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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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On 5/7/2023 at 8:48 AM, AztecMD said:

I hope when this is all over and Fresno is left outside yet again you will have the ability to reflect on the last year and wonder how in the hell you were so confident of an invite.  Like someone else said, for awhile I also thought you were just trolling but then I realized you actually believed it.    

There’s a lot of good Fresno posters here.   It’s amazing how one fan can soil and ruin a brand. Small picture. 
 

@Did I hear a WOOSH? has single handedly torn down the image of UCF to the point of 3rd world country optics. 
 
There isn’t one poster here that respects or likes UCF anymore. 

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On 5/7/2023 at 7:48 AM, Yoda said:

I'm not certain that the PAC schools really want to go; they have a history together.  They want to see their TV  deal before deciding about staying or leaving the PAC.  But if the money difference is sufficient and, more than that, if their TV exposure is insufficient, a couple will probably jump.  

The good news is that their TV deal is about done and I suspect it will be public by the end of the month.  I believe that they will have so little linear exposure, that a school or three will leave and this round of conference musical chairs will come to a merciful end.

I know you’re not a troll.  Been reading your posts for seems like 20 years.  Congratulations on on your upcoming Troll Derby award.

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On 5/7/2023 at 3:21 AM, utenation said:

Lol at BYU. They will never be in the P12. I’m not sure why people think their politics would ever work in this liberal conference. 
 

And double lol at BYU saving or pushing the P12 network through.  Their TV ratings are average at best. 

BYU’s politics have gone soft in truth. But just not in the eyes of the Liberals and Left.

 

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On 5/7/2023 at 11:19 AM, fanhood said:

BYU’s politics have gone soft in truth. But just not in the eyes of the Liberals and Left.

 

I think soft is perspective. I live here. But I’m not going rant about their politics. 
 

I realize the fans that mention BYU to the P12 are mostly spitballing or wishing the P12 didn’t have such a liberal stance. As long as schools like Cal(and others) are in the PAC, it would never happen. 
 

BYU’s Athletic Department is solid. Football was down last year but they will put their resources to good use in all Rev Sports. 
 

BYU fans don’t mention (and haven’t for along time) a P12 move because they know it’s not a good fit. Most of them are bitter and want the P12 to fail for this reason.  Not to mention, the fact that their rival has had fairly good success in this conference is just icing on their sour grapes cake. 

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3 hours ago, Yoda said:

True, as far as you go.  But the SoCal market is only part of the equation.  Fresno captures a smaller part of the SoCal market than SDSU does.  But Fresno not only has a presence in the SoCal market but is dominant in the CentCal market -- meaning the Central Coast and the San Joaquin Valley -- where San Diego State has virtually no presence at all.  Overall, Fresno's market is larger than is SDSU's.

The important thing to point out here is that all of what I write is simply speculative opinion. This means I have a healthy understanding that I could be 100% off (or some degree less than that off).  Might be a good idea for you to point out the same thing when you post.

That aside, my response to the above would be this... imo, the socal market opened up and increased SDSU's opportunity only because UCLA/USC bolted... otherwise, it would be status quo for them. On the other hand, nothing has changed in the Centcal market so I'm not so quick to agree with your opinion on the desirability associated there. 

As for who is dominant where or who carries more credibility where, I will leave you with this... given the choice, a Fresno HS student will select any number of college choices ahead of Fresno St... these choices would include both Cal Poly SLO & SDSU.... given the choice, a San Diego HS student will also select any number of college choices ahead of Fresno St.... and these choices would include both Cal Poly SLO & SDSU.  This of course is my opinion but I am actually basing it on things I know from my profession.

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3 hours ago, Yoda said:

I'm not certain that the PAC schools really want to go; they have a history together.  They want to see their TV  deal before deciding about staying or leaving the PAC.  But if the money difference is sufficient and, more than that, if their TV exposure is insufficient, a couple will probably jump.  

The good news is that their TV deal is about done and I suspect it will be public by the end of the month.  I believe that they will have so little linear exposure, that a school or three will leave and this round of conference musical chairs will come to a merciful end.

Well of course the PAC schools don't want to go... if they did, they'd already be gone.  Kinda my point.

Also, my point is, at this point everything is speculation... you could be right with yours or maybe not... but logic kinda indicates if the PAC schools were certain that the media deal would be trash or that O/UW were leaving or that the media deal would not provide sufficient TV exposure... then they would already be gone.  

So it's fine for us to have our opinions and listen to the blog, volg, media folks that agree with what we think but currently no one really knows what's up unless they are in the room with the decision makers.

Cheers... I hope things work out for Fresno St.  I like some of the folks there.

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On 5/6/2023 at 4:31 PM, renoskier said:

UCLA is going to return?

Let's be clear, I'm not predicting that will happen. but consider the following.

Financials: UCLA figures to get about $67M per year in B1G TV revenue. Skeptics will say no way but I think Pac schools will get about $30M. Cal wanted the UCBOR to force UCLA to remain in the Pac and rumor had it Cal's fallback position was that UCLA be compelled to pay the Bears half the difference between B1G and Pac income or a theoretical $18.5M. The BOR didn't buy that either and instead dictated that a committee would decide how much. Let's say that will be $10M. That would lower UCLA's B1G windfall down to about $27M per year. I can't even estimate travel expenses but a chunk of the $27M, maybe a significant chunk, will evaporate that way. There's been talk the Pac could consider allotting half the profits from post-season participation to the participants as a means of placating UO and UW. If that should happen, considering how deep UCLA often goes in the NCAAs, that would bump up possible income for returning to beyond $30M in many years.

Academics: UCLA isn't exactly Alabama when it comes to academics and athletics. You might be surprised to learn that UCLA had six more sports teams than Alabama and the academic success of athletes in the great majority of those sports really matter at UCLA. If the schoolwork of student-athletes in those sports goes substantially south, there is going to be a backlash against the Bruins being in the B1G.

Football: This is probably a minor consideration but you never know. Bruins football could completely go in the toilet because of what for the players will often be early morning kickoffs and due to playing in the snow 2-3 times per season.

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On 5/7/2023 at 12:13 PM, Someone Else said:

Well of course the PAC schools don't want to go... if they did, they'd already be gone.  Kinda my point.

 

Wait…..So Presidents/ADs/Chancellors aren’t waiting around until the very last minute to see numbers like @Yoda and many others have been saying? 
 

Are you saying they’ve done of lot of due diligence and have already seen what the B12 can offer?  And maybe they’re being truthful when they say they’re staying together but waiting to get the details in order and buttoned up?

 

This kinda logic doesn’t make sense if you’re a bitter snake oil salesman with an agenda. 

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On 5/6/2023 at 10:24 PM, Yoda said:

I think that Fresno gets an invitation to the Big 12, but I also think that SDSU gets a bid to the PAC.  But I also believe that Arizona and possibly one or two other PAC schools bolt for the Big 12.  So SDSU, if they get invited to the PAC won't be joining a PAC 12, and won't be joining a PAC 10, and might joining a PAC 7 -- with 2 to 4 of that PAC 7 already packed and waiting for a callup elsewhere..

I'll concede that there's a chance Arizona and maybe also ASU could join the B12 and Colorado could perhaps join the B1G. However, none of the others are going anywhere. Oregon is definitely not going to the B1G because it lacks the academic chops and why would Washington join the B1G by itself? Stanford? I've been persuaded the Cardinal won't join the B1G either. For one thing, Stanford doesn't need the extra income. (In 2021, its announced endowment was $36.3 BILLION dollars.) For another, at Stanford, academics REALLY matter so I can't see that school's governing board risking the travel impact on student-athletes.

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On 5/7/2023 at 9:46 AM, Someone Else said:

Not likely but the world is filled with possibilities.  And considering I don't know the future I'll say your scenario is possible.

I do continue to wonder why all of these schools who are going to bolt from the P12 to these other conferences are still waiting to do so. I mean if it's so clear that this is going to happen, what's the hold up?  

My thought is the P12 will be fine for at least the next 5-10 years.  If in fact that is incorrect and the p12 dissolves there will certainly be too many moving parts to really determine what things might look like.  I do however expect that if the Socal market is viewed as desirable to the media... and I said if... then really the best option out there probably is SDSU and not Fresno.  But that's just an opinion.

You’re asking what the holdup is, but what’s the hurry? Until they get a verifiable offer from someone then there’s nothing any PAC school can do anyway.  Some people think the power lies with the PAC schools, they all do what they’re told just like everyone else.

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On 5/7/2023 at 12:33 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

You’re asking what the holdup is, but what’s the hurry? Until they get a verifiable offer from someone then there’s nothing any PAC school can do anyway.  Some people think the power lies with the PAC schools, they all do what they’re told just like everyone else.

 

IMG_2351.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

You’re asking what the holdup is, but what’s the hurry? Until they get a verifiable offer from someone then there’s nothing any PAC school can do anyway.  Some people think the power lies with the PAC schools, they all do what they’re told just like everyone else.

My question was rhetorical. 

The point was no one knows and if they did know they'd make the moves everyone is claiming are a done deal.  

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On 5/6/2023 at 8:10 PM, aztecsrule72001 said:

If the Pac somehow got UCLA back they'd be able to get better schools than Tulane to join the conference.

Better how? Tulane would essentially be a travel partner for SMU and Tulane is ranked #44 academically out of 443 national universities by USNWR.

But maybe you mean the Pac could then steal a school or two from the B12. Well, I'll let you argue that with Yoda, NorCal, UCF guy and the boys.

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On 5/7/2023 at 10:17 AM, FresnoFacts said:

Given the strong opinions of which team will or will not go to one conference or another conference, after this round of potential conference moves is finished the eating crow thread will be epic to read.

It really will be something to behold.  If Fresno gets added to a Power Conference, I will readily admit that I was absolutely clueless to their chances. But if they don’t, I will definitely remind a select few who were SO confident that they were moving up that they were very gullible to listen to their sources.  I give the latter a 99% chance of happening this cycle.  

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On 5/7/2023 at 1:39 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

You know I don’t do that.  You’ve been hanging out with @utenation, @utenation's mom aka @Jack Bauer too long

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2023/05/05/ucf-receives-8-million-in-revenue-from-aac/

I see you still have comprehension problems.  That 588k is not game production.   That comes out of the media rights. Just like a big chunk of money comes out of the P12N distribution to the schools.

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In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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On 5/7/2023 at 10:34 AM, utenation said:

I think soft is perspective. I live here. But I’m not going rant about their politics. 
 

I realize the fans that mention BYU to the P12 are mostly spitballing or wishing the P12 didn’t have such a liberal stance. As long as schools like Cal(and others) are in the PAC, it would never happen. 
 

BYU’s Athletic Department is solid. Football was down last year but they will put their resources to good use in all Rev Sports. 
 

BYU fans don’t mention (and haven’t for along time) a P12 move because they know it’s not a good fit. Most of them are bitter and want the P12 to fail for this reason.  Not to mention, the fact that their rival has had fairly good success in this conference is just icing on their sour grapes cake. 

Not a bad take really.  On the flip side, there are plenty of Ute fans that want the Big XII to fail because a lot of their identity as fans was around Utah being P5 and BYU being a lowly independent.

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