Conference Realignment thread

[wolf from 73]

Hancock said the current revenue distribution plan will “philosophically” remain the same.

Last year, each Power Five conference received $74 million. The other five Bowl Subdivision conferences shared $95 million. Notre Dame received $3.55 million, and the other six FBS independents shared $1.88 million.

Currently, conferences of teams that make the CFP earn a $6 million bonus.

All of those figures will go up.                                                                     https://apnews.com/article/college-football-entertainment-sports-802d4685eba648e5ba6c098c72a92e6f                                                                                                                                                                                                            So yes if the P12 remains a P5 with the addition of the MWC teams they will receive more than 74 million.

 

[wolf from 73]

On 10/13/2023 at 7:19 PM, wolf from 73 said:

Hancock said the current revenue distribution plan will “philosophically” remain the same.

Last year, each Power Five conference received $74 million. The other five Bowl Subdivision conferences shared $95 million. Notre Dame received $3.55 million, and the other six FBS independents shared $1.88 million.

Currently, conferences of teams that make the CFP earn a $6 million bonus.

All of those figures will go up.                                                                     https://apnews.com/article/college-football-entertainment-sports-802d4685eba648e5ba6c098c72a92e6f                                                                                                                                                                                                            So yes if the P12 remains a P5 with the addition of the MWC teams they will receive more than 74 million.

 

If the new P12 can manage to retain P5 for 2 more years with the addition of the MWC teams there would be a good chance that it would stick. Each team would receive about 15mil in total distribution assuming we can bump our media to about 7mill per team. At that level of distribution we could elevate the entire conference in football. We could also poach any G4 team if we chose to. That's a lot of things that would have to break our way but the first step would be for the Pac2 to have a  successful outcome through arbitration.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 10/13/2023 at 10:19 PM, wolf from 73 said:

Hancock said the current revenue distribution plan will “philosophically” remain the same.

Last year, each Power Five conference received $74 million. The other five Bowl Subdivision conferences shared $95 million. Notre Dame received $3.55 million, and the other six FBS independents shared $1.88 million.

Currently, conferences of teams that make the CFP earn a $6 million bonus.

All of those figures will go up.                                                                     https://apnews.com/article/college-football-entertainment-sports-802d4685eba648e5ba6c098c72a92e6f                                                                                                                                                                                                            So yes if the P12 remains a P5 with the addition of the MWC teams they will receive more than 74 million.

 

They aren’t going to though, point is moot.  Who’s going to want to pay that money to the new MW/PAC conference outside of those schools and their fans? The other power conferences/ schools aren’t going to want to dilute their share for anyone, particularly a far-fetched regional conference and the media partners aren’t in the business of giving more handouts in this economy to anyone except maybe the top 2 conferences, especially not to a low leverage regional conference.  It doesn’t make sense, or cents at this point.  I understand this is a discussion board but there’s legitimately no ‘why’ to make it happen or ‘how’ it’s going to happen.  

[wolf from 73]

On 10/14/2023 at 12:19 AM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

They aren’t going to though, point is moot.  Who’s going to want to pay that money to the new MW/PAC conference outside of those schools and their fans? The other power conferences/ schools aren’t going to want to dilute their share for anyone, particularly a far-fetched regional conference and the media partners aren’t in the business of giving more handouts in this economy to anyone except maybe the top 2 conferences, especially not to a low leverage regional conference.  It doesn’t make sense, or cents at this point.  I understand this is a discussion board but there’s legitimately no ‘why’ to make it happen or ‘how’ it’s going to happen.  

Don't be so sure, It depends on how the legalities are written. My understanding is that the P2 will have 2 years to meet the criteria for the definition of P5. My guess is they merge and keep the Pac12 brand they will still qualify as a P5 for 2 years. After that who knows it probably depends on how successful they are on the field and viewership. It will probably be easier for the committee to let them have that designation for 2 years rather than risk a costly lawsuit. 

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

On 10/14/2023 at 3:56 AM, wolf from 73 said:

Don't be so sure, It depends on how the legalities are written. My understanding is that the P2 will have 2 years to meet the criteria for the definition of P5. My guess is they merge and keep the Pac12 brand they will still qualify as a P5 for 2 years. After that who knows it probably depends on how successful they are on the field and viewership. It will probably be easier for the committee to let them have that designation for 2 years rather than risk a costly lawsuit. 

I’m not talking in absolutes here, I’m asking for a reason why those things would happen.  In matters of practicality it just doesn’t seem feasible.  The legalities will ultimately benefit the partners and be brokered by the P4.  The PAC may exist in name only after this year but it will have to earn spots/money; nothing is going to carry over and there won’t be any good will loaned out.  Still not even sure the name will carryover at this point.  Most likely outcome is MWC plus wazzu and beavs.  

[RSF]

On 10/14/2023 at 2:56 AM, wolf from 73 said:

Don't be so sure, It depends on how the legalities are written. My understanding is that the P2 will have 2 years to meet the criteria for the definition of P5. My guess is they merge and keep the Pac12 brand they will still qualify as a P5 for 2 years. After that who knows it probably depends on how successful they are on the field and viewership. It will probably be easier for the committee to let them have that designation for 2 years rather than risk a costly lawsuit. 

There is no formal definition of a P5.  They have 2 years to get back to the requisite number of schools to be a conference.  The other power conferences will ultimately decide their fate, and they're not historically good about sharing.  Loss of status is a question of when, not if.

[RebelAlliance]

On 10/13/2023 at 8:57 PM, wolf from 73 said:

I checked 10 years back and could not find where the G5 has ever had 2 teams in the top 12. Perhaps further back when BYU, Utah and TCU were G5 but I didn't check the championship structure for that time.

Maybe it was a case where the second G5 was the 6th highest conference champ (ahead of one of the P5 champs).  Something like G5 #2 was ranked 16 while the worst P5 was ranked #20.  In any case, it was a fluke and certainly won't be happening often.

[Jeffkills]

It appears the MW remains and the PAC brand is discarded.  

Plus 2 only. 

[SteedLaw]

On 10/14/2023 at 7:02 AM, RSF said:

There is no formal definition of a P5.  They have 2 years to get back to the requisite number of schools to be a conference.  The other power conferences will ultimately decide their fate, and they're not historically good about sharing.  Loss of status is a question of when, not if.

Complete BS.

[SteedLaw]

On 10/14/2023 at 9:33 AM, Jeffkills said:

It appears the MW remains and the PAC brand is discarded.  

Plus 2 only. 

Where are you seeing this?

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 10/14/2023 at 6:34 AM, SteedLaw said:

Complete BS.

I disagree with RSF’s assertion that there’s no formal definition of a power conference.  On the NCAA side, a subset of five FBS conferences have a recognized autonomy status that other FBS conferences don’t have.  On the CFP side, the revenue distribution agreement entitles the five FBS autonomy conferences to much larger per-school payouts than the other FBS conferences receive.  Taken together those arrangements define the five FBS autonomy conferences as power conferences, and the Pac is one of them.

However I wholly agree with RSF’s assertion that the other four power conferences will ultimately decide the Pac’s fate, and that they’re “not historically good about sharing.”  OSU and WSU may succeed in preserving the Pac as a legal entity, but I think he’s absolutely correct that it’s just a matter of time before the other four power conferences engineer an end to the Pac’s NCAA autonomy status and entitlement to top-tier CFP payouts.

[wolf from 73]

If the Pac2 succeed in preserving their conference and gain control of most Pac12 assets and quickly move to merge with the MWC under the Pac12 brand, then I believe they will try to remain a P5 conference as they have publicly stated. This would be the only reason that would make it advantageous for the MWC to dissolve. With the likely possibility of keeping P5 for two years you can bet that Glo will draw up a road map that will give the Pac12 the best possible chance to remain P5 going forward. Depending on the field performance the argument might go: we are the top 5 FBS football conference, top 6 basketball conference etc. This would be an uphill fight and the odds are definitely against success but they need to go all out and try. This is most likely the final ship that will sail or sink for Western football teams.

[HawaiiMongoose]

On 10/14/2023 at 9:10 AM, wolf from 73 said:

If the Pac2 succeed in preserving their conference and gain control of most Pac12 assets and quickly move to merge with the MWC under the Pac12 brand, then I believe they will try to remain a P5 conference as they have publicly stated. This would be the only reason that would make it advantageous for the MWC to dissolve. With the likely possibility of keeping P5 for two years you can bet that Glow will draw up a road map the will give the Pac12 the best possible chance to remain P5 going forward. Depending on the field performance the argument might go: we are the top 5 FBS football conference, top 6 basketball conference etc. This would be an uphill fight and the odds are definitely against success but they need to go all out and try. This is most likely the final ship that will sail or sink for Western football teams.

I’d be happy to see the Pac2+MWC try.  We can all have different views about their chances of success but I think most of us would agree that they have nothing to lose.

[Shaker]

Not sure how credible some of these are but I have read 6-7 articles from different people stating OSU and WSU are leaning towards being a 2 team conference for the 2024 season. And they are already working on filling sports schedules that reflect this. Not one of the articles discusses what will happen after the 2024 season. But may be a few months before anybody really knows what is going to happen with a merger/expansion with the PAC2

 

[wolf from 73]

On 10/14/2023 at 12:29 PM, Shaker said:

Not sure how credible some of these are but I have read 6-7 articles from different people stating OSU and WSU are leaning towards being a 2 team conference for the 2024 season. And they are already working on filling sports schedules that reflect this. Not one of the articles discusses what will happen after the 2024 season. But may be a few months before anybody really knows what is going to happen with a merger/expansion with the PAC2

 

I have read a few myself and if that turns out to be the case, well then their desire to remain a P5 conference will have no chance to come to fruition. I can see them doing this for that big fat paycheck at the end of the year that the two can split. The cost however will be joining the MWC after 2 years and becoming the top G5 and no chance at P5 again.

[RSF]

On 10/14/2023 at 11:34 AM, SteedLaw said:

Complete BS.

And yet...

[818SUDSFan]

On 10/14/2023 at 6:02 AM, RSF said:

There is no formal definition of a P5.  They have 2 years to get back to the requisite number of schools to be a conference.  The other power conferences will ultimately decide their fate, and they're not historically good about sharing.  Loss of status is a question of when, not if.

What you said.

It's not surprising what wolf73's school wasn't yet in the MWC when the conference was on the cusp of becoming an automatic qualifier for a BCS bowl. Personally, I got all excited at the prospect of that not anticipating that Utah and TCU were about to be promoted out of this league.

[RSF]

On 10/14/2023 at 1:35 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

I disagree with RSF’s assertion that there’s no formal definition of a power conference.  On the NCAA side, a subset of five FBS conferences have a recognized autonomy status that other FBS conferences don’t have.  On the CFP side, the revenue distribution agreement entitles the five FBS autonomy conferences to much larger per-school payouts than the other FBS conferences receive.  Taken together those arrangements define the five FBS autonomy conferences as power conferences, and the Pac is one of them.

'Autonomy' is an codified designation in the NCAA bylaws for the purpose of defining rules.  But it has nothing to do with the CFP because the NCAA has little to nothing to do with it.  It's organized and run by the conferences.  'Power 5' is a strictly media driven label.  The Pac could be cut out of the big bucks of the CFP and still theoretically remain an Autonomy conference.

[818SUDSFan]

On 10/14/2023 at 12:29 PM, Shaker said:

Not sure how credible some of these are but I have read 6-7 articles from different people stating OSU and WSU are leaning towards being a 2 team conference for the 2024 season. And they are already working on filling sports schedules that reflect this. Not one of the articles discusses what will happen after the 2024 season. But may be a few months before anybody really knows what is going to happen with a merger/expansion with the PAC2

FYI, I read everything I can find about that and word among some journalists or wannabes is that the P2 have been in discussions with Nevarez about their options going forward. Nothing should be expected until after resolution of the P2's litigation with the P10 but since the next hearing date is November 14, that should happen within the month. Assuming a settlement is reached or the P2 largely prevail, their first step will be to fire George K. I would expect their next step to be the hiring of Nevarez with or without a concurrent merger of sorts with the MWC. If it's without a simultaneous merger, this thread will REALLY be on fire.

[OzzyOzz]

On 10/14/2023 at 12:10 PM, wolf from 73 said:

If the Pac2 succeed in preserving their conference and gain control of most Pac12 assets and quickly move to merge with the MWC under the Pac12 brand, then I believe they will try to remain a P5 conference as they have publicly stated. This would be the only reason that would make it advantageous for the MWC to dissolve. With the likely possibility of keeping P5 for two years you can bet that Glow will draw up a road map the will give the Pac12 the best possible chance to remain P5 going forward. Depending on the field performance the argument might go: we are the top 5 FBS football conference, top 6 basketball conference etc. This would be an uphill fight and the odds are definitely against success but they need to go all out and try. This is most likely the final ship that will sail or sink for Western football teams.

Someone who makes sense...there is nothing to lose. And it's the thing that will matter most to WSU/OSU..