Conference Realignment thread

[utgrizfan]

On 4/1/2024 at 2:21 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

You realize the Pac-2's income is not limited to what Wilner detailed. It will also have income from their TV contract, home gate receipts, road-game guarantees from opponents other than the MWC, booster donations, state appropriations ($10 million for OSU), etc? Income will far surpass $79 million. 

Still won't be enough to afford 6 MWC schools (the required number for the PAC to continue as a Conference) especially with the penalty fee. Would be improbable to even snag 3 MWC and 3 current lower paid (CUSA 6) AAC schools by adding in that additional income.

[Spaztecs]

On 3/25/2024 at 10:30 AM, RSF said:

None of which has anything to do with athletics.  Tulsa is far from poor either.  Big endowment for such a small school.  And both Syracuse and Iowa State left the AAU for the same reason Nebraska did - shifting membership criteria.

 

Yes it does, and no they dont.  Schools dont make NIL deals.

Their Alumni and fanbase do.

Texas, tOSU, Bama, etc., loads of wealthy alumni and wealthy fans.

New Mexico State, not so much.

[RSF]

On 4/1/2024 at 3:21 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

You realize the Pac-2's income is not limited to what Wilner detailed. It will also have income from their TV contract, home gate receipts, road-game guarantees from opponents other than the MWC, booster donations, state appropriations ($10 million for OSU), etc? Income will far surpass $79 million. 

 

 

what tv contract?

[utgrizfan]

On 4/1/2024 at 2:46 PM, RSF said:

 

 

what tv contract?

Probably anticipating a decent number if they approach CW/CBS/FOX with desired MWC and AAC schools, no way the current CW alone deal won't be enough but even then I don't think they'd be able to afford it, especially with the poaching fee.

[Beaver-Poke]

On 4/1/2024 at 1:43 PM, utgrizfan said:

Still won't be enough to afford 6 MWC schools (the required number for the PAC to continue as a Conference) especially with the penalty fee. Would be improbable to even snag 3 MWC and 3 current lower paid (CUSA 6) AAC schools by adding in that additional income.

I'm not saying they will even attempt to buy anyone out. Just saying that those income numbers do not come close to painting an accurate financial picture.

[Billings]

On 4/1/2024 at 1:21 PM, Beaver-Poke said:

You realize the Pac-2's income is not limited to what Wilner detailed. It will also have income from their TV contract, home gate receipts, road-game guarantees from opponents other than the MWC, booster donations, state appropriations ($10 million for OSU), etc? Income will far surpass $79 million. 

YEs but the if you look at the TV details on the other summary running the PAC 2 network for CW may be an over all loser.  They are fine for two years and then the bottom falls out.  A lot of people don't think they get the Rose Bowl payout of $50 million.  That would be a huge hit if true.

 

Wilmer also stated it was the 4 main sources of income not the only ones.

[azgreg]

 

[WAC_FAN]

On 4/1/2024 at 5:14 PM, Billings said:

 A lot of people don't think they get the Rose Bowl payout of $50 million.  That would be a huge hit if true.

 

The Rose Bowl could sue and have a shot (although damages are hard to prove since the quality of their game won't be affected being that they are hosting CFP) but probably won't.

[818SUDSFan]

It gets clearer and clearer that OSU/WSU aren't going to be able to raid THE Mountain West Conference alone. 

The P-2's only chance is for Cal and Stanford to be forced to return and for the B12 presidents to go temporarily insane and hire George Kliavkoff to be their commissioner.

[RSF]

People are missing an important point.

 

Pac12 no longer has an affiliation with the Rose Bowl due to the CFP expansion.  Same goes for the other contract bowls.  The money from this past Rose Bowl game will be part of the final conference distibution.

[jdgaucho]

On 4/1/2024 at 5:54 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

It gets clearer and clearer that OSU/WSU aren't going to be able to raid THE Mountain West Conference alone. 

The P-2's only chance is for Cal and Stanford to be forced to return and for the B12 presidents to go temporarily insane and hire George Kliavkoff to be their commissioner.

Ol

 

That also assumes those bay area wackjobs don't beg us to take them in.  And I hope they never do.

[utgrizfan]

On 4/1/2024 at 8:12 PM, RSF said:

People are missing an important point.

 

Pac12 no longer has an affiliation with the Rose Bowl due to the CFP expansion.  Same goes for the other contract bowls.  The money from this past Rose Bowl game will be part of the final conference distibution.

Other sources are claiming they have it through 2026? If that's the case bare minimum it seems the Rose Bowl would have to reach a settlement with the PAC2 to no longer be tied to the Conference 

[RSF]

On 4/1/2024 at 10:02 PM, utgrizfan said:

Other sources are claiming they have it through 2026? If that's the case bare minimum it seems the Rose Bowl would have to reach a settlement with the PAC2 to no longer be tied to the Conference 

As I said, none of the contract bowls have affiliations.  Why would they?  None of the conferences can fulfill them.  They are tied to the CFP.  P12 doesn't have any bowls now.  Well...sorta.

 

https://www.deseret.com/2024/2/14/24072888/former-pac-12-schools-likely-to-play-in-pac-12-affiliated-bowl-games-in-2024-and-2025/#:~:text=The Pac-12-affiliated bowl,ESPN event bowl in 2025).

[NorthWestCowboy]

On 3/29/2024 at 6:57 PM, Headbutt said:

Never mind.  You're talking about WSU.  Why?  They're in or out depending on a ton of factors, but they're not really a topic for further expansion.  That deal is already pretty much done, but like I said.  A good addition, but we don't need them.

I'm admitedly biased as an OSU alum and having lived in the WSU footprint since 2007.  I do think adding WSU and also OSU will have a stabilizing long term effect on the MWC.  In this way I do think we need them.  They are undoubtedly the best possible additions in the west and will do more for the MWC than any available combination of previously mentioned Texas, New Mexico or Montana schools could ever do.  As long as they are the PAC-2 and basically unaffiliated they are to some extent a threat to breaking apart the current MWC in favor of some sort of a BoR conference.  The odds of this happening in the west will be greatly increased if the ACC falls apart and Cal and Stanford come back to the fold for a BoR scenario.  Lots of speculation here but as a Wyoming fan my school is particularly vulnerable to a BoR scenario.

Back to my only real point here, I do think WSU and OSU are perfect fits for the MWC.  Once they accept their all but certain fate they will be stabilizing assets.  For now I don't blame them for being sore about how their athletic and financial worlds have imploaded.  They'll likely get somewhat of a soft landing by inheriting the lions share of the PAC coffers but they are coming down to Earth quickly and in a big way.

[utgrizfan]

On 4/1/2024 at 10:13 PM, NorthWestCowboy said:

 The odds of this happening in the west will be greatly increased if the ACC falls apart and Cal and Stanford come back to the fold for a BoR scenario.  Lots of speculation here but as a Wyoming fan my school is particularly vulnerable to a BoR scenario.

I honestly could see Stanford being capable of making it as an Independent quite easily leaving CAL as the only option. However they're so snobbish I could see them dropping Football before being associated with the MWC, especially considering how bad their financial situation is. 

[SalinasSpartan]

On 4/1/2024 at 1:43 PM, utgrizfan said:

Still won't be enough to afford 6 MWC schools (the required number for the PAC to continue as a Conference) especially with the penalty fee. Would be improbable to even snag 3 MWC and 3 current lower paid (CUSA 6) AAC schools by adding in that additional income.

Yea the idea that the Pac-2 can get 6 MWC schools to join them is just a bunch of dumb hopium. The math doesn’t work. Either the Pac-2 will have to pay the exit fees, in which case the move doesn’t make financial sense for them. Or, the MWC-6 will pay the exit fees, in which case the move doesn’t make financial sense for them.
 

The idea that the money for a Pac-8 will be so great that it will offset the exit fees is fantasy land bullshit. Like let’s say the Pac-8 happens (LOL). They sign a new TV deal for, I dunno, 8-10 million a year for 6 years. So that TV deal runs through  2032 I believe. Shave off 3M per year to cover the 18M exit fee over those 6 years. So it’s really 5-7M per year for the MWC schools. As they compete against the Pac-2 who will spend several of those years with a budget temporarily inflated by their war chest. And what is going to happen at the end of that deal? BEST case scenario is the ACC will be gutted just as the TV deal is up for renegotiation. Now some of those MWC-6 will inevitably be left out of some rebuilt ACC cross country Frankenstein. Basically the rug will be pulled out from them before they even had a chance to really profit from the move as they ask nicely to be let back into the MWC. 
 

Or the MWC schools can just, you know, wait. 

[SalinasSpartan]

On 3/31/2024 at 8:28 PM, Billings said:

Wilmer breaks down the PAC 2 income and revenue for the next two years

https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/03/30/pac-12-survival-tallying-the-cash-available-to-washington-state-and-oregon-state-for-rebuilding-the-conference/

 

That said, the "Pac-2" schools have a substantial amount of cash available from their four primary revenue streams.
Conference withholdings: $65 million
CFP payouts: $24 million (approx.)
Rose Bowl: $100 million (approx.)
NCAA units: $33 million
The grand total during the critical 24-month window: roughly $222 million.

 

So each of the next two years they have per year
CFP 12 million 
Rose Bowl 50 Million. 
NCAA approx $17 million
SO $79 million or approx $38 million per team

Conference withholdings are $65 million , but I read that may be held to deal with pending lawsuits.  I am not sure how to add that in.  But it is there.

They are playing the MWC $14 million for the schedule and another $1 million to the WCC. They are losing $15 million a year over the next two years for those agreements.

They came out of this better than I thought but at $79 million a year with a debt of $15 million a year plus travel costs, salaries, Conference expenses, etc, etc. they are not rolling in dough.

No way are they going to fund another schools exit fees to join the PAC.

 

And even IF the Pac-2 were able to just eat that $108M exit fee bill for 6 MWC schools, they would have to deal with the very real problem of them essentially elevating schools that could take their spot in a rebuilt ACC down the road. They would be putting themselves on equal footing for 6 years with a lot schools that, if perception is equal, would make a hell of a lot more sense geographically for a rebuilding ACC. SDSU and CSU specifically come to mind. I could easily see the ACC bringing in a bunch of AAC schools and just supplementing them with some of the more eastern and southern MWC schools. 
 

But if the Pac-2 can keep that war chest, to the extent it exists, then they can sort of temporarily boost their budgets to give them the best chance of dominating MWC schools in those 6 years. Then maybe their brand will be strong enough to overcompensate for those geographical limitations.
 

Thats why I don’t think the math works for a Pac-8. Both OSU/WSU and the MWC-6 will be too heavily incentivized to have the other side pay the exit fees.

[Headbutt]

On 4/2/2024 at 12:22 AM, SalinasSpartan said:

And even IF the Pac-2 were able to just eat that $108M exit fee bill for 6 MWC schools, they would have to deal with the very real problem of them essentially elevating schools that could take their spot in a rebuilt ACC down the road. They would be putting themselves on equal footing for 6 years with a lot schools that, if perception is equal, would make a hell of a lot more sense geographically for a rebuilding ACC. SDSU and CSU specifically come to mind. I could easily see the ACC bringing in a bunch of AAC schools and just supplementing them with some of the more eastern and southern MWC schools. 
 

But if the Pac-2 can keep that war chest, to the extent it exists, then they can sort of temporarily boost their budgets to give them the best chance of dominating MWC schools in those 6 years. Then maybe their brand will be strong enough to overcompensate for those geographical limitations.
 

Thats why I don’t think the math works for a Pac-8. Both OSU/WSU and the MWC-6 will be too heavily incentivized to have the other side pay the exit fees.

Thank you.  As I've said, the rarest commodity in college athletics these days is stability.  Quality matters.  If the MWC can add the NW Twins, and find a sweet spot that addresses both stability and quality, we are way ahead of the curve as we watch other folks live and die on what if's at the whim of outside influences.  There's a big opportunity here.  Just have to let level heads prevail.

[---I GREEN INFECTION I---]

On 4/1/2024 at 7:31 PM, jdgaucho said:

 

That also assumes those bay area wackjobs don't beg us to take them in.  And I hope they never do.

 

GO GOLDEN BEARS

 

[jdgaucho]

On 4/2/2024 at 1:00 PM, ---I GREEN INFECTION I--- said:

 

GO GOLDEN BEARS

 

 

Can't feel sorry for them.