Conference Realignment thread

[jdgaucho]

On 11/17/2023 at 7:46 PM, Spaztecs said:

It doesn't matter. The MW has insisted upon a large financial penalty if they cherry pick Schools.

That or no scheduling agreement.

 

Smart negotiating.

[wolf from 73]

On 11/17/2023 at 7:46 PM, Spaztecs said:

It doesn't matter. The MW has insisted upon a large financial penalty if they cherry pick Schools.

That or no scheduling agreement.

My take on this is that not only would there be a penalty against the Pac-2 for cherry picking MWC schools but those schools would still have to pay the 17 million or 34 million exit fees. Damn that's pretty locked-up.                                                                                                                                                                           Steep exit fees have stabilized Mountain West amid swirling winds of conference realignment                https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/story/2023-08-26/san-diego-state-sdsu-aztecs-mountain-west-exit-fees-commissioner-craig-thompson-conference-realignment

[wolf from 73]

Oregon State, Washington State discussing alliance with Mountain West: Sources                        https://theathletic.com/5068234/2023/11/16/oregon-state-washington-state-conference-future/

[HR_Poke]

On 11/17/2023 at 10:19 PM, wolf from 73 said:

Oregon State, Washington State discussing alliance with Mountain West: Sources                        https://theathletic.com/5068234/2023/11/16/oregon-state-washington-state-conference-future/

Paywall

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 11/17/2023 at 10:46 PM, Spaztecs said:

It doesn't matter. The MW has insisted upon a large financial penalty if they cherry pick Schools.

That or no scheduling agreement.

It does matter, but hopeful nonetheless.

[smithy]

Well there is one ace in the hole that the MW has and is having Gloria as are commish and not hair anymore.  I'm sure she will steer it straight so the MW will get their share of the money. Looking to see what CBS and FOX will contribute in. Streaming rights maybe a good money maker for the individual schools to negotiate on their own.

[Dealwit]

Per Dellenger, the agreement would require a long-term commitment to the Mountain West from Oregon State and Washington State and language preventing the two schools from poaching “only a portion of [Mountain West] schools” at a future time.
 

Gloria looking out for the entire MWC.

[Headbutt]

We'll see where it all goes.  We already know that WSU/OSU will make their case, but it's not up to them.  We already know that the MWC holds a lot of leverage in this, but it's not up to them.  ESPN, FOX, and CBS are the king makers.  It's up to them.  I'm not opposed to a heavy streaming deal.  Premium matchups belong on TV, but if it's not going to rake in a ton of eyeballs then I'll happily trade OTA/cable for a decent kickoff time.  UNLV v AFA today belonged on TV.  Reno at Fort Collins was on The MW Network, and that's where it belonged with a 1PM kickoff.  Whatever works.  Just show us the money, and the media partners will decide everything.  As long as we get paid, I'm fine with whatever.

[Brew_Poke]

On 11/16/2023 at 11:46 AM, Beaver-Poke said:

This makes sense but it should be an 8+1. No reason for a 12-team league to only play seven of a possible 11 conference rivals in a 12-game schedule. OOC scheduling is tough for most MWC schools. Play 8 (or 9) conference games plus either OSU and WSU and scheduling becomes much easier. I'd rather watch a league game than Wofford or UC Davis or Northern Colorado. 

Air Force would cry.

[Billings]

Wilner mailbag and tweets

 

PAC 2 liabilities can be as high as $35 million. Any the PAC Network is still a mess.  He also reports the PAC 2 has no intention of using PAC money to buy out or pay any schools exit fees.

 

interesting

[Billings]

On 11/19/2023 at 5:40 AM, Brew_Poke said:

Air Force would cry.

you would almost have to let them count NAVY as a conference game frankly

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 11/19/2023 at 9:30 AM, Billings said:

Wilner mailbag and tweets

 

PAC 2 liabilities can be as high as $35 million. Any the PAC Network is still a mess.  He also reports the PAC 2 has no intention of using PAC money to buy out or pay any schools exit fees.

 

interesting

I’ve never been impressed by Wilner’s reporting.  I’ve often joked that if he predicts something we should assume the opposite.  Hopefully he’s right this time.

[818SUDSFan]

On 11/19/2023 at 11:30 AM, Billings said:

Wilner mailbag and tweets

PAC 2 liabilities can be as high as $35 million. Any the PAC Network is still a mess.  He also reports the PAC 2 has no intention of using PAC money to buy out or pay any schools exit fees.

True dat. However, he goes on to say this: 

If the arrangement with the Mountain West falls apart — it has not been finalized and depends largely on the financial terms — the Cougars and Beavers have a backup plan for their football schedules.

Central to the overall strategy is a competitive support structure for their other sports, including men’s and women’s basketball. The Mountain West would make the ideal partner, but the West Coast Conference and Big West could serve as options, as well.

If by that is meant OSU/WSU think that if they can't work out a satisfactory deal with the MWC for football that they'll go independent for that sport, they're nuts. Didn't the NMSU poster here point out that the combined population of Corvallis and Pullman is less than that of Las Cruces?

[utgrizfan]

On 11/19/2023 at 1:03 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

I’ve never been impressed by Wilner’s reporting.  I’ve often joked that if he predicts something we should assume the opposite.  Hopefully he’s right this time.

If this is the case and taking into account the other reported shenanigans being true (exploring scheduling with the Sun Belt for example) seems like the PAC2 only have 2 options left to them. 

-The VERY unlikely but WILL be pursued: Try to buy or find their way into either the Big12 or ACC or remain Independent and wait for something to open up for them.

-The MOST likely: Merge with the MWC fully with the entire MWC joining the PAC2 or vice versa.

[Headbutt]

On 11/19/2023 at 1:16 PM, utgrizfan said:

If this is the case and taking into account the other reported shenanigans being true (exploring scheduling with the Sun Belt for example) seems like the PAC2 only have 2 options left to them. 

-The VERY unlikely but WILL be pursued: Try to buy or find their way into either the Big12 or ACC or remain Independent and wait for something to open up for them.

-The MOST likely: Merge with the MWC fully with the entire MWC joining the PAC2 or vice versa.

You missed the one where the best teams in America undermine their current conference in order to join two remote teams in a conference with no media contract, no bowl tie-ins, no autobid to the NCAA BB tournament, and no secondary "at large" route to the CFP.  This seems to be the most likely scenario according to some.

[utgrizfan]

On 11/19/2023 at 1:32 PM, Headbutt said:

You missed the one where the best teams in America undermine their current conference in order to join two remote teams in a conference with no media contract, no bowl tie-ins, no autobid to the NCAA BB tournament, and no secondary "at large" route to the CFP.  This seems to be the most likely scenario according to some.

I know some people have been pushing that (and as it would give the best opportunity for both Montana and MSU to potentially get called up I wish it would happen) but I am a realist and it would take to many things to work out perfectly in order to happen. They'd have to:

-Get a Media deal that's worthwhile to make teams move, only way they could is if they showed the TV people a list of teams and get a projected figured. 

-Show said projected figure to desired teams and convince them to move, they'd then most likely pay expensive exit fees with risk of lawsuits/legal action from other schools.

-THEN they'd have to try and keep some Bowl Tie Ins for this projected new Conference.

I'd have to file it under the LEAST likely scenario, despite the fact it would be the best chance for Montana to get to FBS. 

 

[Someone Else]

3 hours ago, Headbutt said:

You missed the one where the best teams in America undermine their current conference in order to join two remote teams in a conference with no media contract, no bowl tie-ins, no autobid to the NCAA BB tournament, and no secondary "at large" route to the CFP.  This seems to be the most likely scenario according to some.

Best teams in America? Georgia & Alabama?

[Headbutt]

On 11/19/2023 at 4:35 PM, Someone Else said:

Best teams in America? Georgia & Alabama?

Hyperbole of course, but you get my point.

[wolf from 73]

On 11/19/2023 at 12:15 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

True dat. However, he goes on to say this: 

If the arrangement with the Mountain West falls apart — it has not been finalized and depends largely on the financial terms — the Cougars and Beavers have a backup plan for their football schedules.

Central to the overall strategy is a competitive support structure for their other sports, including men’s and women’s basketball. The Mountain West would make the ideal partner, but the West Coast Conference and Big West could serve as options, as well.

If by that is meant OSU/WSU think that if they can't work out a satisfactory deal with the MWC for football that they'll go independent for that sport, they're nuts. Didn't the NMSU poster here point out that the combined population of Corvallis and Pullman is less than that of Las Cruces?

The Athletic reportedly have sources that told them basically the same thing. They plan on going indy the next 2 years to reap all the conference money and assets. If Wilner is correct and they are not willing to use Pac money for buy-out then their only option will be to stay indy or merge with a conference. They will have a lot of money for two years but look for all their programs to take a major hit to success and become mostly irrelevant. When BYU went indy they had the backing of the LDS church so they were able to float but OSU and WS do not have that kind of following so any success will wither on the indy vine.

[Billings]

On 11/19/2023 at 4:50 PM, wolf from 73 said:

The Athletic reportedly have sources that told them basically the same thing. They plan on going indy the next 2 years to reap all the conference money and assets. If Wilner is correct and they are not willing to use Pac money for buy-out then their only option will be to stay indy or merge with a conference. They will have a lot of money for two years but look for all their programs to take a major hit to success and become mostly irrelevant. When BYU went indy they had the backing of the LDS church so they were able to float but OSU and WS do not have that kind of following so any success will wither on the indy vine.

Define a lot of $$ when you have no TV deal or incoming revenue other than Gate receipts and the lefty over NCAA BB credits.

I wonder what it will cost two schools to run a conference office and the PAC network staffing?