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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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12 hours ago, Cowboy said:

This. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

"Staying at 10" poses the same existential threat the Big East faced when it stayed small - AND THEN GOT RAIDED (when Cuse and Pitt left)...

Hair Thompson has PROMOTED the fact that Boise/SDSU can prop themselves up for expansion in the MWC.

So what sense does it make to stay small, and wait for the Big 12 to poach the MWC into extinction (like the old Big East)?

At the very least, adding 2 schools gives the rest of the league the security that they can continue, with the BEST POSSIBLE additions.

If we are talking about Big 12 Expansion in 2 years, the MWC is finished. Any MWC prospect today will likely be involved in a new conference contract by then (whether its the Sunbelt, etc).

There are people on the AAC board saying that "the AAC is finished," too, but the truth is that none of the conferences are "finished."

Even if it loses AF, CSU, BSU, & SDSU, the MWC will reload, and some of the upper-to-middle of the pack schools (e.g., Nevada, Utah State, & Fresno) will become the upper echelon FB/BB schools.  Meanwhile, BSU and SDSU won't be big fish in a small pond any more, and their teams will struggle if they end up in the Big 12, just like Cincy, UCF, and Houston will in a few years.

Take Utah FB, for example, they were winning 10 games/yr. before joining the PAC-12, but they're a mid-pack team now.  Same with WVU, top of the Big East, middle of the Big 12.

NMSU and UTEP and UNT would be sensible additions to replace AF & CSU.  

It might be a good idea for the MWC to start talking to Montana & Montana State, etc. about moving up to FBS, which they would probably do if invited.

 

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10 hours ago, Cowboy said:

 

I've heard the same things.

From everything I've gathered, Memphis and BSU will be anchors in their current homes for a good long time. 

The B1G has a similar approach with the AAU status.

SDSU is an R2 school, according to wikipedia.

Memphis fans are claiming that they will have R1 status by year's end.

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11 hours ago, Ibanez said:

At this point I'm sure Memphis and Boise State are safely in. If the Big 12 actually does try to get PAC-12 teams which is rumored, the PAC-12 will just grab Houston and TCU. I'm actually counting on it. Then Boise State, Memphis, SDSU, and someone else is definitely in.

Just a note.  While I am sure Boise is currently a leading option, particularly with BYU in….you lose some credibility by saying anything 2-3 years out is a sure thing.   That fact is almost never true.   

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11 hours ago, Ibanez said:

I haven't heard anything about FCS additions but Denver and Omaha were two names that I have seen. I have also seen UT Arlington, NM State, Northern Colorado, Missouri KC, Pacific, and Grand Canyon. No Big West teams. Not any good options. I'll have to ask about FCS schools and potential interest. 

I think staying at 20 just isn't what conferences wanna do anymore. Even Karl Benson said those 20 team conferences are a thing of the past.

I'll say this, if Boise State is in the MWC for the long haul I'd rather have teams that have fan support. I'm tired of going to away games and seeing the stadiums only a third of the way full at best.

NDSU would be an exciting addition for the MWC (or the American or MAC) as a FB-only member.  They have won 8 Division I FCS championships in the past 10 years, winning nearly 14 games/year.  The Bisons would probably be one of the upper echelon FB programs in the MWC.

They would probably agree to join as FB members, because the travel costs might be prohibitive for their other sports.  If so, the MWC could add one of the stronger BB western schools to join along with NDSU.

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11 hours ago, Ibanez said:

But you're looking at potentially an 8 team conference with 7 basketball members. MWC needs to be proactive now and convince CSU and Air Force to stay. At least CSU. 

Being proactive seems the right idea.  If MWC doesn't persuade those two schools to stay, it would make sense to come up with a Plan B and start implementing it, whether it would be inviting some CUSA schools, independents, or FCS-to-FBS schools.

The Sun Belt conference is arguably as strong as any G5 in football right now, due to adding FCS-to-FBS schools (App. State and Coastal Carolina).

Bearing in mind that Boise St. was an FCS-to-FBS school, a case can be made that adding two more of those might be worth considering.

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11 hours ago, Ibanez said:

Does North Dakota State even wanna move up? You and @lakesbisonhave shouted the same shit over and over again for a year. It's a broken record. We already know. But til your school calls Hair, we really don't care.

"If you build it, they will come."

If the MWC invites them, with enough broadcasting revenue to offset travel costs, they will probably come.

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10 hours ago, Ibanez said:

What if I told you Boise State and Memphis is already in? They already know they are gonna be in the Big 1w and that's why people mine Chris at The Athletic is saying if he was a betting man he would bet Boise State will be in the Big 12 within 4 years. And now Air Force And CSU who gave been on the MWC since the beginning is gonna take a chance playing in Philadelphia and Greenville, NC?

I have said from the beginning that OU and UT have to leave first. It will take time. But it's probably already done. You guys were driving me a hard time when I said Houston was able to slide on because of politics. Houston's big booster was able to get Houston on first. You all laughed your ass off And mocked me for two days. Then the report came out. And of course that didn't matter.

Unless something crazy happens Boise State is gone. Hell, 365 is talking about Boise State and Memphis right now being the new targets. Literally while I write this. 

Most of the media are speculating.  No doubt, Boise St. is one of the top five under consideration, but have you considered the possibility that Kansas and Iowa State, the two AAU schools, might oppose adding Boise for academic reasons?

That might help to explain why some people have Boise in as a dead lock, while others are saying it's not 100% certain yet.

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8 hours ago, Ibanez said:

This is funny and sad at the same time. Zeigler (SDSU) and (Prater) had a 15 minute podcast today talking about Zeigler's interview with Hair and some of the other AD's and sources.

If the Mountain West added SMU and Memphis those two schools would not raise the value of the conference. Sorry @Did I hear a WOOSH?

Also, if CSU and Air Force leaves it doesn't hurt the value of the conference. Once again Woosh... Said he understands why AF would go but when asked different people about CSU they just shrugged.

Thinks Boise State and SDSU are working together. Not sure the Big 12 invite is coming because of constant changes happening every day.

Thompson basically said they could stay at 10  because there isn't anyone to add. Anyone else takes value from the conference.

Word is if Air Force and CSU leaves the MWC is still considered the top G5.

https://www.ktik.com/idaho-sports-talk-podcast/

That may be, but it would depend on which other schools the AAC adds and on which, if any schools the MWC would add in response.

If the AAC has 12 and the MWC stands pat with 10, the AAC could end up having the most strong FB & BB schools.

Thus, failing to replace AF and CSU, if they leave, would be a pretty obvious strategic error.

.

btw:

Thompson's idea of standing pat at 10 ("because there's no one good to add") would make it that much harder for them to rebuild when they lose BSU & SDSU.

Nobody thought App State or Coastal Carolina would be good to add, but they were.

How many people thought that Boise State would be good to add when they made the FCS to FBS transition?

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3 hours ago, punchinello said:

That may be, but it would depend on which other schools the AAC adds and on which, if any schools the MWC would add in response.

If the AAC has 12 and the MWC stands pat with 10, the AAC could end up having the most strong FB & BB schools.

Thus, failing to replace AF and CSU, if they leave, would be a pretty obvious strategic error.

.

btw:

Thompson's idea of standing pat at 10 ("because there's no one good to add") would make it that much harder for them to rebuild when they lose BSU & SDSU.

Nobody thought App State or Coastal Carolina would be good to add, but they were.

How many people thought that Boise State would be good to add when they made the FCS to FBS transition?

I apologize in advance for the long post below.

I’ve been leaning and continue to lean toward the stand-pat option if AFA and CSU leave.  I like the idea of a full round-robin in football as it reminds me of the old 1980s WAC days.  Those were good times, with every game being a war.

However if the conference presidents are thinking safety in numbers they’ll probably want to backfill for anyone who leaves.  So let’s assume the MWC loses AFA and CSU, targets returning to 12 and wants replacements in Texas.

In that scenario I think the first add should be North Texas. The second should be UTSA, but if the AAC has already taken the Roadrunners then I’d go with Texas State over UTEP.

I’d also invite Grand Canyon as an Olympic sports counterpart to Hawaii.

Finally, I’d go with a north/south divisional alignment instead of the traditional east/west. In football each school would have an 8-game conference schedule consisting of division opponents, one fixed crossover matchup and two rotating crossover games.

Here’s the proposed football divisional alignment with the fixed crossover opponents paired:

North/South
San Jose State/Hawaii
Fresno State/San Diego State
Nevada/UNLV
Utah State/New Mexico
Boise State/North Texas
Wyoming/UTSA

This arrangement would set up most of the conference’s key rivalry games to be played annually, including San Jose State-Hawaii, San Jose State-Fresno State, Fresno State-San Diego State, Fresno State-Boise State, Boise State-Nevada, Nevada-UNLV, Utah State-Wyoming, and North Texas-UTSA.

Moreover the addition of Grand Canyon would bolster basketball and bridge the geographic gap between California/Nevada and New Mexico/Texas.

Everyone would end up with logical travel partners for Olympic sports:
San Jose State-Fresno State
Nevada-Boise State
Utah State-Wyoming
San Diego State-UNLV
Grand Canyon-New Mexico
North Texas-UTSA

The MWC would have a media presence in the following top-100 metro areas:
4 - Dallas/Fort Worth
11 - Phoenix
17 - San Diego
24 - San Antonio
29 - Las Vegas
35 - San Jose
47 - Salt Lake City
54 - Honolulu
56 - Fresno
61 - Albuquerque
77 - Boise

And finally, in a worse-case scenario where the Big 12 circles back later and poaches both Boise State and San Diego State, it would be easy to backfill with Montana in the north and UTEP in the south.

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26 minutes ago, HawaiiMongoose said:

I apologize in advance for the long post below.

I’ve been leaning and continue to lean toward the stand-pat option if AFA and CSU leave.  I like the idea of a full round-robin in football as it reminds me of the old 1980s WAC days.  Those were good times, with every game being a war.

However if the conference presidents are thinking safety in numbers they’ll probably want to backfill for anyone who leaves.  So let’s assume the MWC loses AFA and CSU, targets returning to 12 and wants replacements in Texas.

In that scenario I think the first add should be North Texas. The second should be UTSA, but if the AAC has already taken the Roadrunners then I’d go with Texas State over UTEP.

I’d also invite Grand Canyon as an Olympic sports counterpart to Hawaii.

Finally, I’d go with a north/south divisional alignment instead of the traditional east/west. In football each school would have an 8-game conference schedule consisting of division opponents, one fixed crossover matchup and two rotating crossover games.

Here’s the proposed football divisional alignment with the fixed crossover opponents paired:

North/South
San Jose State/Hawaii
Fresno State/San Diego State
Nevada/UNLV
Utah State/New Mexico
Boise State/North Texas
Wyoming/UTSA

This arrangement would set up most of the conference’s key rivalry games to be played annually, including San Jose State-Hawaii, San Jose State-Fresno State, Fresno State-San Diego State, Fresno State-Boise State, Boise State-Nevada, Nevada-UNLV, Utah State-Wyoming, and North Texas-UTSA.

Moreover the addition of Grand Canyon would bolster basketball and bridge the geographic gap between California/Nevada and New Mexico/Texas.

Everyone would end up with logical travel partners for Olympic sports:
San Jose State-Fresno State
Nevada-Boise State
Utah State-Wyoming
San Diego State-UNLV
Grand Canyon-New Mexico
North Texas-UTSA

The MWC would have a media presence in the following top-100 metro areas:
4 - Dallas/Fort Worth
11 - Phoenix
17 - San Diego
24 - San Antonio
29 - Las Vegas
35 - San Jose
47 - Salt Lake City
54 - Honolulu
56 - Fresno
61 - Albuquerque
77 - Boise

And finally, in a worse-case scenario where the Big 12 circles back later and poaches both Boise State and San Diego State, it would be easy to backfill with Montana in the north and UTEP in the south.

The benefit of staying at 10 is we keep our media contract it would move from 5.3 to 6.2 million per team and if Hawaii keeps its TV deal it would be 7 mil per team.

"Everyone wants a hero...And Derek Carr, he's going to be a hero at times."

- Pat Hill

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25 minutes ago, 1IvyDog said:

The benefit of staying at 10 is we keep our media contract it would move from 5.3 to 6.2 million per team and if Hawaii keeps its TV deal it would be 7 mil per team.

Not necessarily.   It may benefit from the CFP $ but in this day in college conferences. Staying small puts you at a big risk to not recover.  
look at the Sun Belt.  If they lose schools go the AAC they are in trouble because they stayed small.

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I would love to stay at 10 with a round robin schedule and conference champ game. Everyone can dump their annually fcs game and play one "money" OCC game, and a couple of home and home series (obviously want to set it up to have 1 home and 1 road a year) vs the best teams you can get H and H series with. 

But I doubt we stay at 10 cause that leaves us vulnerable if further expansion comes. I mean heck if we do stay at 10 and then BSU/SDSU go to the Big-12 in 5 years maybe the MWC ends up panicking and dissolving as schools jump ship. 

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41 minutes ago, thedude15 said:

I would love to stay at 10 with a round robin schedule and conference champ game. Everyone can dump their annually fcs game and play one "money" OCC game, and a couple of home and home series (obviously want to set it up to have 1 home and 1 road a year) vs the best teams you can get H and H series with. 

But I doubt we stay at 10 cause that leaves us vulnerable if further expansion comes. I mean heck if we do stay at 10 and then BSU/SDSU go to the Big-12 in 5 years maybe the MWC ends up panicking and dissolving as schools jump ship. 

Where would the other 8 go? There’s really  no where to go in the west. Back to the WAC?

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4 hours ago, punchinello said:

That may be, but it would depend on which other schools the AAC adds and on which, if any schools the MWC would add in response.

If the AAC has 12 and the MWC stands pat with 10, the AAC could end up having the most strong FB & BB schools.

Thus, failing to replace AF and CSU, if they leave, would be a pretty obvious strategic error.

.

btw:

Thompson's idea of standing pat at 10 ("because there's no one good to add") would make it that much harder for them to rebuild when they lose BSU & SDSU.

Nobody thought App State or Coastal Carolina would be good to add, but they were.

How many people thought that Boise State would be good to add when they made the FCS to FBS transition?

I agree, MWC should be looking to add high upside football schools. Take the short term hit for more long term revenue. If we put a good football product on the field, TV money will follow and we keep the conference stable when it inevitably gets raided. 

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34 minutes ago, tahoe84 said:

New article from the Atlantic this morning. What does it say?

 

 

Nothing definitive.  He says the AAC “is believed to be” targeting MWC schools “including” BSU, SDSU, AFA and CSU and also says AFA and CSU “are believed to be more interested in leaving than the other two.”

There’s also this:

“Mountain West ADs met Monday to discuss various situations and contingency plans in the event it loses teams. Those discussions include the value of staying together, potential conference additions or even staying at 10 football-playing schools should two leave. The league’s presidents are also scheduled to meet Thursday.“

So maybe we’ll hear something more after the presidents meet today.

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