Conference Realignment thread

[Wyobraska]

On 7/6/2024 at 3:38 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

He conveniently fails to mention that Boise State is fifth in spending among those "top five" with an annual athletic budget that's $10 million short of the suggested $60 million floor.  That would be a lot to make up to participate in a reverse merger, especially if the incremental increase in TV revenue was only $3-4 million per year.  Moreover Fresno State is $13.5 million short (behind both Hawaii and Wyoming).  If a floor were established I think it would have to be lower than $60 million to secure the schools the Pac most covets.

Canzano is a clown who just churns out articles. 

[Chalsean]

On 7/6/2024 at 8:38 PM, Johnny Idol said:

• There’s a considerable expense involved in a Pac-12 rebuild, particularly if it involves trying to poach MWC schools. The exit fee is $17 million per school and that comes with an additional $10 million (approximate) per school “poaching penalty” for the Pac-12.

• The Pac-12 has earmarked approximately $65 million in settlement funds for a possible rebuild. That would cover the penalties for six MWC schools.

 

The poaching fee for 6 schools is $67.5 million by itself, then its $17 million per school with more than a years notice (before August 2025..?).  That's $169.5 million.  Unless they expect the 6 joining members to pay their own exit fees, which good luck.  With this cute minimum athletic budget then BSU would need to fork out $10 million more every year for the pleasure of being in a conference with OSU/WSU.  f* that and f* them

I'm actually starting to wonder what incentive there is for MWC schools to go to the P12.  They obviously are not sharing their "war chest", so why reverse merge?  Yeah OSU/WSU dont get to keep their money but theyre not sharing it so..?  Whats in it for us?

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 7/6/2024 at 4:58 PM, Chalsean said:

I'm actually starting to wonder what incentive there is for MWC schools to go to the P12.  They obviously are not sharing their "war chest", so why reverse merge?  Yeah OSU/WSU dont get to keep their money but theyre not sharing it so..?  Whats in it for us?

Hopefully a bigger per-school TV deal payout, but the gain probably wouldn't be significant.

So far there's no indication that by themselves OSU and WSU are worth even $10 million per year per school to the networks.  But let's assume they are worth that much.  Let's also assume the MWC without OSU and WSU could land a raise in 2026 to $6 million in TV money per year per school (comparable to what AAC schools are now earning).  In that scenario, a merged MWC/PAC with OSU and WSU should theoretically be able to get a TV deal in 2026 worth $6.6 million per year per school.  Uh... hallelujah?

Here's the math:

12 x $6M/yr = $72M/yr

2 x $10M/yr = $20M/yr

$72M/yr + $20M/yr = $92M/yr

$92M/yr divided by 14 schools = $6.6M/yr/school

Since we're on a roll, let's do a little more math.  Assume as we did before that OSU and WSU are each worth $10 million per year to the networks.  Also assume that the six most valuable MWC schools are each worth $8 million per year, while the rest of us slobs are each worth only $4 million per year.  Finally, assume that OSU and WSU decide to invite only the six most valuable MWC schools into the Pac instead of having to slum it with everyone in a reverse merger, and those six schools accept.

In that scenario, the elite new "best of the rest" Pac should theoretically be able to get a TV deal in 2026 worth $8.5 million per year per school:

6 x $8M/yr = $48M/yr

2 x $10M/yr = $20M/yr

$48M/yr + $20M/yr = $68M/yr

$68M/yr divided by 8 schools = $8.5M/yr/school

So OSU and WSU would each give up nearly $34 million in poaching penalties, and the defecting MWC schools would each pay $17 million in exit fees, for the privilege of earning annual TV payouts that would gain each of them less than $2 million per year more than what they would have earned by agreeing to a zero-penalty zero-fee reverse merger of the entire MWC into the Pac.

It's hard to imagine any fiscally responsible university administration choosing that option.

[Nevada Convert]

On 7/6/2024 at 11:05 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Hopefully a bigger per-school TV deal payout, but the gain probably wouldn't be significant.

So far there's no indication that by themselves OSU and WSU are worth even $10 million per year per school to the networks.  But let's assume they are worth that much.  Let's also assume the MWC without OSU and WSU could land a raise in 2026 to $6 million in TV money per year per school (comparable to what AAC schools are now earning).  In that scenario, a merged MWC/PAC with OSU and WSU should theoretically be able to get a TV deal in 2026 worth $6.6 million per year per school.  Uh... hallelujah?

Here's the math:

12 x $6M/yr = $72M/yr

2 x $10M/yr = $20M/yr

$72M/yr + $20M/yr = $92M/yr

$92M/yr divided by 14 schools = $6.6M/yr/school

Since we're on a roll, let's do a little more math.  Assume as we did before that OSU and WSU are each worth $10 million per year to the networks.  Also assume that the six most valuable MWC schools are each worth $8 million per year, while the rest of us slobs are each worth only $4 million per year.  Finally, assume that OSU and WSU decide to invite only the six most valuable MWC schools into the Pac instead of having to slum it with everyone in a reverse merger, and those six schools accept.

In that scenario, the elite new "best of the rest" Pac should theoretically be able to get a TV deal in 2026 worth $8.5 million per year per school:

6 x $8M/yr = $48M/yr

2 x $10M/yr = $20M/yr

$48M/yr + $20M/yr = $68M/yr

$68M/yr divided by 8 schools = $8.5M/yr/school

So OSU and WSU would each give up nearly $34 million in poaching penalties, and the defecting MWC schools would each pay $17 million in exit fees, for the privilege of earning annual TV payouts that would gain each of them less than $2 million per year more than what they would have earned by agreeing to a zero-penalty zero-fee reverse merger of the entire MWC into the Pac.

It's hard to imagine any fiscally responsible university administration choosing that option.

With inflation the way it’s been since our last TV deal, I think a reverse merger would bring in at least $10 mil per school. Adding the twins is really going to add to regional rivalries. 

But just as important, we need to add mandatory minimums to maintain conference membership. It’s an absolute must, and it’s key to improved conference success. 

[Wyobraska]

On 7/6/2024 at 8:58 PM, Chalsean said:

The poaching fee for 6 schools is $67.5 million by itself, then its $17 million per school with more than a years notice (before August 2025..?).  That's $169.5 million.  Unless they expect the 6 joining members to pay their own exit fees, which good luck.  With this cute minimum athletic budget then BSU would need to fork out $10 million more every year for the pleasure of being in a conference with OSU/WSU.  f* that and f* them

I'm actually starting to wonder what incentive there is for MWC schools to go to the P12.  They obviously are not sharing their "war chest", so why reverse merge?  Yeah OSU/WSU dont get to keep their money but theyre not sharing it so..?  Whats in it for us?

I think WSU and OSU will be good additions to the MW.  It helps strengthen the conference and they fit the academic profile of most of the member institutions in the MW.  They will help bring in more eyeballs and they fit the geographic footprint of the conference.  I like that they help keep the MW regional.  

That being said, I don't think the MW should agree to any special deals with them though and everyone from the conference goes, full stop.  

I don't think there is a chance that they can cherry pick schools from the MW and if they try I hope they are told to +++++ off.  

[smithy]

I too believe a full reverse merger would be beneficial...that brings the numbers up to 14...while other conferences are looking at 20. So numbers alone is needed to compete. The PAC/MW will also need to add more to keep up, otherwise the AAC will merge with say the SBC/CUSA and we will be on the short end unless we go the Big Sky route. That 60mil threshold can be achievable when we get a new media deal in a few years but right now it's really hard meet. And don't count on the ACC being a savior since the P4 will gobble up a lot of them if they dissolve.

[since1670]

It's not easy for members of the MWC to wait until officials of OSU and WSU finally accept the positions they are in.

They are dead without merging with MWC schools. The MWC is not dead without OSU and WSU. That alone shows the immense leverage the MWC has over those two schools.

This is similar to the 5 Stages of Grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally acceptance. It taking considerable time for OSU and WSU officials to accept reality. They may now be in the bargaining stage. They will panic some time soon.
The MWC officials need to react to any attempt at cherry picking 6 or more MWC schools. Inviting a couple of schools is often done. But MWC officials should hint at interference if they try to take 6. MWC officials could charge interference as losing 6 of the MWC top programs would be close to destroying the conference. That hint would have them scurying like scared rabbits and time would be running out.

[Spaztecs]

On 7/4/2024 at 8:03 AM, Chalsean said:

If we do reverse merger I hope we bring back divisions

This:

I personally like a 9 game Conference Schedule as well.

[sdsu1975]

SDSU and a few others need to get out of the MWC and away from the slacker schools that do not provide squat to the conference.

[Wyobraska]

On 7/7/2024 at 4:31 PM, sdsu1975 said:

SDSU and a few others need to get out of the MWC and away from the slacker schools that do not provide squat to the conference.

To where?

[Shaker]

Dont know what will happen, just expecting The schools that might leave are going to see what kind of tv deal they are going to get and if it isnt what they think it should be there will be a huge law suite, then it will be anybodies guess on how the courts will decide

[Wyobraska]

On 7/7/2024 at 5:48 PM, Shaker said:

Dont know what will happen, just expecting The schools that might leave are going to see what kind of tv deal they are going to get and if it isnt what they think it should be there will be a huge law suite, then it will be anybodies guess on how the courts will decide

A lawsuit against who?  What other options will there be for a conference to go to?

[NorthWestCowboy]

On 7/2/2024 at 7:19 PM, UofMTigers said:

Memphis is still hoping 4+ chairs open up in the ACC. 

I still think whatever meat the SEC and B1G leave on the ACC bone will largely get eaten by the Big XII.

[NorthWestCowboy]

On 7/5/2024 at 9:14 PM, SteedLaw said:

There will be a reverse merger, but it won’t end there.

The ACC is also on the verge of total collapse.

My own total shoot-from-the-ass prediction:

1) The B1G expands to 20 teams (no more) — taking their long-coveted ND plus Stanford (whom ND has stated in the past is the only team they would head to the B1G with). 

2) FSU, Clemson, North Carolina and one other ACC program (not sure who) will head to the SEC. Thus, the SEC will become a 20 team league as well. 

3) Four other remaining ACC programs head to Big 12. Leaving 8 programs in the ACC. 

4) OSU, WSU, and Cal will join the PAC-15 with a MWC full reverse merger, now leaving 7 teams in the ACC.

5) Remaining 7 teams in the ACC will add Army, Navy, UConn, USF, Memphis, UTSA, Tulane, and one other program from the East Coast — probably either Old Dominion, North Texas, or JMU. Thus, moving the newly reconfigured ACC back to 15 teams.

6) PAC-15 (West Coast Mid-Major) and ACC (East Coast Mid-Major) will enter into a scheduling alliance together (East Coast vs. West Coast), thus keeping relevancy. They will also send their two conference champions to both a championship bowl game and the CFP — all other CFP seats (minus two) will go to the “power conferences”.

Ultimately, the FBS consists of three 20-team “power conferences” and two 15-team mid-major conferences — for a total of 90 relevant FBS teams across 5 relevant conferences (3 “power”, and 2 mid-major).

All other remaining conferences (MAC, CUSA, SunBelt, and AAC) and their remaining teams are officially out of FBS relevancy.

Thus, the powers that be reach their goal of shedding approximately 40-45 teams from FBS and consolidate viewership to just 5 conferences. 
 

Just how I think this is going down. 

 

The B1G absolutely wants and needs to get a foothold into the SEC for recruiting and exposure.  There is no way AAU member Miami is not snatched up by the B1G when the ACC gets plundered.  I personally think the B1G is not opposed to growing up to 24 teams and then creating four 6-team divisions to protect historic rivalries and regional travel for the Oly's.  Why you ask?  Well the economies and population of the Midwest and Northeast states are not growing nearly as fast as the mid-Atlantic, southeast and west.  The B1G already snatched up the prime properties in the west and are now looking south.  Getting growing markets in the mid-Atlantic and southeast is very important to keeping pace with the SEC.

[Spaztecs]

On 7/7/2024 at 6:45 PM, NorthWestCowboy said:

I still think whatever meat the SEC and B1G leave on the ACC bone will largely get eaten by the Big XII.

The ACC will have 5-6 refugees. I'm guessing Wake, BC, Va Tech, SMU and Cal.

[NorthWestCowboy]

On 7/7/2024 at 6:19 PM, Spaztecs said:

The ACC will have 5-6 refugees. I'm guessing Wake, BC, Va Tech, SMU and Cal.

How funny would it be if the Big XII invited all of these except SMU!  Death Penalty 2.0!

[Someone Else]

Seems kind of obvious but the network will be the one making the decision here.  My expectation is the regardless of the exit fees and money the P2 agreed to pay for taking MW members, there will not be a full merger because that is not what the network wants. 

They don't want a 13 team conference made of almost all entirely small market teams. The network will negotiate and dictate terms of a new PAc conference that will include only some of the MW schools. jmo

[Brew_Poke]

On 7/7/2024 at 9:30 PM, Someone Else said:

Seems kind of obvious but the network will be the one making the decision here.  My expectation is the regardless of the exit fees and money the P2 agreed to pay for taking MW members, there will not be a full merger because that is not what the network wants. 

They don't want a 13 team conference made of almost all entirely small market teams. The network will negotiate and dictate terms of a new PAc conference that will include only some of the MW schools. jmo

What network?

[Someone Else]

23 minutes ago, Brew_Poke said:

What network?

What ever network that decides to pick them up.  Likely CBS Sports because that's the current MWC network, I'd guess.  It's essentially the same thing that has been happening at the larger conferences... add schools and eliminate schools based on what the network dictates.

[Wyobraska]

On 7/7/2024 at 10:12 PM, Someone Else said:

What ever network that decides to pick them up.  Likely CBS Sports because that's the current MWC network, I'd guess.  It's essentially the same thing that has been happening at the larger conferences... add schools and eliminate schools based on what the network dictates.

I don't think any network would pay the necessary money for all of the exit fees.  It would take awhile to earn that money back when the difference between a rebuilt PAC 12 vs a reverse merger PAC 12 would be minimal to a network