Conference Realignment thread

[RSF]

On 9/19/2023 at 3:10 PM, bornontheblue said:

Not true anymore. Check the fine print in the app. By default they pass along your viewing habits to Nielson 

I stand corrected...sorta.  They still rely on their meters and diaries, but they do they streaming into account.

 

https://panels.nielsen.com/us-nielsen-homes/

[happycamper]

On 9/19/2023 at 3:06 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

What evidence do you have to support your contention the MWC will double its TV revenue to $8M each under its new deal? I also don't understand why you think travel expenses would be greater for a Pac-8 than a MWC 12. As an example, the only problematic travel for SDSU athletes would be to Pullman and how different would that be than traveling to Laramie?

when sdsu loses in pullman they'll only be able to blame the remote location and the weather instead of the remote location, the weather, and the altitude 

[jewelz4562000]

On 9/19/2023 at 1:41 PM, RSF said:

Neilsen ratings dont track such viewership.  so, at this point, if you're watching on YTTV or Fubo or whatever, it doesnt register.  Yet.

Surprised they haven't figured that out yet.  I've been on Hulu live, then YTTV for like like the last 6+ years

[HR_Poke]

On 9/19/2023 at 4:25 PM, happycamper said:

when sdsu loses in pullman they'll only be able to blame the remote location and the weather instead of the remote location, the weather, and the altitude 

Then we get 2 decades of "the northwest schools are holding us back"

[wolfpack1]

On 9/19/2023 at 11:28 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

This is where the rebuttal comes in.

What shred of evidence exists that any media company is prepared to pay twice as much to a subset of MWC schools than those schools would be paid otherwise, just because OSU and WSU are now in the picture?

I know it’s an awful thing to accept and deal with for OSU and WSU, but the reality is that what previously separated them from MWC schools with respect to athletics was their association with the other Pac schools.  That association is now gone, and along with it, the power conference visibility, revenue and recruiting advantages that allowed them to sustain a competitive edge versus what are otherwise peer schools in the MWC.  Going forward there is no reason for the media companies to expect OSU and WSU to outperform the top MWC schools, and consequently, to place any greater valuation on OSU’s or WSU’s broadcast rights than on Boise State’s, Fresno State’s, or San Diego State’s.

Before any of this happened the MWC was already looking forward to a new media deal that might bump the per-school payout from $4 million per school up to perhaps $8 million per school.  Now that renegotiation can take place sooner, and it may still yield $8 million per school, and if OSU and WSU sign on that’s what they’ll get too.  But I just don’t see any market forces that would pump that up to a $16 million per school deal by excluding half of the current MWC membership.  No combination of six current MWC schools plus OSU and WSU is going to be paid that much, especially since there’s no chance of the deal including a GOR to protect the media partner.

I think at best, a Pac-8 might earn $10-$12 million per school instead of $8 million.  Over the term of a six-year deal that would produce a net revenue benefit of $12-$24 million.  That’s not enough of a differential to cover the MWC’s exit fee, even if the fee were significantly reduced in exit negotiations.  Moreover a Pac-8 would have higher travel costs than the current MWC due to the average distance between members being greater, and would have more challenges with scheduling and with sponsoring niche sports because of its small size.

Despite all of the above I don’t rule out the possibility that some MWC schools will opt to defect as part of a Pac rebuild led by OSU and WSU.  But if it happens I don’t believe the reason will be that it makes sense financially.  It will happen because of ego.

The last time our TV deal came up for a new deal, it went up $2-3 million per school from the previous deal, so on next contract for MWC I don't think out of possibility go up the same amount. However, we all know that MWC has talked to the partners and probably OSU/WSU or the information MWC got was relayed to both schools about what it would look like, but again I believe if MWC was told the price would be the same with or without WSU/OSU I don't think they would be pushing for to do something with those schools. 

[wolfpack1]

On 9/19/2023 at 12:49 PM, Billings said:

IF we merge into the PAC there is no current deal

Unless part of the merger is we bring the MWC contract with it for short term with a possible raise, then in about a year or start talks on another contract.

[wolfpack1]

On 9/19/2023 at 1:40 PM, jewelz4562000 said:

Surprised they haven't figured that out yet.  I've been on Hulu live, then YTTV for like like the last 6+ years

It takes time as well because they had the problem with DVR's and all that as well there wasn't a way to count that either. But now with all the updates they get from different sources that is why the numbers will change further out we get as Nielsen and such get more information

[wolfpack1]

Looks like Beaver and his peeps are pushing the OSU and WSU to Big 12 again

[Spot50B]

On 9/19/2023 at 3:10 PM, bornontheblue said:

Not true anymore. Check the fine print in the app. By default they pass along your viewing habits to Nielson 

Netflix doesn't play with Nielsen. I'm not sure why any of the other streaming services would. There is no advantage to publicly release how many people watched your program. In fact, it is one of the big sticking points in the actor/writer strike right now.

[OzzyOzz]

On 9/19/2023 at 11:28 AM, HawaiiMongoose said:

This is where the rebuttal comes in.

What shred of evidence exists that any media company is prepared to pay twice as much to a subset of MWC schools than those schools would be paid otherwise, just because OSU and WSU are now in the picture?

I know it’s an awful thing to accept and deal with for OSU and WSU, but the reality is that what previously separated them from MWC schools with respect to athletics was their association with the other Pac schools.  That association is now gone, and along with it, the power conference visibility, revenue and recruiting advantages that allowed them to sustain a competitive edge versus what are otherwise peer schools in the MWC.  Going forward there is no reason for the media companies to expect OSU and WSU to outperform the top MWC schools, and consequently, to place any greater valuation on OSU’s or WSU’s broadcast rights than on Boise State’s, Fresno State’s, or San Diego State’s.

Before any of this happened the MWC was already looking forward to a new media deal that might bump the per-school payout from $4 million per school up to perhaps $8 million per school.  Now that renegotiation can take place sooner, and it may still yield $8 million per school, and if OSU and WSU sign on that’s what they’ll get too.  But I just don’t see any market forces that would pump that up to a $16 million per school deal by excluding half of the current MWC membership.  No combination of six current MWC schools plus OSU and WSU is going to be paid that much, especially since there’s no chance of the deal including a GOR to protect the media partner.

I think at best, a Pac-8 might earn $10-$12 million per school instead of $8 million.  Over the term of a six-year deal that would produce a net revenue benefit of $12-$24 million.  That’s not enough of a differential to cover the MWC’s exit fee, even if the fee were significantly reduced in exit negotiations.  Moreover a Pac-8 would have higher travel costs than the current MWC due to the average distance between members being greater, and would have more challenges with scheduling and with sponsoring niche sports because of its small size.

Despite all of the above I don’t rule out the possibility that some MWC schools will opt to defect as part of a Pac rebuild led by OSU and WSU.  But if it happens I don’t believe the reason will be that it makes sense financially.  It will happen because of ego.

This is written from a perspective that forgets that CFB will not be like it has been previously. An expanded playoffs offers more opportunity for exposure for the student athlete which means more student athletes will be going to schools that can consistently get them into those playoffs, (it's why they all went to Alabama in the first place..athletes care about rings, not brands..) which means more eyes will be watching all schools in general, and even more eyes would have been watching mwc schools to be more specific, to begin with, as they would have been playing more meaningful football anyways, and now, due to this, that has been multiplied too..

If you do projections with all that in mind, if it is now a low burn "for profit" enterprise..well, they'll be forced to pay closer to what pro leagues pay per team..

And so if it were me, I'd legit start the discussion at $50 mil per school (or whatever it is for an NBA team (not NFL, because Im being nice), tell them exactly why that is using hard math, and lobby the other schools for support as it will set the tone for their negotiations too...they'll want the mwc to get paid because that means they'll get paid even more, that's how contracts work..

$50m as a starting figure and if not, sign short term deals until the expanded playoffs #s come in. 

If you want to be rude about it. 

The pac2 are concerned about a different check lol

But the truth is CFB is the 3rd most popular sport in America, if not the 2nd, and if push comes to shove, in a free market? It can demand to be paid like one.

Academics are too nice lol, in the business world Alabama football is worth billions and would demand contracts like they were the Knicks or hell Man Utd..

So, let them off easy and allow them to pay you..probably what the other power schools are getting paid right now..because when it is their turn, they'll get paid more for it. 

And if not, sign a short solution deal and show up at the table when the other schools do and after the post expansion #s come in clearly, and demand your just dues then...retroactively even lol

If this is a business don't let them bully you.

 

[EvilPoke]

I don't know if I'm alone, but a few times I've accidentally pressed the 'go back to beginning arrows' and been freaked out by @Did I hear a WOOSH? original post about the sec looking to raid the Big 12.

[lobo-tomy]

latest statement (non-statement according to some)

Funny how some poster are saying they should just go to the Big 12. Good luck with that 

 

[Headbutt]

On 9/19/2023 at 2:02 PM, RSF said:

Yep...the benefits of a shorter term deal.  Its the conferences that have the long deals that are taking it the shorts right now.

As was pointed out as inevitable to the arrogant AAC honks a few years ago when they were bragging up their deal. 

[SteedLaw]

On 9/19/2023 at 5:21 PM, lobo-tomy said:

latest statement (non-statement according to some)

Funny how some poster are saying they should just go to the Big 12. Good luck with that 

 

Pretty telling which way they are heading right now. A lot was said…(and even more that was not at all even hinted at).

Edit: (Does someone have suicide watch on OS Beaver?) 

[wolfpack1]

Here is an article on yahoo about the WSU and OSU situation and how some unnamed AD's including an MWC AD talking about different ideas that are being talked about

Promotion/relegation in college football? Game-changing idea could help save Pac-12 (yahoo.com)

[wolfpack1]

On 9/19/2023 at 4:21 PM, lobo-tomy said:

latest statement (non-statement according to some)

Funny how some poster are saying they should just go to the Big 12. Good luck with that 

 

Essentially pretty much everything he said in the interview he did back on Friday 

[HR_Poke]

On 9/19/2023 at 10:08 PM, wolfpack1 said:

Here is an article on yahoo about the WSU and OSU situation and how some unnamed AD's including an MWC AD talking about different ideas that are being talked about

Promotion/relegation in college football? Game-changing idea could help save Pac-12 (yahoo.com)

I don't see relegation working especially with the difference in revenue. 

[Headbutt]

On 9/19/2023 at 8:08 PM, wolfpack1 said:

Here is an article on yahoo about the WSU and OSU situation and how some unnamed AD's including an MWC AD talking about different ideas that are being talked about

Promotion/relegation in college football? Game-changing idea could help save Pac-12 (yahoo.com)

I think it's a really dumb idea.  The only redeeming feature would be that we're doing something different from the P4.  I get that I'm in the minority, but I hate it.

[EvilPoke]

On 9/19/2023 at 8:08 PM, wolfpack1 said:

Here is an article on yahoo about the WSU and OSU situation and how some unnamed AD's including an MWC AD talking about different ideas that are being talked about

Promotion/relegation in college football? Game-changing idea could help save Pac-12 (yahoo.com)

This sounds like some crazy bullshit plan that myself and @SteedLaw would think of, but not put any effort into writing it down because it would never happen.

Let's do it!

[azgreg]