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12 Team CFB playoff ?

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2 hours ago, WYO1016 said:

There are two pretty clear geographical fits on that map that aren't currently in an FBS conference: BYU and New Mexico State. Not saying we should invite/accept either, but that's the low hanging fruit.

If what’s been posted here multiple times is true, that the MWC wants a presence in the CT zone in order to get coveted early time slots, then (for that reason and many others) that 14th spot wouldn’t go to New Mexico State. 

Would the 14-team MWC look like this?

West Division

  1. Boise St. 
  2. Fresno St. 
  3. SDSU
  4. SJSU
  5. Nevada
  6. UNLV
  7. Hawaii

Mountain Division

  1. Wyoming
  2. Colorado St. 
  3. Air Force
  4. New Mexico 
  5. Utah St. 
  6. BYU
  7. (CT zone team)

“Available/Potential” CT zone teams

  1. Houston (AAC)
  2. SMU (AAC)
  3. Tulsa (AAC)
  4. Memphis (AAC)
  5. Tulane (AAC)
  6. NIU (MAC)
  7. Rice (CUSA)
  8. North Texas (CUSA)
  9. UTSA (CUSA)
  10. Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
  11. Southern Miss (CUSA)
  12. UAB (CUSA)
  13. Middle Tennessee (CUSA)
  14. Western Kentucky (CUSA)
  15. Texas St. (Sun Belt)
  16.  Arkansas St. (Sun Belt)
  17. ULM (Sun Belt)
  18. ULL (Sun Belt)
  19. Troy (Sun Belt)
  20. South Alabama (Sun Belt)
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https://www.si.com/college/2021/06/16/college-football-playoff-expansion-12-teams-why

 

If Bowlsby’s notes could talk, they’d tell you that the working group of three commissioners—Bowlsby, Greg Sankey (SEC) and Craig Thompson (Mountain West)—and one athletic director, Jack Swarbrick (Notre Dame), examined nearly 100 playoff models, one of which even included a 24-team bracket.

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2 hours ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

I know you’re just speculating but this doesn’t make sense.  There are only six total spots available for you, as opposed to four before.  So even if we lived in a magical fairy land your odds went from zero to rounded down to zero.  Unfortunately reality just paints the picture bleaker than before.  One spot will be reserved for in case the MW outplays the PAC, that’ll happen occasionally.  The sec was getting two in before, they wouldn’t agree unless it increased their playoff pool, so let’s count three sec teams.  Count two big 10 teams.  Now, independents.  ND is in.  They aren’t going to give 1/3 of the available playoff spots to independents.  The only feasible way byu will get in as an independent is if ND is unequivocally bad, there are no Cinderella teams in the other four leagues, the PAC doesn’t send two teams to the playoffs, and BYU goes undefeated.  Oh, Texas will have to keep sucking too.  If they ever catch on then even the above won’t be enough and ND will be in your situation and you’ll be on UConn’s but with worse basketball.
 

None of this makes sense, and i am not even a BYU fan.  But opinions vary.  BYU is not going to go from being indy and cherry picking G5 schools mixed with P5 schools every year to playing a MWC schedule for a chance at a playoff.  If they do join, i'll be happy to admit i was wrong.  I'm guessing they won't return to the MWC because of a 12 team playoff. though.  Now there may be other factors that could play in to them changing course, like conference musical chairs again.  If the B12 were to lose multiple schools, as one example.  And that isn't happening anytime soon.

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1 hour ago, TheBigAwesome said:

If what’s been posted here multiple times is true, that the MWC wants a presence in the CT zone in order to get coveted early time slots, then (for that reason and many others) that 14th spot wouldn’t go to New Mexico State. 

Would the 14-team MWC look like this?

West Division

  1. Boise St. 
  2. Fresno St. 
  3. SDSU
  4. SJSU
  5. Nevada
  6. UNLV
  7. Hawaii

Mountain Division

  1. Wyoming
  2. Colorado St. 
  3. Air Force
  4. New Mexico 
  5. Utah St. 
  6. BYU
  7. (CT zone team)

“Available/Potential” CT zone teams

  1. Houston (AAC)
  2. SMU (AAC)
  3. Tulsa (AAC)
  4. Memphis (AAC)
  5. Tulane (AAC)
  6. NIU (MAC)
  7. Rice (CUSA)
  8. North Texas (CUSA)
  9. UTSA (CUSA)
  10. Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
  11. Southern Miss (CUSA)
  12. UAB (CUSA)
  13. Middle Tennessee (CUSA)
  14. Western Kentucky (CUSA)
  15. Texas St. (Sun Belt)
  16.  Arkansas St. (Sun Belt)
  17. ULM (Sun Belt)
  18. ULL (Sun Belt)
  19. Troy (Sun Belt)
  20. South Alabama (Sun Belt)

I'm incredibly skeptical that the conference would ever be back in the Central time zone. They've tried it twice already; once in the final days of the mega-WAC and once with TCU. Mega-WAC was a trainwreck, and TCU bolted not only for the money, but also because they were located firmly within the Big 12 footprint.

We're already in three time zones for football. Hawaii isn't in the conference for all other sports because it's too damned expensive to work the non-revenue sports into a conference so far away from home. No way in hell any of the schools in this conference will be ok sending their swimming and diving teams to the eastern half of Texas or further. Especially the California schools.

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1 hour ago, TheBigAwesome said:

If what’s been posted here multiple times is true, that the MWC wants a presence in the CT zone in order to get coveted early time slots, then (for that reason and many others) that 14th spot wouldn’t go to New Mexico State. 

Would the 14-team MWC look like this?

West Division

  1. Boise St. 
  2. Fresno St. 
  3. SDSU
  4. SJSU
  5. Nevada
  6. UNLV
  7. Hawaii

Mountain Division

  1. Wyoming
  2. Colorado St. 
  3. Air Force
  4. New Mexico 
  5. Utah St. 
  6. BYU
  7. (CT zone team)

“Available/Potential” CT zone teams

  1. Houston (AAC)
  2. SMU (AAC)
  3. Tulsa (AAC)
  4. Memphis (AAC)
  5. Tulane (AAC)
  6. NIU (MAC)
  7. Rice (CUSA)
  8. North Texas (CUSA)
  9. UTSA (CUSA)
  10. Louisiana Tech (CUSA)
  11. Southern Miss (CUSA)
  12. UAB (CUSA)
  13. Middle Tennessee (CUSA)
  14. Western Kentucky (CUSA)
  15. Texas St. (Sun Belt)
  16.  Arkansas St. (Sun Belt)
  17. ULM (Sun Belt)
  18. ULL (Sun Belt)
  19. Troy (Sun Belt)
  20. South Alabama (Sun Belt)

It may not be NMSU if schools were added, but it sure isn't going to be top AAC or any Sun Belt schools listed either.  CUSA schools, some of them, would consider the move.

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19 minutes ago, WYO1016 said:

I'm incredibly skeptical that the conference would ever be back in the Central time zone. They've tried it twice already; once in the final days of the mega-WAC and once with TCU. Mega-WAC was a trainwreck, and TCU bolted not only for the money, but also because they were located firmly within the Big 12 footprint.

We're already in three time zones for football. Hawaii isn't in the conference for all other sports because it's too damned expensive to work the non-revenue sports into a conference so far away from home. No way in hell any of the schools in this conference will be ok sending their swimming and diving teams to the eastern half of Texas or further. Especially the California schools.

I’ve seen it posted here several times and many/most seem to agree that it’s a priority with the conference but who knows if it actually is. 

Problem is, there really isn’t anywhere else to go. IF the MWC wanted to add BYU, and IF it wanted to add a 14th team to even things out, the only current FBS teams available in the Mountain and Pacific time zones are New Mexico State and UTEP. Given those options, the conference will almost assuredly go east. 

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22 minutes ago, alum93 said:

It may not be NMSU if schools were added, but it sure isn't going to be top AAC or any Sun Belt schools listed either.  CUSA schools, some of them, would consider the move.

If you’re eliminating the AAC and Sun Belt schools listed, then your list of 20 is now a list of NINE. 

Probably about half of those nine could easily be discounted as well, leaving you with NIU, the three TX schools from CUSA, and maybe Louisiana Tech. 

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1 hour ago, TheBigAwesome said:

If you’re eliminating the AAC and Sun Belt schools listed, then your list of 20 is now a list of NINE. 

Probably about half of those nine could easily be discounted as well, leaving you with NIU, the three TX schools from CUSA, and maybe Louisiana Tech. 

I think UTEP would be on a short list based on location, facilities, and history with conference members.  

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3 hours ago, RSF said:

https://www.si.com/college/2021/06/16/college-football-playoff-expansion-12-teams-why

 

If Bowlsby’s notes could talk, they’d tell you that the working group of three commissioners—Bowlsby, Greg Sankey (SEC) and Craig Thompson (Mountain West)—and one athletic director, Jack Swarbrick (Notre Dame), examined nearly 100 playoff models, one of which even included a 24-team bracket.

Credit to Craig Thompson to help work the G5 guarantee in the playoffs.

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If BYU rejoins the Mountain West, I presume it will be as a football only member to get better access to a twelve team college football playoff and to keep a share of those sweet-sweet Gonzaga tournament credits.  

A balanced Mountain West would likely move Boise to the West as the most geographically west institution and add either UTEP or New Mexico State.  Unfortunately both are in the same market and UTEP > New Mexico State, so UTEP likely becomes the 14th football member and the 12th olympic sports member of the MW.

Don't dismiss that adding the Sun Bowl to the Mountain West's portfolio of on campus bowl games does upgrade the overall lineup because of the history and tradition of that bowl game.  The Sun Bowl matchup of a AAC West v MW Mountain team is great and if an AAC east or MW West team has to go to El Paso sometimes it isn't that far out of the way.

Certainly Pac 12 fans prefer to travel to Las Vegas and San Diego more than to El Paso or Sante Fe but MW matchups in any of those locations are still appealing and reasonably close. 

There is no reason to be snobby about UTEP (or football v men's soccer).   BYU and UTEP together bring enough to grow the MW's 'pie' so that expanding to 14 is a reasonable step.

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10 minutes ago, Bruininthebay said:

There is no reason to be snobby about UTEP (or football v men's soccer).   BYU and UTEP together bring enough to grow the MW's 'pie' so that expanding to 14 is a reasonable step.

Agree 100% but BYU will only come if it makes sense $$$ wise IMO.  I think they get a better chance of getting into the playoff if they join the MWC but that alone may not be enough.  UTEP is a sleeping giant IMO.  Great FB stadium and BB arena and located squarely in the MWC footprint.  

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3 hours ago, alum93 said:

None of this makes sense, and i am not even a BYU fan.  But opinions vary.  BYU is not going to go from being indy and cherry picking G5 schools mixed with P5 schools every year to playing a MWC schedule for a chance at a playoff.  If they do join, i'll be happy to admit i was wrong.  I'm guessing they won't return to the MWC because of a 12 team playoff. though.  Now there may be other factors that could play in to them changing course, like conference musical chairs again.  If the B12 were to lose multiple schools, as one example.  And that isn't happening anytime soon.

Yeah, they wouldn’t likely go to the MWC.

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20 minutes ago, Bruininthebay said:

There is no reason to be snobby about UTEP (or football v men's soccer).   BYU and UTEP together bring enough to grow the MW's 'pie' so that expanding to 14 is a reasonable step.

Let's take a look at UTEP football since the inception of the Mountain West

image.png.f2fac76694bf4466c322e3d49a3ba5ec.png

Average of 4 wins per season.

Here's how they stack up against the rest of the MW in rounded average wins per season over the past 10 normal years (2010-2019):

  1. Boise State - 11
  2. San Diego State - 9
  3. Air Force - 7
  4. Utah State - 7
  5. Fresno State - 7
  6. Nevada - 7
  7. Colorado State - 6
  8. Wyoming - 6
  9. Hawaii - 5
  10. San Jose State - 5
  11. New Mexico - 4
  12. UNLV - 4
  13. UTEP - 3

We don't need another bottom feeder.

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23 minutes ago, Hoser said:

Agree 100% but BYU will only come if it makes sense $$$ wise IMO.  I think they get a better chance of getting into the playoff if they join the MWC but that alone may not be enough.  UTEP is a sleeping giant IMO.  Great FB stadium and BB arena and located squarely in the MWC footprint.  

Squarely?  More like barely, if that.

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46 minutes ago, Bruininthebay said:

If BYU rejoins the Mountain West, I presume it will be as a football only member to get better access to a twelve team college football playoff and to keep a share of those sweet-sweet Gonzaga tournament credits.  

A balanced Mountain West would likely move Boise to the West as the most geographically west institution and add either UTEP or New Mexico State.  Unfortunately both are in the same market and UTEP > New Mexico State, so UTEP likely becomes the 14th football member and the 12th olympic sports member of the MW.

Don't dismiss that adding the Sun Bowl to the Mountain West's portfolio of on campus bowl games does upgrade the overall lineup because of the history and tradition of that bowl game.  The Sun Bowl matchup of a AAC West v MW Mountain team is great and if an AAC east or MW West team has to go to El Paso sometimes it isn't that far out of the way.

Certainly Pac 12 fans prefer to travel to Las Vegas and San Diego more than to El Paso or Sante Fe but MW matchups in any of those locations are still appealing and reasonably close. 

There is no reason to be snobby about UTEP (or football v men's soccer).   BYU and UTEP together bring enough to grow the MW's 'pie' so that expanding to 14 is a reasonable step.

NMSU is not in the same market as UTEP.  Though the campuses are only 40 miles apart, UTEP can draw from a city of 700k in Texas and the school is part of the UT system ($$).  Las Cruces is a much smaller city of 100k.    UTEP also has a 50k+ capacity stadium.  The fact that NMSU has dominated them in basketball for the last decade and won 3 out of the last 4 in football says more about the mismanagement at UTEP, as they have a huge advantage in pretty much every aspect when it comes to college athletics.  UTEP has pretty much whiffed on coaches since Haskins retired, but with the right coach and conference and given their history, they could be competitive in the MWC quickly in my opinion in basketball.  Football would still struggle, as would NMSU.  For what it's worth, NMSU basketball would be an asset to the conference, but the other disadvantages mentioned would be difficult to overcome in terms of getting an invite.  Now if there were massive changes in conferences...  

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1 hour ago, alum93 said:

I think UTEP would be on a short list based on location, facilities, and history with conference members.  

La Tech wouldn’t leave for the MW.  NIU is intriguing but they’d be on an island.  What about ndsu/sdsu? 

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13 minutes ago, WYO1016 said:

Let's take a look at UTEP football since the inception of the Mountain West

image.png.f2fac76694bf4466c322e3d49a3ba5ec.png

Average of 4 wins per season.

Here's how they stack up against the rest of the MW in rounded average wins per season over the past 10 normal years (2010-2019):

  1. Boise State - 11
  2. San Diego State - 9
  3. Air Force - 7
  4. Utah State - 7
  5. Fresno State - 7
  6. Nevada - 7
  7. Colorado State - 6
  8. Wyoming - 6
  9. Hawaii - 5
  10. San Jose State - 5
  11. New Mexico - 4
  12. UNLV - 4
  13. UTEP - 3

We don't need another bottom feeder.

I get the sentiment but who is a realistic add that wouldn’t be? Even NIU would probably be a .500-.600 winning percentage team most years.  The high averages of bsu and sdsu is more a testament to the depth of the conference than anything.

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