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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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1 minute ago, Brew_Poke said:

That's not what puffy taco means according to my browser history.

Might want to clean your cache, if you know what I mean, nudge, nudge...

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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9 hours ago, Aslowhiteguy said:

I like the coverage we get with CBS/FOX way more than what we got with ESPN. 

Disney talking about spinning off ESPN and making it streaming only. TV contracts will likely be unpredictable if that happens. CBS/Fox may be in the catbird seat in a couple of years. It could also hasten the separation of the top 40 schools to do their own thing as well. Much of it is driven by future streaming and gambling coordination like barstool sports and penn national acquisition on a larger scale.

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13 hours ago, utgrizfan said:

I think if the MWC offered 2 schools (UNT, UTSA) they'd have a real good shot at snagging them out from under the AAC. 

Again don't see the issue adding them as both bring upside, UTSA brings eyeballs potentially and BSU, AF and CSU get what they want. BSU move to the Western Division and the Colorado schools get some central exposure.

There are many of us still holding out for this kind of scenario.   And I think you'd be right.

Hoping the statement from Thompson that was published about standing pat is a smokescreen & show of strength (y'all would still be the best G5 without making any moves, so it's not a lie), and maybe negotiations are continuing under the radar. 

I think the AAC leaking this out there would force the MWC's hand to either make the offers or not...  UNT/UTSA/Rice have to think, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.  We can't afford to wait around for the MWC and let the AAC move on without us.

If the MWC offer doesn't come (not sounding good), we'll take the AAC move-up as a nice consolation prize.   It's way better than staying in C-USA.   Poor LATech, they've done everything right, they're just stuck in the middle of nowhere.

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6 hours ago, wolfpack1 said:

So if this is a go, this creates a situation for C-USA,

Let's say Sun Belt gets together and talk about adding two schools to get to 12 and let's say ads Southern Mississippi and maybe FIU as they are still in that area. That will leave C-USA with 6 schools. Now let's say Marshall goes to the MAC and says we were here once before and what if we bring another school with us would you go to 14?

Then if that happens C-USA is just about dead as a conference. 

I know a lot of what ifs but C-USA has to circle the wagons now, because pretty much FIU is now on an island by themselves

But there is a another thing that I haven't seen mentioned yet. If AAC takes those schools to go to 16, unless Boise, SDSU or Air Force go independent those schools don't have anywhere to go for the moment if something comes up pretty much for Boise Big 12 or bust, SDSU maybe independent and you see what I am saying. With the move from Aresco it could very possibly increased the security of MWC for foreseeable future.

The idea of this happening even 2 years ago was just a pipe dream for the SBC.    But man, Judy MacLeod is a terrible commissioner.   And the SBC has schools that are getting it done on the gridiron, so their profile is increasing.   I would not be surprised if all of these schools bolt to the AAC, SBC feels a sense of power, goes for the kill, and convinces SoMiss, LAtech, WKU (for the b-ball) & maybe FIU (for the Miami/FL presence) to join.   UTEP left to wander in the independent wilderness with NMSU.

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8 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

Poor LATech, they've done everything right, they're just stuck in the middle of nowhere.

IDK about that. They pissed off the original Sun Belt members a long time ago by bolting for the WAC in 2000 instead of just waiting one year for the Sun Belt to start sponsoring football. They also think they're above sharing a conference with ULL and ULM even though everyone on the planet outside of Ruston would put them all on the same level. They burned a lot of bridges to get themselves in their current predicament.

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18 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

There are many of us still holding out for this kind of scenario.   And I think you'd be right.

Hoping the statement from Thompson that was published about standing pat is a smokescreen & show of strength (y'all would still be the best G5 without making any moves, so it's not a lie), and maybe negotiations are continuing under the radar. 

I think the AAC leaking this out there would force the MWC's hand to either make the offers or not...  UNT/UTSA/Rice have to think, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.  We can't afford to wait around for the MWC and let the AAC move on without us.

If the MWC offer doesn't come (not sounding good), we'll take the AAC move-up as a nice consolation prize.   It's way better than staying in C-USA.   Poor LATech, they've done everything right, they're just stuck in the middle of nowhere.

Thompson wouldn't release what he released and then change his mind without a big change in the overall landscape. 

There won't be an invite at this time. Just not how Thompson operates. 

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6 minutes ago, BoiseStateOfMind said:

IDK about that. They pissed off the original Sun Belt members a long time ago by bolting for the WAC in 2000 instead of just waiting one year for the Sun Belt to start sponsoring football. They also think they're above sharing a conference with ULL and ULM even though everyone on the planet outside of Ruston would put them all on the same level. They burned a lot of bridges to get themselves in their current predicament.

Exactly, their desire to above ULL and ULM will ultimately put them in a much worse situation. 

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42 minutes ago, MeanGreenTexan said:

There are many of us still holding out for this kind of scenario.   And I think you'd be right.

Hoping the statement from Thompson that was published about standing pat is a smokescreen & show of strength (y'all would still be the best G5 without making any moves, so it's not a lie), and maybe negotiations are continuing under the radar. 

I think the AAC leaking this out there would force the MWC's hand to either make the offers or not...  UNT/UTSA/Rice have to think, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.  We can't afford to wait around for the MWC and let the AAC move on without us.

If the MWC offer doesn't come (not sounding good), we'll take the AAC move-up as a nice consolation prize.   It's way better than staying in C-USA.   Poor LATech, they've done everything right, they're just stuck in the middle of nowhere.

"Before the AAC news broke, sources told the Action Network that officials at North Texas, Rice, UTSA and UTEP had contacted the Mountain West about joining the conference. North Texas and Rice had the most serious discussions, but ultimately, the Mountain West decided to remain at 12 schools, sources said."

Brett McMurphy article implies the MW decided to stay at 12 before these schools decided on AAC.

 

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/aac-to-add-six-schools-conference-usa-college-football-realignment-charlotte-fau-north-texas-rice-uab-utsa

 

 

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18 minutes ago, JPCWBYS said:

"Before the AAC news broke, sources told the Action Network that officials at North Texas, Rice, UTSA and UTEP had contacted the Mountain West about joining the conference. North Texas and Rice had the most serious discussions, but ultimately, the Mountain West decided to remain at 12 schools, sources said."

Brett McMurphy article implies the MW decided to stay at 12 before these schools decided on AAC.

 

https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/aac-to-add-six-schools-conference-usa-college-football-realignment-charlotte-fau-north-texas-rice-uab-utsa

 

 

If they couldn't get more $ from TV partners to expand then there is not much more they could have done.

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SMU, because of their wealth, academics and location have multiple  potential options. I don't see them in the league by the time all of this settles down.

Option 1A: I should think that if the Pac is going to expand, there are few schools in the vicinity that are an institutional match for the conference. SMU would be very high, if not at the top of that list

Option 1B: If the B12 expands, their old SWC mates would be high on that list

Option C:  Seek an invite to the MWC to at the very least, escape the dregs of the AAC.

 

Here's my self-serving  delusional prediction for 2024/25: 

SMU and SDSU to the Pac

Boise/Memphis to the B12

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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18 minutes ago, SDSUfan said:

SMU, because of their wealth, academics and location have multiple  potential options. I don't see them in the league by the time all of this settles down.

Option 1A: I should think that if the Pac is going to expand, there are few schools in the vicinity that are an institutional match for the conference. SMU would be very high, if not at the top of that list

Option 1B: If the B12 expands, their old SWC mates would be high on that list

Option C:  Seek an invite to the MWC to at the very least, escape the dregs of the AAC.

 

Here's my self-serving  delusional prediction for 2024/25: 

SMU and SDSU to the Pac

Boise/Memphis to the B12

Again, their AD was on the expansion committee that signed off on all these moves. They're not going to "flee the dregs of the AAC" when they just invited those dregs to the AAC.

I'm not sure the Big 12 comes calling for SMU. Right now, it seems like they're just waiting out Texas and OU so they can add two more schools (possibly us and Memphis) and be done with it. And would all the Texas schools already in the conference really want to add yet another in-state competitor to recruit against? Even Houston was going to be left out until Fertitta opened his wallet. I can't see TCU being in favor of adding SMU.

I would be shocked if they ever got a PAC invite. I have a hard time imagining that the snobs at Stanford and Cal would ever want to share a conference with SMU.

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22 minutes ago, BoiseStateOfMind said:

Again, their AD was on the expansion committee that signed off on all these moves. They're not going to "flee the dregs of the AAC" when they just invited those dregs to the AAC.

I'm not sure the Big 12 comes calling for SMU. Right now, it seems like they're just waiting out Texas and OU so they can add two more schools (possibly us and Memphis) and be done with it. And would all the Texas schools already in the conference really want to add yet another in-state competitor to recruit against? Even Houston was going to be left out until Fertitta opened his wallet. I can't see TCU being in favor of adding SMU.

I would be shocked if they ever got a PAC invite. I have a hard time imagining that the snobs at Stanford and Cal would ever want to share a conference with SMU.

SMU's motive in the expansion decision could be driven by a couple of lines of thought, both somewhat selfless:

1. The need to keep the AAC as a viable conference after the departure of the 4 teams already identified and the knowledge that they themselves or other schools are likely on the move.

2. An altruistic move, providing a growth path for some of the lower level, aspirational Texas schools.

  • Haha 1

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts.”

-Richard Feynman

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

-P.J. O’Rourke

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20 hours ago, RSF said:

I'll point out as an aside that right now the MWC has better numbers than the AAC - and that's with UCincy.

 

https://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

 

image.png.ada45572b947f4b2343cfa8ce28312c0.png

 

 

Wtf are you showing us ?

The blue columns mean nothing w/o a key to the abbreviations or what the numbers mean.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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18 hours ago, StanfordAggie said:

Or we simply decided that it wasn't worth adding a couple more mouths to feed. If this tweet is true, I'm scratching my head a bit. I find it extremely difficult to believe that ESPN wants to pay each of these 14 schools $7 million per year. So I'm thinking that this is a sign that the AAC is about to take a drastic pay cut.

If our TV partners want us to expand into Texas, great. If they don't, also great. Personally I favor doing whatever our TV partners want us to do regrading expansion. If they think that Texas is sufficiently valuable that they will give us enough additional money to at least break even, I'm okay with expansion. But I'm a hard no if it means each school has to accept a lower payout. I would assume that most university presidents feel the same way. So if the MWC is not expanding, I assume that means that it didn't make financial sense to expand. If the AAC wants to dilute their brand instead of us, I'm fine with that as well.

AAC went to 14 because the smart money is on Memphis being gone in the next round of TV talks.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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18 hours ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

I’m shocked they went with six and that none of them were app state.  

Not in a sizeable metro. That has been the AAC mantra from the get go. Sans ECU.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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17 hours ago, RSF said:

The Texas schools split when the SWC cratered.  Houston went to CUSA.  And when the WAC split TCU left Rice and SMU.  There really isnt much of a group mentality.  And the G5 schools today are split as well.  Its every school for themselves.

Unless you're AFA/CSU or Boise/SUDS.

Those are the only schools that have made any attempt to work together.

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"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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What is the MWC’s TV deal worth?

I found an article online that quotes $270M over 6 years. That’s $45M/year divided by 12 schools comes to $3.75M per school/per year. I don’t know how Hawaii being a football-only member impacts the revenue shares. 

Is this right/the most current?

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17 hours ago, RSF said:

So plan A for the AAC was the Remaining 8. They were laughed at, and ESPN embarrassed for trying to orchestrate it.  And it backfired spectacularly.

Plan B was raid the MWC - Boise, SDSU, Air Force and Colorado State. Response was lukewarm and rejected.

So Plan C is...gut CUSA. North Texas, Rice, UTSA, UAB, Florida Atlantic and Charlotte. Reeks of desperation.  Which is what it is.

Not really. 

Yes, they went big on the Remaining 8 and got stepped on. But, they went big. Did the MW ?

They tried to gut the MW. It didn't work, but at least they tried. Did the MW ? The best they did was explore expansion.

The AAC gains new large Metro schools.

Charlotte and ECU are now travel partners. Same with FAU and USF who is no longer left on an Island.

They have gutted their regional competition.

Plus, they kept the MW out of the Heart of Texas FB recruiting and viewership.

They just checked five important boxes and boxed out their main competition.

Well played by the AAC.

The MW continues to be a reactive and not a pro-active Conference.

It's not checkmate, but the MW will be forced into a defensive  Castling manuever by adding UTEP and one of Texas St/NMSU.

Desperation or 3D Chess ?

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"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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