Conference Realignment thread

[sactowndog]

On 9/6/2023 at 9:47 AM, OzzyOzz said:

 

Luckily the people involved seem to realize this and are working towards an acceptable resolution to this for all parties, one without preference to any contingent of involved members...

It's to the MWC's benefit for WSU/OSU to join as their best possible versions of themselves and not as husks of their former selves. Lucky that those involved seem to be working towards this...

That goal will be achieved and there is too much concern over the legalities of all of this. Merger, reverse, dissolution...whatever legal mechanisms are most appropriate to achieve the obvious end goal is not the issue as far as I'm concerned. 

I've supported the creation of a new conference entirely. A reverse merger will also work. A merger written over the course of 2 years will work too..

You know, you all are focused on the Pac2s money (which, I'd think is actually still TBD as far as how much it will be..), but I'd hope the Pac2 are focused on putting itself in its best position to retain A status for itself and/or push for it to be granted for new conference members. The pac's assets went beyond money and W/OSU would probably sacrifice there to retain its other assets.

The problem is the MWC seems to want to strip everything away from WSU/OSU to retain its own stature and thus bring W/OSU to the MWCs level whereas the Pac2 are trying to position the MWC to compete with the other conferences...

If the former is pursued they will only be temporarily successful. 

WSU should be signing deals with the Broncos and the Seahawks right now regardless to try to ensure a place in the College-NFL g league. It has regionalism on its side (ironically) and might squeak in. How far in the future that is to be pursued is more up to the MWC than it is to WSU, I'd think. 

Right now WSU is ostensibly trying to secure its place in its new conference and its new conference's place amongst them all. That there is resistance in public discourse to that end with public concern over what I presume to be machismo more than anything is disappointing if it is reflective of the private conversations being had. However, I doubt that it is. I think the people pertinent to all this are smart enough to come up with a solution that will work best for all and are just dealing with the legal framework behind that initiative, which can always be worked around regardless..

About the people here however, I might not be so ready to say the same thing..

 

 

Not sure why so salty….

you have Big-12 fans that clearly are going to be anti a recreated PAC.  You have fans of MWC teams that are worried about being the next OSU/WSU and what that might bring.  
 

then you have some like Robert advocating for a breakup.  Why wouldn’t people be on edge???

[wolfan]

On 9/6/2023 at 11:29 AM, HR_Poke said:

Has to be tulane.

They're good now but for a 100 years they were not very good.  What happens when the coach leaves?  

[sactowndog]

On 9/6/2023 at 11:45 AM, namssa said:

So, here's one option Oregon State and Washington State are exploring: they're considering remaining a Pac2 conference for a duration of two years. Here's the rationale behind this strategy. They plan to request a two-year waiver, allowing them to maintain conference status despite having fewer than 8 teams. During this period, they would retain all their basketball credits, which amount to $60 million. Furthermore, they would maintain their status as an A5 conference, ensuring access not only to the full CFP payout of $150 million but also a likely automatic berth in the playoffs. This would accumulate to $210 million in credits, split between two teams. One of these teams would be guaranteed a playoff spot, and the other would secure their highest-rated bowl game.  I don' t know if this doable and/or if the MW would assist them for long the term gain (like with scheduling) but it is interesting.

Their are no automatic berths.   They would have to be top 6 ranked conference champs.  

[Shaker]

On 9/6/2023 at 12:23 PM, SparkysDad said:

So IMHO, to accomplish the bolded option above, they'd have to get around the $34 million dollar exit fees, which means 9 MWC schools would have to agree to dissolve the MWC, so as not to be held to the exit fees/other bylaws.

Couple of things:

1) This means The Resurrected Pac (Pac 2 + ?) would have to accept 9 MWC schools, bringing the initial total to Pac 11. Depending on what total number of programs is most lucrative (12? 14? 16?) they will need to add the appropriate number from the AAC.

2) Bigger questions: Are there 9 MWC that would stab the other 3 in the back? Who are they and could they possibly get that unified on who the actual 9 are and who the 3 are that they want to dump? How many lawsuits would the other 3 file?

3) Who are the top 5 AAC candidates in order? Will the future, yet-to-be determined media partner (a problem in itself) pay enough to cover the potentially problematic travel?

While the Pac 2 + 9 MWC + #? AAC is probably the best revenue-generating model, is it too complex to be possible? I personally believe it falls apart when the powers that be in the MWC try to form a cohesive MWC Group of 9 to screw the MWC Group of 3. I don't think anybody even likes enough of the others to have 9 programs reach agreement on something this critical. 

They don't have to pay the $34mil nor do they have to get 9 MWC schools. Leave for the 2025 season and it is only a $17mil. 2026 even less. But I would guess teams would pay the 17 and be in the PAC in 2025. Take 5-6 MWC teams 3-5 from the AAC. PAC may not be a premier  conference anymore but would definitely be the best right after the p4 conferences and the first conference Big 12 would look at teams from if/when they further expand. TV deal would be way better than what the MWC or AAC would or will get. 2-3 years max to make up the extra $17million for the buyout. This is what OSU/WSU is pushing for. One year of figuring out schedule for oly sports won't be near as hard as some as trying to say.

Fall back plan if everything else fails is to merge with the MWC one way or another. 

[namssa]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:28 PM, Shaker said:

They don't have to pay the $34mil nor do they have to get 9 MWC schools. Leave for the 2025 season and it is only a $17mil. 2026 even less. But I would guess teams would pay the 17 and be in the PAC in 2025. Take 5-6 MWC teams 3-5 from the AAC. PAC may not be a premier  conference anymore but would definitely be the best right after the p4 conferences and the first conference Big 12 would look at teams from if/when they further expand. TV deal would be way better than what the MWC or AAC would or will get. 2-3 years max to make up the extra $17million for the buyout. This is what OSU/WSU is pushing for. One year of figuring out schedule for oly sports won't be near as hard as some as trying to say.

Fall back plan if everything else fails is to merge with the MWC one way or another. 

This would be my guess as well.  If they take the best 6 MW teams they could schedule a home and home with them in 2024 and 2025.  That plus their existing OOC would give them 9-10 games.  What would the exit fee be for MW teams in 2026 after the media contract ends?  Zero or close to it?  They could also put OLY sports in the BigWest for 1-2 years.  Can they get half the MWC to commit to that idea?  $120-150 million for both WSU and OSU if they can pull it off.   It would be very difficult, but impossible?

[HR_Poke]

On 9/6/2023 at 4:25 PM, wolfan said:

They're good now but for a 100 years they were not very good.  What happens when the coach leaves?  

It was a joke.

[RamSack]

On 9/6/2023 at 2:09 PM, JohnJayJay said:

Absent the PAC2 sharing a LARGE chunk of that potential largesse with the MWC, why would the MWC lift a finger to help them? “Here. Let us completely overturn our OOC schedules for the next two years so you guys can each earn nine figures. We’re good with our $4-5 mil, so no worries. We’re happy to do it.” 
MWC needs to just sit tight and not lift a finger. They’ll come to us or go to the AAC is they prefer (and going to the AAC would be a near death blow to their programs and they know it). 

I disagree. We have to work with them to help solve their problems and improve our situation at the same time. In other words, it needs to be a win-win. 

[CPslograd]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:42 PM, namssa said:

This would be my guess as well.  If they take the best 6 MW teams they could schedule a home and home with them in 2024 and 2025.  That plus their existing OOC would give them 9-10 games.  What would the exit fee be for MW teams in 2026 after the media contract ends?  Zero or close to it?  They could also put OLY sports in the BigWest for 1-2 years.  Can they get half the MWC to commit to that idea?  $120-150 million for both WSU and OSU if they can pull it off.   It would be very difficult, but impossible?

I think it's possible, 17 million isn't that crazy different than what Fresno and Reno paid to leave the WAC (when adjusted for inflation).

It seems like there would have to be a media partner lined up for it to happen though.  No one is going to walk away from the MWC to the PACX unless there is a media partner in the room at the time.

[SalinasSpartan]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:56 PM, RamSack said:

I disagree. We have to work with them to help solve their problems and improve our situation at the same time. In other words, it needs to be a win-win. 

No, a “win” for the MWC is a merge effective next summer, as that would be a significant bump in TV revenue in 1 year instead of 3 years. Waiting around for two years would effectively charge the entire MWC an entrance fee of over $10M per school.

[RebelRobert]

On 9/6/2023 at 4:02 PM, CPslograd said:

I think it's possible, 17 million isn't that crazy different than what Fresno and Reno paid to leave the WAC (when adjusted for inflation).

It seems like there would have to be a media partner lined up for it to happen though.  No one is going to walk away from the MWC to the PACX unless there is a media partner in the room at the time.

And it is spread out so it doesn’t really hurt like a $17 million check at one time would.

MWC would withhold (so the schools would never see it) $5 million dollar yearly conference payout on July 1, 2024.

MWC would also withhold another $5 million dollar yearly conference payout on July 1, 2025.

All that the schools would actually pay is $7 million dollars and that would be negotiated and paid out over many years.

[JohnJayJay]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:56 PM, RamSack said:

I disagree. We have to work with them to help solve their problems and improve our situation at the same time. In other words, it needs to be a win-win. 

Why does the MWC “have to work with” and help schools already at a HUGE financial and facilities advantage? It’s insane. It’s like stealing from the poor to give to the rich. They’re in a position of their own making. Too freaking bad your hubris landed you here. Not the MWC problem. The MWC owes them squat. Do you see them currently doing ANYTHING conciliatory towards the MWC? Nope. Have they ever? Nope. The MWC is in a rare position of leverage. Granted if Hair was still commish he’d give away the kids college fund to help them, but Gloria seems a lot smarter and stronger and any help they get will be with big strings attached. Otherwise? Enjoy the AAC and your new rivalry games with schools in the Deep South and east coast. 
It’s time for Real Politik in the age of realignment and Gloria gets it. 

[wolfan]

On 9/6/2023 at 1:46 PM, HR_Poke said:

It was a joke.

Which reminds me.  OSU & WSU, with rare exception, have been at or near the bottom of their conference for the last 100 years.  Very few of their Oly teams have made the national scene?  MWC schools have beaten them.  Will the Pac name really carry cache when all the well known teams are gone?  Is the media really clamoring to be able to televise them?  There's a reason they got left behind.  My point is this.  I'd be very happy to see them in the MW, but we need to keep it in perspective.

[jewelz4562000]

On 9/6/2023 at 3:16 PM, JohnJayJay said:

Why does the MWC “have to work with” and help schools already at a HUGE financial and facilities advantage? It’s insane. It’s like stealing from the poor to give to the rich. They’re in a position of their own making. Too freaking bad your hubris landed you here. Not the MWC problem. The MWC owes them squat. Do you see them currently doing ANYTHING conciliatory towards the MWC? Nope. Have they ever? Nope. The MWC is in a rare position of leverage. Granted if Hair was still commish he’d give away the kids college fund to help them, but Gloria seems a lot smarter and stronger and any help they get will be with big strings attached. Otherwise? Enjoy the AAC and your new rivalry games with schools in the Deep South and east coast. 

AAC already said they don't want them. Granted that was probably because OSU and WSU told them we aren't interested.

[JohnJayJay]

On 9/6/2023 at 2:19 PM, jewelz4562000 said:

AAC already said they don't want them. Granted that was probably because OSU and WSU told them we aren't interested.

Even better. If that’s true and not just spin, why would the MWC bend even a scintilla? The MWC has 100% of the leverage. 

[OzzyOzz]

On 9/6/2023 at 2:16 PM, JohnJayJay said:

Why does the MWC “have to work with” and help schools already at a HUGE financial and facilities advantage? It’s insane. It’s like stealing from the poor to give to the rich. They’re in a position of their own making. Too freaking bad your hubris landed you here. Not the MWC problem. The MWC owes them squat. Do you see them currently doing ANYTHING conciliatory towards the MWC? Nope. Have they ever? Nope. The MWC is in a rare position of leverage. Granted if Hair was still commish he’d give away the kids college fund to help them, but Gloria seems a lot smarter and stronger and any help they get will be with big strings attached. Otherwise? Enjoy the AAC and your new rivalry games with schools in the Deep South and east coast. 

 

On 9/6/2023 at 1:23 PM, sactowndog said:

Not sure why so salty….

you have Big-12 fans that clearly are going to be anti a recreated PAC.  You have fans of MWC teams that are worried about being the next OSU/WSU and what that might bring.  
 

then you have some like Robert advocating for a breakup.  Why wouldn’t people be on edge???

Someone here understands it better than I do but the reason is, it is to the MWCs benefit to keep pac2 assets as is it forces the ncaa to either deny WSU/OSU certain collegiate votes or approve the rest of the mwc members for those votes. It was a money distribution thing, separation from the G5..posted a couple days back. It is more likely to happen to the MWCs advantage if pac 12 assets are retained.

And also, bowl tie ins I think are effected, but maybe not..

Anyway, again, it's not necessarily about the money and the people on the phones are probably also concerned about the upcoming NCAA conference that will address these changes in their totality. Or they should be..

I'm not salty, and you'd be too if you knew my personal circumstances but that's not the topic here lol

Thinking about it, since it is that distribution model that needs to be insured against then simply do so amongst the the MWC schools and be done with it. If WSU/OSU falls down the revenue chain significantly because of the MWCs reluctance to pursue that qualifying standard which is written in the bylaws of the pac12-ncaa agreements (I think lol, no clue)..which they will have to give up if they dissolve the conference and join the MWC, then of course they will keep all assets for themselves. If, however, the MWC is complicit in its efforts and helps W/OSU retain that status, and further the MWC schools are granted that status as well, then, perhaps those assets are more likely to be distributed for the betterment of the new conference. 

There is a third option, and it is what actually should happen. Nothing. Nothing should be agreed upon until the NCAA mega conference that will soon occur does occur. Then everything can be sorted out there. By the pac2 burning it's bridge with the AAC, it has in essence, and by default, already announced its intention to join the MWC in one form or the other. And so, that's enough, sign a document simply stating that the pac2 and the MWC intend to work in conjunction with one another over the next 2 years, whatever that ends up looking like, make it purposefully vague as to what it will look like, sign that, leave out all the important details as TBD and ship that hot potato off to the NCAA so they can deal with all of this. 

And then focus on asset retention.

Just my 2cts

[RamSack]

On 9/6/2023 at 3:16 PM, JohnJayJay said:

Why does the MWC “have to work with” and help schools already at a HUGE financial and facilities advantage? It’s insane. It’s like stealing from the poor to give to the rich. They’re in a position of their own making. Too freaking bad your hubris landed you here. Not the MWC problem. The MWC owes them squat. Do you see them currently doing ANYTHING conciliatory towards the MWC? Nope. Have they ever? Nope. The MWC is in a rare position of leverage. Granted if Hair was still commish he’d give away the kids college fund to help them, but Gloria seems a lot smarter and stronger and any help they get will be with big strings attached. Otherwise? Enjoy the AAC and your new rivalry games with schools in the Deep South and east coast. 
It’s time for Real Politik in the age of realignment and Gloria gets it. 

Maybe we should bring them in at half shares for a couple years? Do you think they would go for that? I don’t think so.

You have to be reasonable, and at some point, we’re going to push them away and they’ll go for a less desirable short term option. The MW has an opportunity to clearly be above all the other G5’s by adding WOSU. Let’s not fook it up.

Whatever happens, it should be a win-win. 

[RSF]

On 9/6/2023 at 3:23 PM, sactowndog said:

Not sure why so salty….

you have Big-12 fans that clearly are going to be anti a recreated PAC.  You have fans of MWC teams that are worried about being the next OSU/WSU and what that might bring.  
 

then you have some like Robert advocating for a breakup.  Why wouldn’t people be on edge???

Why would any B12 fan give a shit about a rebuilt P12?

[OzzyOzz]

How does it affect Ms. Nevarez's legacy that her alma mater effectively passed up on her?

I'd be unhappy and I could see myself resigning tbh

[Hoser]

On 9/6/2023 at 2:09 PM, JohnJayJay said:

Absent the PAC2 sharing a LARGE chunk of that potential largesse with the MWC, why would the MWC lift a finger to help them? “Here. Let us completely overturn our OOC schedules for the next two years so you guys can each earn nine figures. We’re good with our $4-5 mil, so no worries. We’re happy to do it.” 
MWC needs to just sit tight and not lift a finger. They’ll come to us or go to the AAC is they prefer (and going to the AAC would be a near death blow to their programs and they know it). 

Bingo!

[SparkysDad]

On 9/6/2023 at 3:22 PM, JohnJayJay said:

Even better. If that’s true and not just spin, why would the MWC bend even a scintilla? The MWC has 100% of the leverage. 

The problem with the above, as others have stated, is a combo of the best of MWC/AAC should drive more revenue. And some schools will care...