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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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On 8/31/2022 at 12:10 PM, utenation said:

 

Woosh's story keeps changing.  First, it was the B12 was much more valuable than the P12 with USC/UCLA. Next, it was the B12 is still much more valuable without those teams. After that, 6 P12 teams would be joining the B12 immediately, applications were sent out. 

Your confusing me with someone else.  But , first one was never true.. second sentence is true, third seems like conjecture but I’m sure some schools like the 4 corners would be in the big 12 yesterday if they knew what they know today.  But that’s immaterial one way or the other nor does it discount anything else I actually said.

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On 8/31/2022 at 4:37 PM, utenation said:

Last week I posted an interview with a P12 AD where he was asked about the unequal revenue issue. He said, that's never came up in their meetings.  I've also heard no other rumblings from school admin about the issue. I'm pretty sure this might be a show stopper for some schools in the conference.  I tend to rely more on info from ADs and presidents than from Twitter Rangers and message board "insiders". I personally think this is a dead issue. 

I also think both the P10 and B12 have a really good idea of what their next contracts will look like including the what if scenarios. If there was big incentive to move, I say why wait? Things can change very quickly and you need to handle your business as a conference.   I think both contracts will look similar on payout per school, which is why I think there's been no real news since USC/UCLA. The B12 exit fees are probably show stoppers, especially if the money is pretty equal.

Again, just my opinion.

Not a bad question.  I don't think there's a big current incentive to move.  There's probably not much of a per-team difference between the following:

  • PAC 12 payout
  • NB12 payout
  • Proposed NB12 + 4 corners teams payout

While I think the 4 corners schools are the most likely of all PAC members to move to the Big 12, they likely prefer to stay in the PAC if it retains all its current members.  If the PAC loses one or more of Washington/Oregon/Stanford/whatever, then the PAC 12 payouts likely take a big hit and the proposed NB12 +4C payout starts looking a lot better in comparison.

If nobody else leaves for the B1G right away (which I think is most likely), then the PAC licks their USC/UCLA wounds, regroups, maybe adds SDSU, and does just fine with their media payout relative to the NB12 (though still significantly less than SEC/B1G).

Until the PAC has a new grant of rights in place to deter anyone from leaving to the B1G for a while, this will be an ongoing concern.

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On 7/5/2022 at 1:20 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

It appears that both Washington and Oregon are expected to apply for membership to the big 12 in addition to the 4-corners schools. 

So does the new Big 12 news about their TV deal mean this is happening?

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On 8/31/2022 at 5:03 PM, Pelado said:

Not a bad question.  I don't think there's a big current incentive to move.  There's probably not much of a per-team difference between the following:

  • PAC 12 payout
  • NB12 payout
  • Proposed NB12 + 4 corners teams payout

While I think the 4 corners schools are the most likely of all PAC members to move to the Big 12, they likely prefer to stay in the PAC if it retains all its current members.  If the PAC loses one or more of Washington/Oregon/Stanford/whatever, then the PAC 12 payouts likely take a big hit and the proposed NB12 +4C payout starts looking a lot better in comparison.

If nobody else leaves for the B1G right away (which I think is most likely), then the PAC licks their USC/UCLA wounds, regroups, maybe adds SDSU, and does just fine with their media payout relative to the NB12 (though still significantly less than SEC/B1G).

Until the PAC has a new grant of rights in place to deter anyone from leaving to the B1G for a while, this will be an ongoing concern.

Agree 100%. I don't think any logical P10 fan is expecting big numbers and I agree, the P10 is very exposed right now and GOR might be a show stopper for some schools, so I've heard. Kinda fragile is my guess.

Right after our media days, I posted some stuff from Mark Harlan. He was very positive on the outlook but he also made sure he covered his ass on more poaching from the two big conferences.  

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On 8/31/2022 at 6:33 PM, Swedish said:

I've been gone for months and don't really have the time to read 451 pages. What is the opinion of MW fans in adding Oregon State and Washington State? Would they increase our TV deal? I think they would be two great adds for the conference.

I’m sure @Did I hear a WOOSH? has a copy of his 15 page PowerPoint presentation he can show you. Complete with exact TV Contract numbers, who is going where, the exact market value of each school in FBS and in depth interviews he’s had with all ADs, Presidents and TV Network execs. 

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Breaking news from McMurphy 

 

 

Cougars fight for Dear ol' UofH

For our alma mater cheer

Fight for Houston University

For victory is near

When the going get so rough and tough

We never worry, CAUSE WE GOT THE STUFF!

So fight! Fight! Fight for Red and White!

And we will go to victory!

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On 8/31/2022 at 6:33 PM, Swedish said:

I've been gone for months and don't really have the time to read 451 pages. What is the opinion of MW fans in adding Oregon State and Washington State? Would they increase our TV deal? I think they would be two great adds for the conference.

Oregon State + Wazzu will hopefully entice Gonzaga to jump on board. That's the A+ scenario for the MWC.

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Pac 12 survival now depends on poaching BOTH the MWC and the AAC.

For the Pac 12, if it can DIMINISH BOTH the MWC and AAC then it can still lay claim to being in the Top 5.

The following tweet is exactly what the Pac 12 will need to do.

If the Pac only poaches the MWC, then it risks the AAC snagging the "5th best conference" title.

 

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On 8/31/2022 at 8:45 PM, BobcatGoldthwait said:

Pac 12 survival now depends on poaching BOTH the MWC and the AAC.

For the Pac 12, if it can DIMINISH BOTH the MWC and AAC then it can still lay claim to being in the Top 5.

The following tweet is exactly what the Pac 12 will need to do.

If the Pac only poaches the MWC, then it risks the AAC snagging the "5th best conference" title.

 

I can see SMU, but no reason to add Tulsa or UTSA. In this scenario if we're keeping every MW member, we might as well keep SJSU. UTSA is basically the Texas version of SJSU. 

The real goal would be to lure Gonzaga in the scenario, hopefully more of a northwestern focus and a natural rivalry with WSU would help.

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On 8/31/2022 at 6:49 PM, bigd said:

I can see SMU, but no reason to add Tulsa or UTSA. In this scenario if we're keeping every MW member, we might as well keep SJSU. UTSA is basically the Texas version of SJSU. 

The real goal would be to lure Gonzaga in the scenario, hopefully more of a northwestern focus and a natural rivalry with WSU would help.

A month ago I posted a prediction on the CSNBBS realignment board that if the Pac-12 is reduced to just Oregon State and Washington State, those two schools will join forces with the 12 MWC schools plus SMU, Rice, UTSA, UTEP, Tulsa and Memphis to form a 20-member best-of-the-rest conference.

The intent would be to stake a strong claim as the 5th best FBS conference, maximizing the likelihood of the conference champion landing a berth each year in the future expanded college football playoff.

Travel expense could be minimized by creating two divisions for non-football sports, with the boundary line being the Continental Divide.

I could easily be wrong about the specific additions, but I think if the Pac-12 really is gutted and the leftovers join forces with the MWC, there’s a high likelihood some additional G5 schools further east will be cherry-picked to create the first non-power superconference.  No one outside the four remaining power conferences will be making much TV money, so the quest for playoff access will become the key realignment driver for non-power conference schools.

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On 8/31/2022 at 7:52 PM, jdgaucho said:

That's one helluvah... conglomerate we'd have there

LOL.  Frankenstein may be a more accurate label.  Or for some folks, clusterf*ck.

But it’s just simple math.  If the college football playoff expands to include the top 12 or top 16 ranked teams, the champion of a 20-member G5 conference is more likely to make the cut than the champion of a 16-member or 12-member G5 conference — especially if that 20-member G5 conference includes most of the top-performing G5 teams over the past decade that are still outside the power conferences.

I know some of the teams I named don’t fit that top-performing label, and a few are even perceived as bottom-feeders, but at the G5 level all it takes is getting and holding onto the right coach for a few seasons to become a contender for a conference title and national attention.  UTSA had a breakout season last year, and UTEP appears to have turned a corner.  And who would have predicted that the past two MWC champions would be San Jose State and Utah State?  With more members there’s a better statistical chance each year of one of them being that G5 standout that can break into the top 15 rankings.

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On 8/31/2022 at 10:24 PM, Fowl said:

Man he has some incredibly bad sources - or more likely some source that stands to benefit from sowing misinformation about the Pac...

McMurphy is never wrong when it comes to college football news. 

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Cougars fight for Dear ol' UofH

For our alma mater cheer

Fight for Houston University

For victory is near

When the going get so rough and tough

We never worry, CAUSE WE GOT THE STUFF!

So fight! Fight! Fight for Red and White!

And we will go to victory!

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Share on other sites

On 8/31/2022 at 11:47 PM, HawaiiMongoose said:

A month ago I posted a prediction on the CSNBBS realignment board that if the Pac-12 is reduced to just Oregon State and Washington State, those two schools will join forces with the 12 MWC schools plus SMU, Rice, UTSA, UTEP, Tulsa and Memphis to form a 20-member best-of-the-rest conference.

The intent would be to stake a strong claim as the 5th best FBS conference, maximizing the likelihood of the conference champion landing a berth each year in the future expanded college football playoff.

Travel expense could be minimized by creating two divisions for non-football sports, with the boundary line being the Continental Divide.

I could easily be wrong about the specific additions, but I think if the Pac-12 really is gutted and the leftovers join forces with the MWC, there’s a high likelihood some additional G5 schools further east will be cherry-picked to create the first non-power superconference.  No one outside the four remaining power conferences will be making much TV money, so the quest for playoff access will become the key realignment driver for non-power conference schools.

I guess i don't see the benefit of doing a 20 team conference at the G5 level.  I can see the logic for the BiG and SEC because of the insane revenue and contracts being negotiated.  But at the G5 level?  Why create a 20 team conference only to break into 2 10 team division.  You are still only going to play 8-9 conference games.  To me it still comes down to rivalries and fan interest at the G5 level, because the ship has sailed in terms of realistically having any hope of keeping up with P5 teams and budgets.  Keep it regional and hold on to long term rivalries. From that standpoint,  the MWC is in good shape as it exists right now.  Getting OSU and WSU would just make it that much better.  No need to try and go after AAC or CUSA schools back east as I don't think the schools would see any bump at all in ticket sales.  

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On 8/31/2022 at 8:45 PM, BobcatGoldthwait said:

Pac 12 survival now depends on poaching BOTH the MWC and the AAC.

For the Pac 12, if it can DIMINISH BOTH the MWC and AAC then it can still lay claim to being in the Top 5.

The following tweet is exactly what the Pac 12 will need to do.

If the Pac only poaches the MWC, then it risks the AAC snagging the "5th best conference" title.

 

BYU swaps with SMU, and I would say that is about good.

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Is there a scenario where the exiting Pac-12 teams can vote to dissolve the conference and not pay exit fees? Not sure how that would work, but if not possible then the PAC-12 name probably survives and basically becomes the MW + Wazzu & OSU. 
 

I’m not interested in any other schools besides SMU (full member) and Gonzaga/Wichita State (basketball only). 

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