Conference Realignment thread

[Spaztecs]

On 11/26/2023 at 12:20 AM, SalinasSpartan said:

I get that WSU is in a small town, but they are a major university in the 13th largest state. And Oregon isn’t a big state, but I mean it’s bigger than Oklahoma. 

OSU doesn't doesn't draw Texas recruits like OU does 

[WAC_FAN]

On 11/25/2023 at 1:59 PM, UofMTigers said:

if the 'Pac' wanted to simply merge with the MWC would they lose all that money or would it just belong to the new MWC?

If they wanted to merge in 2024, the money would go back to the conference members (disbursed 12 ways)

If they decide to do it 2 years from now?  Unsure, in theory WSU/OSU keep it all but they would likely have to fight a lawsuit from the old schools saying they plotted to do this.

[alum93]

Delaware to make the jump to FBS and join CUSA for 2025 season per Twitter/X.  That will give CUSA 11 teams.  

[bigd]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:09 AM, alum93 said:

Delaware to make the jump to FBS and join CUSA for 2025 season per Twitter/X.  That will give CUSA 11 teams.  

Interesting, I wonder if Missouri State or another FCS program is next?

[alum93]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:12 AM, bigd said:

Interesting, I wonder if Missouri State or another FCS program is next?

UMass possibly.  I would guess CUSA would want 12 teams.  

[SteedLaw]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:03 AM, WAC_FAN said:

If they wanted to merge in 2024, the money would go back to the conference members (disbursed 12 ways)

If they decide to do it 2 years from now?  Unsure, in theory WSU/OSU keep it all but they would likely have to fight a lawsuit from the old schools saying they plotted to do this.

Despite what people say, clock is ticking on Oregon State and WSU.

Their plan to hold onto the assets is already backfiring as coaches, staff, student athletes, and their parents are bailing on the programs. 

They are trying to hold out as long as they can with a scheduling alliance so they can ultimately keep all the PAC payout and cash. My take? It is not going to work and, with OSU losing their head coach and 5 assistants, it is already not working. 

Time to announce a reverse merger with the MWC already and give their stakeholders a future vision and a path forward. That way, they keep at least the in-kind asset, their coaches, their student athletes, and their programs.

Afterwards, the new PAC can look to renegotiate their contract and expand into Texas with two teams to create a solid 16-team conference that is head and shoulders above the rest of the G5 and will get a CFP invitation for the champion each year. 

It is not a bad path at all and they need to make it happen already before more of their stakeholders start bailing.

[SteedLaw]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:14 AM, alum93 said:

UMass possibly.  I would guess CUSA would want 12 teams.  

UMass and UConn athletics payout is way too high for CUSA-level. There is a reason those two established programs remain independent for now. 

[alum93]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:16 AM, SteedLaw said:

Despite what people say, clock is ticking on Oregon State and WSU.

Their plan to hold onto the assets is already backfiring as coaches, staff, student athletes, and their parents are bailing on the programs. 

They are trying to hold out as long as they can with a scheduling alliance so they can ultimately keep all the PAC payout and cash. My take? It is not going to work and, with OSU losing their head coach and 5 assistants, it is already not working. 

Time to announce a reverse merger with the MWC already and give their stakeholders a future vision and a path forward. That way, they keep at least the in-kind asset, their coaches, their student athletes, and their programs.

Afterwards, the new PAC can look to renegotiate their contract and expand into Texas with two teams to create a solid 16-team conference that is head and shoulders above the rest of the G5 and will get a CFP invitation for the champion each year. 

It is not a bad path at all and they need to make it happen already before more of their stakeholders start bailing.

G5 is G5.  An undefeated team from any conference will have a chance at a playoff invite, especially if they have a big non conference win over a P4 team.   The Sun Belt and AAC will compete just fine with the MWC moving forward, even with WSU and OSU added.  WSU and OSU aren't bringing their P12 programs.  They are going to be recruiting at the G5 level moving forward, with G5 money in a couple years.  Heck, Liberty out of CUSA is ranked 20th this week heading into the championship game with NMSU.

[SteedLaw]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:30 AM, alum93 said:

G5 is G5.  An undefeated team from any conference will have a chance at a playoff invite, especially if they have a big non conference win over a P4 team.   The Sun Belt and AAC will compete just fine with the MWC moving forward, even with WSU and OSU added.

We can agree to disagree on this. 
 

By the numbers and athletic department revenue and payout, the new “PAC” with OSU and WSU would be, on average, just a hair below the Big XII and would be head and shoulders above the American and the SunBelt. If you could use the momentum of the PAC brand and the addition of OSU/WSU wisely, then you could easily poach at least two of the following 4 schools — UTSA, UNT, UTEP, or Texas State. 

That would allow a renegotiated contract with significantly increased payout rates — causing an even bigger divide between the new PAC and the AAC/SunBelt. 

Again, we can agree to disagree here, but it would be improbable for the Sunbelt or the American to compete with the numbers in this scenario. 

[RSF]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:38 AM, SteedLaw said:

 

By the numbers and athletic department revenue and payout, the new “PAC” with OSU and WSU would be, on average, just a hair below the Big XII and would be head and shoulders above the American and the SunBelt. If you could use the momentum of the PAC brand and the addition of OSU/WSU wisely, then you could easily poach at least two of the following 4 schools — UTSA, UNT, UTEP, or Texas State. 

 

That's a good one.  A P10 gets offered 30 mil a year - just a hair below the Big 12 - but a marriage of the OSU, WSU and the MWC is going to get the same thing.

 

Wanting Texas State, UNT or UTEP is almost as funny.  The MWC - with or without OSU/WSU - will be just fine without them.

[SteedLaw]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:42 AM, RSF said:

That's a good one.  A P10 gets offered 30 mil a year - just a hair below the Big 12 - but a marriage of the OSU, WSU and the MWC is going to get the same thing.

 

Wanting Texas State, UNT or UTEP is almost as funny.  The MWC - with or without OSU/WSU - will be just fine without them.

I am not talking TV contracts. I am talking total AD revenue and expenditures per year as reported each year, at least by public universities. 

This is the master list. 
 

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

[alum93]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:38 AM, SteedLaw said:

We can agree to disagree on this. 
 

By the numbers and athletic department revenue and payout, the new “PAC” with OSU and WSU would be, on average, just a hair below the Big XII and would be head and shoulders above the American and the SunBelt. If you could use the momentum of the PAC brand and the addition of OSU/WSU wisely, then you could easily poach at least two of the following 4 schools — UTSA, UNT, UTEP, or Texas State. 

That would allow a renegotiated contract with significantly increased payout rates — causing an even bigger divide between the new PAC and the AAC/SunBelt. 

Again, we can agree to disagree here, but it would be improbable for the Sunbelt or the American to compete with the numbers in this scenario. 

I admire your passion, but the MWC won't be in the same universe as B12.  It is what it is.  The P4 money is insane relative to any G5 conference,  MWC/P2 included.  G5 is G5.  Might as well sit back and enjoy the ride.  Our schools are here for the long term.

[RSF]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:45 AM, SteedLaw said:

I am not talking TV contracts. I am talking total AD revenue and expenditures per year as reported each year, at least by public universities. 

This is the master list. 

And where do you think a lot of those revenues come from?  everybody in the NB12 is over 100mil in revenue except the new AAC members - and they'll be over 100mil when they get full shares.

[utenation]

On 11/27/2023 at 9:38 AM, SteedLaw said:

We can agree to disagree on this. 
 

By the numbers and athletic department revenue and payout, the new “PAC” with OSU and WSU would be, on average, just a hair below the Big XII and would be head and shoulders above the American and the SunBelt. If you could use the momentum of the PAC brand and the addition of OSU/WSU wisely, then you could easily poach at least two of the following 4 schools — UTSA, UNT, UTEP, or Texas State. 

That would allow a renegotiated contract with significantly increased payout rates — causing an even bigger divide between the new PAC and the AAC/SunBelt. 

Again, we can agree to disagree here, but it would be improbable for the Sunbelt or the American to compete with the numbers in this scenario. 

No. Not even close. The B12 total payout should be around $50 million per school. $31 mill is just media dollars. 
 

Whatever the P2/MWC becomes, it won’t be anywhere near that in media revenue and total revenue payout. 

[Billings]

On 11/27/2023 at 8:56 AM, utenation said:

No. Not even close. The B12 total payout should be around $50 million per school. $31 mill is just media dollars. 
 

Whatever the P2/MWC becomes, it won’t be anywhere near that in media revenue and total revenue payout. 

well, the pac 30 mil media deal was only media dollars as well.

 

Hoping the Mwc Media deal will climb to about 6-8 mil per team at best

[utenation]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:08 AM, Billings said:

well, the pac 30 mil media deal was only media dollars as well.

 

Hoping the Mwc Media deal will climb to about 6-8 mil per team at best

Right. I’m guessing the P10 total payout would have been low-mid $40 mill range. 

[SteedLaw]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:08 AM, Billings said:

well, the pac 30 mil media deal was only media dollars as well.

 

Hoping the Mwc Media deal will climb to about 6-8 mil per team at best

Wasn’t it reported that a new renegotiated PPS for a PAC/MWC merger would be around $8-12MM?

And, for clarification, I am not talking about competing with the Big XII in expenditures. I am talking about becoming head and shoulders above the American, the Sun Belt and the rest of the G5. 

Assuming this merger were to go through, then, by the numbers, the average expenditures of the new “PAC” would be just BELOW the Big XII and significantly higher in average than teams in those other G5 conferences. 

[utenation]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:18 AM, SteedLaw said:

Wasn’t it reported that a new renegotiated PPS for a PAC/MWC merger would be around $8-12MM?

And, for clarification, I am not talking about competing with the Big XII in expenditures. I am talking about becoming head and shoulders above the American, the Sun Belt and the rest of the G5. 

Assuming this merger were to go through, then, by the numbers, the average expenditures of the new “PAC” would be just BELOW the Big XII and significantly higher in average than teams in those other G5 conferences. 

Predicting expenditures is a fool’s errand.  It’s a moving target each year for every school.  We are talking about revenue which is more tangible to predict. 
 

I won’t argue the new MWC could be head and shoulders above the rest of the G5 conferences but comparing to the B12 is an inaccurate comparison. 

[Wyobraska]

On 11/27/2023 at 2:56 AM, Nevada Convert said:

Just saw a presser where Dickert at WSU was saying they’re a total failure with NIL so far. He said Oregon St. has 10 times the NIL money they do, Arizona 20 times the money, etc. He sounded dead serious. I’ll try to find it. He was basically pleading with the fanbase to step up. 

Will be hard to get people to open their wallets when they are trading PAC 12 games for G5 games.

[Wyobraska]

On 11/27/2023 at 10:18 AM, SteedLaw said:

Wasn’t it reported that a new renegotiated PPS for a PAC/MWC merger would be around $8-12MM?

And, for clarification, I am not talking about competing with the Big XII in expenditures. I am talking about becoming head and shoulders above the American, the Sun Belt and the rest of the G5. 

Assuming this merger were to go through, then, by the numbers, the average expenditures of the new “PAC” would be just BELOW the Big XII and significantly higher in average than teams in those other G5 conferences. 

A new Pac 12 won't be anywhere near the Big 12.  I don't see the new MWC being head and shoulders above the rest of the G5 on the field.  

The MW is not in a good spot right now and I'm not sure a few more million per year fixes things for a lot of MW schools.