Conference Realignment thread

[Billings]

On 6/23/2024 at 12:56 PM, Destiny Dutch said:

According to Flugaur, the SEC may be eyeing going to 20 with 4 ACC schools. Then the Big Ten and Big 12 would eat.

https://x.com/flugempire/status/1804941263310880926

 

who?

[CKS007]

On 6/23/2024 at 5:10 PM, Billings said:

who?

You know, some guy making a video in his car.  The true quality of all experts on the internet.

 

 

[SteedLaw]

On 6/4/2024 at 6:24 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

Bullseye. The schools to be shown the door are Hawaii (through no fault of its own), SJSU (to its discredit because the Spartans have terrible facilities and haven't accomplished anything as MWC members except have a few fair football seasons), and Nevada (which won 60% of its games under Chris Ault but just 44% of them immediately preceding Ault and since he retired and, at 77, the guy isn't coming back for a third go-round plus their stadium is as bad as UNR's).

I come back here many months later…only to find we are still discussing the same thing.

Guys, NOBODY is leaving! We are talking tens of millions in exit fees…per school. Plus, tens of millions more in additional penalty fees to a new “PAC”. 

I mean, how are we still talking about this? It is 99 percent certain that OSU/WSU are either joining us, or we are ALL joining them — just that simple, folks.

[jdgaucho]

[SteedLaw]

 

WSU president interview by John Canzano. 

Canzano: Washington State President Kirk Schulz speaks out in 1-on-1 (johncanzano.com)

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 6/27/2024 at 4:32 PM, SteedLaw said:

 

 

WSU president interview by John Canzano. 

Canzano: Washington State President Kirk Schulz speaks out in 1-on-1 (johncanzano.com)

Interesting.  Schulz is careful not to rule out any option for what direction the Pac might choose to go next year, with respect to a merger or reverse merger with another conference, or a rebuild that brings in selected schools from other conferences.  However he's pretty clear on how he thinks spending from the Pac's war chest should be prioritized.

He says the money should be used first and foremost to shield WSU's athletic department (and presumably OSU's as well) from massive budget cuts in the next couple of years.  He notes that some will also be needed to pay the conference's pending financial obligations.  Setting aside cash to "buy" new Pac members as part of a future rebuild is less important in his view.

[Wyobraska]

On 6/27/2024 at 10:54 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Interesting.  Schulz is careful not to rule out any option for what direction the Pac might choose to go next year, with respect to a merger or reverse merger with another conference, or a rebuild that brings in selected schools from other conferences.  However he's pretty clear on how he thinks spending from the Pac's war chest should be prioritized.

He says the money should be used first and foremost to shield WSU's athletic department (and presumably OSU's as well) from massive budget cuts in the next couple of years.  He notes that some will also be needed to pay the conference's pending financial obligations.  Setting aside cash to "buy" new Pac members as part of a future rebuild is less important in his view.

When you are trying to go from their old PAC 12 budget to their new MWC level budget it is the only sensible move.  You can't pay millions for other schools when your payout for the new conference wouldn't be much different than doing a merger with the MW.  

They will need every dime they can get their hands on to soften the blow of being demoted to a G5 school.  

[smithy]

Supposedly WSU is really in debt so that will be their priority...most likely most of their share is already spent.  Not so much for OSU...but they just redone Reser so that is that. Sounds like they really don't want to spend a dime on paying exit fees and just waiting for the time to merge as the option to go, unless someone comes calling.

[Spaztecs]

On 6/27/2024 at 11:47 PM, Wyobraska said:

When you are trying to go from their old PAC 12 budget to their new MWC level budget it is the only sensible move.  You can't pay millions for other schools when your payout for the new conference wouldn't be much different than doing a merger with the MW.  

They will need every dime they can get their hands on to soften the blow of being demoted to a G5 school.  

 

[Gasherbrum]

New to the board here. I'm a Wazzu alum but also edit a couple of web sites on intercollegiate athletics so I have a somewhat heightened interest in what happens with the Pac-2.

While Wazzu & OSU are currently keeping their options open (primarily to see if the ACC partially collapses and is reformed with a West Coast division including Cal & Stanford) I think the best way forward long-term is for the Pac-2 to add/merge with the entire MW and avoid any exit fees.

I think this new conference would do well from a revenue standpoint which we address on one of our NIL Collective pages. But revenue is only part of the financial picture, having a financially healthy athletic department is key and this means also controlling costs - switching conferences solely to chase TV contract revenues can backfire and result in terrible financial results. 

Rutgers has run up $ 265 million in debt trying to keep up their Big-Ten competitors while both Nebraska and Maryland have had steep drop-offs in booster financial support and enthusiasm due to their blah to dismal on-field results in the Big Ten. This should be a warning to the 4 Pac-12 schools joining the Big Ten this year. If they go from perennial Pac-12 championship contenders to mid to lower members of a mid-west conference, this isn't going to go over well with their boosters. And with the exception of Oregon, the Pac-12 schools are at a big disadvantage in NIL Collective fundraising. 

With the coming big changes in college athletics, a combined Pac-2/MW would have somewhat of a nothing to lose perspective and can really think outside the box financially.  Make some unique deals with streaming platforms on the revenue side. On the cost side, once the NCAA revenue sharing agreement is implemented, eliminate outside NIL collectives and if possible substitute enhanced Alston payments (athletes would still receive legitimate NIL), maybe even cap total football staff salaries.  You could have a highly competitive league that doesn't break the bank.

I hope a Pac-2/MW conference is the end result. Financially I think it will be the best option long-term, and also result in much more interesting rivalries. I'd be much more interested in seeing Wazzu playing San Diego State or Boise State rather than Memphis or Tulane.  Conferences assembled for the sole purposes of TV contracts will result in leagues looking more like the Star Wars cantina scene rather than a group of schools that actually look like they belong together.

 

 

 

 

[SteedLaw]

On 6/28/2024 at 9:00 AM, Gasherbrum said:

New to the board here. I'm a Wazzu alum but also edit a couple of web sites on intercollegiate athletics so I have a somewhat heightened interest in what happens with the Pac-2.

While Wazzu & OSU are currently keeping their options open (primarily to see if the ACC partially collapses and is reformed with a West Coast division including Cal & Stanford) I think the best way forward long-term is for the Pac-2 to add/merge with the entire MW and avoid any exit fees.

I think this new conference would do well from a revenue standpoint which we address on one of our NIL Collective pages. But revenue is only part of the financial picture, having a financially healthy athletic department is key and this means also controlling costs - switching conferences solely to chase TV contract revenues can backfire and result in terrible financial results. 

Rutgers has run up $ 265 million in debt trying to keep up their Big-Ten competitors while both Nebraska and Maryland have had steep drop-offs in booster financial support and enthusiasm due to their blah to dismal on-field results in the Big Ten. This should be a warning to the 4 Pac-12 schools joining the Big Ten this year. If they go from perennial Pac-12 championship contenders to mid to lower members of a mid-west conference, this isn't going to go over well with their boosters. And with the exception of Oregon, the Pac-12 schools are at a big disadvantage in NIL Collective fundraising. 

With the coming big changes in college athletics, a combined Pac-2/MW would have somewhat of a nothing to lose perspective and can really think outside the box financially.  Make some unique deals with streaming platforms on the revenue side. On the cost side, once the NCAA revenue sharing agreement is implemented, eliminate outside NIL collectives and if possible substitute enhanced Alston payments (athletes would still receive legitimate NIL), maybe even cap total football staff salaries.  You could have a highly competitive league that doesn't break the bank.

I hope a Pac-2/MW conference is the end result. Financially I think it will be the best option long-term, and also result in much more interesting rivalries. I'd be much more interested in seeing Wazzu playing San Diego State or Boise State rather than Memphis or Tulane.  Conferences assembled for the sole purposes of TV contracts will result in leagues looking more like the Star Wars cantina scene rather than a group of schools that actually look like they belong together.

 

 

 

 

Welcome to the board!

I think most of us here are in the same boat — hoping this merger goes through. I also agree that this new PAC 14 could be set up in a way to do far better than people are claiming it would. Most areas of the West where these teams are located are growing very rapidly; and the networks look at trends, not just past statistics. 
 

And, I have said it before, but I can’t think of better schools to join up with than Wazzu and OSU. They are large, business, public land-grants and are the biggest games in their respective communities, similar to a lot of existing MwC teams. They are also hard-working and scrappy and ready to prove themselves on a national level, also like a lot of MwC teams. 
 

And, vice versa, I think OSU and WSU will find the MWC schools far more collaborative and congenial and committed than the old PAC schools. The MwC is now officially the most stable conference in FBS outside of the P2. And, I don’t see that dynamic changing. 
 

 

[Gasherbrum]

Totally agree. And while both Wazzu & OSU are located in small college towns, over half of their current students and alumni come from two large metropolitan areas - Seattle & Portland. The MW already has an established presence in several West Coast metro areas, so this combination would be attractive to TV/Media providers especially with the decline in P5 west coast games with the departure of the ten Pac-12 schools to mid-west and east coast conferences.  Hope it works out.

 

 

[alum93]

https://athlonsports.com/college/stanford-cardinal/inside-cardinal/football/potential-pac-12-expansion-candidates-identified-ahead-of-possible-attempted-rebuild#gid=ci02e1059c3000251d&pid=the-maybes

If it does come to a Pac-12 rebuild, I expect the two-member conference to keep things on the lean side. Forget all that ‘strength in numbers’ stuff. That’s for other conferences. The consistent scenarios I’ve heard for the Pac-12 typically include only 8-9 total members.

[Chalsean]

On 7/1/2024 at 8:10 AM, alum93 said:

https://athlonsports.com/college/stanford-cardinal/inside-cardinal/football/potential-pac-12-expansion-candidates-identified-ahead-of-possible-attempted-rebuild#gid=ci02e1059c3000251d&pid=the-maybes

If it does come to a Pac-12 rebuild, I expect the two-member conference to keep things on the lean side. Forget all that ‘strength in numbers’ stuff. That’s for other conferences. The consistent scenarios I’ve heard for the Pac-12 typically include only 8-9 total members.

Fresno State not being in the list of sure locks makes the entire thing sus.  Also has UNLV as a "maybe", wtf.  All that tells me is that Canzano doesnt know what hes talking about..  again.

[alum93]

On 7/1/2024 at 9:04 AM, Chalsean said:

Fresno State not being in the list of sure locks makes the entire thing sus.  Also has UNLV as a "maybe", wtf.  All that tells me is that Canzano doesnt know what hes talking about..  again.

I've always felt a best of the rest is a long shot.  I think a full merger is still the most likely outcome.  

[Wyobraska]

On 7/1/2024 at 8:10 AM, alum93 said:

https://athlonsports.com/college/stanford-cardinal/inside-cardinal/football/potential-pac-12-expansion-candidates-identified-ahead-of-possible-attempted-rebuild#gid=ci02e1059c3000251d&pid=the-maybes

If it does come to a Pac-12 rebuild, I expect the two-member conference to keep things on the lean side. Forget all that ‘strength in numbers’ stuff. That’s for other conferences. The consistent scenarios I’ve heard for the Pac-12 typically include only 8-9 total members.

 

On 7/1/2024 at 9:04 AM, Chalsean said:

Fresno State not being in the list of sure locks makes the entire thing sus.  Also has UNLV as a "maybe", wtf.  All that tells me is that Canzano doesnt know what hes talking about..  again.

Until proven otherwise Canzano is no more credible than anyone on the MW board.  During the PAC 12 drama he was consistently wrong and I'm convinced he doesn't even care about being correct, he just wants page views.  

Dude is trash.  

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 7/1/2024 at 4:10 AM, alum93 said:

https://athlonsports.com/college/stanford-cardinal/inside-cardinal/football/potential-pac-12-expansion-candidates-identified-ahead-of-possible-attempted-rebuild#gid=ci02e1059c3000251d&pid=the-maybes

If it does come to a Pac-12 rebuild, I expect the two-member conference to keep things on the lean side. Forget all that ‘strength in numbers’ stuff. That’s for other conferences. The consistent scenarios I’ve heard for the Pac-12 typically include only 8-9 total members.

The thing about the "all that 'strength in numbers' stuff" is that, while it may not matter at all to OSU and WSU, it will certainly matter to any schools that choose to invest millions of dollars in exit fees for the privilege of joining a BOR Pac.

Those other schools aren't stupid.  They know that despite a Pac rebuild, OSU and WSU will continue their relentless pursuit of P4 invitations, and will leave the Pac without hesitation if those invitations are offered.  They also know that if OSU and WSU leave, the Pac's TV deal will be cut, and the inducement for more G5 schools to pay millions of dollars in exit fees to join them in the Pac will be significantly diminished.  In short, a geographically dispersed Pac that falls below the 8-member FBS minimum and is back to making poverty wages will be of danger of collapsing a second time, and they will want to make sure that scenario can't materialize.

For that reason I don't see a "lean side" BOR rebuild happening.  Before agreeing to sign on, I expect schools approached to join a BOR Pac to insist on an absolute minimum membership of 10 schools, and more likely 12.  They would be foolish not to, even if the consequence is that a BOR Pac rebuild can't get off the ground.

[utgrizfan]

On 7/1/2024 at 8:10 AM, alum93 said:

https://athlonsports.com/college/stanford-cardinal/inside-cardinal/football/potential-pac-12-expansion-candidates-identified-ahead-of-possible-attempted-rebuild#gid=ci02e1059c3000251d&pid=the-maybes

If it does come to a Pac-12 rebuild, I expect the two-member conference to keep things on the lean side. Forget all that ‘strength in numbers’ stuff. That’s for other conferences. The consistent scenarios I’ve heard for the Pac-12 typically include only 8-9 total members.

First and foremost I think a full merger is the most likely scenario. Outside that a few things about this list need some changes:

-Memphis is to far East initially, if they are able to poach and get a TV deal the $$ probably won't justify that kind of travel. Down the road if they expand again then maybe.

-Air Force would probably have to be a Football only Pick and even then I don't see them getting in over different markets (CSU brings Colorado).

What I see happening initially:

OSU............UNLV

WAZZU.......CSU

BSU.............WYO/Hawaii/UNM/USU

Fresno.........UTSA

SDSU............RICE/UNT

Something like this I feel is much more likely at least initially as it gives you a good variety of different and large/decent sized markets and by limiting eastern travel to Texas saves a bit on Travel Costs. 

-If going to is Mandatory (as Mongoose mentioned) could add 2 from the options I've already listed, UNT in my mind definitely being one of them.

I personally hope this happens so both Montana and MSU could get a shot to get called up. For example let's say UNT and Hawaii get picked in the above scenario:

SJSU...............Montana

Nevada...........MSU

USU................New Mexico 

WYO...............NMSU

Air Force........UTEP

Other Options if wanting to get to 12: NDSU, SDSU, Sac State, UC-Davis, Idaho

I know this idea is gross to some on here but I think it'd be a solid new MWC.

[Gasherbrum]

Full merger is the easiest to accomplish, avoids $ 75 million or so in exit fees, and results in a cohesive conference with fast growing media markets in 9 western states. 

[utenation]

On 1/17/2024 at 2:26 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

 but I only see 4 conference wins on your schedule next season, and that’s assuming Arizona falls apart. 

Poor UCF. Picked nowhere near the top of the conference. Another example of your pea brain. How can Utah be picked 1st? You told us that teams like Utah are part of West Coast “preseason bias” in the media and they fall apart. I guess Utah is also part of B12 preseason media bias? LMAO.