Conference Realignment thread

[JohnJayJay]

On 9/6/2023 at 3:20 PM, SparkysDad said:

The problem with the above, as others have stated, is a combo of the best of MWC/AAC should drive more revenue. And some schools will care...

SDSU (supposedly) already tried to rally nine schools to move to PAC and dissolve MWC (thus avoiding exit fees). It went nowhere. While a few schools may be itchy (SDSU, CSU, my own Bulldogs, maaaaybe BSU) it’s apparently not enough to get it done. Cooler heads seem to have come to the conclusion that the PAC is in a bind. If you game the system to hoard nine figures all to yourselves (an outsized sum, btw, given those two schools relevance), cool. Enjoy your trips to the Carolinas and Deep South. It will be a short term wealth infusion, and then those two schools will wither on the vine with the travel and zero west coast/mountain time zone rivalries. They’ll massively regret the move long term. If they want help and want to build something with the only true western D-1 football conference? Awesome. But you’re gonna pay for the privilege. Otherwise, the MWC doesn’t need them that badly. And, they don’t elevate the AAC above the MWC. WSU isn’t better than top end MWC schools and OSU’s recent success is built on nearly $40 million a year in conference money. Even a move to AAC is a $30+ million revenue hit, not to mention exorbitant travel costs. You think they’ll maintain their current level of play with those future handicaps? I sure don’t. Fresno, Boise, SDSU, and AFA have shown they can regularly win on peanuts. They’ve been doing it for years. OSU? I’m not so sure. 

[RebelRobert]

On 9/6/2023 at 5:20 PM, SparkysDad said:

The problem with the above, as others have stated, is a combo of the best of MWC/AAC should drive more revenue. And some schools will care...

Correct. Expansion is about the long term, you don’t make bad decisions that you will be stuck with for the next 50-100 years just to save 10 months or 22 months.

[SharkTanked]

On 9/6/2023 at 3:37 PM, RebelRobert said:

Correct. Expansion is about the long term, you don’t make bad decisions that you will be stuck with for the next 50-100 years just to save 10 months or 22 months.

[Headbutt]

On 9/6/2023 at 3:42 PM, namssa said:

This would be my guess as well.  If they take the best 6 MW teams they could schedule a home and home with them in 2024 and 2025.  That plus their existing OOC would give them 9-10 games.  What would the exit fee be for MW teams in 2026 after the media contract ends?  Zero or close to it?  They could also put OLY sports in the BigWest for 1-2 years.  Can they get half the MWC to commit to that idea?  $120-150 million for both WSU and OSU if they can pull it off.   It would be very difficult, but impossible?

The exit fee is not tied to the TV deal. It doesn’t go away or get reduced. 

[RSF]

On 9/6/2023 at 5:09 PM, OzzyOzz said:

How does it affect Ms. Nevarez's legacy that her alma mater effectively passed up on her?

I'd be unhappy and I could see myself resigning tbh

UMass passed up on her?  wow....

[sean327]

On 9/5/2023 at 4:34 PM, Jack Bauer said:

BYU didn't do anything. Ya'll are funny. You should be super mad at SDSU for leaving and coming back like three times, yet here we are. They even tried to reform the PAC under your noses, no shits are given because BYU tried to put their olympic sports in the WAC, and Mr Peanut tried to hurt the league by his own accord.

That's bullshit and you know it. BYU got butthurt because Utah got the call and they didn't. They took that butthurt and tried to blow up the MWC. Revisionist history won't help you. SDSU never tried to blow up the conference with their delusions of grandeur so they get a pass. The Borg will never get a pass from the OG's on this board. I'm looking forward to watching you clowns get your asses kicked on a weekly basis in the Big-12.

[idkk]

 

[sean327]

On 9/5/2023 at 11:20 PM, clydebeav said:

I’m assuming he left Air Force out because of the 9 game schedule? I was just using the same teams in the post I responded to.

Assuming that you’re adding 5 AAC schools, UNM seems like the most logical school to pair with them because they are that farthest east. Who is UNM’s primary conference rival currently?

UNM doesn't want to be a part of anything without Wyoming, CSU and AF. We have nothing in common with that bullshit proposed Eastern pod.

[utgrizfan]

Looks like Wazzu is going to be pursuing legal action against ESPN and Fox. Alot of speculation on other Forums is this could be an attempt to "encourage" one or both to find money to get Wazzu and OSU into the Big12, even if it is at half shares (15 million).

https://247sports.com/college/washington-state/article/kirk-schulz-wsus-legal-strategy-coming-fast-and-fists-will-be-clenched-215540496/

[namssa]

On 9/6/2023 at 4:01 PM, Headbutt said:

The exit fee is not tied to the TV deal. It doesn’t go away or get reduced. 

Isn't the exit fee 3 times the yearly media deal?  If there is no media deal what is it 3 times of? 

[idkk]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:28 PM, Shaker said:

They don't have to pay the $34mil nor do they have to get 9 MWC schools. Leave for the 2025 season and it is only a $17mil. 2026 even less. But I would guess teams would pay the 17 and be in the PAC in 2025. 

I don't know why people fail to understand that the fees are structured around the average revenue distribution of the conference and how much notice they give. The lowest amount it can ever be is 3x the distribution of the previous year. So, if the distribution for 2024 is $6M, then the fee is $18M. For a 2025 exit, it's still 3x whatever the #. It scales as the distribution goes up/down. If they leave earlier than the required notice period that doubles.

[SalinasSpartan]

On 9/6/2023 at 2:48 PM, RamSack said:

Maybe we should bring them in at half shares for a couple years? Do you think they would go for that? I don’t think so.

You have to be reasonable, and at some point, we’re going to push them away and they’ll go for a less desirable short term option. The MW has an opportunity to clearly be above all the other G5’s by adding WOSU. Let’s not fook it up.

Whatever happens, it should be a win-win. 

Dude nobody is saying the MWC should ask for dumb shit. When people say the MWC should use its leverage they mean the MWC should do what EVERY entity does in college football and advocate for what’s in their best interest. In this case that is a full merge effective 2024. That IS a “win-win”. 

[ShoichiKUN808]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:35 PM, namssa said:

Isn't the exit fee 3 times the yearly media deal?  If there is no media deal what is it 3 times of? 

Even though it has a piece in the fee, its not the total fee. For 1 Year and Under notice the calculation for schools paying the exit fee is [3 * (Average MW Member Distribution Payment for Prior Year)]. It's not just the media right distribution, but any additional distributions that the conference provides its members for the prior athletic season.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/mountainwest.sidearmsports.com/documents/2020/8/5/Appendix_A_Bylaws_.pdf

Quote

(b) Effective April 30, 2021 and thereafter any notice of resignation given by any Member shall be subject to the Notice Date referenced in subparagraph (a) above and the following: the resigning Member shall pay to the Conference as an Exit Fee an amount equal to three times the average per Member Conference distribution payment for the preceding year. (the “Timely Notice Exit Fee”) If the resigning member gives notice after the established “Notice Date”, the resigning Member shall pay to the Conference as an Exit Fee an amount equal to double the Timely Notice Exit Fee. After receiving Notice of Resignation from a Member, all payments due that Member from the Conference shall be withheld and applied to that Member’s Exit Fee. The balance of the Member’s Exit Fee as provided above, shall be paid by the Member to the Conference on or before the Effective Date. (Revised June 2011, January 2013, July 2016, April 2021)

 

[idkk]

On 9/6/2023 at 2:02 PM, CPslograd said:

I think it's possible, 17 million isn't that crazy different than what Fresno and Reno paid to leave the WAC (when adjusted for inflation).

It seems like there would have to be a media partner lined up for it to happen though.  No one is going to walk away from the MWC to the PACX unless there is a media partner in the room at the time.

It's 17x the amount they actually paid to leave. They settled at $900k when the WAC wanted $5M.

Quote

Nevada and Fresno State have agreed to play one more season in the Western Athletic Conference before transferring to the Mountain West Conference in 2012 and will pay significantly less to make the move than the WAC had demanded, the conference said Thursday.

The two schools wanted to make the change next year, but WAC officials filed a lawsuit that said they failed to provide proper notice to leave the conference and would owe the WAC a $5 million departure fee.

WAC Commissioner Karl Benson announced they reached an agreement that allows the schools to make the jump effective June 30, 2012, for a buyout of $900,000 each. That means both of their football and basketball seasons will begin in the Mountain West with the 2012 season.

Link: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2010/oct/29/wac-receives-reprieve/ 

[SalinasSpartan]

On 9/6/2023 at 4:43 PM, ShoichiKUN808 said:

it's not directed related to the media rights. For 1 Year and Under notice the calculation for schools paying the exit fee is [3 * (Average MW member distribution payment for prior year)]

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/mountainwest.sidearmsports.com/documents/2020/8/5/Appendix_A_Bylaws_.pdf

 

Plus it’s pretty irrelevant because notice would be provided within the next year when the TV deal is in effect and the I assume the MWC would just withhold the exiting schools’ TV money like they did with SDSU and apply that towards the exit fee. 

[SierraSpartan]

On 9/6/2023 at 4:35 PM, namssa said:

Isn't the exit fee 3 times the yearly media deal?  If there is no media deal what is it 3 times of? 

This is the language of the MWC by-laws.

Now, I suppose a group of four MWC schools could theoretically kamikaze the conference by not accepting any new media contract to take effect after the current one expires after the '25-'26 school year so as to avoid the possibility of an exit fee - but that would not be possible until the end of the '26-'27 school year - "the preceding year".

Then again, there may be a "continuance" clause in the media rights contract that says that the existing terms of the contract will continue until such time as either a) a new contract extension is signed, or b) one or both parties timely notices the others of their desire to terminate the contract.

Either way, waiting for or even possibly even engineering the end of the media contract in order to get out of an exit fee would be a hell of a thing to explain to the non-FB athletes and parents and supporters.

 

[sactowndog]

On 9/5/2023 at 9:39 PM, sactowndog said:

The best option for AF is independent for football with a scheduling alliance of 6-8 games which ever they prefer.  We could do the same thing with Navy.
 

The funny thing is the large Naval Marine bases in San Diego, Puget Sound, Hawaii, Lemore.   
 

the largest Air Force base is San Antonio and Eglin.  
 

so a cross merger with the western AAC and scheduling alliances would be good for both academies.  

Sean.  Would love to hear your thoughts on this? 

[wolfpack1]

On 9/6/2023 at 9:32 AM, SharkTanked said:

Can't the PAC schools vote now to dissolve the conference and divvy up the money on the way out the door? Anyone know what the PAC bylaws have to say on that? Do we know if they are nonvoting members immediately after submitting their notice of intent to leave?

9 of the 12 schools have to vote to dissolve the conference, however like I said last night I honestly don't see them doing that. 

[sactowndog]

On 9/6/2023 at 4:30 PM, sean327 said:

UNM doesn't want to be a part of anything without Wyoming, CSU and AF. We have nothing in common with that bullshit proposed Eastern pod.

So happy to move shit around but is it fair to ask a few questions?

Do you think AF would prefer 9 games or independent with a scheduling alliance of their choosing?  

Does UNM really give a crap about football?  If the answer is no you are with those teams for hoops baseball etc.  if yes isn’t a focus on Texas critical to get UNM back to decent? 

[smithy]

On 9/6/2023 at 4:28 PM, idkk said:

 

Heard Aresco's focus is getting Army to jump to the AAC for SMU replacement. Gets national team and eyeballs at the same time. He said he was not interested looking out west anymore because of the logistics of going west is too costly.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-976742.html