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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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On 2/14/2024 at 11:25 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

The two team pac will not qualify for the playoffs except for an at large bid.  Even if the NCAA recognized them as being eligible (they don’t) the playoff committee will not allow that to happen.  It’s not happening to them whether it’s 5+7 or 6+6.  They are essentially asking for a subsidy in exchange for allowing another power conference to get an at large bid.  Since the other power conferences already want that, there’s no reason to cut the leftover 2 in.  They’re trying to maximize leverage in a situation where all they have is squeezing the current deal, which expires after next season.  

That leverage is pretty absolute.  The NCAA has absolutely nothing to do with it.  It is completely up to the playoff committee, and they are legally bound to not only give the twins a vote, but also a veto right if there is an attempt to change the status quo.  I'm sure they can be bought out, but make no mistake that they are holding the cards right now.  Probably cheaper to buy them out as the legal ramifications of breaking the contract would be very, very expensive.

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On 2/15/2024 at 12:04 AM, Headbutt said:

That leverage is pretty absolute.  The NCAA has absolutely nothing to do with it.  It is completely up to the playoff committee, and they are legally bound to not only give the twins a vote, but also a veto right if there is an attempt to change the status quo.  I'm sure they can be bought out, but make no mistake that they are holding the cards right now.  Probably cheaper to buy them out as the legal ramifications of breaking the contract would be very, very expensive.

Honestly think a buy out is merely a 2nd or even tertiary hope for the PAC2, based on their behavior and ignoring whats rational, most likey or plain common sense :

-Join a P4 Conference (even as Football only)

-Rebuild PAC with select MWC + AAC schools, retain Power or match ACC and Big12 level.

-Become Independent Power teams with a scheduling agreement with the MWC, other sports probably end up in the Big West.

(A buy out would make sense for these scenarios, they'd get even more $$ as it would be necessary to achieve any of these)

They've made it clear that they don't want to merge with the entire MWC, I wouldn't put it past the CFP Committee to maybe look into helping breaking up the MWC themselves to make it happen. People will go to great lengths and do anything when millions of millions of dollars are on the table, and especially if the TV overlords only want certain programs/see value.

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On 2/15/2024 at 2:04 AM, Headbutt said:

That leverage is pretty absolute.  The NCAA has absolutely nothing to do with it.  It is completely up to the playoff committee, and they are legally bound to not only give the twins a vote, but also a veto right if there is an attempt to change the status quo.  I'm sure they can be bought out, but make no mistake that they are holding the cards right now.  Probably cheaper to buy them out as the legal ramifications of breaking the contract would be very, very expensive.

They (playoff committee) could just wait out making changes until the new deal takes place.  It’s already been voted to expand to 12.  5+7 vs 6+6 isn’t that dire to anyone but those on the outside (leftover 2, mwc, aac, etc) that need a chance at that 6th spot.  There’s only a 25% chance that any of the p4 conferences get that 6th spot…why split the entire pot an extra two ways just at a small chance you may make that money back?

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On 2/15/2024 at 3:52 AM, utgrizfan said:

Honestly think a buy out is merely a 2nd or even tertiary hope for the PAC2, based on their behavior and ignoring whats rational, most likey or plain common sense :

-Join a P4 Conference (even as Football only)

-Rebuild PAC with select MWC + AAC schools, retain Power or match ACC and Big12 level.

-Become Independent Power teams with a scheduling agreement with the MWC, other sports probably end up in the Big West.

(A buy out would make sense for these scenarios, they'd get even more $$ as it would be necessary to achieve any of these)

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They've made it clear that they don't want to merge with the entire MWC, I wouldn't put it past the CFP Committee to maybe look into helping breaking up the MWC themselves to make it happen. People will go to great lengths and do anything when millions of millions of dollars are on the table, and especially if the TV overlords only want certain programs/see value.

None of those three outcomes are likely as written.  
I don’t see the committee having any interest in breaking up a conference (liability concerns) or honestly really having much interest in anything other than maximizing access for the p4 conferences.  
TV overlords likely view the MWC deal as a bargain and probably want to squeeze as much blood from that stone as they can before they can just offer penny’s on the dollar for stream only and walk away from linear.  Market consolidation is real.

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On 2/13/2024 at 7:25 PM, jdgaucho said:

Tell @HawaiiMongoose that :coffeecomputer:

 

On 2/14/2024 at 9:42 AM, ---I GREEN INFECTION I--- said:

You just did.

What wrong w/the BIG West Board, that has you lurking here?

 

On 2/14/2024 at 9:54 AM, jdgaucho said:

No superior lifestyle

 

"Superior lifestyle," might be part of it.

However, isn't your lack of a GF a greater variable for why you lurk on the MWC Board?

 

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On 2/14/2024 at 11:45 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

I'm sure almost nobody here cares, but FWIW, the BWC board administrator insists on having six separate forums to cover men's basketball, women's basketball, baseball, volleyball, soccer, and other sports.  It no doubt helps him keep things neatly organized, but IMHO it prevents the emergence of a genuinely engaged and active fan community.  There just aren't enough BWC fans reading and posting in each separate forum to make them worth visiting regularly.

We're fortunate that here on the MWC board everything is in one place and anyone with an interest in the conference can easily read about, post about, and interact on a variety of topics.  The Hawaii board is the same way and that place is hopping most of the year.

 

That's fair...

 

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On 2/10/2024 at 8:56 AM, NorCalCoug said:

Why would they?  Those additions along with BYU are what stabilized the conference and set the stage for the position they find themselves in today.  

Maybe because the 4 finished at the bottom of the B12 in football? Conference perception and strength is a real thing. I'm not sure "stabilized" is the correct wording. I'd go with adding warm bodies to put a band-aid on a compound fracture.

I think we can agree that this was likely the best move at the time. Hindsight is 20/20.  But if they had a chance to skip the dreadful 4 and wait for the P12 additions, it would probably look a lot better. 

As of now, it seems the B12 just added mouths to feed with the AAC and BYU additions.  

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On 2/15/2024 at 10:35 AM, utenation said:

Maybe because the 4 finished at the bottom of the B12 in football? Conference perception and strength is a real thing. I'm not sure "stabilized" is the correct wording. I'd go with adding warm bodies to put a band-aid on a compound fracture.

I think we can agree that this was likely the best move at the time. Hindsight is 20/20.  But if they had a chance to skip the dreadful 4 and wait for the P12 additions, it would probably look a lot better. 

As of now, it seems the B12 just added mouths to feed with the AAC and BYU additions.  

I don't think that's accurate.

wasn't it reported that the BIG12 was able to avoid the large financial hit from losing Texas and Oklahoma to their TV contract by adding those 4 schools?   I think the appeal was they got games in new time zones (UCF and BYU)

the time zone issue is partly why the remainder PAC12 couldn't match the BIG12 TV contract and so Colorado looked for a life boat from the BIG12, which was shortly followed by Utah, Arizona, and ASU.  the late games in the PAC12 meant most of the country wouldn't watch

I always thought the PAC12 should have added SDSU, but also some Texas schools

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On 2/15/2024 at 12:52 AM, utgrizfan said:

Honestly think a buy out is merely a 2nd or even tertiary hope for the PAC2, based on their behavior and ignoring whats rational, most likey or plain common sense :

They've made it clear that they don't want to merge with the entire MWC, I wouldn't put it past the CFP Committee to maybe look into helping breaking up the MWC themselves to make it happen. People will go to great lengths and do anything when millions of millions of dollars are on the table, and especially if the TV overlords only want certain programs/see value.

That's distinctly possible and there's no doubt that some MW schools would have more value to the overlords than others so the overlords would probably be more interested in having a contract with a revamped Pac-8 than a MW+2. However, if you mean the overlords would also like to see the demise of the remainder of the MW, I doubt that. I think they'd much rather also obtain more FBS programming by seeing the half dozen remaining MW schools add 4-6 current FCS members.

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On 1/17/2024 at 2:26 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

I know throwing stones in glass shacks is kind of your shtick but I wouldn’t get too mouthy about the realities of playing in a real conference, it’s early but I only see 4 conference wins on your schedule next season, and that’s assuming Arizona falls apart. 

Yikes Lil' Buddy.

The pre season accolades for the Utes are piling up. Your "4 win" Utah prediction is looking pretty stinky.. I guess these folks don't have your level of "insight" and "sources".  Utah was ranked all season last year until about Mid November even with a MASH unit for a team.  Otherwise we really haven't left the Top 25 for several years. 

No mention of "Powerhouse" UCF in these articles? You'd figure with UCF already being a P5 powerhouse "for years", they'd get some love? Guess not.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/39512432/updated-2024-way-too-early-college-football-top-25-rankings

https://www.si.com/college/utah/football/joel-klatt-reveals-why-utah-will-be-excellent-in-2024

But like you said, "West Coast Bias" in the polls helped the P12 in pre season but we always faded by the end of the year. The only problem is, Utah is now in the B12 getting the same respect. Go figure. 

 

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On 10/15/2022 at 8:21 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

PAC is still benefiting from preseason west coast bias, which will always make you look better in the first half of the season.  It fades annually like clockwork for the PAC.  But seriously, good luck against USC future conference mate. The Massey composite trends are tightening between the PAC and ACC for fourth/fifth place. And 3/4 of the new adds are top 25 caliber teams.  The other would be the best basketball school in the PAC.  

By the way, don’t think UCF is meh anymore.  I’m stunned myself but now that our offense has been let loose we’re one of only three schools in the country with both a top 15 defense and offense (Alabama and Michigan).  

And our Space Game uni’s are the best this year.

 

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On 2/15/2024 at 11:50 AM, Motown Monty said:

I don't think that's accurate.

wasn't it reported that the BIG12 was able to avoid the large financial hit from losing Texas and Oklahoma to their TV contract by adding those 4 schools?   I think the appeal was they got games in new time zones (UCF and BYU)

the time zone issue is partly why the remainder PAC12 couldn't match the BIG12 TV contract and so Colorado looked for a life boat from the BIG12, which was shortly followed by Utah, Arizona, and ASU.  the late games in the PAC12 meant most of the country wouldn't watch

I always thought the PAC12 should have added SDSU, but also some Texas schools

Umm. Didn't ESPN offer the remaining 10 P12 teams $30 million? Same as the B12? As far as the 4 stooges. None of the 4 added great TV ratings(3 of them were outright terrible) and certainly not performance and success in football.  That doesn't improve the value of a conference, it lowers it last time I checked. 

Football is king. 

 

 

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On 2/15/2024 at 11:18 AM, utenation said:

Umm. Didn't ESPN offer the remaining 10 P12 teams $30 million? Same as the B12? As far as the 4 stooges. None of the 4 added great TV ratings(3 of them were outright terrible) and certainly not performance and success in football.  That doesn't improve the value of a conference, it lowers it last time I checked. 

Football is king.

 

You confused ESPN with Apple tv,   

yes it was $31 million but it was dependent on Apple TV subscriptions to get that high.  PAC12 could not get TV interest

so every school had to grab a life boat to their new conference

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/proposed-pac-12-deal-with-apple-tv-paid-23-million-per-school-with-subscription-based-upside-per-report/

The Pac-12 crumbled late last week with a one-two punch of blockbuster announcements. First Oregon and Washington announced their departure for the Big Ten. That was followed shortly by the defections of  Arizona, Arizona State and Utah to the Big 12. Why? The absence of a new media rights deal played the biggest role in the demise of the once-proud league. 

According to The Athletic, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff presented an offer to school presidents and athletic directors on Aug. 1 that would pay member schools an estimated a base of $23 million a year for five seasons with increases for subscriptions to a Pac-12 athletics package on the Apple TV streaming service. This would mean around $31.7 million a year per institution if the league could achieve 1.7 million subscriptions. The deal had a possible payout of $50 million per year for every school for 5 million new subscriptions. 

That offer, while competitive with other conferences if all incentives are met, was not a realistic option for the majority of presidents and athletic directors, many of whom elected to bolt for conferences with more traditional broadcast media deals. 

While the incentive-based proposal from Kliavkoff to Pac-12 members had a massive top-end revenue projection, it was likely to be below the Big 12's guarantee as well. That stability is also a big reason why Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State will be in the Big 12 starting in 2024.

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On 2/15/2024 at 1:50 PM, Motown Monty said:

 

You confused ESPN with Apple tv,   

yes it was $31 million but it was dependent on Apple TV subscriptions to get that high.  PAC12 could not get TV interest

so every school had to grab a life boat to their new conference

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/proposed-pac-12-deal-with-apple-tv-paid-23-million-per-school-with-subscription-based-upside-per-report/

The Pac-12 crumbled late last week with a one-two punch of blockbuster announcements. First Oregon and Washington announced their departure for the Big Ten. That was followed shortly by the defections of  Arizona, Arizona State and Utah to the Big 12. Why? The absence of a new media rights deal played the biggest role in the demise of the once-proud league. 

According to The Athletic, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff presented an offer to school presidents and athletic directors on Aug. 1 that would pay member schools an estimated a base of $23 million a year for five seasons with increases for subscriptions to a Pac-12 athletics package on the Apple TV streaming service. This would mean around $31.7 million a year per institution if the league could achieve 1.7 million subscriptions. The deal had a possible payout of $50 million per year for every school for 5 million new subscriptions. 

That offer, while competitive with other conferences if all incentives are met, was not a realistic option for the majority of presidents and athletic directors, many of whom elected to bolt for conferences with more traditional broadcast media deals. 

While the incentive-based proposal from Kliavkoff to Pac-12 members had a massive top-end revenue projection, it was likely to be below the Big 12's guarantee as well. That stability is also a big reason why Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State will be in the Big 12 starting in 2024.

Monty. I'm not going to run you through the mud on this one. But you need to research the offer ESPN gave the P10 in the fall of 2022. This has nothing to do with Apple's offer in the summer of 2023. 

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On 1/31/2024 at 3:21 PM, Pelado said:

Even so, I think expecting the playoffs is bit much for Utah this coming season, even with Cam Rising coming back.  Has Cam made it through a season without missing any time with injury?  I thought I also heard of some significant portal losses for Utah this offseason.

Aspire to the conference championship and an automatic playoff bid, sure, but a playoff expectation is a bit much.

LOL at this again.  Spoken like a BYU fan. It seems many media folks don't think Utah in the playoffs is big stretch like you're claiming.. You better get after all these folks saying Utah will be good this year.

BTW, isn't Brett McMurphy a B12 homer and PAC hater?

https://kslsports.com/511300/utah-college-football-playoff-contender/

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On 2/15/2024 at 11:59 AM, 818SUDSFan said:

That's distinctly possible and there's no doubt that some MW schools would have more value to the overlords than others so the overlords would probably be more interested in having a contract with a revamped Pac-8 than a MW+2. However, if you mean the overlords would also like to see the demise of the remainder of the MW, I doubt that. I think they'd much rather also obtain more FBS programming by seeing the half dozen remaining MW schools add 4-6 current FCS members.

Even if there was some poaching MWC would still exist, I've mentioned what I think would happen a few times on here:

-NMSU, UTEP would be for sure adds and maybe Texas State and other Texas CUSA teams to exhaust all FBS options.

-After that you have Montana, MSU, Sac State/UC-Davis, Idaho, NDSU, SDSU etc.

Only reason I hope it happens is because it gives both Montana schools the best chance to move up. But as mentioned I also belive that it's more a matter of when not if the PAC2 merge entire with the MWC.

 

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On 2/15/2024 at 12:50 PM, Motown Monty said:

 

You confused ESPN with Apple tv,   

yes it was $31 million but it was dependent on Apple TV subscriptions to get that high.  PAC12 could not get TV interest

so every school had to grab a life boat to their new conference

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/proposed-pac-12-deal-with-apple-tv-paid-23-million-per-school-with-subscription-based-upside-per-report/

The Pac-12 crumbled late last week with a one-two punch of blockbuster announcements. First Oregon and Washington announced their departure for the Big Ten. That was followed shortly by the defections of  Arizona, Arizona State and Utah to the Big 12. Why? The absence of a new media rights deal played the biggest role in the demise of the once-proud league. 

According to The Athletic, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff presented an offer to school presidents and athletic directors on Aug. 1 that would pay member schools an estimated a base of $23 million a year for five seasons with increases for subscriptions to a Pac-12 athletics package on the Apple TV streaming service. This would mean around $31.7 million a year per institution if the league could achieve 1.7 million subscriptions. The deal had a possible payout of $50 million per year for every school for 5 million new subscriptions. 

That offer, while competitive with other conferences if all incentives are met, was not a realistic option for the majority of presidents and athletic directors, many of whom elected to bolt for conferences with more traditional broadcast media deals. 

While the incentive-based proposal from Kliavkoff to Pac-12 members had a massive top-end revenue projection, it was likely to be below the Big 12's guarantee as well. That stability is also a big reason why Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State will be in the Big 12 starting in 2024.

ESPN had offered $30 million well before this.  PAC presidents are idiots

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On 2/15/2024 at 12:18 PM, utenation said:

Umm. Didn't ESPN offer the remaining 10 P12 teams $30 million? Same as the B12? As far as the 4 stooges. None of the 4 added great TV ratings(3 of them were outright terrible) and certainly not performance and success in football.  That doesn't improve the value of a conference, it lowers it last time I checked. 

Football is king. 

 

 

Yes, they sure did. How does it make you feel knowing that the almighty PAC wasn’t worth any more than the BigXII + “stooges”? It’s a shame the brainiacs in Salt Lake City talked the PAC out of accepting that deal based on the analysis of a single professor up on the hill. The conference might have survived this latest round of realignment - just like all those presidents and AD’s assured us it would per your daily updates and assurances on this thread.

BYU more than held its own year 1 in the BigXII as far as TV ratings go.  The other additions were admittedly lousy.

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On 2/15/2024 at 4:11 PM, NorCalCoug said:

Yes, they sure did. How does it make you feel knowing that the almighty PAC wasn’t worth any more than the BigXII + “stooges”? It’s a shame the brainiacs in Salt Lake City talked the PAC out of accepting that deal based on the analysis of a single professor up on the hill. The conference might have survived this latest round of realignment - just like all those presidents and AD’s assured us it would per your daily updates and assurances on this thread.

BYU more than held its own year 1 in the BigXII as far as TV ratings go.  The other additions were admittedly lousy.

Well, the 4 corners got full shares from day 1 right? Not so much for the stooges.  I guess that makes them worth more in the eyes of the B12 right? I think Utah is worth $30 million for sure. We earned our street cred. The stooges? Yikes.  Might be a brutal, long road. All BYU and the AAC turds did is sink the conference SOS like an anchor.

And you don't need to go back too far on this thread for me calling the P12 Presidents morons. Including Utah's Randall being the leader of that moronic charge with bad info. 

You really should find a different angle on that one because I've been telling everyone the same thing once it went public. 

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On 2/15/2024 at 4:11 PM, NorCalCoug said:

Yes, they sure did. How does it make you feel knowing that the almighty PAC wasn’t worth any more than the BigXII + “stooges”?

I think you need a trip down memory lane on this one. I never said the P12 would get or was worth more than the B12.. In fact, it was quite the other way around. For months and years, all we heard on this thread is how much more the B12 was worth than the P12. You and your little handicapped buddy @Did I hear a WOOSH?, the Houston Bozos and the TCU parrot were the ones talking big boy B12 numbers and the demise of the P12 over and over and over.

All I said is I wanted a fair deal with the P12.

 

 

 

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