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Did I hear a WOOSH?

Conference Realignment thread

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I've recently read where Memphis & BSU will not get invited due to academics.

Supposedly, they will only consider programs who are R1 research universities.  Also,  WVU has the lowest academics in the league and they don't want schools ranked lower than WVU.

I don't find that difficult to believe.

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45 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

The new Going For Two Podcast is out with Matt Brown. The guy who got the AAC poaching MWC teams rolling and has a good track record.

Colorado State and Air Force is not leaving because of money or better competition. They are leaving because Boise State and San Diego State are expected to be gone in four years to a P5 conference. It is a move about positioning and as a school out west, they feel they need to get on a conference out east while they can.

Here ya go @Did I hear a WOOSH? The AAC is losing their value. What Hair said was correct. This makes the second reliable insider (I'm not counting The Athletic) to say this. As usual you're wrong.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/realignment-musical-chairs/id1549029012?i=1000536263303

Also, we will use RSF's favorite podcast 16 team super conferences will happen and the Big 12 will probably be the next to do it. I was told Boise, Memphis, USF, and either San Diego State or SMU was the next four to get invited. But for whatever reason, no other team can be invited til OU and UT are gone.

 

 

Again...no offense to those schools, but I don't see what value SDSU and Boise State bring the Big 12. Enough value where the other schools are willing to split their pie 14 ways instead of 12. 

If we knew Boise was going to return to the level of 2007-10, I'd understand, but they haven't come close to that level in seven years. 

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13 hours ago, sactowndog said:

I find it stunning that any Nevada or Wyoming fans oppose adding schools to replace CSU and AFA.   Very few of the likely scenarios are good for either school down the road.  The Big 12, the AAC or both could continue to poach MWC schools and if that happens getting back fills becomes harder and harder.  

With our current record we could likely add UTSA, and UNT at a minimum which provides two Texas schools in decent size markets.   Personally, I would add 4 and go to 14.   This insures the conference could lose 2-4 schools and still be viable.   If we stay at 10 and lose 2-4 schools, you could both be looking and hoping for a Big Sky invite. 

I think you're wrong about Nevada.

UNR resides in a fast growing area with almost infinite proximate land provided that water will be available. At the moment UNR has probably the best athletic director in the conference and, contrary to UNLV, there isn't a single major league team to have to compete against. Also contrary to UNLV, UNR has a good football program rather than one of the worst in the country. I think there's a good chance that if the B12 should decide to expand into that state, the choice will be UNR, not UNLV.

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27 minutes ago, RSF said:

And you can do that after the fact, too.  Which is what was done.  As long as they are 10, no reduction under the current deal.

 

I get it just fine, thanks.

Because of conference affiliation the last 5 years, the 3 schools added not named BYU have tv ratings that are depressed compared to what they would've racked up as members of the conference. If you don't think those numbers effect the per team payout you're fooling yourself. The only party that benefited from not adding in 2016 is you tv partner. 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

Because of conference affiliation the last 5 years, the 3 schools added not named BYU have tv ratings that are depressed compared to what they would've racked up as members of the conference. If you don't think those numbers effect the per team payout you're fooling yourself. The only party that benefited from not adding in 2016 is you tv partner. 

10 teams, no reduction.  Its part of the current deal.  Full payment until 2025.  Not sure how much more clear I can be.

 

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This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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2 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

yes and what about the next contract? the one that will only have like a year or 2 with the new teams?

Next contract is the next contract.  Adding teams in 2016 doesnt help in 2025.  OUT are just as gone and the next deal suffers as a result, no matter who's still in the conference.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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1 minute ago, RSF said:

Next contract is the next contract.  Adding teams in 2016 doesnt help in 2025.  OUT are just as gone.

TCU is now the 4th highest tv draw in the B12 according to the medium article last month. Once UT and OU leave you will be 2. Do you think TCU was drawing as well in say 2008/9? It's ok to look back and admit the L8 allowed themselves to be bullied by the tv partner+OU/T.

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30 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

The new Going For Two Podcast is out with Matt Brown. The guy who got the AAC poaching MWC teams rolling and has a good track record.

Colorado State and Air Force is not leaving because of money or better competition. They are leaving because Boise State and San Diego State are expected to be gone in four years to a P5 conference. It is a move about positioning and as a school out west, they feel they need to get on a conference out east while they can.

Here ya go @Did I hear a WOOSH? The AAC is losing their value. What Hair said was correct. This makes the second reliable insider (I'm not counting The Athletic) to say this. As usual you're wrong.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/realignment-musical-chairs/id1549029012?i=1000536263303

Also, we will use RSF's favorite podcast 16 team super conferences will happen and the Big 12 will probably be the next to do it. I was told Boise, Memphis, USF, and either San Diego State or SMU was the next four to get invited. But for whatever reason, no other team can be invited til OU and UT are gone.

 

 

I listened to the whole podcast.  Interesting stuff from people who regularly talk to a lot of ADs and conference officials.  Regarding their comments on the MWC's situation, two things stood out to me.

First, the option of standing pat if/when AFA and CSU leave wasn't even discussed.  They just assume that the conference will look for backfill schools.

Second, in addition to the obvious strategy of targeting Texas schools to backfill the openings, they said an alternative strategy for the MWC could be to go north and target North Dakota State, Montana and Montana State.  If the MWC is considering that at all, even as just a fallback if for some reason the conference doesn't have good prospects in Texas, it would explain why Omaha has surfaced as a potential non-football addition: they would provide a good travel partner if NDSU came in as an all-sports member.

I know most of us -- including myself -- have a tendency to immediately disregard the possibility of the MWC adding FCS schools since that would be perceived nationally as a weak response to being poached.  But the point made in the podcast is that these programs are among the best in the FCS and have dedicated and sizable fan bases.  And they play pretty good football.

Going north also has some appeal geographically.  Let's assume AFA and CSU leave for the AAC and soon after BSU gets cherry-picked by the Big 12.  That leaves USU, Wyoming and UNM in the eastern division.  To rebuild that division, you can go south to Texas which will make both USU and Wyoming outliers.  Or you can north which makes UNM a single outlier.  I won't type out a long list of distances but if you check the data (or just look at a map) you'll find that Laramie is closer to Missoula, Bozeman, Fargo and Omaha than to any CUSA or Sun Belt school in Texas.  Even from Salt Lake City it's a shorter distance to those four destinations than to any CUSA or Sun Belt school in Texas except UTEP.

I'm not saying that going north is the better strategy.  But it would make sense for the MWC to at least be talking to schools like NDSU, Montana, Montana State and Omaha in the event that the best remaining prospects in Texas say they aren't interested in coming.

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8 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

TCU is now the 4th highest tv draw in the B12 according to the medium article last month. Once UT and OU leave you will be 2. Do you think TCU was drawing as well in say 2008/9? It's ok to look back and admit the L8 allowed themselves to be bullied by the tv partner+OU/T.

I have no idea where you just moved the goal posts, and Im in no mood to go look for them.

 

 

Have a nice day.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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7 minutes ago, RSF said:

I have no idea where you just moved the goal posts, and Im in no mood to go look for them.

 

 

Have a nice day.

Wow, you are emotional? Did I call you a name or something? My point has been adding earlier, when you know a team is worthy of it, is better than adding later for their eventual conference partners(the L8). You seem more interested in winning some argument than having an actual conversation. Have a good one man.

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, HawaiiMongoose said:

 

First, the option of standing pat if/when AFA and CSU leave wasn't even discussed.  They just assume that the conference will look for backfill schools.

 

 

^^^^^ That makes sense.

Because IF the 16-team format becomes the default standard, AND the AAC seeks to grow to 16, it's likely Wyoming/New Mexico become the AAC options on their Western flank.

The MWC should get above the 10-team minimum to at least give the league a fighting chance going forward.

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7 minutes ago, Cowboy said:

 

^^^^^ That makes sense.

Because IF the 16-team format becomes the default standard, AND the AAC seeks to grow to 16, it's likely Wyoming/New Mexico become the AAC options on their Western flank.

The MWC should get above the 10-team minimum to at least give the league a fighting chance going forward.

Hi Stunner. If the 16-team format is actually coming the MW is screwed no matter what...seems you either get in the PAC or align yourself with a conference that has a presence in Texas or the East coast. It's where the eyeballs are...

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, RSF said:

The last time they had an announcement like that was....2016.  Nobody's listening.

The old SWC is history and SMU is a part of that history, but I don't see history repeating itself unless the B12 gets raided, which I guess is possible. I'm with you though, no need to add anyone, maybe some Oly Sports schools but no need to replace for FB, we're fine in a 10 team conference. 

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6 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

I haven't heard anything about FCS additions but Denver and Omaha were two names that I have seen. I have also seen UT Arlington, NM State, Northern Colorado, Missouri KC, Pacific, and Grand Canyon. No Big West teams. Not any good options. I'll have to ask about FCS schools and potential interest. 

I think staying at 20 just isn't what conferences wanna do anymore. Even Karl Benson said those 20 team conferences are a thing of the past.

I'll say this, if Boise State is in the MWC for the long haul I'd rather have teams that have fan support. I'm tired of going to away games and seeing the stadiums only a third of the way full at best.

If you want a full stadium and awesome fan engagement, NDSU is the clear answer. Montana 2nd, Montana state 3rd. And those bottom tier Texas schools somewhere at 4+. 

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5 hours ago, Ibanez said:

During the last lawsuit FOX agreed to pay Boise State the extra $1.8 for that first season. The Covid season. FOX is doing it this year as well. Boise State had agreed to renegotiate the terms after this contract is over. I have been told Boise State has agreed to not get extra money but they get to keep the TV portion of the deal. So all of their games will be on TV. 

Teams are also putting games on Stadium and Flo this year as part of their third Tier package. We won't miss any basketball this year, at least conference games.

I think we might actually lose Air Force. 

It is interesting what keep the portion of the TV deal actually means.   If it means you have to get the entire MWC and pay more that is one thing.  If it means we are competing with ourselves that is another.  Hard to know without at least a term sheet being sent out.  

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1 minute ago, Ibanez said:

But you're looking at potentially an 8 team conference with 7 basketball members. MWC needs to be proactive now and convince CSU and Air Force to stay. At least CSU. 

Absolutely.  10 is extremely dangerous if you get poached.   I would be happier at 14 given the chance of loosing 2 in the future.  

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6 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

I like Wyoming and constantly praise them but being realistic, no conference is gonna extend them an invite. They need the MWC to say together in some form.  

Yep same with Nevada as both are in the 100’s.  Fresno/New Mexico are one step higher but really likely in the same boat.  Of course if any team goes on a Boise/UCF run things change and if Boise fails to win it could change for them.  

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