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Conference Realignment thread

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2 hours ago, RSF said:

 


1) UT and OU will negotiate to get out and join the SEC starting July 1st, 2023. That number will be in the 125-160 million range.

The remaining eight teams want every single penny.  The general wisdom that past is prologue makes people think the same thing will happen again but I think that when the CFP changes will affect exactly which year the changes happen

 

2) The next day ESPN will announce LHN is shutting down effective June 30th, 2023.

My guess is a 'SEC west' network with the current network becoming 'SEC east' just so it will be clear that SEC > ACC in the pecking order of ESPN.

 

3) Since the Big 12 TV deal requires 10 teams to get full payment, the Big 12 will announce that they are inviting 2 new schools, effective July 1st, 2023. Those schools will get half shares for the 2 years remaining on the contract, and the Big 12 will help fund their exit fees to facilitate an early exit. The AAC requires 27 months, and I think those 2 teams will be Cincinnati and Memphis. Decent to good in both football and basketball, and they help bridge the geographical gap with West Virginia.

I choose  Tulane and  Rice because

a) none of the remaining Big 12 schools want to lose recruits to Houston or SMU, Rice is mentioned by JFK in hie 'why do we go to the moon' speech, and Tulane expands recruiting into Louisiana

b) Both are private schools which Baylor and TCU  like and they are prestigious academically which Kansas and Iowa State will like.

c) Rice and Tulane have big endowments

 

4) Sometime before July 1st, 2025, Fox, ESPN (yes, I believe they will stay involved) and the Big 12 will announce a new deal that will be worth 13 to 15 million per year per school, with a moderately increased presence on ESPN+. ESPN's continued participation is due in no small part to this continuing to be a badass basketball conference.  The conference will also announce they will consider adding 2-4 additional teams under the same terms as the previous additions.

I"m inclined to agree but CBS has a perfect 'game of the week' slot for the Big 12 against the Big Ten on Fox, SEC on ABC and ACC on ESPN

 

5) The AAC and ESPN will announce that a new TV deal has been renegotiated. But they will be noticeably quiet on the details.

I think about four years before the grant of rights expiration of the ACC there will be new chaos in college football based on potential movement of Florida State and Clemson to the SEC or the best of the SEC joining the best 

Thanks for focusing topics

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2 hours ago, RSF said:

Here's what I THINK is going to happen...but I reserve the right to change my mind as soon as I'm wrong.

1) UT and OU will negotiate to get out and join the SEC starting July 1st, 2023. That number will be in the 125-160 million range.
2) The next day ESPN will announce LHN is shutting down effective June 30th, 2023.
3) Since the Big 12 TV deal requires 10 teams to get full payment, the Big 12 will announce that they are inviting 2 new schools, effective July 1st, 2023. Those schools will get half shares for the 2 years remaining on the contract, and the Big 12 will help fund their exit fees to facilitate an early exit. The AAC requires 27 months, and I think those 2 teams will be Cincinnati and Memphis. Decent to good in both football and basketball, and they help bridge the geographical gap with West Virginia.
4) Sometime before July 1st, 2025, Fox, ESPN (yes, I believe they will stay involved) and the Big 12 will announce a new deal that will be worth 13 to 15 million per year per school, with a moderately increased presence on ESPN+. ESPN's continued participation is due in no small part to this continuing to be a badass basketball conference.  The conference will also announce they will consider adding 2-4 additional teams under the same terms as the previous additions.
5) The AAC and ESPN will announce that a new TV deal has been renegotiated. But they will be noticeably quiet on the details.

Great post. 

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19 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

And still, the Big 12 will look over the AAC schools, pick out a few and say “get over here, now”, and those schools will immediately go. 

That is the way I see it. If the B12 stays together and tries to go east with the AAC they will have no issues poaching teams. Same can be said if they go west. Any team in the AAC or MWC will jump at the chance to make such a move.

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2 minutes ago, Aztec1984 said:

That is the way I see it. If the B12 stays together and tries to go east with the AAC they will have no issues poaching teams. Same can be said if they go west. Any team in the AAC or MWC will jump at the chance to make such a move.

I agree. I wasn’t implying that MWC schools would respond any differently, i just don’t think the Big 12 is going west.

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1 hour ago, RSF said:

the current deal is at 40 million right now.  13 to 15 represents a 60-70% drop, and would be combining the remainder of the Big 12 with the (presumably) very top of the AAC, whose deal sits at 7.  I'm comfortable sticking to that prediction.

I was thinking it was more like $26 million, the rest comes from the NCAA credits, Bowls, and ect...

 

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2 minutes ago, e-zone99 said:

I was thinking it was more like $26 million, the rest comes from the NCAA credits, Bowls, and ect...

 

The Big 12 media deals with Fox and ESPN will pay out about $23, $24, $25, and $26 over the last four years

the remaining money to get the Big 12 to about a $40 million average for those 4 years is Sugar Bowl money, Other bowl money, NCAA football playoff money, conference tournament sponsorships, and NCAA tournament credits

That breaks down to about $40 million 2 out of every 3 years for The Sugar Bowl I think there are 3 left in the final 4 years so $120 million

Other bowls are probably $30 to $40 over the final 4 years

NCAA Football Playoff money $50 million per year so $200 million

NCAA Tournament credits are about $2.5 million per members perhaps a bit more $2.75 per member per year

Big 12 sponsorships I am not sure

YOU WANT TRADITION? WELL......HERE 'TIS......The University of North Texas has football wins over: Texas Tech U......Rice U......Baylor U......TCU......SMU......Houston......Oklahoma State......San Diego St.......Kansas State......Arizona State.......Colorado State......Brigham Young......Oregon State......Florida......Indiana......Tennessee (a 6 & 5 SEC team & still our biggest win in school history)......Boise State......Louisville......Cincinatti (our last match-up with UC was a UNT bowl win), plus FOUR (4) NCAA FBS level Bowl Games (one while having a losing season record) in this millennium's 1'st decade while North Texas has had ONE NCAA Division 1 Top 20 ranking.

The North Texas Mean Green Village (located between 2 Texas interstates & which a recent TxDOT study said 200,000 vehicles drive by it daily) is a multi-acre olympic style village of athletc venues*dorms*computer study centers, etc, topped off with what GIL BRANDT: The Father of Modern NFL Scouting who described UNT's Apogee Stadium as a "Tah Mahal of a College Football Stadium" with Brandt adding... 'and I've seen every NCAA D1 FB stadium in the USA." All this along with UNT's fabulous 10,000 seat Super Pit--the Best & Largest on-campus college basketball venue in the D-FW Metroplex......AND THREE PONDS AND A BRIDGE!!!!!

 

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Shuffle it around any way you want including basketball and football members only, it makes no difference. Some conferences are growing in number some are shrinking.  Sooner or later one of the conferences, and it could be the lowest on the totum pole, will have to turn to division 1 FCS for a member. 

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2 hours ago, RSF said:

the current deal is at 40 million right now.  13 to 15 represents a 60-70% drop, and would be combining the remainder of the Big 12 with the (presumably) very top of the AAC, whose deal sits at 7.  I'm comfortable sticking to that prediction.

15'ish is what Thamel guestimated.  He is the best in the biz.  I think you are both right.

Now in 2025 invite Boise and BYU, ok?

 

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7 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

15'ish is what Thamel guestimated.  He is the best in the biz.  I think you are both right.

Now in 2025 invite Boise and BYU, ok?

 

I can be bought...

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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1 hour ago, azgreg said:

Hypothetical time. Let's say the big boys from teh PAC do in fact defect to the B1G and the remaining schools merge with the remaining schools of the Big XII. What do we call it?

The PacXll... oh wait... damn... too close?

"Make a mistake once and it becomes a lesson, make the same mistake twice and it becomes a choice."
 

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1 hour ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

15'ish is what Thamel guestimated.  He is the best in the biz.  I think you are both right.

Now in 2025 invite Boise and BYU, ok?

 

If the Big 12 media deal was $15 million that would represent about a 40% decrease from the final years of the current deal which will be paying out about $25 million in the last few years

YOU WANT TRADITION? WELL......HERE 'TIS......The University of North Texas has football wins over: Texas Tech U......Rice U......Baylor U......TCU......SMU......Houston......Oklahoma State......San Diego St.......Kansas State......Arizona State.......Colorado State......Brigham Young......Oregon State......Florida......Indiana......Tennessee (a 6 & 5 SEC team & still our biggest win in school history)......Boise State......Louisville......Cincinatti (our last match-up with UC was a UNT bowl win), plus FOUR (4) NCAA FBS level Bowl Games (one while having a losing season record) in this millennium's 1'st decade while North Texas has had ONE NCAA Division 1 Top 20 ranking.

The North Texas Mean Green Village (located between 2 Texas interstates & which a recent TxDOT study said 200,000 vehicles drive by it daily) is a multi-acre olympic style village of athletc venues*dorms*computer study centers, etc, topped off with what GIL BRANDT: The Father of Modern NFL Scouting who described UNT's Apogee Stadium as a "Tah Mahal of a College Football Stadium" with Brandt adding... 'and I've seen every NCAA D1 FB stadium in the USA." All this along with UNT's fabulous 10,000 seat Super Pit--the Best & Largest on-campus college basketball venue in the D-FW Metroplex......AND THREE PONDS AND A BRIDGE!!!!!

 

This signature is the sole property of Someone and any use of this signature without express written consent of Someone is strictly forbiden by penalty of law

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55 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

Buckeye Scoop reports what the B1G, USC, and FOX are discussing in terms or a merger and the financial benefits. USC and the B1G wanna make something happen and it's NOT a schedule agreement.

Washington State, Oregon State, and Utah to the MWC!

 

Would be cool if that happened. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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