Conference Realignment thread

[utenation]

On 1/24/2022 at 12:39 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

You guys had your chance to join the MWC and passed on it so are you saying that's still in the cards somewhere down the road?

Gonzaga should also be cognizant of the possibility that both SDSU and Boise State (if its football program doesn't take a big dump) will be invited to the B12 before the end of the decade. Just how good would the MWC's next TV deal be if that was to happen?

 

My guess is the BYU move to the B12 opens up possibilities again.  I think the WCC was fine before BYU joined, not sure about TV contract. But the Zags would be a nice basketball add for the MWC. Not sure it happens though.

I also think the B12 has to absorb the 4 new additions, work out a TV contract and see how their numbers land in revenue sports.  Not saying BSU and SDSU won't happen but unless there's another P5 yard sale, I don't think they make another move this decade. 

[utenation]

On 1/24/2022 at 9:54 AM, RSF said:

Well, first of all, no they are not.  The SCHOOL has a billion in debt, thanks to a construction boom on campus having nothing to do with the athletic dept.  Second, the payback would/could come out of the sudden jump in TV revenues.  Same arrangement Maryland has.  And Texas is in no way that charitable.  Not a difficult concept....even for you.

Good Ole Woosh.  No legit sources, no facts, no published numbers. Just hot air. It took me about 15 seconds to read that the debt is school debt, not all from the athletic department. 

But then again, Google for clowns like Woosh must seem like rocket science.  I swear I heard @Did I hear a WOOSH? say he has 3-4 advanced degrees ranging from finance, marketing, mechanical engineering and college athletics sociology.  You'd think he'd be a wiz at this stuff.

[NorCalCoug]

3 hours ago, utenation said:

My guess is the BYU move to the B12 opens up possibilities again.  I think the WCC was fine before BYU joined, not sure about TV contract. But the Zags would be a nice basketball add for the MWC. Not sure it happens though.

I also think the B12 has to absorb the 4 new additions, work out a TV contract and see how their numbers land in revenue sports.  Not saying BSU and SDSU won't happen but unless there's another P5 yard sale, I don't think they make another move this decade. 

The MWC TV contract would pay peanuts to an oly sports addition.  I can’t imagine it would be much, if any, higher than the WCC TV deal.  The WCC has far more NCAA Tournament credits than the MWC that are dispersed across 10 schools (instead of 11).  And oh yeah, they negotiated a disproportionate share of those credits for the teams that generate them (aka Gonzaga).  It’s a REALLY tough sale to me that they’d be willing to give that all up to join an unstable MWC to share fewer credits equally across 12 teams (MWC+Gonzaga).  I’ll believe it when I see it.

[SalinasSpartan]

1 hour ago, NorCalCoug said:

The MWC TV contract would pay peanuts to an oly sports addition.  I can’t imagine it would be much, if any, higher than the WCC TV deal.  The WCC has far more NCAA Tournament credits than the MWC that are dispersed across 10 schools (instead of 11).  And oh yeah, they negotiated a disproportionate share of those credits for the teams that generate them (aka Gonzaga).  It’s a REALLY tough sale to me that they’d be willing to give that all up to join an unstable MWC to share fewer credits equally across 12 teams (MWC+Gonzaga).  I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

They do a 70% payout in the AAC with Wichita; if the MWC offers that to Gonzaga, that’s 3ish million. The WCC’s TV deal almost assuredly pays less then 1 million per team. So the MWC is capable of paying Gonzaga more then they make in the WCC. 
 

Gonzaga isn’t coming to the MWC unless it’s made worth their while financially. The MWC doesn’t want Gonzaga enough to make it financially worth their while. So, the move isn’t happening. 

[NorCalCoug]

2 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

 

They do a 70% payout in the AAC with Wichita; if the MWC offers that to Gonzaga, that’s 3ish million. The WCC’s TV deal almost assuredly pays less then 1 million per team. So the MWC is capable of paying Gonzaga more then they make in the WCC. 
 

Gonzaga isn’t coming to the MWC unless it’s made worth their while financially. The MWC doesn’t want Gonzaga enough to make it financially worth their while. So, the move isn’t happening. 

Link to the AAC giving Wichita St a 70% share of a TV payout share?  I find that very difficult to believe.

[Jack Bauer]

On 1/24/2022 at 12:39 PM, 818SUDSFan said:

You guys had your chance to join the MWC and passed on it so are you saying that's still in the cards somewhere down the road?

Gonzaga should also be cognizant of the possibility that both SDSU and Boise State (if its football program doesn't take a big dump) will be invited to the B12 before the end of the decade. Just how good would the MWC's next TV deal be if that was to happen?

 

SDSU isn’t going to the B12

[Jack Bauer]

5 hours ago, utenation said:

Good Ole Woosh.  No legit sources, no facts, no published numbers. Just hot air. It took me about 15 seconds to read that the debt is school debt, not all from the athletic department. 

But then again, Google for clowns like Woosh must seem like rocket science.  I swear I heard @Did I hear a WOOSH? say he has 3-4 advanced degrees ranging from finance, marketing, mechanical engineering and college athletics sociology.  You'd think he'd be a wiz at this stuff.

I’m still waiting for this clown to show us where Memphis bball is worth more than Boise State football. Maybe someday 

[StanfordAggie]

1 hour ago, SalinasSpartan said:

 

They do a 70% payout in the AAC with Wichita; if the MWC offers that to Gonzaga, that’s 3ish million. The WCC’s TV deal almost assuredly pays less then 1 million per team. So the MWC is capable of paying Gonzaga more then they make in the WCC. 
 

Gonzaga isn’t coming to the MWC unless it’s made worth their while financially. The MWC doesn’t want Gonzaga enough to make it financially worth their while. So, the move isn’t happening. 

Gonzaga might make a little more money if they moved to the MWC, but I can't imagine any scenario where they would make enough extra money to justify a move from the ultra-stable WCC consisting of small, private schools to the potentially unstable MWC consisting of large public schools. The only real justification for a move to the MWC would be concerns about conference SOS when BYU is no longer in the WCC. That's another reason I say that a scheduling agreement is a far more realistic possibility than Gonzaga joining the MWC as a full member.

[Spaztecs]

1 hour ago, Jack Bauer said:

SDSU isn’t going to the B12

It's the PAC or MW for them.

[utenation]

55 minutes ago, Spaztecs said:

It's the PAC or MW for them.

I’m not exactly sure of the politics involved with the other Cali P12 schools but athletically I think they fit. Even though we already have 4 Cali schools, SDSU could add value I think, more so than any other western possibles. San Diego itself is already a fit culturally and is a big metro. 
 

SDSU seems to have dumped a truck load into education, academic facilities and athletic facilities. The new 35k seat stadium is bigger than WSU’s and honestly there’s only a few P12 schools selling out football stadiums. Hoops is a good brand name too. 
 

I don’t see the PAC expanding anytime soon unless there are more conference yard sales but sign me up if it happens. 

[NorCalCoug]

7 hours ago, StanfordAggie said:

Gonzaga might make a little more money if they moved to the MWC, but I can't imagine any scenario where they would make enough extra money to justify a move from the ultra-stable WCC consisting of small, private schools to the potentially unstable MWC consisting of large public schools. The only real justification for a move to the MWC would be concerns about conference SOS when BYU is no longer in the WCC. That's another reason I say that a scheduling agreement is a far more realistic possibility than Gonzaga joining the MWC as a full member.

Gonzaga isn’t getting g a 70% share of the MWC TV payout just like Wichita St doesn’t get that in the AAC.  There’s really no case to be made that the MWC can offer more financially unless they do something that absurdly stupid.  With Hair leading the charge it’s always possible.

[thedude15]

7 hours ago, StanfordAggie said:

Gonzaga might make a little more money if they moved to the MWC, but I can't imagine any scenario where they would make enough extra money to justify a move from the ultra-stable WCC consisting of small, private schools to the potentially unstable MWC consisting of large public schools. The only real justification for a move to the MWC would be concerns about conference SOS when BYU is no longer in the WCC. That's another reason I say that a scheduling agreement is a far more realistic possibility than Gonzaga joining the MWC as a full member.

Yeah unless Gonzaga just can't sch OOC games anymore it really doesn't make much sense for them to move. As long as they are a top 15 program I don't see why it would be hard to sch a great OOC. I mean they can always do one elite OOC tourney and even if the other top 15 programs don't want to travel to Gonzaga I am sure there are plenty of top 40 programs that would. 

Plus if WCC is safer in the since that if Gonzaga's basketball program completely falls apart (ie say they are just a top 100 program in 10 years not top 15) the WCC is a better fit and they will still be in decent shape to win the WCCT many years. Or if the MW loses a few schools all of the sudden the jump up isn't really that much of a jump. 

One weird thing they could consider is something like being a basketball only member of the Pac-12. Of course you would have to give a lot to the WCC for them to consider that (ie a yearly stipend plus a OOC scheduling agreement) and the WCC might refuse regardless of what Gonzaga offers. Also you have to convince the Pac-12 to take a basketball only school which on paper makes sense but again pride might come into play and make it not possible. 

[SalinasSpartan]

10 hours ago, StanfordAggie said:

Gonzaga might make a little more money if they moved to the MWC, but I can't imagine any scenario where they would make enough extra money to justify a move from the ultra-stable WCC consisting of small, private schools to the potentially unstable MWC consisting of large public schools. The only real justification for a move to the MWC would be concerns about conference SOS when BYU is no longer in the WCC. That's another reason I say that a scheduling agreement is a far more realistic possibility than Gonzaga joining the MWC as a full member.

Yea, like I said, a deal COULD be made, but there is not enough motivation on either side to make that deal. So it’s not going to happen.

[Broncos4Ever]

12 hours ago, Jack Bauer said:

I’m still waiting for this clown to show us where Memphis bball is worth more than Boise State football. Maybe someday 

Hell, not even sure Memphis basketball is worth more than BSU basketball this year…

[wolfpack1]

4 hours ago, thedude15 said:

Yeah unless Gonzaga just can't sch OOC games anymore it really doesn't make much sense for them to move. As long as they are a top 15 program I don't see why it would be hard to sch a great OOC. I mean they can always do one elite OOC tourney and even if the other top 15 programs don't want to travel to Gonzaga I am sure there are plenty of top 40 programs that would. 

Plus if WCC is safer in the since that if Gonzaga's basketball program completely falls apart (ie say they are just a top 100 program in 10 years not top 15) the WCC is a better fit and they will still be in decent shape to win the WCCT many years. Or if the MW loses a few schools all of the sudden the jump up isn't really that much of a jump. 

One weird thing they could consider is something like being a basketball only member of the Pac-12. Of course you would have to give a lot to the WCC for them to consider that (ie a yearly stipend plus a OOC scheduling agreement) and the WCC might refuse regardless of what Gonzaga offers. Also you have to convince the Pac-12 to take a basketball only school which on paper makes sense but again pride might come into play and make it not possible. 

For scheduling options, once WCC play, in most years, their SOS will take a hit because of the conference so they need to schedule those other games to prop them up, however they need home games in Spokane which they could be looking at with scheduling. If you get San Diego St, Nevada, Fresno St, UNLV, those are better teams to come to Spokane than North Alabama, Kennesaw St, etc like that. That is why maybe a scheduling agreement with MWC or such would make a lot more sense with them. They could still schedule the big guys but games with MWC teams can draw interest from fans from both sides.

[Jack Bauer]

1 hour ago, Broncos4Ever said:

Hell, not even sure Memphis basketball is worth more than BSU basketball this year…

Wait, what? I was assured by many that this was the year Lil' Penny turns it around and NCAA tourney dreams are realized!

Maybe next year.

[jdgaucho]

On 1/22/2022 at 9:47 AM, SalinasSpartan said:

Yea I’m thinking if the WCC turns their noses up at GCU, Cal Baptist may be the school they target (Denver seems like a weird fit). I know I’ve given you shit about having aspirations that the BW will become anything other then a CA league, but now would be a good time to take a serious look at GCU. With the WAC becoming a Texas-centered football league, I think GCU could be interested in a move to the BW if the WCC is off the table.

 

While Denver is a regional oddball because of their sports mix, as a university itself they're not an odd fit for the WCC.  It was founded by Methodists (like Pacific was), but is now nonsectarian.  At just under 14k they would have the largest student body after BYU leaves, but it's not that egregious compared to everyone else.  Academic rankings are in line. 

Denver's problem is that basketball is fifth or sixth on their priority list; their emphasis on hockey and lacrosse has them culturally closer to say, Providence, than to Pepperdine.  Shore that up and they'd have plenty of options besides the Summit. 

I have a soft spot for Denver, personally.  They would strengthen any conference in most olympic sports.  

[SalinasSpartan]

9 minutes ago, jdgaucho said:

 

While Denver is a regional oddball because of their sports mix, as a university itself they're not an odd fit for the WCC.  It was founded by Methodists (like Pacific was), but is now nonsectarian.  At just under 14k they would have the largest student body after BYU leaves, but it's not that egregious compared to everyone else.  Academic rankings are in line. 

Denver's problem is that basketball is fifth or sixth on their priority list; their emphasis on hockey and lacrosse has them culturally closer to say, Providence, than to Pepperdine.  Shore that up and they'd have plenty of options besides the Summit. 

I have a soft spot for Denver, personally.  They would strengthen any conference in most olympic sports.  

I agree Denver would be a good fit as a university, I was talking about the other stuff you mentioned; sports they offer and geography. Not sure if the WCC members will feel they bring enough to the table to add a school in CO. But if they are going to big time GCU, I do think Denver would be the next best option, assuming Seattle is off the table. BW really should be jumping on GCU. 

[jdgaucho]

8 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I agree Denver would be a good fit as a university, I was talking about the other stuff you mentioned; sports they offer and geography. Not sure if the WCC members will feel they bring enough to the table to add a school in CO. But if they are going to big time GCU, I do think Denver would be the next best option, assuming Seattle is off the table. BW really should be jumping on GCU. 

 

Funny you mentioned that.  As crazy as this sounds, if GCU ever approached the Big West with a cash bribe, I believe everyone except for UCSB and UCI say yes.   They'd have enough votes - nine - to get in. GCU make sense in several ways and cents (and plenty of them) in others.

[jdgaucho]

1 hour ago, Jack Bauer said:

Wait, what? I was assured by many that this was the year Lil' Penny turns it around and NCAA tourney dreams are realized!

Maybe next year.

 

In all fairness, those were reasonable expectations.  NIT champs, a pair of heralded future lottery picks coming to town.  They were a preseason top-15 team.

Then the year started...