Conference Realignment thread

[RSF]

On 11/27/2023 at 11:18 AM, SteedLaw said:

Wasn’t it reported that a new renegotiated PPS for a PAC/MWC merger would be around $8-12MM?

And, for clarification, I am not talking about competing with the Big XII in expenditures. I am talking about becoming head and shoulders above the American, the Sun Belt and the rest of the G5. 

Assuming this merger were to go through, then, by the numbers, the average expenditures of the new “PAC” would be just BELOW the Big XII and significantly higher in average than teams in those other G5 conferences. 

 

lol

[Billings]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:28 AM, Wyobraska said:

A new Pac 12 won't be anywhere near the Big 12.  I don't see the new MWC being head and shoulders above the rest of the G5 on the field.  

The MW is not in a good spot right now and I'm not sure a few more million per year fixes things for a lot of MW schools. 

I think the MWC is in decent shape.   We are in better shape than CUSA, MAC, or AAC.   I am amazed at how well the Sunbelt is playing.  Deep Kudos to them.    IF the Pac 14 becomes a reality we are it good shape until the ACC gets ripped and the ACC remnants and BIG 12 go to war for members.  AAC will lose at least two schools in that mess as could the MWC.

[SteedLaw]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:33 AM, Billings said:

I think the MWC is in decent shape.   We are in better shape than CUSA, MAC, or AAC.   I am amazed at how well the Sunbelt is playing.  Deep Kudos to them.    IF the Pac 14 becomes a reality we are it good shape until the ACC gets ripped and the ACC remnants and BIG 12 go to war for members.  AAC will lose at least two schools in that mess as could the MWC.

How is the MWC in bad shape? We are on the verge of adding OSU and WSU either as temporary affiliates, then full members, or just outright as full members. 

The AAC is playing no better than we are. And the Sun Belt is having, well, a single good year after many years of sub-par performance.

 

[alum93]

On 11/27/2023 at 11:57 AM, SteedLaw said:

How is the MWC in bad shape? We are on the verge of adding OSU and WSU either as temporary affiliates, then full members, or just outright as full members. 

The AAC is playing no better than we are. And the Sun Belt is having, well, a single good year after many years of sub-par performance.

 

It sounds to me like you really don't follow other G5 conferences closely.  The comment on the Sun Belt is just wrong.  They have built themselves up over time into a solid G5 regional conference that will contend for the playoff spot, much like the MWC.  There is nothing wrong with being a homer for your own school or the conference.  But thinking you are head and shoulders above the AAC and Sun Belt?  I don't see it.  And i don't think adding WSU and OSU will be the huge bump you think it is, namely because they are going to be operating with a much smaller budget moving forward once the merger is complete.  The MWC is a solid G5 conference.  There are others as well.  But hey, if the MWC starts snagging the playoff spot every year like you say, i'll be the first to admit i was wrong.  

[SalinasSpartan]

On 11/27/2023 at 11:09 AM, alum93 said:

It sounds to me like you really don't follow other G5 conferences closely.  The comment on the Sun Belt is just wrong.  They have built themselves up over time into a solid G5 regional conference that will contend for the playoff spot, much like the MWC.  There is nothing wrong with being a homer for your own school or the conference.  But thinking you are head and shoulders above the AAC and Sun Belt?  I don't see it.  And i don't think adding WSU and OSU will be the huge bump you think it is, namely because they are going to be operating with a much smaller budget moving forward once the merger is complete.  The MWC is a solid G5 conference.  There are others as well.  But hey, if the MWC starts snagging the playoff spot every year like you say, i'll be the first to admit i was wrong.  

I agree, I don’t think the MWC with OSU/WSU will be “head and shoulders” above the AAC and SBC. But yea, I do believe the MWC would be the favorites every year to get the playoff spot. I mean as is it stands right now the MWC/AAC/SBC are on about equal footing. So to say that will just continue to be the case would mean you are saying that not only would OSU/WSU not be a “huge bump”, it would essentially be NO bump at all. I don’t agree with that. Sure, their operating budgets for them will be smaller than they currently are, but they will still be larger than the majority of their new peers. 

[SalinasSpartan]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:14 AM, alum93 said:

UMass possibly.  I would guess CUSA would want 12 teams.  

Yea UMass would make sense with Delaware. Delaware is a good add, IMO. 

[Billings]

OSU barnes on their 2024 schedule

 

On the football schedule for 2024:
“The schedule will be representative of what we’ve seen in the past. We’ll have six ‘group of five’ games, we’ll have five ‘power 5’ schools, and an FCS that we’ve always had. Some of those are already booked, additional ones will be announced very very soon, and some of the ink won’t be dry on a couple of those. 

"It may linger a little further. Until you have the ink dry on the contract you can’t really say… we’ll give some information here very soon and the balance as we finalize some of the contracts.”

 

Thoughts from an OSU poster on their board

 6 games provided by the MWC

Purdue and WSU will be two of the P5 games

Idaho State is the FCS

There are 9 of the 12.  

Oregon may be an add so if that happens they only needed to add 2 more P5 games.

[Headbutt]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:18 AM, SteedLaw said:

Wasn’t it reported that a new renegotiated PPS for a PAC/MWC merger would be around $8-12MM?

And, for clarification, I am not talking about competing with the Big XII in expenditures. I am talking about becoming head and shoulders above the American, the Sun Belt and the rest of the G5. 

Assuming this merger were to go through, then, by the numbers, the average expenditures of the new “PAC” would be just BELOW the Big XII and significantly higher in average than teams in those other G5 conferences. 

That has indeed been reported, but it's speculation by some sports writer.  No numbers have come out from conference offices or media reps.  $10 million would be massive bonus for a G5 conference.  Some of your points do carry weight as far as the value of a merged MWC/Pac leftovers, and I do think we could count on the better deal among G5's.  It still won't surpass $10 million IMO,   More likely in the 7-8 range.  Which would be a nice pay raise.

[utenation]

On 11/27/2023 at 1:17 PM, Headbutt said:

That has indeed been reported, but it's speculation by some sports writer.  No numbers have come out from conference offices or media reps.  $10 million would be massive bonus for a G5 conference.  Some of your points do carry weight as far as the value of a merged MWC/Pac leftovers, and I do think we could count on the better deal among G5's.  It still won't surpass $10 million IMO,   More likely in the 7-8 range.  Which would be a nice pay raise.

What is the AAC's deal after the departures? If I remember correctly, it was around $6-7 million before. But there's always a void if the conference falls apart.  I'm not positive on the numbers and too lazy to look.

[Headbutt]

On 11/27/2023 at 2:35 PM, utenation said:

What is the AAC's deal after the departures? If I remember correctly, it was around $6-7 million before. But there's always a void if the conference falls apart.  I'm not positive on the numbers and too lazy to look.

Good question.  I don't know if there are any immediate adjustments built into the contract for losing teams.  The value of the conference has certainly taken a hit though.  Ironically, the departures would seem to have hurt the AAC far more than they help the B12.

[utgrizfan]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:09 AM, alum93 said:

Delaware to make the jump to FBS and join CUSA for 2025 season per Twitter/X.  That will give CUSA 11 teams.  

My vote would probably be UMass if they decide to go to 12 schools. If true the watering down of FCS continues, not gonna lie a bit jealous they may be moving up and the Montanas aren't. Granted we wouldn't be dumb enough to join CUSA, that's going to be some insane travel 

[alum93]

On 11/27/2023 at 12:34 PM, SalinasSpartan said:

I agree, I don’t think the MWC with OSU/WSU will be “head and shoulders” above the AAC and SBC. But yea, I do believe the MWC would be the favorites every year to get the playoff spot. I mean as is it stands right now the MWC/AAC/SBC are on about equal footing. So to say that will just continue to be the case would mean you are saying that not only would OSU/WSU not be a “huge bump”, it would essentially be NO bump at all. I don’t agree with that. Sure, their operating budgets for them will be smaller than they currently are, but they will still be larger than the majority of their new peers. 

Let's assume WSU and OSU are in MWC for the 2025 season.  I agree that will make more competition for the conference.  Here's the tricky part.  In any given year,  a Sun Belt or AAC can run the table.  For example, Liberty out of CUSA is 12-0 and ranked 20th this week.  If you take an undefeated team from one of those conferences with a quality win or two OOC,  do i think a 1 loss MWC team will jump ahead of them now that  WSU and OSU are in conference?  Not necessarily.  In fact, i would lean towards any G5 undefeated team making it over a 1 loss MWC team.  That's why i don't think it's nearly a given that the MWC will get the nod most years.  And it's the 5 highest rated teams that won a conference championship (well 6 for now), so i think it will be a toss up most years on who gets it.  That is not the same as saying i don't think WSU and OSU make the MWC stronger.  Of course they add value.  Just my 2 cents.

[alum93]

On 11/27/2023 at 2:49 PM, utgrizfan said:

My vote would probably be UMass if they decide to go to 12 schools. If true the watering down of FCS continues, not gonna lie a bit jealous they may be moving up and the Montanas aren't. Granted we wouldn't be dumb enough to join CUSA, that's going to be some insane travel 

Not if they end up going east and west divisions.  I think CUSA adds another team soon after Delaware.  Montana has a good thing going with the Big Sky and FCS.  They have good regional rivalries.  That wouldn't have been the case for NMSU.  Had we dropped, i think it would have been very painful for the program and other sports would have suffered as well.  UNM and UTEP are our biggest rivalry games, not to mention proximity of schools.  We would have lost those home games as well.  I think attendance would have cratered to a few thousand.  But certainly for Montana, a conference like CUSA would make zero sense.

[818SUDSFan]

On 11/25/2023 at 4:57 PM, Nevada Convert said:

I don’t see how this changes anything. We all knew this was going to happen. We all know the twins won’t be nearly as good in the future, and the twins still have a lot of decisions to make. I think the chances of them being added to the MWC are almost zero. A reverse merger with the PAC with mandatory minimums is still the most likely scenario, but they still have more denial issues to work through, first. 

A reverse merger is nothing more than fool's gold. A Pac-8 or Pac-10 would obviously have been inferior to a USC/UCLA-less Pac-10 but properly composed it could have been the gold standard for non-power or non-autonomous conferences. Instead, the Pacific Mountain Conference is going to be no better than the AAC with the TV money per school continuing to be inferior to what the AAC members get while the highest-ranked groupie school going to the CFP will continue to be divided among five conferences rather than having that slot filled by the PMC almost every year.

Shame on OSU/WSU for thinking they could buy their way into the AAC or the B12 and then just basically joining THE Mountain West Conference when they discovered that wasn't going to happen.

[SalinasSpartan]

On 11/27/2023 at 1:51 PM, alum93 said:

Let's assume WSU and OSU are in MWC for the 2025 season.  I agree that will make more competition for the conference.  Here's the tricky part.  In any given year,  a Sun Belt or AAC can run the table.  For example, Liberty out of CUSA is 12-0 and ranked 20th this week.  If you take an undefeated team from one of those conferences with a quality win or two OOC,  do i think a 1 loss MWC team will jump ahead of them now that  WSU and OSU are in conference?  No necessarily.  In fact, i would lean towards any G5 undefeated team making it over a 1 loss MWC team.  That's why i don't think it's nearly a given that the MWC will get the nod most years.  And it's the 5 highest rated teams that won a conference championship, so i think it will be a toss up most years on who gets it.  That is not the same as saying i don't think WSU and OSU make the MWC stronger.  Of course they add value.  Just my 2 cents.

I’m not saying a 1 loss MWC champ would automatically be ranked higher than an undefeated SBC or AAC champ. I am saying that with OSU/WSU the MWC would be the best G5 conference top to bottom. Not “head and shoulders” above the SBC and AAC, but better top to bottom most years. As such, the MWC champ would be the favorite in any given year to get the playoff spot. Meaning the MWC champ probably gets the nod in any sort of “tie breaker” scenario where the MWC champ has the same record as the SBC or AAC champ. Similar to the position the AAC was in with the NY6 bowl before Cincy/Houston/UCF left.
 

 

[SalinasSpartan]

On 11/27/2023 at 1:59 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

A reverse merger is nothing more than fool's gold. A Pac-8 or Pac-10 would obviously have been inferior to a USC/UCLA-less Pac-10 but properly composed it could have been the gold standard for non-power or non-autonomous conferences. Instead, the Pacific Mountain Conference is going to be no better than the AAC with the TV money per school continuing to be inferior while the highest ranked groupie school going to the CFP will continue to be divided among five conferences rather than having that slot filled by the PMC almost every year.

Shame on OSU/WSU for thinking they could buy their way into the AAC or the B12 and then just basically joining THE Mountain West Conference when they discovered that wasn't going to happen.

If OSU/WSU joins with the MWC the new TV deal will be higher than the AAC’s. Will it be significantly higher? No. But it WILL be higher. 
 

And regarding the bit about the MWC being “inferior” to the AAC; what are you basing that on? The MWC was, at WORST, on par with the AAC this year, and that was with the AAC still having soon to be gone 10-2 SMU. But somehow the MWC is so inferior to the AAC that even if they add OSU/WSU they will still be the worse conference? Do you actually believe that?

[818SUDSFan]

Salinas, with the horrific year SDSU had, I've been a bit out of touch with this stuff and now see that Sagarin has the MWC slightly above the AAC. Also, although the SBC East is equally superior to the MWC, combining the East and West divisions, the SBC is rated about the same as the AAC. So I stand corrected and will add that in my book, SJSU should be going to the MWC title game.

Although it's true you lost to Boise, the game was at their house and you beat UNLV in Sin City. You also beat Fresno to whom Boise lost. UNLV not only lost to you guys, they also lost to Fresno. Although UNLV and Boise both beat AFA and SJSU didn't, each such win by those two came in the last four games of the season during which the Falcons are almost always inferior to the first 2/3 of the season. Because the rest of the MWC was dog poop, wins in those games shouldn't even count.

[alum93]

On 11/27/2023 at 3:00 PM, SalinasSpartan said:

I’m not saying a 1 loss MWC champ would automatically be ranked higher than an undefeated SBC or AAC champ. I am saying that with OSU/WSU the MWC would be the best G5 conference top to bottom. Not “head and shoulders” above the SBC and AAC, but better top to bottom most years. As such, the MWC champ would be the favorite in any given year to get the playoff spot. Meaning the MWC champ probably gets the nod in any sort of “tie breaker” scenario where the MWC champ has the same record as the SBC or AAC champ. Similar to the position the AAC was in with the NY6 bowl before Cincy/Houston/UCF left.
 

 

That's kind of my point.  I was just playing the odds.  What are the odds a MWC team goes undefeated every year?  Probably not very high.  What are the odds someone from the Sun Belt, AAC goes undefeated in any given year?  Higher.  Would an undefeated Liberty from CUSA make it over a 1 loss MWC team?  So i kind of seeing it play out that the MWC will always get the bid for an undefeated team, but more often than not the undefeated team will come from another conference.  It will be interesting to watch it play out.  In a way, it's like watching the playoff committee argue about a 1 loss SEC team over a B12 or P12 team in the past.  That same scenario is going to start playing itself out at the G5 level.  Plus, i just think the top team or couple of teams are really good at the other G5 conferences as well.  How big a factor will strength of schedule be?  How much will WSU and OSU add?  We'll see.  Not bashing or being anti MWC.  I watch a lot of G5 football, and there are really good teams coast to coast.

[RSF]

On 11/27/2023 at 3:35 PM, utenation said:

What is the AAC's deal after the departures? If I remember correctly, it was around $6-7 million before. But there's always a void if the conference falls apart.  I'm not positive on the numbers and too lazy to look.

All the new schools are getting partial shares and that combined with the exit fees meant the original schools didnt have to take a hair cut financially.

[AztecSU]

On 11/27/2023 at 11:34 AM, SalinasSpartan said:

I agree, I don’t think the MWC with OSU/WSU will be “head and shoulders” above the AAC and SBC. But yea, I do believe the MWC would be the favorites every year to get the playoff spot. I mean as is it stands right now the MWC/AAC/SBC are on about equal footing. So to say that will just continue to be the case would mean you are saying that not only would OSU/WSU not be a “huge bump”, it would essentially be NO bump at all. I don’t agree with that. Sure, their operating budgets for them will be smaller than they currently are, but they will still be larger than the majority of their new peers. 

It's been 10 years since anyone from the MW played in a big-time bowl. The AAC just lost its 3 best programs and will still send their champ to an NY6.