Conference Realignment thread

[renoskier]

On 11/14/2023 at 10:31 AM, Someone Else said:

So let's say OSU/WSU want to keep the P12 (or 10 or 8 ) going as opposed to just a straight merger with the MWC... what's stopping the schools OSU/WSU want to add from scheduling them next year to help them out of the jam they are in?

The MWC sets the league schedule. Other than early season games, it would probably be impossible to fit in more than one or two games without the cooperation of the league office.

[utenation]

On 11/14/2023 at 12:16 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

No woosh. UCF is firmly holding down the bottom of the B12 standings. Unfortunately, that's not good for conference image. We've already covered your embarrassing TV ratings this year in this thread. When a conference is paying you big boy bucks and you offer nothing in return, that's carrying a bad product on the books. The rest of the good teams in the conference earned your paycheck for you.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 11/14/2023 at 2:22 PM, utenation said:

No woosh. UCF is firmly holding down the bottom of the B12 standings. Unfortunately, that's not good for conference image. We've already covered your embarrassing TV ratings this year in this thread. When a conference is paying you big boy bucks and you offer nothing in return, that's carrying a bad product on the books. The rest of the conference earned your paycheck for you.

And despite our sheer bad luck earlier in the season we’re only two games behind you, whats your excuse? Good luck next year..

Our ratings are very good considering the channels we’ve been on, above average for the slot and mostly better than the same ones last year.  You’re not good at this, and you’re NEVER right anyway.  You obviously (incogently) lash out against your insecurities and frankly don’t warrant responses, but it’s important to make mentally ill individuals like yourself feel heard and a part of something so they don’t do truly stupid real life things; it’s a burden we all bear for your benefit.  You are welcome.

[Billings]

On 11/14/2023 at 10:47 AM, utenation said:

The biggest adjustment will be taking a huge haircut on budgets. Also, Jonathan Smith with OSU for example is an excellent coach of a top 10 team, I don't think he sticks around long term once OSU loses power status. Let's face it, most top recruits want to play at a P5 school. NIL money will also be affected.  Smith just signed an extension through 2028 making just over $5 mill per year.  He won't have a hard time finding a job at a good P5 school if he goes that route. 

 

OSU just dumped big bucks on a stadium renovation. All these things were done and planned while they were making P12 money. 

Yes but OSU paid mostly cash for stadium renovations 

[RSF]

On 11/14/2023 at 1:33 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

And despite our sheer bad luck earlier in the season we’re only two games behind you, whats your excuse? Good luck next year..

Our ratings are very good considering the channels we’ve been on, above average for the slot and mostly better than the same ones last year.  You’re not good at this, and you’re NEVER right anyway.  You obviously (incogently) lash out against your insecurities and frankly don’t warrant responses, but it’s important to make mentally ill individuals like yourself feel heard and a part of something so they don’t do truly stupid real life things; it’s a burden we all bear for your benefit.  You are welcome.

[utenation]

On 11/14/2023 at 12:33 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

And despite our sheer bad luck earlier in the season we’re only two games behind you, whats your excuse? Good luck next year..

Our ratings are very good considering the channels we’ve been on, above average for the slot and mostly better than the same ones last year.  You’re not good at this, and you’re NEVER right anyway.  You obviously (incogently) lash out against your insecurities and frankly don’t warrant responses, but it’s important to make mentally ill individuals like yourself feel heard and a part of something so they don’t do truly stupid real life things; it’s a burden we all bear for your benefit.  You are welcome.

Bad luck in 5 games? Yikes. Someone doesn't live in reality.  Utah hasn't left the T25 since 2019, not counting Covid.

This year we've lost to #5 Washington, #6 Oregon and # 10 OSU. Two games on the road. We're playing a 3rd string walk on QB. 7 starters are out for the year with injuries. We started the season without 8 starters or key players.  That's called depth little man. And a hall of fame coach. We will likely end at 9-10 wins in a very good conference.

What about you folks? 

[utenation]

On 11/14/2023 at 12:35 PM, Billings said:

Yes but OSU paid mostly cash for stadium renovations 

Going forward is the issue. I wouldn't want to be the AD figuring out how to adjust to around half of your previous budget.

[Billings]

On 11/14/2023 at 11:44 AM, utenation said:

Going forward is the issue. I wouldn't want to be the AD figuring out how to adjust to around half of your previous budget.

Agree but a huge stadium bond is not part of the issue

[utenation]

On 11/14/2023 at 12:33 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

Our ratings are very good considering the channels we’ve been on, above average for the slot and mostly better than the same ones last year. 

Do you need new glasses? I posted your ratings last week.  Most of your games were in the 300-500K viewers range. Your games with OU and Kansas were the only decent ratings and that was clearly OU and KU fans carrying the load.

When you played Cincy a few weeks ago you had 264K viewers.  

This has nothing to do with what channel you are on when your ratings are this terrible.  It's called nobody cares and wants to watch your team on any channel.  

[wolf from 73]

On 11/14/2023 at 10:04 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

Here’s an update from Ross Dellenger (a better source than Wilner IMHO):

https://sports.yahoo.com/who-will-control-pac-12-moving-forward-tuesdays-hearing-could-have-wide-ranging-impacts-140006253.html

What’s interesting is that he reports OSU and WSU recently reached out to the Sun Belt (!) about a football scheduling alliance.  The Sun Belt presidents said no.

Why would OSU and WSU do this?  Well, it seems their talks with the MWC have run into a snag:

Oregon State and Washington State, clearly still toying with the idea of rebuilding the conference, have been in discussion with the Mountain West over a scheduling alliance to complete a 12-game slate in the short term. But that comes with strings. The Mountain West wants a more long-term commitment and financial incentives as part of any alliance.

Several folks on this board including myself have previously posted that the MWC would be foolish to grant OSU and WSU a scheduling alliance without receiving some commitment to a long-term relationship, e.g. a merger or reverse-merger, in return. Otherwise the conference would be opening the door to OSU and WSU potentially cherry-picking a subset of MWC members to rebuild the Pac after the alliance ended.

Apparently Nevarez and a majority of the MWC presidents are thinking along the same lines. They don’t want to get suckered into a deal as a group that could result in some of them later being left behind individually.  So OSU and WSU have gone looking for other potential scheduling partners… so far without success.

The fact that they went to the Sun Belt it would appear that they do not want to give the MWC a long term commitment or financial incentives to do a scheduling agreement. They hope to win enough of the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 money estimated to be about 500 mil in-order to poach the schools of their choice. Time to shut the door and play hardball, Join us or go your own way.

[SalinasSpartan]

On 11/14/2023 at 8:23 AM, Spaztecs said:

If OS/Wazzu win, they will literally hand pick their Conference.  Probably 4-6 MW Schools and some Texas Schools  So, it should be of interest to all our MW brethren.

If they lose it is an MW/Pac14.

How much more TV money per year will they get to have a conference with “4-6 MW schools and some Texas schools” as opposed to just a Pac-14 with the MWC schools?

[utenation]

On 11/14/2023 at 12:51 PM, Billings said:

Agree but a huge stadium bond is not part of the issue

They will still have to pay those bonds back. Over 35 years won't be a huge blow but I can promise you they were counting on continued P5 status and money in their planning. 

 

It leaves OSU in a potentially complicated position, because $45 million in bonds were used to fund the new Reser Stadium construction, on top of over $90 million provided by donors. OSU must pay back those bonds over a 35-year period with revenues generated by football games and other stadium-related functions.Aug 8, 2023

[818SUDSFan]

On 11/14/2023 at 11:56 AM, wolf from 73 said:

The fact that they went to the Sun Belt it would appear that they do not want to give the MWC a long term commitment or financial incentives to do a scheduling agreement. They hope to win enough of the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 money estimated to be about 500 mil in-order to poach the schools of their choice. Time to shut the door and play hardball, Join us or go your own way.

Much as some fans of MWC schools will argue to the contrary, if OSU/WSU emerge victorious over the P-10 in court, they have very little to lose by being a P-2 in 2024-2025. What will be very interesting will be whether in the coming months Nevarez as MWC commissioner (at least temporarily) will be able to persuade all her 12 bosses to put together an offer to OSU/WSU that will dissuade the two from trying to steal 6-9 current MWC members.

Although I don't see anybody discussing it right now, it's not inconceivable that a deal could be worked out to allow 6 MWC schools to leave while making it financially favorable for the other 6 to let them go.

[wolf from 73]

On 11/14/2023 at 12:04 PM, SalinasSpartan said:

How much more TV money per year will they get to have a conference with “4-6 MW schools and some Texas schools” as opposed to just a Pac-14 with the MWC schools?

Exactly, the two saw all that money and got greedy. The cost will be no schedule beyond this year for any of their sports, extended legal battle with mounting billable hours, operating costs, incurred debt, no media deal all this when the portal and recruiting is about to begin.

[wolf from 73]

On 11/14/2023 at 12:12 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

Much as some fans of MWC schools will argue to the contrary, if OSU/WSU emerge victorious over the P-10 in court, they have very little to lose by being a P-2 in 2024-2025. What will be very interesting will be whether in the coming months Nevarez as MWC commissioner (at least temporarily) will be able to persuade all her 12 bosses to put together an offer to OSU/WSU that will dissuade the two from trying to steal 6-9 current MWC members.

Although I don't see anybody discussing it right now, it's not inconceivable that a deal could be worked out to allow 6 MWC schools to leave while making it financially favorable for the other 6 to let them go.

At the moment nobody knows the outcome of the litigation. It is conceivable after all the appeals are exhausted that the 2 may only receive a fraction of what they were hoping for or expecting. That alone would be to great of a gamble for any school to take.

[jdgaucho]

On 11/14/2023 at 12:24 PM, wolf from 73 said:

At the moment nobody knows that outcome of the litigation. It is conceivable after all the appeals are exhausted that the 2 may only receive a fraction of what they were hoping for or expecting. That alone would be to great of a gamble for any school to take.

 

The siren song those 2 are putting out may be too strong to resist for certain members

[Nevada Convert]

There’s no way a fair judge is going to disallow all of this years money for the schools that have committed to leave next year. Exit penalty sure. 

[RSF]

I'm no lawyer, and I didnt stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but a reading of the P12 bylaws seems pretty clear.  The departing members are entitled to their share of the 23-24 revenue distribution, and OSU/WSU is entitled to the rest of the assets and the right to control the board.

[utenation]

On 11/14/2023 at 1:27 PM, Nevada Convert said:

There’s no way a fair judge is going to disallow all of this years money for the schools that have committed to leave next year. Exit penalty sure. 

As long as Utah gets our fiscal year 23/24 paycheck,  I'm good.  They can have whatever is left going forward. We will be fine moving forward. 

[Billings]

On 11/14/2023 at 12:04 PM, utenation said:

They will still have to pay those bonds back. Over 35 years won't be a huge blow but I can promise you they were counting on continued P5 status and money in their planning. 

 

It leaves OSU in a potentially complicated position, because $45 million in bonds were used to fund the new Reser Stadium construction, on top of over $90 million provided by donors. OSU must pay back those bonds over a 35-year period with revenues generated by football games and other stadium-related functions.Aug 8, 2023

OSU AD was confident gate receipts would cover bond.  Certainly cuts into any profit