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Conference Realignment thread

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15 minutes ago, RSF said:

Here's what I THINK is going to happen...but I reserve the right to change my mind as soon as I'm wrong.

5) The AAC and ESPN will announce that a new TV deal has been renegotiated. But they will be noticeably quiet on the details.

The AAC could easily decide to go with the "hot" programs in the East and look at Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State and Liberty for expansion purposes.  Yes, I know they are all small market or "problematic", but if they want to have a chance of staying top of the G5 pool and getting the big bowl bid, they'll give the Sun Belt guys and Liberty a serious expansion look.

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This entire useless thread represents hundreds of lost man hours. I’m reporting you all to HR. 

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Just now, Old_Sparty1857 said:

This entire useless thread represents hundreds of lost work hours. I’m reporting you all to HR. 

Keep it down...I'm on a conference call...

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49 minutes ago, WAC_FAN said:

The AAC could easily decide to go with the "hot" programs in the East and look at Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State and Liberty for expansion purposes.  Yes, I know they are all small market or "problematic", but if they want to have a chance of staying top of the G5 pool and getting the big bowl bid, they'll give the Sun Belt guys and Liberty a serious expansion look.

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1 hour ago, RSF said:

Here's what I THINK is going to happen...but I reserve the right to change my mind as soon as I'm wrong.

1) UT and OU will negotiate to get out and join the SEC starting July 1st, 2023. That number will be in the 125-160 million range.
2) The next day ESPN will announce LHN is shutting down effective June 30th, 2023.
3) Since the Big 12 TV deal requires 10 teams to get full payment, the Big 12 will announce that they are inviting 2 new schools, effective July 1st, 2023. Those schools will get half shares for the 2 years remaining on the contract, and the Big 12 will help fund their exit fees to facilitate an early exit. The AAC requires 27 months, and I think those 2 teams will be Cincinnati and Memphis. Decent to good in both football and basketball, and they help bridge the geographical gap with West Virginia.
4) Sometime before July 1st, 2025, Fox, ESPN (yes, I believe they will stay involved) and the Big 12 will announce a new deal that will be worth 13 to 15 million per year per school, with a moderately increased presence on ESPN+. ESPN's continued participation is due in no small part to this continuing to be a badass basketball conference.  The conference will also announce they will consider adding 2-4 additional teams under the same terms as the previous additions.
5) The AAC and ESPN will announce that a new TV deal has been renegotiated. But they will be noticeably quiet on the details.

Much of your prognostications are plausible. The one place I think you are off is the money. No way the Big XII remainders get 13-15 mil. Cincy and Memphis won't make a difference and either will UCF.  In fact, only BYU would make a new deal like that possible, and I don't think BYU will be interested. 

 

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5 minutes ago, sancarlosaztec said:

Much of your prognostications are plausible. The one place I think you are off is the money. No way the Big XII remainders get 13-15 mil. Cincy and Memphis won't make a difference and either will UCF.  In fact, only BYU would make a new deal like that possible, and I don't think BYU will be interested. 

 

the current deal is at 40 million right now.  13 to 15 represents a 60-70% drop, and would be combining the remainder of the Big 12 with the (presumably) very top of the AAC, whose deal sits at 7.  I'm comfortable sticking to that prediction.

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2 hours ago, RSF said:

 


1) UT and OU will negotiate to get out and join the SEC starting July 1st, 2023. That number will be in the 125-160 million range.

The remaining eight teams want every single penny.  The general wisdom that past is prologue makes people think the same thing will happen again but I think that when the CFP changes will affect exactly which year the changes happen

 

2) The next day ESPN will announce LHN is shutting down effective June 30th, 2023.

My guess is a 'SEC west' network with the current network becoming 'SEC east' just so it will be clear that SEC > ACC in the pecking order of ESPN.

 

3) Since the Big 12 TV deal requires 10 teams to get full payment, the Big 12 will announce that they are inviting 2 new schools, effective July 1st, 2023. Those schools will get half shares for the 2 years remaining on the contract, and the Big 12 will help fund their exit fees to facilitate an early exit. The AAC requires 27 months, and I think those 2 teams will be Cincinnati and Memphis. Decent to good in both football and basketball, and they help bridge the geographical gap with West Virginia.

I choose  Tulane and  Rice because

a) none of the remaining Big 12 schools want to lose recruits to Houston or SMU, Rice is mentioned by JFK in hie 'why do we go to the moon' speech, and Tulane expands recruiting into Louisiana

b) Both are private schools which Baylor and TCU  like and they are prestigious academically which Kansas and Iowa State will like.

c) Rice and Tulane have big endowments

 

4) Sometime before July 1st, 2025, Fox, ESPN (yes, I believe they will stay involved) and the Big 12 will announce a new deal that will be worth 13 to 15 million per year per school, with a moderately increased presence on ESPN+. ESPN's continued participation is due in no small part to this continuing to be a badass basketball conference.  The conference will also announce they will consider adding 2-4 additional teams under the same terms as the previous additions.

I"m inclined to agree but CBS has a perfect 'game of the week' slot for the Big 12 against the Big Ten on Fox, SEC on ABC and ACC on ESPN

 

5) The AAC and ESPN will announce that a new TV deal has been renegotiated. But they will be noticeably quiet on the details.

I think about four years before the grant of rights expiration of the ACC there will be new chaos in college football based on potential movement of Florida State and Clemson to the SEC or the best of the SEC joining the best 

Thanks for focusing topics

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2 hours ago, RSF said:

Here's what I THINK is going to happen...but I reserve the right to change my mind as soon as I'm wrong.

1) UT and OU will negotiate to get out and join the SEC starting July 1st, 2023. That number will be in the 125-160 million range.
2) The next day ESPN will announce LHN is shutting down effective June 30th, 2023.
3) Since the Big 12 TV deal requires 10 teams to get full payment, the Big 12 will announce that they are inviting 2 new schools, effective July 1st, 2023. Those schools will get half shares for the 2 years remaining on the contract, and the Big 12 will help fund their exit fees to facilitate an early exit. The AAC requires 27 months, and I think those 2 teams will be Cincinnati and Memphis. Decent to good in both football and basketball, and they help bridge the geographical gap with West Virginia.
4) Sometime before July 1st, 2025, Fox, ESPN (yes, I believe they will stay involved) and the Big 12 will announce a new deal that will be worth 13 to 15 million per year per school, with a moderately increased presence on ESPN+. ESPN's continued participation is due in no small part to this continuing to be a badass basketball conference.  The conference will also announce they will consider adding 2-4 additional teams under the same terms as the previous additions.
5) The AAC and ESPN will announce that a new TV deal has been renegotiated. But they will be noticeably quiet on the details.

Great post. 

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West Virginia fans claim there new 4* QB leaked on a podcast the West Virginia was going to the ACC. Don't know how he would know or why but there ya go. Plus there is a Hillbilly named Gold And Blue Dude who claimed the same thing on his YouTube channel today. He gets some BIG guest and supposedly knows things. Happening on less than two weeks.

I don't care either way.

https://twitter.com/smokingmusket/status/1421105830821306374?s=19

 

 

Screenshot_20210730-155843.png

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19 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

And still, the Big 12 will look over the AAC schools, pick out a few and say “get over here, now”, and those schools will immediately go. 

That is the way I see it. If the B12 stays together and tries to go east with the AAC they will have no issues poaching teams. Same can be said if they go west. Any team in the AAC or MWC will jump at the chance to make such a move.

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2 minutes ago, Aztec1984 said:

That is the way I see it. If the B12 stays together and tries to go east with the AAC they will have no issues poaching teams. Same can be said if they go west. Any team in the AAC or MWC will jump at the chance to make such a move.

I agree. I wasn’t implying that MWC schools would respond any differently, i just don’t think the Big 12 is going west.

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1 hour ago, RSF said:

the current deal is at 40 million right now.  13 to 15 represents a 60-70% drop, and would be combining the remainder of the Big 12 with the (presumably) very top of the AAC, whose deal sits at 7.  I'm comfortable sticking to that prediction.

I was thinking it was more like $26 million, the rest comes from the NCAA credits, Bowls, and ect...

 

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Hypothetical time. Let's say the big boys from teh PAC do in fact defect to the B1G and the remaining schools merge with the remaining schools of the Big XII. What do we call it?

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2 minutes ago, e-zone99 said:

I was thinking it was more like $26 million, the rest comes from the NCAA credits, Bowls, and ect...

 

The Big 12 media deals with Fox and ESPN will pay out about $23, $24, $25, and $26 over the last four years

the remaining money to get the Big 12 to about a $40 million average for those 4 years is Sugar Bowl money, Other bowl money, NCAA football playoff money, conference tournament sponsorships, and NCAA tournament credits

That breaks down to about $40 million 2 out of every 3 years for The Sugar Bowl I think there are 3 left in the final 4 years so $120 million

Other bowls are probably $30 to $40 over the final 4 years

NCAA Football Playoff money $50 million per year so $200 million

NCAA Tournament credits are about $2.5 million per members perhaps a bit more $2.75 per member per year

Big 12 sponsorships I am not sure

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Shuffle it around any way you want including basketball and football members only, it makes no difference. Some conferences are growing in number some are shrinking.  Sooner or later one of the conferences, and it could be the lowest on the totum pole, will have to turn to division 1 FCS for a member. 

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2 hours ago, RSF said:

the current deal is at 40 million right now.  13 to 15 represents a 60-70% drop, and would be combining the remainder of the Big 12 with the (presumably) very top of the AAC, whose deal sits at 7.  I'm comfortable sticking to that prediction.

15'ish is what Thamel guestimated.  He is the best in the biz.  I think you are both right.

Now in 2025 invite Boise and BYU, ok?

 

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7 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

15'ish is what Thamel guestimated.  He is the best in the biz.  I think you are both right.

Now in 2025 invite Boise and BYU, ok?

 

I can be bought...

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