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Conference Realignment thread

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7 hours ago, Ibanez said:

People keep saying that and it's not true.

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I have no idea what’s going to happen to the big 12. The TV contract will probably be cut in half and if Kansas goes to the Big Ten and the PAC raids a few teams, who knows what’s going to happen? Either the big 12 or the AAC will be dead.

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13 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

If they all go to 16 and the ACC schools are off the table, only one Big 12 school would be leftover, unless the Pac-12 adds BYU then there would be 2. If the AAC still has 11 schools and there is only one leftover big 12 school it’s conceivable that school just goes to the AAC and there aren’t any big realignment shockwaves. 

I'm not sure people understand the politics of adding BYU to the P12. Bottom line, it will never happen. BYU is not a cultural fit. The P12 is a very liberal conference. They would be a good fit in the B12 for sure. 

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12 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

So you think you’re newly hired commissioner is going to just sit back and do nothing if realignment dominoes start falling? That’s just not realistic. 

yes, if what's left to grab isn't enticing enough to be worth the trouble and you can't steal a major piece from another conference (which the Pac-12 isn't in position to do)

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3 minutes ago, utenation said:

I'm not sure people understand the politics of adding BYU to the P12. Bottom line, it will never happen. BYU is not a cultural fit. The P12 is a very liberal conference. They would be a good fit in the B12 for sure. 

I was just talking about this as a math thing; adding a non-Big 12 team would mean there would be an additional leftover Big 12 school. Although in thinking about it more, if the Pac-12 ends up bringing in some Big 12 schools I could see them adding Houston instead of a school like Baylor. Houston would actually make a lot of sense for the P12.

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1 minute ago, Del Scorcho said:

yes, if what's left to grab isn't enticing enough to be worth the trouble and you can't steal a major piece from another conference (which the Pac-12 isn't in position to do)

Again, so the new commissioner is going to watch the SEC, B1G, and ACC expand and just literally do nothing? You realize in that scenario doing nothing probably loses the P12 money on a per school basis, right? Right or wrong (and I think it’s wrong because the P12 is usually better then the ACC top to bottom), the perception would be you have 3 16 team “super conferences”…. And the Pac-12. If you think the damage that would do to the conference’s brand wouldn’t effect your upcoming media rights negotiations, you’re just wrong.

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7 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Again, so the new commissioner is going to watch the SEC, B1G, and ACC expand and just literally do nothing? You realize in that scenario doing nothing probably loses the P12 money on a per school basis, right? Right or wrong (and I think it’s wrong because the P12 is usually better then the ACC top to bottom), the perception would be you have 3 16 team “super conferences”…. And the Pac-12. If you think the damage that would do to the conference’s brand wouldn’t effect your upcoming media rights negotiations, you’re just wrong.

You're speculating that the ACC and B1G are expanding. There is no evidence for that, just wild speculation.

does adding OK St and Kansas St to make the conference the PAC-14, or any combination of remaining Big XII schools add value to the overall media right package (on a per school basis)? I have my doubts. 

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I've been wrong before about realignment, and probably will be again, but beyond this UT/OU gambit, I just dont see any reason for any of the other conferences to expand.  Why do ANY of them expand?  Money.  And any school any of the conferences would add would need to pay for themselves at the very least.  And that list of schools is very short.  Any of the remaining B12 schools worth 35-50 million a year to the ACC/B10/P12?  Probably not, except perhaps KU (people wildly underestimate the value of their Bball program).  So, from where I'm sitting, OU and UT move (and I wouldnt rule of the B10 getting involved), the remaining 8 backfill and get a TV deal far less than the power conferences (but still much more than the AAC/MWC) and lose the Sugar Bowl slot.

 

As the poster with the most to lose in any of these scenarios, I hope this move falls apart.  But I'm not holding my breath.  I've been mentally preparing for the idea of losing a seat at the adult table since the day we joined the B12.  Whatever happens, happens.  Life will go on, and I will still be a fan.

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In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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40 minutes ago, RebelRobert said:

Hawaii has the advantage of their timezone and I have always believed they should be independent in Football.

Hawaii Football should start all home football games at 6pm local time and all home games should be on ESPN as the last late night game on Saturday.

It should be a college football tradition that Saturday late night is Hawaii Football playing some big time school every week.

12 home games for Hawaii, all big name schools playing there!

- For Hawaii, a 12 home game schedule is unrealistic.  I wouldn’t desire that anyways.  We are still the last game of the day, just there are more options than ESPN.

- I know a bit about the P12 and how the conference (the administration folks) makes money  and that’s through the conference championship games attendance and I think media rights.  I wonder if playing these conference championship games in Vegas and having a regular season game against UNLV, would eat into the attendance revenue for the administration?  Could the P12 be looking at Vegas, the destination, as a de facto member location for the administration without having to add another school there?  A lot of planning goes behind hosting conference championship tournaments/games so the neutral site makes sense in an accessible location.  The P12 could be using   Vegas for its facilities only.

- I have no idea how this all plays out.  P12 probably wants to be in Texas, at least for recruiting and the time zone.  And if you’re going there, might as well sign up 2 or more schools.  Texas Tech (NW Texas) and a SMU (how religious are they really; seems like they have good academics; Dallas) and maybe Houston for the market.  If we look at travel hubs, Houston from the Bay Area is easy.  Dallas too.  

- MWC schools most likely to be poached.  I could see a desperate and weakened B12 poaching the AAC but they could also be equal opportunity and poach one or two MWC schools.  They may try to get Boise (they are social climbers), Colorado State (close to the B12 footprint).  BYU.

- I’m rooting for the MWC to hold the fort and mimic the P12 if they move into Texas.  We will get second dibs though.  

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10 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

You're speculating that the ACC and B1G are expanding. There is no evidence for that, just wild speculation.

does adding OK St and Kansas St to make the conference the PAC-14, or any combination of remaining Big XII schools add value to the overall media right package (on a per school basis)? I have my doubts. 

Well yea, obviously I am speculating. I am speculating that schools and conferences are rational actors. Does WVU really just sit on their hands if OU and UT leave or do they desperately try to get in to the ACC? Does the ACC really just sit on its hands with its next door neighbor going to 16? Especially with WVU being a natural fit? What about Mizzou, they seem opposed to Texas to the SEC, what if they leave for the B1G and join with KU? The money would be similar, maybe more, with better travel and natural rivalries, and the SEC doesn’t have a GOR, so it’s not a crazy idea. 
 

It seems like of all the things that could happen if OU/UT join the SEC, the LEAST likely is the B1G, ACC, and Pac-12 just watch and say “well that’s interesting, wonder who the Big 12 will add to replace them?”

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16 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

You're speculating that the ACC and B1G are expanding. There is no evidence for that, just wild speculation.

does adding OK St and Kansas St to make the conference the PAC-14, or any combination of remaining Big XII schools add value to the overall media right package (on a per school basis)? I have my doubts. 

Now that Utah is an AAU school there are nine AAU members of the Pac 12.  Oregon State and Washington State are well resourced universities but simply don't have AAU member resources or play in a media market that adds to the value of the other ten members.

Consider If the B1G and SEC are at 16 it is easier for the Pac 12 to dissolve the conference and form an new entity with ten members on the basis having a more equal playing field.  

I'm REALLY speculating but I think its most likely that Washington State and Oregon State would join the Mountain West to form a fourteen football member, thirteen full member conference which in turn encourages BYU to rejoin (at least football only) and then UTEP (? but the Sun Bowl!) to form a sixteen member western football conference with fourteen full members in most major western media markets that are are peer academic institutions with the SEC and the ACC.  Fox and CBS both would very likely want to have the media right of a sixteen football member Mountain West .

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1 hour ago, AztecSU said:

Thats where things get interesting in SD. A Penny or Pumphrey type player here would get all sorts of lucrative endorsements around town. I think you are mostly right but there will be some G5 markets that might help their schools recruit more than they use to as a result.

While true, if someone is as good as a Penny/Pumphrey, why not enter the transfer portal and make some extra cash as USC or UCLA? It's all about competition for recruits and the small schools, even those that can still play the game, will be playing it at yet another step lower...not by lowering, but by the bluebloods taking another financial step up!

The best outcome would be for those schools to separate entirely, maybe an NCAA/NFL partnership, and the left overs play a truer amateur version of college football. I'd personally find that enjoyable as a fan in comparison to the ongoing arms race!

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11 minutes ago, RSF said:

I've been wrong before about realignment, and probably will be again, but beyond this UT/OU gambit, I just dont see any reason for any of the other conferences to expand.  Why do ANY of them expand?  Money.  And any school any of the conferences would add would need to pay for themselves at the very least.  And that list of schools is very short.  Any of the remaining B12 schools worth 35-50 million a year to the ACC/B10/P12?  Probably not, except perhaps KU (people wildly underestimate the value of their Bball program).  So, from where I'm sitting, OU and UT move (and I wouldnt rule of the B10 getting involved), the remaining 8 backfill and get a TV deal far less than the power conferences (but still much more than the AAC/MWC) and lose the Sugar Bowl slot.

 

As the poster with the most to lose in any of these scenarios, I hope this move falls apart.  But I'm not holding my breath.  I've been mentally preparing for the idea of losing a seat at the adult table since the day we joined the B12.  Whatever happens, happens.  Life will go on, and I will still be a fan.

The more I think about it, the more I think the B1G would respond by attempting to lure Mizzou to join with KU. I don’t think Mizzou would be happy with the addition of Texas, and objectively the B1G is a better fit. This would expand the B1G footprint by two states while keeping it contiguous, would stick it to the SEC, and bring in the Kansas City and St. Louis markets in to their footprint. It’s really the only move they could make that wouldn’t make them look weak compared to the SEC.

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6 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

The more I think about it, the more I think the B1G would respond by attempting to lure Mizzou to join with KU. I don’t think Mizzou would be happy with the addition of Texas, and objectively the B1G is a better fit. This would expand the B1G footprint by two states while keeping it contiguous, would stick it to the SEC, and bring in the Kansas City and St. Louis markets in to their footprint. 

The problem with that is 1) B10 has already rejected Mizzou once, and 2) does Mizzou bring enough value?  The Big 10 already is in the St Louis TV market, thanks to Illinois.  Which is why KU has value - the Kansas City market plus the national brand name (something Mizzou doesnt have).

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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7 minutes ago, RSF said:

The problem with that is 1) B10 has already rejected Mizzou once, and 2) does Mizzou bring enough value?  The Big 10 already is in the St Louis TV market, thanks to Illinois.  Which is why KU has value - the Kansas City market plus the national brand name.

The choice was between Nebraska and Mizzou in hindsight the wrong invitation was given.  
 

If the B1G invites MIzzou and the Tigers accept, it will be because the combo of Mizzou and Kansas is better than one and not the other, and because academics and the AAU matter.  The secondary benefit is that an SEC member voluntarily leaving to join your conference says a LOT about which conference is #1 and who is #2

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Just now, RSF said:

The problem with that is 1) B10 has already rejected Mizzou once, and 2) does Mizzou bring enough value?  The Big 10 already is in the St Louis TV market, thanks to Illinois.  Which is why KU has value - the Kansas City market plus the national brand name.

Yea, I think they do. As a SJSU fan I can tell you first hand that being in a market is not the same as delivering it. Adding Mizzou would help the B1G actually deliver the St. Louis market. 

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1 minute ago, Bruininthebay said:

The choice was between Nebraska and Mizzou in hindsight the wrong invitation was given.  
 

If the B1G invites MIzzou and the Tigers accept, it will be combo of Mizzou and Kansas because academics and the AAU matter.  The secondary benefit is that an SEC member voluntarily leaving to join you conference says a LOT about which conference is #1 and who is #2

if the SEC adds Texas and OU the gap between the SEC and B1G as the top two athletic college conference widens considerably with B1G being a distant second.

How does Mizzou leave that, especially considering the $$$ for these conference will shift in the SEC's favor.

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11 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

if the SEC adds Texas and OU the gap between the SEC and B1G as the top two athletic college conference widens considerably with B1G being a distant second.

How does Mizzou leave that, especially considering the $$$ for these conference will shift in the SEC's favor.

The B1Gs media rights value have equated to the SECs in the past due to the media markets having overall better demographics than the SEC and I think that will continue to be true.  Kansas basketball also would help Big Ten network ratings because mens basketball games are so much of the actual content of a conference network. 

Mizzou can capitalize on the absence of an NFL team in Saint Louis better with a schedule of B1G opponents than SEC opponents because those opponents fan bases are closer to Mizzou than every SEC school (excluding Vanderbilt).

Also, the B1G and the SEC have different media rights strategies because the B1G likes short media rights deals while the SEC has opted for longer deals.  Yes Texas and Oklahoma probably warrant a renegotiation with ESPN but the expiration of the deal probably changes to at least the early 2040s if not later.  Frequent negotiations is more likely to keep the B1G competitive with the SEC.

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1 hour ago, BacksThePack said:

I'd kick Hawaii's tires if I was the P12. They could build the nicest stadium in the conference if they knew they were getting a call up right now.

Having just traveled from Hawaii back to the Bay Area last night, and thinking about all this conference realignment talk.

1) nice way to suck the air out of the room on our MWC media day ass-wholes!

2) the West is made up of a bunch of urban islands with the “Mainland” being probably California or drivability to other member schools within large urban markets.  Still the urban Yuppie in me (and especially my wife) is not going to drive longer than 5 hours to see a football game.  Most likely we would fly.  This might be different back East, but that’s the situation and the West is a bunch of urban islands.  

Ok, so the University of Hawaii and Hawaii absolutely fits in with the Pacific-12 and they already play each other out of conference.  Problem is perception and cranky coaches, Hawaii is a far away island (5 hr flight from CA).  With charter flights though, we are looking at 2-3 hour difference from the farthest destination.  If the P12 expands east into Texas, travel will be further.  The flight back, after a Hawaii night game, is an easy red-eye flight back (not as easy for cranky older coaches; student athletes it’s easy).

Just wanted to say Hawaii is perfect for the P12.  But, that’s all (mostly) outside our control so let’s make the MWC the best it can be!

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2 minutes ago, Bruininthebay said:

The B1Gs media rights value have equated to the SECs in the past due to the media markets having overall better demographics than the SEC and I think that will continue to be true.  Kansas basketball also would help Big Ten network ratings because mens basketball games are so much of the actual content of a conference network. 

Mizzou can capitalize on the absence of an NFL team in Saint Louis better with a schedule of B1G opponents than SEC opponents because those opponents fan bases are closer to Mizzou than every SEC school (excluding Vanderbilt).

am I crazy to thing that will no longer be the case if the SEC adds two of the biggest properties in college football? My prediction is that the SEC will dwarf every other conference in $$$ shortly

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1 hour ago, Bruininthebay said:

I knew that the Big 12's upcoming tv negotiations would spark something, but I didn't expect the ish hitting the fan so quickly.

First of all, this does NOT indicate a series of 4 team super conferences.  The Pac 12 is about peer academic institutions in major western media markets competing with each other and UNLV has a long way to go as an institution before they are on that list. I agree Hawai'i, Nevada and New Mexico have about equal potential to UNLV if the media market justified it; Hawai'i probably is a little ahead of the other three as a media property that complements existing Pac 12 members.

If the SEC goes to 16, then I agree that the B1G goes to 16 as well.  The scenario no one has mentioned is Mizzou joining Kansas in the B1G so West Virginia replaces Mizzou in SEC east.  I don't think the ACC will expand to sixteen because Notre Dame prefers football independence.

Basically this is great news for the Pac 12 media rights negotiations because the Big 12 won't be much of a factor.  How the Big 12 expands/implodes/whatever probably affects the Mountain West's media rights negotiations.

I think the American will be able to take the best of the remaining Big 12 members (Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas Tech) but Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas State could really be in a tough spot (CUSA ?)

If PAC-12 allowed Utah in, anybody can get in.  PAC-12 is likely raided any day now.

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