Conference Realignment thread

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 7/2/2024 at 1:52 PM, utenation said:

Poor UCF. Picked nowhere near the top of the conference. Another example of your pea brain. How can Utah be picked 1st? You told us that teams like Utah are part of West Coast “preseason bias” in the media and they fall apart. I guess Utah is also part of B12 preseason media bias? LMAO.

 

Vegas likes us more, and so do I.  

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 7/2/2024 at 6:39 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

And that (2023) was with USC, Oregon, Arizona and Oklahoma State on the home schedule. All solid, attractive opponents. This year they have Kansas, UCF, Ole Miss and Wyoming. Also Utah, who might travel some fans. Luckily they also get BYU, lots of LDS in the area, the game will draw but they will probably be visitors in their own stadium. 

I also believe ASU's attendance figures are as phony as a $3 bill, having seen thousands of empty seats on TV in games from Sun Devil Stadium. 

UCF travels very well out west, all games, but especially in cities.  I think Kansas does ok too.  

[Someone Else]

52 minutes ago, Wyobraska said:

I don't think any network would pay the necessary money for all of the exit fees.  It would take awhile to earn that money back when the difference between a rebuilt PAC 12 vs a reverse merger PAC 12 would be minimal to a network 

Certainly I'm just guessing so I could be wrong but I think those exit fees will all be negotiated down to something that makes sense for what i am suggesting.

[Wyobraska]

On 7/7/2024 at 11:10 PM, Someone Else said:

Certainly I'm just guessing so I could be wrong but I think those exit fees will all be negotiated down to something that makes sense for what i am suggesting.

You also have to start thinking about timelines as well.  The clock is ticking for the PAC 2 and going through a legal process will take time.  

[wolf from 73]

On 7/5/2024 at 9:14 PM, SteedLaw said:

There will be a reverse merger, but it won’t end there.

The ACC is also on the verge of total collapse.

My own total shoot-from-the-ass prediction:

1) The B1G expands to 20 teams (no more) — taking their long-coveted ND plus Stanford (whom ND has stated in the past is the only team they would head to the B1G with). 

2) FSU, Clemson, North Carolina and one other ACC program (not sure who) will head to the SEC. Thus, the SEC will become a 20 team league as well. 

3) Four other remaining ACC programs head to Big 12. Leaving 8 programs in the ACC. 

4) OSU, WSU, and Cal will join the PAC-15 with a MWC full reverse merger, now leaving 7 teams in the ACC.

5) Remaining 7 teams in the ACC will add Army, Navy, UConn, USF, Memphis, UTSA, Tulane, and one other program from the East Coast — probably either Old Dominion, North Texas, or JMU. Thus, moving the newly reconfigured ACC back to 15 teams.

6) PAC-15 (West Coast Mid-Major) and ACC (East Coast Mid-Major) will enter into a scheduling alliance together (East Coast vs. West Coast), thus keeping relevancy. They will also send their two conference champions to both a championship bowl game and the CFP — all other CFP seats (minus two) will go to the “power conferences”.

Ultimately, the FBS consists of three 20-team “power conferences” and two 15-team mid-major conferences — for a total of 90 relevant FBS teams across 5 relevant conferences (3 “power”, and 2 mid-major).

All other remaining conferences (MAC, CUSA, SunBelt, and AAC) and their remaining teams are officially out of FBS relevancy.

Thus, the powers that be reach their goal of shedding approximately 40-45 teams from FBS and consolidate viewership to just 5 conferences. 
 

Just how I think this is going down. 

 

This is the most likely outcome for the next realignment. However I think ND will continue as an independent as long as the money is there and I have no reason to think otherwise. As a result Stanford will go Indy until they can figure out a better situation and Cal will move into the MW along with OS and WS. After the major power moves I think the ACC could be down to 5 schools after 2 bolt to the BIG. 4 to the SEC and 4 to the Big-12. What's left of the ACC will quickly add JMU and Liberty then set their eyes on 7 AAC schools non of them in Texas. This will be a fight to the death for the loser of this fight. I think the remnant ACC will win and if they do the 3 Texas schools will be knocking on our door. The AAC will be literally reduced to C-USA 2.0 and 2.0 money. The Pac2 are not going to poach anybody and it will take this next year for them to come to that realization. They have been discarded and are now G5 and will soon have some more company.

[Wyobraska]

On 7/7/2024 at 11:50 PM, wolf from 73 said:

This is the most likely outcome for the next realignment. However I think ND will continue as an independent as long as the money is there and I have no reason to think otherwise. As a result Stanford will go Indy until they can figure out a better situation and Cal will move into the MW along with OS and WS. After the major power moves I think the ACC could be down to 5 schools after 2 bolt to the BIG. 4 to the SEC and 4 to the Big-12. What's left of the ACC will quickly add JMU and Liberty then set their eyes on 7 AAC schools non of them in Texas. This will be a fight to the death for the loser of this fight. I think the remnant ACC will win and if they do the 3 Texas schools will be knocking on our door. The AAC will be literally reduced to C-USA 2.0 and 2.0 money. The Pac2 are not going to poach anybody and it will take this next year for them to come to that realization. They have been discarded and are now G5 that will soon have some more company.

Cal and Stanford are wild cards to me.  I don't know if Stanford can stomach independence and I'm 99% sure Cal and Stanford can't stomach a conference that is essentially the MW.  What does that leave them?  

I do see the ACC getting picked apart by the other 3 P4s though like you.  

[SteedLaw]

On 7/8/2024 at 2:09 AM, Wyobraska said:

Cal and Stanford are wild cards to me.  I don't know if Stanford can stomach independence and I'm 99% sure Cal and Stanford can't stomach a conference that is essentially the MW.  What does that leave them?  

I do see the ACC getting picked apart by the other 3 P4s though like you.  

While I agree, my gut tells me Cal isn’t going to really have a choice.

Stanford would rather die than join the Big XII or the new PAC (which will largely be a reconfigured MWC with OSU and WSU added), as but both those conferences would be better options than a gutted and reconfigured ACC on the East Coast.

Ultimately, Stanford will have the option to join the Big 10 with ND. Cal will not have that same option.

Which means Cal can either maybe join the Big XII (and be the only school on the West Coast in that conference), or join the newly reconfigured PAC. My gut tells me they would rather pick the latter.

 

 

 

[Chalsean]

On 7/8/2024 at 7:34 AM, SteedLaw said:

While I agree, my gut tells me Cal isn’t going to really have a choice.

Stanford would rather die than join the Big XII or the new PAC (which will largely be a reconfigured MWC with OSU and WSU added), as but both those conferences would be better options than a gutted and reconfigured ACC on the East Coast.

Ultimately, Stanford will have the option to join the Big 10 with ND. Cal will not have that same option.

Which means Cal can either maybe join the Big XII (and be the only school on the West Coast in that conference), or join the newly reconfigured PAC. My gut tells me they would rather pick the latter.

There's a base assumption that Calford will keep football, which I'm not so sure.  They align more with Ivy League than they do any of the P4/G5.  I could see Cal throwing in the towel on football and parking their other sports with the other UC schools.

[wolf from 73]

On 7/8/2024 at 8:52 AM, Chalsean said:

There's a base assumption that Calford will keep football, which I'm not so sure.  They align more with Ivy League than they do any of the P4/G5.  I could see Cal throwing in the towel on football and parking their other sports with the other UC schools.

Cal has massive debt ( 441 mil ) as a result of building their stadium. Without football I don't see a way for them to retire that debt. We should see some decision of what direction the Pac-2 will go by Jan or Feb according to Kirk Schulz.  "And I think January-got to pick what we think is the best and aggressively move forward. So that’s where we are in the timeline." https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-washington-state-president

[sdsu1975]

On 7/7/2024 at 3:39 PM, Wyobraska said:

To where?

New PAC with OSU, WSU, SDSU, UNLV, CSU, Fresno State, Boise,  and others?

[utenation]

On 7/7/2024 at 10:26 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Vegas likes us more, and so do I.  

I’m still trying to figure out why Utah was picked so high? You’ve been telling me for years how bad they are. A few months ago, you told everyone we will only win 4 games. I guess the entire planet disagrees with you. 
 

And then, mysteriously Utah is getting B12 media bias after you told me, they get West Coast bias. 
 

You’d figure the B12 media would respect a “powerhouse” program like UCF much more than a bad Utah team that’s going to get killed in a conference that added 4 bad G5 schools out of desperation. All 4 finishing below.500. 

[Wyobraska]

On 7/8/2024 at 12:37 PM, sdsu1975 said:

New PAC with OSU, WSU, SDSU, UNLV, CSU, Fresno State, Boise,  and others?

How are schools going to pay their exit fees?  Will the PAC 2 pay the penalties in the recent MW agreement?  

Doesn't seem likely to me. 

[Chalsean]

On 7/8/2024 at 12:37 PM, sdsu1975 said:

New PAC with OSU, WSU, SDSU, UNLV, CSU, Fresno State, Boise,  and others?

UNM, UNR, USU are all good at bball.  MWC has been very good at bball lately.  I think it would not be wise to look through only a fball lens, see B12.  UW is all around good, only game in-town for the entire state.  Same for UH, who is also only 1 sport and pays to boot.  SJSU is the only iffy one but why leave 1 school out?  One in the bay area at that. 

The fball playoffs do not pay out more if you send a team.  It's a flat payment.  You only maximize people viewing your brand.  There's actually more incentive to maximize bball credits right now given the non-incentive around fball playoffs.  OSU/WSU are being short-sighted and in denial as to their new status.

[alum93]

On 7/8/2024 at 1:10 PM, Chalsean said:

UNM, UNR, USU are all good at bball.  MWC has been very good at bball lately.  I think it would not be wise to look through only a fball lens, see B12.  UW is all around good, only game in-town for the entire state.  Same for UH, who is also only 1 sport and pays to boot.  SJSU is the only iffy one but why leave 1 school out?  One in the bay area at that. 

The fball playoffs do not pay out more if you send a team.  It's a flat payment.  You only maximize people viewing your brand.  There's actually more incentive to maximize bball credits right now given the non-incentive around fball playoffs.  OSU/WSU are being short-sighted and in denial as to their new status.

Can anyone blame OSU and WSU for looking at every possible option?  In the chaos that was the last round of realignment, they were the 2 schools that were left for dead, ie G5 money vs P4 money.  Stanford and Cal had to buy their way into the ACC, a conference they have absolutely nothing in common with for their fans that actually buy the tickets and go to games.  And even that might end up being a temporary band aid depending on if the BiG/SEC find a way to poach their top teams.  So once OSU/WSU determine that in fact there is no contract that would justify paying exit fees for only half the MWC to join,  they should ultimately join with all MWC teams for a strong western G5 conference.  Coming to grips with the Grand Canyon size gap in contracts, especially in the days of NIL and instant transfer and play, is going to be rough.  Imagine the ADs that had built future budgets, justified infrastructure updates, based on playing USC, UCLA, Washington, Stanford, and now having to sell USU, Wyoming, UNM, and SJSU.  It's apples and oranges.  But that's where everything is headed.  The larger question for college sports in general is where does the gap in P4 (P3 if the ACC doesn't survive) vs G5 leave college football long term?  Does everyone stay together knowing the writing is on the wall and pretending there is real competition between the 2 levels, or does some form of sanity prevail and a split occur that benefits both parties long term.  As far as WSU and OSU, they were at the wrong place at the wrong time and there is literally nothing they could do once the BiG and SEC carved up the P!2 and B12.  If they somehow, some way, pull off a best of the rest conference, more power to them.  It certainly doesn't look like a realistic option though.  I also think their fans will enjoy being in the MWC, or whatever names it ends up, once the shock wears off that the big boys are never coming back.

[Shaker]

On 7/7/2024 at 5:58 PM, Wyobraska said:

A lawsuit against who?  What other options will there be for a conference to go to?

Like i said just what i would expect to happen but the teams (if any) that decide they want to leave will sue to try and lessen the amount of the buy-out. The MWC will counter sue to try and enforce the complete buy-out amount. 

I know people will say it is in the contract there is noway teams that want to leave have any grounds and wont win that they will end up paying the entire amount. 

 

[Gasherbrum]

Wazzu guy here, I also edit the NIL-NCAA site and have a heightened interest in this issue.

Really think the best move for WSU & OSU is a full reverse merger with the MW & pay zero exit fees. MW had several teams ranked in both football and basketball last year, I think the  conference would get decent media contracts and operate with reasonable budgets without drowning the AD in red ink.

If Wazzu & OSU get an invite from an imploded ACC they’ll likely have to agree to a zero revenue share for a number of years which will create huge operating  deficits. And for what benefit? Rutgers has run up $265 million in debt trying to compete in the Big Ten. Maryland & Nebraska booster contributions have sharply declined since they joined the Big Ten and they have unhappy fan bases.

Wazzu & OSU should learn from these other schools, the MW would be an excellent fit for both schools and most likely the best option financially.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CKS007]

On 7/7/2024 at 4:39 PM, Wyobraska said:

To where?

I hear the WAC is looking for schools. 

[Chalsean]

On 7/8/2024 at 11:05 PM, CKS007 said:

I hear the WAC is looking for schools. 

That brand has 9 lives

[Wyobraska]

On 7/8/2024 at 3:16 PM, Shaker said:

Like i said just what i would expect to happen but the teams (if any) that decide they want to leave will sue to try and lessen the amount of the buy-out. The MWC will counter sue to try and enforce the complete buy-out amount. 

I know people will say it is in the contract there is noway teams that want to leave have any grounds and wont win that they will end up paying the entire amount. 

 

You never know how a court case will go, but does the PAC 2 have time for those schools to go through a lawsuit?  

I think it will be tough for a school to gamble on what the outcome will be as well without a lot bigger payday in the PAC 2. 

I just don't see that being the case. 

[clydebeav]

On 7/8/2024 at 1:33 PM, alum93 said:

Can anyone blame OSU and WSU for looking at every possible option?  In the chaos that was the last round of realignment, they were the 2 schools that were left for dead, ie G5 money vs P4 money.  Stanford and Cal had to buy their way into the ACC, a conference they have absolutely nothing in common with for their fans that actually buy the tickets and go to games.  And even that might end up being a temporary band aid depending on if the BiG/SEC find a way to poach their top teams.  So once OSU/WSU determine that in fact there is no contract that would justify paying exit fees for only half the MWC to join,  they should ultimately join with all MWC teams for a strong western G5 conference.  Coming to grips with the Grand Canyon size gap in contracts, especially in the days of NIL and instant transfer and play, is going to be rough.  Imagine the ADs that had built future budgets, justified infrastructure updates, based on playing USC, UCLA, Washington, Stanford, and now having to sell USU, Wyoming, UNM, and SJSU.  It's apples and oranges.  But that's where everything is headed.  The larger question for college sports in general is where does the gap in P4 (P3 if the ACC doesn't survive) vs G5 leave college football long term?  Does everyone stay together knowing the writing is on the wall and pretending there is real competition between the 2 levels, or does some form of sanity prevail and a split occur that benefits both parties long term.  As far as WSU and OSU, they were at the wrong place at the wrong time and there is literally nothing they could do once the BiG and SEC carved up the P!2 and B12.  If they somehow, some way, pull off a best of the rest conference, more power to them.  It certainly doesn't look like a realistic option though.  I also think their fans will enjoy being in the MWC, or whatever names it ends up, once the shock wears off that the big boys are never coming back.

Excellent post. As a fan, I want the Beavers to play at the highest level possible so I’m supportive of exploring all options. That being said, I realize that there isn’t much hope of being called back up to the “big leagues” (financially speaking).

It looks like joining with the Mountain West (in whatever form that is) is by far the most probable outcome. Once that is set in stone, our fan base will just adjust to it. I think that it’s a great fit culturally and we could form some great regional rivalries. Feels like we already have that with Boise and Fresno to some extent.