best options. And I think January-February, we’ve got to pick what we think is the best and aggressively move forward.
So that’s where we are in the timeline.

[alum93]

On 7/11/2024 at 3:34 PM, SteedLaw said:

Hmmm...despite what others have said above, that is exactly what I heard too. WSI and OSU are looking to make their decision in the next 4-6 weeks.

I know others will disagree, but I cannot for the life of me understand why OSU/WSU would want to wait until after the start of the season to announce their formal membership with the MWC or vice versa. 

At this juncture, the BIG XII and the ACC are 100% NOT coming for you -- end of story and full and complete stop. All you are doing by delaying the decision is hurting your programs, your coaches, and your athletes that (at least in substantial part) RELY GREATLY on conference affiliation and membership to earn accolades, succeed and grow. Neither of these programs have nationwide followings like ND or even Army or Navy. It is silly to think they have not waited too long already. 

Seriously, wait until January and there might not be much left of the men's Football and BB programs at either of these schools. 

Time to reverse merge with the MWC, and build-up the hype for the new PAC-14 conference as you renegotiate media deals for the league in a newly fixed and lucrative market. 

The why wait question is very simple.  They are hoping for a better conference in terms of money and overall quality of opponents than merging with the entire MWC.  You are correct in that it appears all other options are close to eliminated.  That is what is driving the delay.  B12 and ACC aren't calling.  That leaves a best of the rest which would result in multiple MWC teams being left out in the hopes that a better contract could be negotiated.  I would put the odds of that happening at close to zero, but that doesn't mean they are going to make sure there is zero chance before pulling the trigger on a full merger.  Give it to the spring and they most likely will announce they are joining the MWC teams and claim they are ecstatic at the opportunities the new and improved conference provides for the athletes and fans.  And it will be a sold western G5 conference for sure.  It just won't be a power conference, and therein lies the reason for the temporary delay.

[Gonzagafan2021]

On 7/11/2024 at 5:59 PM, nvspuds said:

The President of WAZZU said they will probably announce their long term intentions in January or February 2025..  

What does the timeline for the Pac-12 look like in your mind?

I feel that in my conversations with (President) Jayathi Murthy at Oregon State, I think early in 2025, we’ve got to make a decision about where we’re going to be for the next four or five years. I don’t think we can continue having a foot in multiple conferences and hoping that something’s going to come our way. So I think we’re going to spend the fall planning, looking at our best options. And I think January-February, we’ve got to pick what we think is the best and aggressively move forward.
So that’s where we are in the timeline.

They've been saying this for two years. They'll be in the MWC sooner than later

[nvspuds]

I don't think they have been saying this for 2 years.  The Pac imploded last summer.  As Gloria said yesterday, the MW will begin negotiating their new tv and streaming deals in mid 2025.  They would need to know by then who would be in the conference and more important who would not be in the conference at that point. If there is a merger of sorts or a full on poach effort, it would not be in the 2025/26 year.  Whatever the new entity may be it would go into effect in 26/27..

I think if they can extend the scheduling deal to include 25, that would be quite helpful but still not a sure thing that a  full merger is going to happen

[wolf from 73]

My guess is that they are already in discussions about a merger and in the next few months will be looking in depth at the financials, media deal, exit clause, legals and so forth. When January and February come around they will be ready to move forward and hit the ground running with a full merger if no better option emerges. They have to keep it quite and not leak any details of their discussions or any pending agreement for many liability reasons especially in regards to the departing Pac-12 schools and their settlement.

[Wyobraska]

On 7/11/2024 at 5:15 PM, nvspuds said:

I don't think they have been saying this for 2 years.  The Pac imploded last summer.  As Gloria said yesterday, the MW will begin negotiating their new tv and streaming deals in mid 2025.  They would need to know by then who would be in the conference and more important who would not be in the conference at that point. If there is a merger of sorts or a full on poach effort, it would not be in the 2025/26 year.  Whatever the new entity may be it would go into effect in 26/27..

I think if they can extend the scheduling deal to include 25, that would be quite helpful but still not a sure thing that a  full merger is going to happen

Full merger is definitely not a sure thing but I don't see how OSU and WSU can pay $67 million in penalties to the MW for poaching 6 teams.  

The cost to recoup that money would be a long time.  

[wolf from 73]

On 7/11/2024 at 4:47 PM, Wyobraska said:

Full merger is definitely not a sure thing but I don't see how OSU and WSU can pay $67 million in penalties to the MW for poaching 6 teams.  

The cost to recoup that money would be a long time.  

OSU and WSU paying $67 million would be more likely than the $17 or $34 million each MW team would have to pay in exit fees on top of that. Poaching 6 teams seems to be the most talked about so that would work out to about $170 or 270 million in total. It would seem there is 0 chance that would happen.                                                  "That contract includes major penalties for the Pac-2 taking MW teams before August 2027 — roughly $11 million per school, not to mention a $17 million exit fee for the departing MW member."                                                                                                                                                                          https://nevadasportsnet.com/newsletter-daily/why-mountain-west-hired-a-threatcasting-expert-to-predict-future-of-college-athletics#

[wolf from 73]

There are 0 schools in the MWC that can or would pay $17 million let alone $34 million to join another G-6 conference. If I am wrong I would like to know who could.

[jdgaucho]

UC Merced is joining the NCAA ranks.  NAIA this season, then D2 next season, eligible for the postseason in '26-'27.

Those UCM-Fresno games will be intense.

https://x.com/UCMercedBobcats/status/1811477342046634294?t=YScB6oiYQGp5Zi4jX_qBqQ&s=19

[Wyobraska]

On 7/11/2024 at 8:58 PM, jdgaucho said:

UC Merced is joining the NCAA ranks.  NAIA this season, then D2 next season, eligible for the postseason in '26-'27.

Those UCM-Fresno games will be intense.

https://x.com/UCMercedBobcats/status/1811477342046634294?t=YScB6oiYQGp5Zi4jX_qBqQ&s=19

Making their way to the Big West eventually?

[jdgaucho]

On 7/11/2024 at 7:59 PM, Wyobraska said:

Making their way to the Big West eventually?

 

The WAC. 

[Billings]

On 7/11/2024 at 8:09 PM, jdgaucho said:

 

The WAC. 

The WAC is toast

[Brew_Poke]

On 7/11/2024 at 5:15 PM, nvspuds said:

I don't think they have been saying this for 2 years.  The Pac imploded last summer.  As Gloria said yesterday, the MW will begin negotiating their new tv and streaming deals in mid 2025.  They would need to know by then who would be in the conference and more important who would not be in the conference at that point. If there is a merger of sorts or a full on poach effort, it would not be in the 2025/26 year.  Whatever the new entity may be it would go into effect in 26/27..

I think if they can extend the scheduling deal to include 25, that would be quite helpful but still not a sure thing that a  full merger is going to happen

Didn't the scheduling agreement have a clause that says Wazzup and ORST have to move to a merger as soon as possible? This dicking around ain't that.

[Brew_Poke]

On 7/11/2024 at 7:25 PM, wolf from 73 said:

There are 0 schools in the MWC that can or would pay $17 million let alone $34 million to join another G-6 conference. If I am wrong I would like to know who could.

SDSU would

[alum93]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/pac12/2024/07/11/pac-12-conference-oregon-state-washington-state-football/74362313007/?tbref=hp

“We’ve got a bar in the back,” Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould told the crowd. “Yes, we are drinking tonight during this event. And I would venture to say that if anybody has earned the right to drink, it is the Pac-12, OK?

The crowd laughed in response. Then came some tough questions, like what comes next.

[wolf from 73]

I see no way forward for the Pac-2 besides a full merger with the MW. It seems that's their one and only legitimate option at the moment. Kirk Schulz last week stated that WS had to make a decision soon about the direction they would pursue because of time constraints. He mentioned January or February as the dead line. If they were planning on a rebuild with MW teams that would involve costly and more importantly for them lengthy litigation that in the end they would probably lose or just pay-up $67 million and the departing 6 teams an additional $17- $34 million each. Other than that their only real hope would be to join a decimated ACC. It seems that at that point what is left of the ACC would rather look to add some schools from the East rather than the NW. It just makes more financial sense to stay as regional as possible. In any event that will probably not play out for a few year and the Pac-2 will be hemorrhaging money with no guarantees. That's a very high risk gamble that they would be foolish to make.

[Gasherbrum]

Coming from a Wazzu alum, I think a full MW merger makes the most sense. Would be very difficult to justify the steep exit penalties plus creating bad will from leaving some schools out - both Wazzu & OSU already know how this feels.  I'd be leery about joining up with a temporarily patched-up ACC - it'd be short-term and the league would likely look like that Cantina scene in Star Wars rather than a group of schools that actually look like they belong together. 

[Chalsean]

On 7/11/2024 at 5:47 PM, Wyobraska said:

Full merger is definitely not a sure thing but I don't see how OSU and WSU can pay $67 million in penalties to the MW for poaching 6 teams.  

The cost to recoup that money would be a long time.  

Not to mention that the 6 schools joining will have to want to drop a lot of $$ to go to a smaller conference, which I'm not sure anyone does in the current landscape.  Having the bare minimum # with 2 schools actively looking for the door is a recipe for disaster.  And lets be honest, theyre not exactly making friends trying to do to another conference what was done to them.  You'll straight up kneecap the remaining MWC schools as theres not 6 schools to backfill with or really even 2.  MWC may not survive to draw more from if OSU/WSU get lucky in 4-5 years.  No offense to OSU/WSU, they are fine institutions and I do hope they join.  But there's a lot of cost and risk in poaching.

[Spaztecs]

On 7/9/2024 at 7:02 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Most other conferences are dropping divisions so I suspect the MWC will do the same thing.