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UNLV2001

12 Team CFB playoff ?

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22 minutes ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

American has all the leverage now.  The only leverage byu has is if they want to stay independent, but even they want in on the money train.  They aren’t getting in the playoff without being in a conference and the aac is the best option.  
 

You contradicted yourself with your second statement, you know its true. Your fanbase knows it’s true- the entire front page of your forum is various threads about joining the aac.  And most importantly aresco knows it’s true.  Luckily the aac has the best access to the playoff outside the sec now, they don’t have to expand unless it gets them more money.

You only have leverage if you have something BYU wants.
There's no contradiction. I've always wanted BYU in a league. BYU admin doesn't though, so you don't have leverage unless you have something BYU wants. 

BYU could jump in your league whenever it wants, fwiw.

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39 minutes ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

There were one loss teams ahead of undefeated MW teams the last two years for stretches.  The separation is getting wider not smaller.  It’s going to take a legitimate down year from the aac and an undefeated run from the MWC, sunbelt, MAC, cusa to get in.  But at least that’s possible, unlike the current system.  

It all depends on who they beat in and out of conference.  

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7 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

Do you think it will be one G5 in the tourney only? Pretty sure that will be the case in some years but not all. Remember when both TCU and Boise State played each other in the BCS?

If a few proven G5 power teams are undefeated or only have one loss, I'm guessing they get in. Of course I'm sure Woosh will claim 2 AAC teams will get in before an undefeated Boise, BYU, or Louisiana but I live in reality.

Most years yes. And that's ok, in reality unbeaten SBC or MWC champ isn't likely to be better than SEC#3 or B1G#2.  If they just take top 12 with 6 conf champs guaranteed, I think you'll see some year when a team like Appy State or like that Western Michigan team from a few years ago makes it in addition to the American or MWC team. And maybe htey leave an unbeaten team out, but Appy State isn't going to plow through a four game tournament and win it all. Someday we'll see some upsets if this is the format going forward. Like that year when Boise and TCU were great, they'd have both been likely to have been invited in this format the year they made them play each other. Those teams could have probably won a game or two and made some noise. They were really good teams. I think the UCF team that beat Auburn could have won a game in a 12 team playoff as well. There's others that wouldn't have though, like that Western Michigan team wasn't that great, and neither was the Northern Illinois team that faced Florida State.

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25 minutes ago, Ibanez said:

...Boise State is still far and away the G5 king...

How do you arrive at that conclusion?

According to the linked article below, during the playoff era, Boise doesn't crack the top 10.

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/college-football-rankings-playoff-group-five-teams/

"Don't underestimate Joe Biden's ability to F@*k things up."

Barack Obama

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Just now, Aslowhiteguy said:

How do you arrive at that conclusion?

According to the linked article below, during the playoff era, Boise doesn't crack the top 10.

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/college-football-rankings-playoff-group-five-teams/

I'd still argue they're a top three or four brand of the G5, even if the results have gradually declined.

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1 minute ago, Jack Bauer said:

I'd still argue they're a top three or four brand of the G5, even if the results have gradually declined.

Yeah, I was a bit surprised they weren't on the list.  But the decline is real and when is the last season when you could say they were the best G5 team? 

They are definitely among the most consistently good, G5 teams, but during any given year since the playoffs began, probably not the best team any of those years. 

It's going to be interesting to see how they do with the coaching change. 

"Don't underestimate Joe Biden's ability to F@*k things up."

Barack Obama

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26 minutes ago, Aslowhiteguy said:

Yeah, I was a bit surprised they weren't on the list.  But the decline is real and when is the last season when you could say they were the best G5 team? 

They are definitely among the most consistently good, G5 teams, but during any given year since the playoffs began, probably not the best team any of those years. 

It's going to be interesting to see how they do with the coaching change. 

I'd argue in 2019 they were, except for a fluke loss to BYU. They beat BYU and they're in the Access Bowl that year. That loss paved the way for Memphis. They had a nice year that year. They beat Florida State in Florida and beat Marshall OOC and were undefeated in MWC play.

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1 hour ago, Aslowhiteguy said:

How do you arrive at that conclusion?

According to the linked article below, during the playoff era, Boise doesn't crack the top 10.

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/college-football-rankings-playoff-group-five-teams/

Entire body of work?

Since 2014 (Playoff Era):

Boise is 69-19 (.784)

Cincinatti (listed as #1) is 55-32 (.632)

UCF (listed as #2) is 56-31 (.644)

Not sure how a SJSU team that never scored more than 40 points in a game and got blown out by another G5 in a bowl game and never played a P5 team makes that list, doesn't seem very scientific.

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3 hours ago, jdgaucho said:

As an aside, I bet UH is even happier than Boise fans with the CFP expansion proposal.  If approved, Boise will have every incentive to remain here, and Hawaii needn't worry about possibly visiting potato land in all sports every two years.  

You’re right about that.  There are currently direct flights from Honolulu to 25 U.S. mainland cities but Boise isn’t one of them.  The shortest duration one-way flights from Honolulu to Boise take 8-10 hours depending on the price and stopover location.

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1 minute ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Entire body of work?

Since 2014 (Playoff Era):

Boise is 69-19 (.784)

Cincinatti (listed as #1) is 55-32 (.632)

UCF (listed as #2) is 56-31 (.644)

Not sure how a SJSU team that never scored more than 40 points in a game and got blown out by another G5 in a bowl game and never played a P5 team makes that list, doesn't seem very scientific.

I think they picked the best team(s) of each year and didn't factor in overall history.

If it were based on history, BSU is at or near the top.

"Don't underestimate Joe Biden's ability to F@*k things up."

Barack Obama

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2 minutes ago, Aslowhiteguy said:

I think they picked the best team(s) of each year and didn't factor in overall history.

Exactly.  The only other explanation for leaving BSU off the list would be the author mistakenly thinking the Broncos are a P5 team.

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16 hours ago, Ibanez said:

I'd say most Texas schools like playing on the east coast for recruiting and exposure.

I'm not sure about that. There may be more talent east of Texas but there are also more power conference schools to compete against. By my count, 44 such schools east of Texas versus just 12 to the west and the 12 to the west are located in the lowest regarded in football of the power conferences.

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4 hours ago, jdgaucho said:

Peace and harmony in the MWC.

Now about revisiting that $1.8 million annual bonus Boise is guaranteed... :ph34r:

A deal is a deal.  I don’t begrudge BSU insisting that the MWC honor the terms of their agreement.  JMHO.

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22 hours ago, AztecSU said:

I really hope you are right.

 

3 hours ago, AztecSU said:

It's not about right or wrong, I just assume the Autonomy group looks out for themselves...so I won't be shocked if they just go top 12 in the final rankings and drop the top 6 conf champs. We'll see. 

The recommendation to go to 12 isn't something this committee just thought up last week.  They've been examining different numbers and formats for quite some time, gathering input from lots of sources along the way.  I would be very surprised if this proposal is not accepted. 

The big question is how soon it will be implemented.  They've said it can't be done within the next two seasons, so the earliest it could be done is for 2023.  But the playoff contract with ESPN runs beyond that, so any re-negotiations would be exclusively with ESPN, which could limit the amounts they could earn with the new playoff format.  They could put off the change until after the current contract expires, which would allow them to receive bids on the open market.

I don't think they'll wait that long.  I think they'll implement it earlier rather than later - more than likely for 2023.  There's going to be a lot more money in this new format.  They might be able to maximize it with an open bid, but if they don't start it as soon as possible, then those are years of additional revenue they'll never get back.

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46 minutes ago, HawaiiMongoose said:

You’re right about that.  There are currently direct flights from Honolulu to 25 U.S. mainland cities but Boise isn’t one of them.  The shortest duration one-way flights from Honolulu to Boise take 8-10 hours depending on the price and stopover location.

 

Still.  Boise's other sports, especially beach and indoor volleyball, do provide value.

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I don't know if it's been said, but does this cancel the trend of 14+ team superconferences?  What if the power five see a couple splits so that there are more 8 team conferences, maybe a rebirth of the Big East for football?  

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In my view this is good for the P5, AAC, MWC, Notre Dame, and BYU. (More access to the Playoff System). It is bad for CUSA, Sunbelt, and MAC. (The AAC and MWC now have an increased competitive advantage in recruiting). It will be rare if either the AAC or MWC doesn't get one of the playoff spots.

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1 hour ago, bsu_alum9 said:

I don't know if it's been said, but does this cancel the trend of 14+ team superconferences?  What if the power five see a couple splits so that there are more 8 team conferences, maybe a rebirth of the Big East for football?  

I think it does. 

Everyone has fair access

Why would you invite someone else to your league and have to divide the pie more ways?

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