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Why would the B12 "leftovers" leave for a GO5 conference?  Even without TX, OK and maybe WVU, they are still the 5th best conference in the country.  The leftovers will also be flush with exit fee cash.  They will have their pick of BYU and any MW or AAC school should they feel the need to add programs.  

Maybe the BIG takes a couple of leftovers, but they really don't need to.  None of the remaining schools would make the BIG a better conference.

The PAC has no reason or need to expand. 

If TX decides the 'New Deal' from the B12 is a viable option, they may decide to stay in the B12, keep their network and remain the big dog of the conference, which they would not be in the SEC.   

It's going to be interesting to see how this all shakes out.  The MW may not be effected at all. 

 

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30 minutes ago, RebelRobert said:

 

SEC & ESPN announced their new deal on December 10, 2020.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/30492065/sec-espn-strike-10-year-deal-college-football-basketball-starting-2024

Sources have said that UT & OU has been doing this for at least six years to one year.

The Pac-12 got a lump sum upfront to launch the P12N around the time they announced a then historic 13 year media rights deal.

ESPN certainly gave the SEC a lump sum to go after UT & OU (ESPN probably talked with both schools beforehand).  B1G will have a new deal with Fox soon and definitely will have a lump sum for the conference to help their new members pay off their old conferences.

It's just a pissing war between ESPN and FOX at this point.

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24 minutes ago, Someone said:

a "third party" in the case of that contract means ANYONE

I am not sure why that is so hard to grasp

it is very simple to understand....if any member of the Big 12 has conversations with anyone else (be it a conference, a consultant, a media company. a BOR member of a team in another conference, another university preesident ect) about leaving the Big 12 they are required to inform the Big 12

failing to do so means you can lose your voting rights in the conference

And I also don’t know what’s so hard to grasp that a conversation can be had where the two parties know exactly what they are discussing, but are discussing it in a way that is very hard to prove in court what they are really talking about. 
 

All I am saying is I am sure OU, UT, and the SEC were very careful to conduct themselves in a way that it will be hard to actually prove they violated the contract, so that at the very least they don’t have to pay the full exit fee. Pretty simple. 

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34 minutes ago, Aslowhiteguy said:

Why would the B12 "leftovers" leave for a GO5 conference?  Even without TX, OK and maybe WVU, they are still the 5th best conference in the country.  The leftovers will also be flush with exit fee cash.  They will have their pick of BYU and any MW or AAC school should they feel the need to add programs.  

Maybe the BIG takes a couple of leftovers, but they really don't need to.  None of the remaining schools would make the BIG a better conference.

The PAC has no reason or need to expand. 

If TX decides the 'New Deal' from the B12 is a viable option, they may decide to stay in the B12, keep their network and remain the big dog of the conference, which they would not be in the SEC.   

It's going to be interesting to see how this all shakes out.  The MW may not be effected at all. 

 

I agree. It comes down to whether the Big-12 looks east or west when doing their poaching. They will no longer be a power conference, but they would be the 5th best conference. If they raid the AAC, the MWC would be the 6th best conference and vice versa.

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29 minutes ago, Aztec1984 said:

One advantage to being on the West Coast is less competition for TV slots. I don't see the SEC having games start at 10PM so there will be a market. We already know we are a step below a P5 conference member and a giant step below the 10 or so teams that actually have a shot at the NC.

SDSU is not building a stadium to try to get a P5 invite, they are building it to keep the football program. Still, the entire MV expansion is a $3B project, not just a football stadium, which could lead SDSU to a 50K student population. There are still going to be kids that don't get paid to play sports and they are going to still go to schools to get playing time, not to just sit on the bench. And, the stadium is only used for some 6 Aztec games per year. We will still get a bowl game and we still have prospects of getting a MSL team. There are other options for generating income from the facility as well. It will be the best venue for football and soccer in the 7th largest city in the US.

I'll say up front that I am just speculating and this is just an opinion.  I am aware I may be completely off base.  

1) Regarding the west coast tv slots.  The question in my mind is not do they exist but how much broadcasting companies are willing to pay for them.  Right now, it seems not much.  This is why I say the conference affiliation needs to be stronger.

2) I kind of disagree.  I think the exact reason SDSU is building a football stadium is to get a P5 invite.  I think that's why they are still playing football.  That is where the money is.  

3) Of course the entire project isn't all about football it's about expanding the school footprint which will be good for school enrollment long term.  But I've pointed out above that SDSU is a very attractive school for students to apply to and that has little to do with football.  The overwhelming majority of students would apply to SDSU even if they didn't have football.

4) Certainly SDSU will be able to find SAs to play football but will SDSU want to if they are left out of the big party and are losing money doing so.  Right now, SDSU is all in on football but the entire landscape is changing and that may make it unrealistic for them to continue. (SDSU would not be alone here... it may be everyone who isn't included in the big boy party.)

5) I agree that stadium can and will be used for many things so eliminating football wouldn't render building it a waste of money.

Again, just my opinion so perhaps I am wrong about it all.

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11 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

And I also don’t know what’s so hard to grasp that a conversation can be had where the two parties know exactly what they are discussing, but are discussing it in a way that is very hard to prove in court what they are really talking about. 
 

All I am saying is I am sure OU, UT, and the SEC were very careful to conduct themselves in a way that it will be hard to actually prove they violated the contract, so that at the very least they don’t have to pay the full exit fee. Pretty simple. 

yet you do not understand that the exit fee and owing it has nothing to do with the GOR ending or the media contract ending

the Big 12 contract for conference membership is for 99 years from 2012.......that has the exit fee in it of an amount equal to two years final distributions

the aspect of giving the conference 12 hours notice is only in relation to maintaining the rights to vote on conference business....BUT even if one was to read that need to notify as you are reading it

that does not change other aspects of that contract mainly that only the votes of "disinterested parties" can vote on any aspect of conference business......so Texas and OU as "interested parties" cannot vote on lowering an exit fee, dissolving the conference, or any other aspect of how them leaving the conference is handled

and again the exit fees have nothing to do with violating the contract.....they are there no matter what

lastly I think it is very hard to have a conversation about leaving the Big 12 and how you are going to take your media rights with you before the expiration of the GOR without actually saying anything of meaning.....and attempting to break the GOR is yet another thing that can have your voting rights suspended

Texas and OU no matter what are breaking the 99 year contract for conference membership and that requires exit fees of two years prior distributions no matter what

other aspects are related to the fact that Texas and OU will not be voting on conference business now or in the future especially as it relates to exit fees, the GOR, or media rights, or the conference folding

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On 7/24/2021 at 11:59 AM, SalinasSpartan said:

I don’t think the Pac-12 will like SDSU, Boise, and UNLV being “elevated” and having their Western supremacy “challenged” in So Cal and Utah. If I were the Pac-12 I’d be pretty nervous about letting a new Western Big 12 form with the recruiting advantages they would have with their strong presence in Texas. With TCU, Baylor, Ok State, SDSU, BYU, Houston, and Boise they would start as not being that far off from the Pac-12, and that’s before the recruiting bump the MWC schools and Houston would get. Hell, the Big 12 schools could get a recruiting bump as well with the conference’s new presence in CA. 
 

I’d be pretty bullish on the prospects of a Western Big 12, It’d be a really entertaining and balanced league with a lot of potential. They could also easily lure Gonzaga and Wichita State also if they wanted to beef up their basketball. Hawaii and AFA (or any service academy) could be football only members. They’d have to hope WVU goes to the ACC to solve that geographic problem, but other then that there’d be a lot to like.



If you have the Big12 reduced to 6 or 7 teams, then I could see them, perhaps, inviting any number of the pool of MWC +BYU, as the final couple after they first poach the AAC. I have a hard time seeing the Big 12 looking west for expansion. I think the PAC12 is pretty confident in its position out west. Frankly, most eyes are east of the I-35 corridor and it'll be a hard sell for late-night kick offs which are used as late night inventory fodder. If, and only if machinations and rumors indicated a western expansion then I could see the PAC12 perhaps make a move, but I doubt it.

 

I think half the AAC should be sweating right now. I'd venture the MWC and PAC 12 are darn near irrelevant in this whole thing.

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1 minute ago, Someone said:

yet you do not understand that the exit fee and owing it has nothing to do with the GOR ending or the media contract ending

the Big 12 contract for conference membership is for 99 years from 2012.......that has the exit fee in it of an amount equal to two years final distributions

the aspect of giving the conference 12 hours notice is only in relation to maintaining the rights to vote on conference business....BUT even if one was to read that need to notify as you are reading it

that does not change other aspects of that contract mainly that only the votes of "disinterested parties" can vote on any aspect of conference business......so Texas and OU as "interested parties" cannot vote on lowering an exit fee, dissolving the conference, or any other aspect of how them leaving the conference is handled

and again the exit fees have nothing to do with violating the contract.....they are there no matter what

lastly I think it is very hard to have a conversation about leaving the Big 12 and how you are going to take your media rights with you before the expiration of the GOR without actually saying anything of meaning.....and attempting to break the GOR is yet another thing that can have your voting rights suspended

Texas and OU no matter what are breaking the 99 year contract for conference membership and that requires exit fees of two years prior distributions no matter what

other aspects are related to the fact that Texas and OU will not be voting on conference business now or in the future especially as it relates to exit fees, the GOR, or media rights, or the conference folding

I was responding to the specific clause  you cited and put in bold, as if it were a mic drop. It’s not, sorry. If they leave this will all end up in some negotiated settlement, and OU and UT are clearly conducting themselves in a way to try and pay as little as possible. Their actions seem very deliberate and carefully coordinated, and I am guessing that carefulness began long before their announcement today. Maybe OU and UT end up having to pay the full fee, maybe they don’t. 
 

And to be clear, I absolutely believe they violated the contract. Will the other Big 12 schools be able to prove that? I don’t know. If because of the SEC move 6 or 7 of those 8 Big 12 schools secure invites to other conferences, what happens then? I don’t know. Maybe Baylor is left at the end with 700 million in exit fees and all the Big 12 Tourney credits and they buy their way in to the Big East, who the hell knows.

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33 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

And I also don’t know what’s so hard to grasp that a conversation can be had where the two parties know exactly what they are discussing, but are discussing it in a way that is very hard to prove in court what they are really talking about. 
 

All I am saying is I am sure OU, UT, and the SEC were very careful to conduct themselves in a way that it will be hard to actually prove they violated the contract, so that at the very least they don’t have to pay the full exit fee. Pretty simple. 

Apparently the "schools" did not hold any discussions, rather the discussions were done by legislators from the two states. I'm sure they were attempting to assure they did not break the bylaws, though none of us know how successful they may have been.

More to the point, isn't pretty much every Big 12 school now guilty of violating those same bylaws, at least if the rumors are true, that all the schools have been contacting other conferences?

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1 minute ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I was responding to the specific clause  you cited and put in bold, as if it were a mic drop. It’s not, sorry. If they leave this will all end up in some negotiated settlement, and OU and UT are clearly conducting themselves in a way to try and pay as little as possible. Their actions seem very deliberate and carefully coordinated, and I am guessing that carefulness began long before their announcement today. Maybe OU and UT end up having to pay the full fee, maybe they don’t. 
 

And to be clear, I absolutely believe they violated the contract. Will the other Big 12 schools be able to prove that? I don’t know. If because of the SEC move 6 or 7 of those 8 Big 12 schools secure invites to other conferences, what happens then? I don’t know. Maybe Baylor is left at the end with 700 million in exit fees and all the Big 12 Tourney credits and they buy their way in to the Big East, who the hell knows.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter if they broke the bylaws. If they chose not to leave, the other 8 schools have already shown they want OU and UT to remain in the conference (such as offering them 1.5 shares of TV money for both UT and OU). If OU and UT leave then it no longer matters if they broke the bylaws, as enforcing the bylaws would likely just be that they are required to leave the conference.

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2 hours ago, mysfit said:

I don't think the B12 will exist after OU/TX leave.

Vultures are going to be picking over the bones heading to 4 mega conferences.

This is the big question 

1) The B12 leftovers will have power if they stay as a group & they could raid the top of the MWC & AAC, thus leaving the MWC & ACC reeling. The ACC might have more of an edge backfilling because out west, there's only the Big Sky below the MWC for FB schools unless the MWC makes a massive push into TX & basically forms a central time zone contingent with CUSA schools.

2) Regardless the B12 leftovers plus what every they can gather from the MWC / AAC still might mean the B12 is outside the new P4 - because the B12 will have been weakened - Plus the PAC or B10 might pick off a B12 program or two / four (Kansas & Kansas St to the B10.....Texas Tech & Ok State to the PAC) - which further depletes what's left of the B12 leftovers - ACC might window shop WVA since they are right there in the neighborhood 

3) This could be the death knell of CFB for D-1/FCS  teams not in the new P4 -- the power will be consolidated in 4 super conferences & that means scraps for anything left behind, which is about there we are now in the economic pecking order.

4) The MWC has the most to lose should some B12's remain as a block & try to rebuild a last ditch effort to remain in the power structure - But that will be impossible if the B12 is culled down to TCU, ISU & a few more has beens.........then the MWC might have some negotiating room to hang on & not get shredded 

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2 minutes ago, Someone Else said:

I'll say up front that I am just speculating and this is just an opinion.  I am aware I may be completely off base.  

1) Regarding the west coast tv slots.  The question in my mind is not do they exist but how much broadcasting companies are willing to pay for them.  Right now, it seems not much.  This is why I say the conference affiliation needs to be stronger.

2) I kind of disagree.  I think the exact reason SDSU is building a football stadium is to get a P5 invite.  I think that's why they are still playing football.  That is where the money is.  

3) Of course the entire project isn't all about football it's about expanding the school footprint which will be good for school enrollment long term.  But I've pointed out above that SDSU is a very attractive school for students to apply to and that has little to do with football.  The overwhelming majority of students would apply to SDSU even if they didn't have football.

4) Certainly SDSU will be able to find SAs to play football but will SDSU want to if they are left out of the big party and are losing money doing so.  Right now, SDSU is all in on football but the entire landscape is changing and that may make it unrealistic for them to continue. (SDSU would not be alone here... it may be everyone who isn't included in the big boy party.)

5) I agree that stadium can and will be used for many things so eliminating football wouldn't render building it a waste of money.

Again, just my opinion so perhaps I am wrong about it all.

The only P5 invite that would ever make sense is the Pac-12. Only the most hardcore SDSU fan would even consider that a possibility. The only way we get into the PAC is if they get raided by the BIG, but then what remains would only make it a G-7 conference.

If you are not already in a P5 conference you are not getting into one. With UT and OK leaving the B12 the remaining 8 members, perhaps with the exception of WVU, become G6 schools. In the PAC, well OSU and WSU are G6 schools You could say the same about the Zona schools, Arizona is not in a good market and ASU has the huge Phoenix market but lacks the academic standing.

My belief is the dust will not settle until there are just 32 teams who will actually remain in "the club." It might start out at 48 but that will be whittled down. The NFL does quite well with 32 teams. Again, there is, maybe, 10 programs that have a realistic chance at a national championship. Not sure how long that will take. There is no "revenue sharing" to try to create "equity" like is done in the NFL. Hell, even in the NFL owners work to limit what revenue the have to share (which is why you have premium seating and suites). There will still be other options for those that want to continue to play football, but they will not be paid and be more like the student athletes universities profess they serve. Football, to me, has peaked. The NFL is seeing loss of interest and keep doing stupid things that don't benefit the sport, parents are now encouraging their kids to go into other sports, and rule changes to make the game safer takes away from some of the appeal of the sport. Football will still be around but greed is really making the sport unappetizing for many people. I hear the 'Bama QB is already making $1M/year. What will his center make? NIL may be incredibly divisive in the college game. As football wanes, what sport do you think will garner more interest? 

Yes, building a stadium is a risk, but SDSU has no competition in a county of some 3.5 million people (5th largest in the US). And, many San Diegans moved to Temecula, commute back to town for work, given house prices so our reach is a bit beyond the actual county.  You will also find SDSU alumni throughout Southern Cal.

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1 hour ago, Someone said:

if they can get it done sooner than later when the covid is gone and things really open up there is going to be a massive backlog or bands looking to tour and needing venues

should jack the prices for that type of facility rental sky high.....all the more so in San Diego where the weather outdoors is pretty damn good most of the year....then you just bend the concert goers over on parking and with the raw land to park cars.....pack em on in

Petco is the choice for most big shows.  That's not going to change.  Everyone thinks Qualcomm was a good concert venue. There were something like 17 concerts in 50 years at the facility. They may get some shows that need a big outdoor space during baseball season but it's not going to be the cash cow everyone thinks it will be.  If these things (football stadiums) were good investments, the NFL would build them.  They're not. That's why they are pretty much all tax payer subsidized.

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On the UNLV to PAC idea.........let's list some things good & bad for UNLV

1)  :thumbsup:  Market size - LV is the 2nd largest western market that does not have a definitive PAC tie in like a school in the market or a school a few miles down the road (OU & OSU to Portland) 

2) :thumbsup: Las Vegas itself - The PAC already holds their BB Tournaments in LV & a major bowl is coming with PAC tie in, so the PAC already knows this reality 

3) :thumbsup: Geographic proximity - LV is within a half days drive from UCLA, USC, ASU & UA, and not that much farther from Utah. Also a short flight from CAL & Stanford - Then factor in LV is a major airport with easy flights from every PAC city 

4) :thumbsup: Stadium is sitting there NOW. No building on the come issues. The sitting stadium would be top 3 in the PAC if not number one on day one - Say what you will about UNLV FB attendance, but anyone with a brain would realize UNLV playing a MWC schedule vs a PAC schedule would immediately bring newfound interest & attendance from home & visiting teams 

5) :hmmm: Academics - While UNLV has a reputation as less than stellar academics, there is little doubt that UNLV is on the rise in this area. There already exists a decently ranked law school, a new medical school is open & the med building is already out of the ground and being built. The overall academics are on the rise and association with the PAC would only improve that ascension 

6) :hmmm: UNLV FB facilities - Again UNLV is ahead of the curve here. The facilities are in place & again association with the PAC would only increase potential recruiting and if the player payment thing is an issue, there's $$ in LV for that should the right players opt for UNLV

7) :unsure: This is the only negative that UNLV would face. The basic W-L history of the program over the last 30+ years. Again, being in the PAC might & probably would change this dynamic to the point UNLV could be competitive - being in the PAC brings an immediate upgrade to recruiting, fan interests and overall perception of the program

8) :thumbsup: Despite some years of mediocrity, UNLV BB still carries a cache' - The T&M Arena is probably better than most PAC arenas already. Again, being in the PAC will only increase potential recruitment and UNLV could be competitive in the PAC within a year or two 

9) :thumbsup: Las Vegas as a recruiting destination for PAC schools........there is talent in LV & FB, basketball & even baseball recruiting would be a fit on the local & PAC conference level 

Basically the positives & potentials outnumber the negatives as the negatives could be solved faster just based on UNLV joining the PAC 

UNLV med school building 

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