Conference Realignment thread

[Headbutt]

On 11/19/2023 at 5:50 PM, wolf from 73 said:

The Athletic reportedly have sources that told them basically the same thing. They plan on going indy the next 2 years to reap all the conference money and assets. If Wilner is correct and they are not willing to use Pac money for buy-out then their only option will be to stay indy or merge with a conference. They will have a lot of money for two years but look for all their programs to take a major hit to success and become mostly irrelevant. When BYU went indy they had the backing of the LDS church so they were able to float but OSU and WS do not have that kind of following so any success will wither on the indy vine.

I think they'd stay near (if not at) the top of the MWC for quite a while.  Plenty of talent in that neck of the woods that can't get a P5 offer, and leave the region to go G5.  I'm not gonna' pretend that they'll bring in P12 level talent, but they're not going to drop to MAC level either.

[818SUDSFan]

On 11/19/2023 at 4:50 PM, wolf from 73 said:

The Athletic reportedly have sources that told them basically the same thing. They plan on going indy the next 2 years to reap all the conference money and assets. If Wilner is correct and they are not willing to use Pac money for buy-out then their only option will be to stay indy or merge with a conference. They will have a lot of money for two years but look for all their programs to take a major hit to success and become mostly irrelevant. When BYU went indy they had the backing of the LDS church so they were able to float but OSU and WS do not have that kind of following so any success will wither on the indy vine.

Perhaps given their locations, OSU/WSU would have been left behind regardless but those schools weren't exactly known for brilliant management of their football program over the years. OSU hasn't been to the Rose Bowl since January 1, 1964 when, as a member of the Pac-8, it had only seven other schools to compete against to earn that honor. Even then, OSU only went to the Rose Bowl because the Pac-8 had a rule that a school couldn't go two consecutive years and USC, which finished first, had gone the year before. WSU has been to the Rose Bowl exactly twice since its only other appearance in 1930 when the Cougars were shut out by Alabama. Make no mistake. The MWC isn't going to get significantly better in football simply by adding those two schools.

[utenation]

On 11/19/2023 at 1:03 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

I’ve never been impressed by Wilner’s reporting.  I’ve often joked that if he predicts something we should assume the opposite.  Hopefully he’s right this time.

Wilner is good at breaking down details of contracts. That’s where it ends. I heard it a few times out of his mouth that he really doesn’t have good inside sources. 
 

Sports? He claimed it would take Utah decades to make a Rose Bowl if we ever do. Sometimes this guy gets power rankings right but that’s  it. I think he’s a hack. 

[Wyobraska]

On 11/19/2023 at 12:30 PM, Billings said:

Wilner mailbag and tweets

 

PAC 2 liabilities can be as high as $35 million. Any the PAC Network is still a mess.  He also reports the PAC 2 has no intention of using PAC money to buy out or pay any schools exit fees.

 

interesting

Those two schools will have to use every dime to try and shore up their own finances when they take such a haircut on their TV deal.  

[Billings]

On 11/19/2023 at 5:55 PM, Wyobraska said:

Those two schools will have to use every dime to try and shore up their own finances when they take such a haircut on their TV deal.  

WSU has $200 million in debt and they are going to give cash away?   OSU is lobbying the Oregon legislature to help bail them out due to OU leaving.   So they just pay millions in exit fees and still need deep cuts to our budgets regardless.  Makes perfect sense.

[RSF]

Be interesting to see what happens re:P12N.  They can certainly cut costs by closing many of the local channels, perhaps even down to strictly the 1 main channel.  And none of us knows how the distribution contracts are  structured.  So the revenue the P2 can garner are a big unknown.

 

And P12N could even offer the MWC an outlet for games not televised by Fox/CBS.  Might be a sweetener for the discussed scheduling alliance.

[Headbutt]

On 11/19/2023 at 7:02 PM, RSF said:

Be interesting to see what happens re:P12N.  They can certainly cut costs by closing many of the local channels, perhaps even down to strictly the 1 main channel.  And none of us knows how the distribution channels are  structured.  So the revenue the P2 can garner are a big unknown.

I'd like to see a solid comparison of the infrastructure and operating costs of both the P12 network and the MWC network.  If this merger goes down, only one of the two will be needed (and one will be needed).  The MWC network is free streaming, and the Pac network is available on cable if you happen to have the right provider.  I wouldn't clean out anybody's office just yet, but eventually that will have to become part of the merger.  I suspect the kingmakers at ESPN, FOX, and CBS will decide all that.

[Billings]

On 11/19/2023 at 6:02 PM, RSF said:

Be interesting to see what happens re:P12N.  They can certainly cut costs by closing many of the local channels, perhaps even down to strictly the 1 main channel.  And none of us knows how the distribution contracts are  structured.  So the revenue the P2 can garner are a big unknown.

 

And P12N could even offer the MWC an outlet for games not televised by Fox/CBS.  Might be a sweetener for the discussed scheduling alliance.

I would rather see the Pac 12 N leased to an APPLE type company as a sportsproduction facility for a new streaming contract on the side.  Just brainstorming

[utenation]

On 11/19/2023 at 7:02 PM, RSF said:

Be interesting to see what happens re:P12N.  They can certainly cut costs by closing many of the local channels, perhaps even down to strictly the 1 main channel.  And none of us knows how the distribution contracts are  structured.  So the revenue the P2 can garner are a big unknown.

My guess is the contracts were structured so that any party can get out of Dodge if the conference dies or has a yard sale of 10 schools. 
 

By the end, the channel was mostly in the black as equipment and infrastructure became paid off.  But I think they offset some other conference expenses with the rev from the channel. 
 

Schools were getting around $3 mill per year from the network and that’s with big markets like LA, PHX, Seattle, Denver, Portland and SLC. 

My hunch is the channel is shut down unless some type of partner steps in. 

[Someone Else]

2 hours ago, Headbutt said:

Hyperbole of course, but you get my point.

I did get your point but to be honest I kind of felt that sentence took away from the point you were making.  

[Spaztecs]

On 11/19/2023 at 5:50 PM, wolf from 73 said:

The Athletic reportedly have sources that told them basically the same thing. They plan on going indy the next 2 years to reap all the conference money and assets. If Wilner is correct and they are not willing to use Pac money for buy-out then their only option will be to stay indy or merge with a conference. They will have a lot of money for two years but look for all their programs to take a major hit to success and become mostly irrelevant. When BYU went indy they had the backing of the LDS church so they were able to float but OSU and WS do not have that kind of following so any success will wither on the indy vine.

 

The next thing you know, the Pac 2 will be scheduling one and done payday games.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 11/17/2023 at 9:58 AM, utenation said:

So your average is 890k? Is that UCF/woosh math? 
 

lol at you trying to cherry pick games in 2022 to bring up your stinky numbers. 
 

Lil’ buddy, you need to stop on this one. You lost 4 rounds ago with this embarrassing debate. 
 

Just remember, Utah would NEVER schedule you by choice and go to your shitbox stadium. 
 

 

 

https://x.com/osmattmurschel/status/1724504403011350595?s=46

You should know by now that if I say something as a statement of fact it’s because it’s true.  You lie, I don’t.  All you do is take L’s then try to change the subject.  

Just remember, as you’ve shown us countless times, you are never correct, so nobody cares what you think about your school traveling to Florida to lose next year.  

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 11/19/2023 at 8:19 PM, Billings said:

Define a lot of $$ when you have no TV deal or incoming revenue other than Gate receipts and the lefty over NCAA BB credits.

I wonder what it will cost two schools to run a conference office and the PAC network staffing?

The NCAA credits aren’t a lump sum either, it’s a total number paid over several years.  It’ll be about 8.6m/year total or 4.3m/year for each of the PAC2. 

[utenation]

On 11/19/2023 at 10:37 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

https://x.com/osmattmurschel/status/1724504403011350595?s=46

You should know by now that if I say something as a statement of fact it’s because it’s true.  You lie, I don’t.  All you do is take L’s then try to change the subject.  

Just remember, as you’ve shown us countless times, you are never correct, so nobody cares what you think about your school traveling to Florida to lose next year.  

Boy oh Boy, where to start with this disaster of a post.

1. First you said it was 890K per game, now according to a blank, random tweet with NO supporting data, it's 840K. Yeah, nothing odd there. 

2. I posted the numbers for each of your games this year according to the link that everyone uses. On what planet does this add up to 840K? Looks like you are about 100K off per game chief.  And again, OU, Kansas and OSU fans carried the bigger games because looking at all your other games, you don't have anyone who cares about UCF. I'm betting your game against TT had about 200K viewers. 

OU 2.17 mill

Kansas 1.45

OSU 1.21

K State 531K

WVU 409K

Cincy 264K(LMFAO really?)

Baylor 340K

Kent State 317K

Boise 306K

 

3. I have some bad news for you Lil' buddy. A healthy Cam Rising is coming back to play in 2024. So I think the line against you guys in your stadium will be about Utah -16.

BTW, that Plumlee guy you call a QB wouldn't even make it as a walk on at Utah. 

   

[utenation]

Hey, @Coog kev instead of trying to hijack a UNLV thread with spam, come on over to the deep waters and I'll answer all your questions.

On 11/19/2023 at 6:57 PM, Coog kev said:

You are just p*ssed off that you got beat by TWO future XII members in two days.  Houston did it in hoops on Friday.  Arizona shut your lights out on Saturday.  Welcome to the Big Boy times.  Utah will be highly irrelevant in XII land and methinks you already know this.  

BTW in Utah, BYU delivers the media market much more so than Utah.  Sportsmediawatch is your friend.  Look it up.  

You realize Utah has been to the last 4 conference title games and won 2 of them right? It's kinda odd too that Utah gets a full share of revenue from day 1 while Houston gets a little kid's table share and you'll get more when you're out of diapers. Speaking of irrelevant, so which team out of BYU, Cincy, Houston and UCF will win last place this year? It's been a great battle all season.

Lastly, you sure about those BYU TV numbers and them carrying the market? Clearly, you've never been to Utah to watch any football.  Here's a head start. 

Utah games: 

Washington: 5.17 million

USC: 3.23 

Florida: 3.19

Oregon: 2.81

UCLA: 1.32

Baylor: 1.31

OSU: 1.28

Average: 2.62 million per game.  What about BYU?

[wolf from 73]

 According to reports last week there are 420 mill in Rose Bowl and conference distribution for the 2023-2024 season. That's what the 10 vs 2 are fighting about. It has been estimated that the Pac-2 will still receive about 200 million from Rose Bowl and conference distribution for the next 2 years. There are also about 60 mill in Turney Credits to be paid out in the next 5 years. Subtract the Pac-12 debt and they should still end-up with a substantial bundle of cash even without a media contract.

[Cowboy]

On 11/18/2023 at 12:01 AM, wolf from 73 said:

My take on this is that not only would there be a penalty against the Pac-2 for cherry picking MWC schools but those schools would still have to pay the 17 million or 34 million exit fees. Damn that's pretty locked-up.                                                                                                                                                                           Steep exit fees have stabilized Mountain West amid swirling winds of conference realignment                https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2023-08-26/san-diego-state-sdsu-aztecs-mountain-west-exit-fees-commissioner-craig-thompson-conference-realignment

 

Sam Diego State signed their own death warrant when they agreed to that 17 million/34 million.

So stupid.

[Nevada Convert]

On 11/20/2023 at 1:48 AM, Cowboy said:

 

Sam Diego State signed their own death warrant when they agreed to that 17 million/34 million.

So stupid.

What’s really cool is I don’t even have to pay your mom a dime. Just a nickel. 

[Headbutt]

On 11/20/2023 at 2:48 AM, Cowboy said:

 

Sam Diego State signed their own death warrant when they agreed to that 17 million/34 million.

So stupid.

LOL.  You don't know that SDSU voted for it.  My money says they voted no, but lost.

[Billings]

On 11/19/2023 at 8:10 PM, Spaztecs said:

 

The next thing you know, the Pac 2 will be scheduling one and done payday games.

I am thinking CAL may be doing that as well for a few years