Conference Realignment thread

[roughrider]

On 3/31/2024 at 5:02 PM, Headbutt said:

One correction.  None of us can pony up the fee.  I mean, any of us can find the money, but it's prohibitive.  It won't happen.  The theory of 9 MWC schools dissolving the conference to eliminate the fee is a joke.  The remaining three would feast on that lawsuit, not to mention that I don't think you'd find nine that are dumb enough to chase that rainbow.

Let's assume that the new hypothetical conference gains $20 million per school over 5 years.  That's $100 million.  The exit fee at it's lowest is $17 million with an additional $20 million per school penalty to the Pac for the effort.  Joining schools would have to be on the hook for half of that in order for it to even be doable.  That's over 30% of a five year media deal to start the most unstable conference in an unstable industry.  Hopefully no MWC prez is that stupid.

I never underestimate the ignorance of the PAC presidents in all this 'sports' stuff.  They'll go after SDSU first and offer to pay off at least half (probably with the last of the war chest left over, they're that smart).  Then it would be the PAC3 because there's no way they'll get enough MWC schools to build their fantasy back. 

What's the # of MWC schools that have to bail out at the same time to dissolve that legal binding? 9?   Or am I wrong about that?

[Chalsean]

The only thing to fear is a MWC prez having FOMO.  That seems to be driving some of the realignment in other conferences.  WOSU by themselves do not justify $17-$34 million to get in bed with them.  But if multiple schools jump ship, you want to be jumping with them.

[NorNevLifer]

If Calford had not made the jump to the ACC then we would for sure be looking at a reconstructed PAC with several MWC schools. I will be shocked if any MWC schools still feel the same about jumping for only OSU/WSU.

[jdgaucho]

On 3/31/2024 at 4:19 PM, roughrider said:

I never underestimate the ignorance of the PAC presidents in all this 'sports' stuff.  They'll go after SDSU first and offer to pay off at least half (probably with the last of the war chest left over, they're that smart).  Then it would be the PAC3 because there's no way they'll get enough MWC schools to build their fantasy back. 

What's the # of MWC schools that have to bail out at the same time to dissolve that legal binding? 9?   Or am I wrong about that?

 

9

[Brew_Poke]

On 3/31/2024 at 5:19 PM, roughrider said:

I never underestimate the ignorance of the PAC presidents in all this 'sports' stuff.  They'll go after SDSU first and offer to pay off at least half (probably with the last of the war chest left over, they're that smart).  Then it would be the PAC3 because there's no way they'll get enough MWC schools to build their fantasy back. 

What's the # of MWC schools that have to bail out at the same time to dissolve that legal binding? 9?   Or am I wrong about that?

Even for SDSU, why would they want to join Wazzu and Oregon State? What do they really have to offer?

[Someone Else]

You guys do realize that if OSU/WSU are able to pry away some of the MW schools to form a new conference it will be because TV/networks want it that way.  No school is just going to jump in because it sounds like it might be a good idea.

I have no idea when the TV contract is up for the MW but if CBS says, you know what... we don't want to pay for a conference made up of all the MW school plus OSU/WSU... but we'll pay you X mil for a conference made up of OSU/WSU + 6 or 8 from the MW (that they specifically name)... that's when it will happen (if it happens).

[Billings]

Wilmer breaks down the PAC 2 income and revenue for the next two years

https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/03/30/pac-12-survival-tallying-the-cash-available-to-washington-state-and-oregon-state-for-rebuilding-the-conference/

 

That said, the "Pac-2" schools have a substantial amount of cash available from their four primary revenue streams.
Conference withholdings: $65 million
CFP payouts: $24 million (approx.)
Rose Bowl: $100 million (approx.)
NCAA units: $33 million
The grand total during the critical 24-month window: roughly $222 million.

 

So each of the next two years they have per year
CFP 12 million 
Rose Bowl 50 Million. 
NCAA approx $17 million
SO $79 million or approx $38 million per team

Conference withholdings are $65 million , but I read that may be held to deal with pending lawsuits.  I am not sure how to add that in.  But it is there.

They are playing the MWC $14 million for the schedule and another $1 million to the WCC. They are losing $15 million a year over the next two years for those agreements.

They came out of this better than I thought but at $79 million a year with a debt of $15 million a year plus travel costs, salaries, Conference expenses, etc, etc. they are not rolling in dough.

No way are they going to fund another schools exit fees to join the PAC.

 

[Headbutt]

On 3/31/2024 at 9:02 PM, Someone Else said:

You guys do realize that if OSU/WSU are able to pry away some of the MW schools to form a new conference it will be because TV/networks want it that way.  No school is just going to jump in because it sounds like it might be a good idea.

I have no idea when the TV contract is up for the MW but if CBS says, you know what... we don't want to pay for a conference made up of all the MW school plus OSU/WSU... but we'll pay you X mil for a conference made up of OSU/WSU + 6 or 8 from the MW (that they specifically name)... that's when it will happen (if it happens).

Absolutely aware of that.  The current deal expires after the '25 - '26 academic year, same time the CW deal expires for the Pac leftovers.  Basically about 27 months from now.  Yep, none of the speculation happens unless somebody is willing to pay for it.  Nobody will IMO.  Especially with the need to make it lucrative enough for all these proposed schools to be able to pay off the punitive damages in their contracts.  The speculation is fun, and some crazy stuff MIGHT happen, but show me a reasonable and responsible university president or TV exec that would be on board with that circus.

[Billings]

Nice Twitter. 

 

 

[Someone Else]

23 minutes ago, Headbutt said:

Absolutely aware of that.  The current deal expires after the '25 - '26 academic year, same time the CW deal expires for the Pac leftovers.  Basically about 27 months from now.  Yep, none of the speculation happens unless somebody is willing to pay for it.  Nobody will IMO.  Especially with the need to make it lucrative enough for all these proposed schools to be able to pay off the punitive damages in their contracts.  The speculation is fun, and some crazy stuff MIGHT happen, but show me a reasonable and responsible university president or TV exec that would be on board with that circus.

I agree it's looking unlikely but I think my point is that TV makes the decisions.    what do the MWC schools do if TV says we have decided we don't want to resign the MWC as is?  What then? (I know, more speculation but my point is that the decision is probably not the schools to make.  They will go along with whatever is offered.)

[HawaiiMongoose]

So it seems Wilner is only telling one side of the story, and it's the side that OSU and WSU fans would want to hear.

OSU and WSU fans who have to pay subscription fees if they want to read his columns.

Okay...

[MissionTrails]

On 3/31/2024 at 9:39 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

So it seems Wilner is only telling one side of the story, and it's the side that OSU and WSU fans would want to hear.

OSU and WSU fans who have to pay subscription fees if they want to read his columns.

Okay...

Wilner has a different setup to read his column than Canzano. I paid $1 to read all his columns and the rest of the SJ Mercury News for 6 months. I don't read them often, but c'mon 1 frickin' dollar! Canzano has a lot more material, but I don't care to pay for his subscription. Too much PNW stuff I don't care about.

[utgrizfan]

On 3/31/2024 at 6:36 PM, NorNevLifer said:

If Calford had not made the jump to the ACC then we would for sure be looking at a reconstructed PAC with several MWC schools. I will be shocked if any MWC schools still feel the same about jumping for only OSU/WSU.

I think especially in light of their Financial situation being revealed the PAC2 are banking on the ACC losing schools, it's honestly the only scenario where they maybe get picked up by a "M2" Conference and don't have to merge with the MWC that I can see.

For example if the ACC loses some schools (popular mentions being FSU, Clemson, UNC and Virginia) or more they'd probably be considered as backfill options.

Another potential hope is if the ACC completely implodes (SEC, BIG and Big12 all take what they want) CAL in particular would have to come crawling back to the PAC and MWC (Stanford has the $$ to make it as an Indy) along with maybe SMU.

Regardless I'm thinking if or when the ACC resolves their current issues before the new MWC TV deal we will see some more definitive decision making by the PAC2 and their future Conference affiliation.

 

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 3/31/2024 at 8:20 PM, MissionTrails said:

Wilner has a different setup to read his column than Canzano. I paid $1 to read all his columns and the rest of the SJ Mercury News for 6 months. I don't read them often, but c'mon 1 frickin' dollar! Canzano has a lot more material, but I don't care to pay for his subscription. Too much PNW stuff I don't care about.

I honestly didn't know it was that cheap.  A six-month online subscription to the Honolulu Star-Advertiser costs $29.95.

In any case I have no doubt that Wilner's compensation is tied to some extent to the number of clicks he generates, so I have to think that pandering to what's left of his old Pac-12 readership works in his financial interest.

[Nevada Convert]

On 4/1/2024 at 12:11 AM, utgrizfan said:

I think especially in light of their Financial situation being revealed the PAC2 are banking on the ACC losing schools, it's honestly the only scenario where they maybe get picked up by a "M2" Conference and don't have to merge with the MWC that I can see.

For example if the ACC loses some schools (popular mentions being FSU, Clemson, UNC and Virginia) or more they'd probably be considered as backfill options.

Another potential hope is if the ACC completely implodes (SEC, BIG and Big12 all take what they want) CAL in particular would have to come crawling back to the PAC and MWC (Stanford has the $$ to make it as an Indy) along with maybe SMU.

Regardless I'm thinking if or when the ACC resolves their current issues before the new MWC TV deal we will see some more definitive decision making by the PAC2 and their future Conference affiliation.

Even if the ACC is raided, the leftover ACC schools with the PAC-4 aren’t going to amount to much of a TV deal when you factor in the travel cost, fatigue, negative impact on grades, etc. The operating expenses are going to be through the roof. Are Boston College, Pitt, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, etc. going to give you good TV numbers to offset high costs? Of course not. 

I also think that longer term, with exception of maybe football with such few road games compared to other sports, you’re going to see athletes wanting to sign with schools that don’t require so much traveling. Ex PAC-12 schools might eventually find their BB recruiting get hit for this reason. 

It would make more sense to merge with the AAC.

[Nevada Convert]

This has probably already been thrown out there. The “Pacific Atlantic-22” or the PAC-22 Conference. Basically schools in each division mostly play themselves, but have some crossover OOD (out of division) games, and the winner of each in FB play a championship game. I’m assuming Stanford would go Indy, and CAL would drop football. Using a presidential race interactive map, I have the two divisions blue and red at the bottom. 

It’s basically a glorified scheduling agreement with eastern leftovers that are historically power schools. It’s getting tougher to get OOC FB & BB games with power conference schools, and as the SEC and B-10 break away, the eastern leftovers will need more games, as well. This way we get them over MAC, Sun Belt and other G5’s. The SEC will also probably get rid of Vanderbilt eventually that could be added to the Atlantic Division. WTF, it’s the off-season.

 

Pacific Division
SDSU
Boise St. 
Nevada
Fresno St. 
CSU
Wyoming
Air Force
Utah St. 
UNLV
New Mexico
Oregon St.
Washington St.

Atlantic Division
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Boston College
Wake Forest
NC State
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Louisville
Memphis
SMU

[roughrider]

On 3/31/2024 at 7:55 PM, Brew_Poke said:

Even for SDSU, why would they want to join Wazzu and Oregon State? What do they really have to offer?

Good question and I hope SDSU wouldn't be tempted but I wouldn't put it past the 2Pac to try it.

[dudleyDgroot]

On 4/1/2024 at 4:02 AM, Nevada Convert said:

This has probably already been thrown out there. The “Pacific Atlantic-22” or the PAC-22 Conference. Basically schools in each division mostly play themselves, but have some crossover OOD (out of division) games, and the winner of each in FB play a championship game. I’m assuming Stanford would go Indy, and CAL would drop football. Using a presidential race interactive map, I have the two divisions blue and red at the bottom. 

It’s basically a glorified scheduling agreement with eastern leftovers that are historically power schools. It’s getting tougher to get OOC FB & BB games with power conference schools, and as the SEC and B-10 break away, the eastern leftovers will need more games, as well. This way we get them over MAC, Sun Belt and other G5’s. The SEC will also probably get rid of Vanderbilt eventually that could be added to the Atlantic Division. WTF, it’s the off-season.

 

Pacific Division
SDSU
Boise St. 
Nevada
Fresno St. 
CSU
Wyoming
Air Force
Utah St. 
UNLV
New Mexico
Oregon St.
Washington St.

Atlantic Division
Georgia Tech
Pitt
Boston College
Wake Forest
NC State
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Louisville
Memphis
SMU

Sure...leave out San Jose State ( largest media market) and include Wyoming ( smallest market)....Brilliant !

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 4/1/2024 at 4:49 AM, dudleyDgroot said:

Sure...leave out San Jose State ( largest media market) and include Wyoming ( smallest market)....Brilliant !

Not to worry, this concept is DOA anyhow.  Regardless of who leaves the ACC, the likelihood of the left-behind bourgeoisie being willing to associate themselves with the unwashed proletariat of the MWC is practically nil.

[Beaver-Poke]

On 3/31/2024 at 8:28 PM, Billings said:

Wilmer breaks down the PAC 2 income and revenue for the next two years

https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/03/30/pac-12-survival-tallying-the-cash-available-to-washington-state-and-oregon-state-for-rebuilding-the-conference/

 

That said, the "Pac-2" schools have a substantial amount of cash available from their four primary revenue streams.
Conference withholdings: $65 million
CFP payouts: $24 million (approx.)
Rose Bowl: $100 million (approx.)
NCAA units: $33 million
The grand total during the critical 24-month window: roughly $222 million.

 

So each of the next two years they have per year
CFP 12 million 
Rose Bowl 50 Million. 
NCAA approx $17 million
SO $79 million or approx $38 million per team

Conference withholdings are $65 million , but I read that may be held to deal with pending lawsuits.  I am not sure how to add that in.  But it is there.

They are playing the MWC $14 million for the schedule and another $1 million to the WCC. They are losing $15 million a year over the next two years for those agreements.

They came out of this better than I thought but at $79 million a year with a debt of $15 million a year plus travel costs, salaries, Conference expenses, etc, etc. they are not rolling in dough.

No way are they going to fund another schools exit fees to join the PAC.

 

You realize the Pac-2's income is not limited to what Wilner detailed. It will also have income from their TV contract, home gate receipts, road-game guarantees from opponents other than the MWC, booster donations, state appropriations ($10 million for OSU), etc? Income will far surpass $79 million.