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Nevada Convert

Republican Wins Mayor Race in Border Town McAllen, TX

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McAllen, TX has an MSA population of 860,000 in which 85% are Hispanic. McAllen is a border town about 70 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. 

Trump did extremely well in these border counties some the GOP hadn’t won since 1920. The pro business Trump message resonated with these people and still is. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/republican-wins-mayoral-race-in-majority-hispanic-mcallen-texas%3f_amp=true

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The voting trends in these south Texas towns is really interesting. The populace is largely Hispanic, and has been reliably Democrat for decades, but Trump improved his numbers there from 2016 a lot, and even flipped a county. They are the reason that Texas went red in 2020. A similar Scenario is paying out in South Florida. Trump also improved his numbers with African American men over 2016. The Mantra of  the last 20 years has been that the shifting of demographics in the country will give the Democrats decades permanent power is not playing out. 

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1 hour ago, bornontheblue said:

The voting trends in these south Texas towns is really interesting. The populace is largely Hispanic, and has been reliably Democrat for decades, but Trump improved his numbers there from 2016 a lot, and even flipped a county. They are the reason that Texas went red in 2020. A similar Scenario is paying out in South Florida. Trump also improved his numbers with African American men over 2016. The Mantra of  the last 20 years has been that the shifting of demographics in the country will give the Democrats decades permanent power is not playing out. 

It's not playing out, but not for the reasons you think. 

 

The reason it's not playing out is because white people are circling the wagons around Republicans, not because of modest increases in Hispanic and Black voters. 

 

Black and Hispanic voters still overwhelmingly vote Dem. 

 

The "demographics is destiny" camp was assuming that their share of white voters would remain stable. The issue is that whites are voting Democrat less and less. 

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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29 minutes ago, youngredbullfan said:

It's not playing out, but not for the reasons you think. 

 

The reason it's not playing out is because white people are circling the wagons around Republicans, not because of modest increases in Hispanic and Black voters. 

 

Black and Hispanic voters still overwhelmingly vote Dem. 

 

The "demographics is destiny" camp was assuming that their share of white voters would remain stable. The issue is that whites are voting Democrat less and less. 

Yes, I know minorities overwhelmingly vote democrat. I never claimed otherwise. But those margins  are shrinking in certain  important states like Florida and Texas. That is why Democrats are sounding alarm bells

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/politics/democrats-2020-election.html

Also the only demographic where Donald Trump's margins shrunk compared to 2016 was white men. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/14/joe-biden-trump-black-latino-republicans

 

So you can keep your head in the sand and pretend it is not happening , but the GOP's message is gaining traction little by little among minorities. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, youngredbullfan said:

It's not playing out, but not for the reasons you think. 

 

The reason it's not playing out is because white people are circling the wagons around Republicans, not because of modest increases in Hispanic and Black voters. 

 

Black and Hispanic voters still overwhelmingly vote Dem. 

 

The "demographics is destiny" camp was assuming that their share of white voters would remain stable. The issue is that whites are voting Democrat less and less. 

I’m pretty sure you just argued against your stance with this post:

1. Modest increase in Hispanic and Black voters

2. Whites voting democrat less and less

Pretty sure that shows an overall shift towards why it’s playing out. So what you’re saying is that that more Whites, Hispanics, and Blacks are voting Republican? That’s what I took from your post. 

 

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2 hours ago, youngredbullfan said:

It's not playing out, but not for the reasons you think. 

 

The reason it's not playing out is because white people are circling the wagons around Republicans, not because of modest increases in Hispanic and Black voters. 

 

Black and Hispanic voters still overwhelmingly vote Dem. 

 

The "demographics is destiny" camp was assuming that their share of white voters would remain stable. The issue is that whites are voting Democrat less and less. 

 

1 hour ago, bornontheblue said:

Yes, I know minorities overwhelmingly vote democrat. I never claimed otherwise. But those margins  are shrinking in certain  important states like Florida and Texas. That is why Democrats are sounding alarm bells

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/politics/democrats-2020-election.html

Also the only demographic where Donald Trump's margins shrunk compared to 2016 was white men. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/14/joe-biden-trump-black-latino-republicans

 

So you can keep your head in the sand and pretend it is not happening , but the GOP's message is gaining traction little by little among minorities. 

 

 

Racial demographics are not the best way to explain the makeup of today's electorate, IMO. Increasingly, the electorate is segmenting itself along rural and urban lines rather than historical racial lines. Both parties are playing into that, which is dumb for both parties but particularly dumb for Democrats. As our system is slanted in favor of rural interests.

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35 minutes ago, NVGiant said:

 

Racial demographics are not the best way to explain the makeup of today's electorate, IMO. Increasingly, the electorate is segmenting itself along rural and urban lines rather than historical racial lines. Both parties are playing into that, which is dumb for both parties but particularly dumb for Democrats. As our system is slanted in favor of rural interests.

This is well played out in Oregon, Washington & Idaho. 

Seattle and Portland control politics in their states. Idaho is the exact opposite, political power is mostly outside of Ada county. 

 

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5 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

This is well played out in Oregon, Washington & Idaho. 

Seattle and Portland control politics in their states. Idaho is the exact opposite, political power is mostly outside of Ada county. 

 

Aren't there five or six Oregon counties that want to become part of Idaho? 

"Don't underestimate Joe Biden's ability to F@*k things up."

Barack Obama

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15 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

This is well played out in Oregon, Washington & Idaho. 

Seattle and Portland control politics in their states. Idaho is the exact opposite, political power is mostly outside of Ada county. 

 

Definitely. We're in an interesting time when a voter in Eastern Oregon identifies with rural Texas more than a fellow Oregonian who lives in Portland or Eugene. And vise versa. Voters in Portland feel a stronger connection to those in San Francisco. I think it in part can be explained by the nationalization of our politics, where national issues supersede local issues in many people's minds, even though local issues affect their day-to-day lives more.

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10 minutes ago, Aslowhiteguy said:

Aren't there five or six Oregon counties that want to become part of Idaho? 

There are small groups within a few counties, yes. Certainly hasn't come close to critical mass. But this sort of thing is par for the course. Somewhere in Austin right now there is a whiny grad student lamenting to his barista that Austin hasn't become its own state yet.

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On 6/7/2021 at 2:50 PM, KayakArmada said:

I’m pretty sure you just argued against your stance with this post:

1. Modest increase in Hispanic and Black voters

2. Whites voting democrat less and less

Pretty sure that shows an overall shift towards why it’s playing out. So what you’re saying is that that more Whites, Hispanics, and Blacks are voting Republican? That’s what I took from your post. 

 

I should've specificed, non-college educated whites are voting Democrat less and less. 

 

It's being offset by college-educated whites increasingly turning Dem.

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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On 6/7/2021 at 11:06 AM, bornontheblue said:

Yes, I know minorities overwhelmingly vote democrat. I never claimed otherwise. But those margins  are shrinking in certain  important states like Florida and Texas. That is why Democrats are sounding alarm bells

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/politics/democrats-2020-election.html

Also the only demographic where Donald Trump's margins shrunk compared to 2016 was white men. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/14/joe-biden-trump-black-latino-republicans

 

So you can keep your head in the sand and pretend it is not happening , but the GOP's message is gaining traction little by little among minorities. 

 

 

Everything is cyclical.  In the last 2 national elections Democrats took back the House, Senate, and WH.  In the 2022 midterms,  Republicans will most likely take back the House.  Just 4 short years ago Trump had it made with a Republican controlled Congress and it all fell apart that quickly.  There is no way his message long term, more specifically his type of rhetoric, is going to grow the party with minorities.  Short term, i suppose a percentage here or there can be interpreted as little by little.  By the way, El Paso had a Republican governor and the county votes overwhelmingly Democratic in national elections.  El Paso is 700k+ sitting right on the border as well with Juarez.  

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11 minutes ago, alum93 said:

Everything is cyclical.  In the last 2 national elections Democrats took back the House, Senate, and WH.  In the 2022 midterms,  Republicans will most likely take back the House.  Just 4 short years ago Trump had it made with a Republican controlled Congress and it all fell apart that quickly.  There is no way his message long term, more specifically his type of rhetoric, is going to grow the party with minorities.  Short term, i suppose a percentage here or there can be interpreted as little by little.  By the way, El Paso had a Republican governor and the county votes overwhelmingly Democratic in national elections.  El Paso is 700k+ sitting right on the border as well with Juarez.  

I've often said El Paso feels like a different state but had no idea they actually had their own governor!

 

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1 minute ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I've often said El Paso feels like a different state but had no idea they actually had their own governor!

 

Ha...  It certainly felt that way at times.  Good catch.  Mayor....   

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39 minutes ago, alum93 said:

Everything is cyclical.  In the last 2 national elections Democrats took back the House, Senate, and WH.  In the 2022 midterms,  Republicans will most likely take back the House.  Just 4 short years ago Trump had it made with a Republican controlled Congress and it all fell apart that quickly.  There is no way his message long term, more specifically his type of rhetoric, is going to grow the party with minorities.  Short term, i suppose a percentage here or there can be interpreted as little by little.  By the way, El Paso had a Republican governor and the county votes overwhelmingly Democratic in national elections.  El Paso is 700k+ sitting right on the border as well with Juarez.  

We will see. However Trump is the first GOP candidate in a long time to improve numbers with minorities.  It is scaring thew hell out of Democrats right now, see the article I posted above.  These improvements have turned Florida from a toss up to leans Republican, and dashed the Democrats hopes at an upset victory in Texas. 

 

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8 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

We will see. However Trump is the first GOP candidate in a long time to improve numbers with minorities.  It is scaring thew hell out of Democrats right now, see the article I posted above.  These improvements have turned Florida from a toss up to leans Republican, and dashed the Democrats hopes at an upset victory in Texas. 

 

The guy literally just lost an election by 8M votes.  I would think that Democrats are crossing their fingers that he runs again.  The margin will be bigger next time.  I do think Republicans can make gains with minorities, but it just won't be with a guy that literally makes jokes about shooting Mexicans and is obsessed with a magical wall.  Plus his handling of multiple issues with racial division, from Charlottesville to the protests was just atrocious.  Other candidates with a R in front can and should do better.  

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Just now, alum93 said:

The guy literally just lost an election by 8M votes.  I would think that Democrats are crossing their fingers that he runs again.  The margin will be bigger next time.  

Biden won fair that is true, largely because the the middle class older white vote shifted slightly back to the Democrats in multiple key states.  Trump also got votes from minorities that the GOP hasn't seen in decades, that is why Florida is redder, and Texas stayed red despite the GOP losing suburban white votes in major Texas suburbs. There are many, many aspects to the electorate friend. 

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On 6/7/2021 at 9:54 AM, bornontheblue said:

The voting trends in these south Texas towns is really interesting. The populace is largely Hispanic, and has been reliably Democrat for decades, but Trump improved his numbers there from 2016 a lot, and even flipped a county. They are the reason that Texas went red in 2020. A similar Scenario is paying out in South Florida. Trump also improved his numbers with African American men over 2016. The Mantra of  the last 20 years has been that the shifting of demographics in the country will give the Democrats decades permanent power is not playing out. 

As things get better in this country, as we get better with things like racism and lgbt rights, have a path to citizenships for dreamers etc, you'll start to see more minorities flip R.  

Right now, certain minorities are a monolithic voting bloc as a result of shared life experiences.  One way you know things are getting better is that they start to not be monolithic voting blocks.

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