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bornontheblue

Inflation

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Inflation surged by the largest amount in more than 13 years caused by an overly stimulated economy, and supply chain issues which are making it impossible to meet consumer demands. If Biden's multi trillion dollar infrastructure plan gets through it will be throwing gasoline on the fire. If this continues the fed will be forced to raise interest rates and throw the economy into a slowdown or a recession. 

It will be like the 1970's stagflation all over again, gas lines and all. Expect disco to be popular with the kids again. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-april-2021-11620781266?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

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I’d rather have them do what they did then be too cautious and end up not spending enough money. If inflation ends up being an issue, I doubt we will be alone as a country. 

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What is playing the bigger part in current inflation... increase in money supply? Or supply curve shifting to the left because of supply chain issues?

I guess I can understand why lumber has become a luxury good, but dammit why is milk more expensive? Cows can't get the 'rona!!

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3 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

I’d rather have them do what they did then be too cautious and end up not spending enough money. If inflation ends up being an issue, I doubt we will be alone as a country. 

The problem is though that if inflation becomes a runaway train like it was in the 70's the Fed has to take Draconian measures to reign it back in. Back in the early 80's inflation was above 10% and interest rates were above 20%. The recession of 82 was probably the worst one since the great depression. Yes, worse than the one in 08. 

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Red flag warning for sure. We’ve noticed a surge in grocery prices. Saw on the news there aren’t enough truckers to deliver goods to market. Seems weird since truckers for the most part work solo and shouldn’t have been affected by Covid. They mentioned a lot of trucking schools shut down because of Covid. 

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Read that used car prices spiking account for a huge component of this - they've spiked because semiconductor supply chain issues have tanked the supply of new cars.   Ripple effects from asinine Just In Time production chains not adjusting to post-covid economic conditions fast enough. 

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14 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

The problem is though that if inflation becomes a runaway train like it was in the 70's the Fed has to take Draconian measures to reign it back in. Back in the early 80's inflation was above 10% and interest rates were above 20%. The recession of 82 was probably the worst one since the great depression. Yes, worse than the one in 08. 

Yea, just have to wait and see what happens. 

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31 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

Inflation surged by the largest amount in more than 13 years caused by an overly stimulated economy, and supply chain issues which are making it impossible to meet consumer demands. If Biden's multi trillion dollar infrastructure plan gets through it will be throwing gasoline on the fire. If this continues the fed will be forced to raise interest rates and throw the economy into a slowdown or a recession. 

It will be like the 1970's stagflation all over again, gas lines and all. Expect disco to be popular with the kids again. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-april-2021-11620781266?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

I don't see a true shortage in actual gas.  This is a short term issue in regards to that.  An overly robust economy is what happens when 3 or 4 checks go into the American's hands and they start spending.  That part will also peter out.  The continued creation of money is the problem.  Spending needs to be cut not grown.

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6 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

 Saw on the news there aren’t enough truckers to deliver goods to market. 

Anytime you see something like this you gotta take it with a grain of salt, because the pandemic and temporary superdole has caused a huge reshuffle in how the labor force views and approaches employment, and a lot of the news stories are basically Chamber of Commerce press releases begging Biden to end it so they don't have to actually raise pay across the board.   The seething restaurant owners who can't find line cooks to pay 9 dollars an hour can blame unemployment benefits in part, but a lot of the service industry labor force has left the sector entirely for other industries.  I know numerous people in my general age bracket who worked retail/restaurant, reassessed things while on unemployment, and have moved to or started training for more technical professions. 

Trucking isn't exactly apples to oranges but the same still applies - it's not a particularly cushy job. 

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Just now, Rofl_copter_dos said:

Anytime you see something like this you gotta take it with a grain of salt, because the pandemic and temporary superdole has caused a huge reshuffle in how the labor force views and approaches employment, and a lot of the news stories are basically Chamber of Commerce press releases begging Biden to end it so they don't have to actually raise pay across the board.   The seething restaurant owners who can't find line cooks to pay 9 dollars an hour can blame unemployment benefits in part, but a lot of the service industry labor force has left the sector entirely for other industries.  I know numerous people in my general age bracket who worked retail/restaurant, reassessed things while on unemployment, and have moved to or started training for more technical professions. 

Trucking isn't exactly apples to oranges but the same still applies - it's not a particularly cushy job. 

A lot of local folks I knew who were waitstaff did just that.  They are much happier now, so they aren't going back.  It's a mix of UI and dogshit conditions for dogshit pay.  I can only imagine fast food workers.  I hope those go back to first jobs for HS students like it used to be.

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Have you people seriously not taken an economics class?  How the hell do you have inflation when wages are stagnant?  Normally the biggest cause of inflation is wages increases.  We haven't had inflation since the 70s because workers have had their backs broken since then and all the money goes to the CEOs....of course there is no inflation.

The ENTIRE reason you have any upward pressure on prices right now is because factories have been hobbled and shut down for over a year!  Steel and lumber prices are going crazy because there is a limited supply of lumber and so prices are going up hugely on these types of goods.  How the hell do you fix this by cutting back on stimulus?  Talk about ass backwards thinking.  

The way to cure this type of inflation is to make sure people have enough money to bid up the prices of these manufactured goods and all the slack in the supply chain will be cured and used to produce goods. 

If we were at full employment and workers were making a nice wage then you may have true inflation.  This is a temporary blip and mark my words that these high prices are going to cause a glut of these same products and a price crash in about 6 months.  

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1 minute ago, Akkula said:

Have you people seriously not taken an economics class?  How the hell do you have inflation when wages are stagnant?  Normally the biggest cause of inflation is wages increases.  We haven't had inflation since the 70s because workers have had their backs broken since then and all the money goes to the CEOs....of course there is no inflation.

The ENTIRE reason you have any upward pressure on prices right now is because factories have been hobbled and shut down for over a year!  Steel and lumber prices are going crazy because there is a limited supply of lumber and so prices are going up hugely on these types of goods.  How the hell do you fix this by cutting back on stimulus?  Talk about ass backwards thinking.  

The way to cure this type of inflation is to make sure people have enough money to bid up the prices of these manufactured goods and all the slack in the supply chain will be cured and used to produce goods. 

If we were at full employment and workers were making a nice wage then you may have true inflation.  This is a temporary blip and mark my words that these high prices are going to cause a glut of these same products and a price crash in about 6 months.  

You are a complete fool, and you continue to repeatedly display that in this public forum. Have you read about the 70's when unemployment was above 10% and inflation was above 10% , and interest rates were above 20%. Read a book man! 

The problem is not slack in the supply chain you fool! That is the exact backwards way of looking at the problem. If there was too much slack in the supply chain that would be putting downward pressure on prices. 

 

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Just now, East Coast Aztec said:

A lot of local folks I knew who were waitstaff did just that.  They are much happier now, so they aren't going back.  It's a mix of UI and dogshit conditions for dogshit pay.  I can only imagine fast food workers.  I hope those go back to first jobs for HS students like it used to be.

yes, exactly.  It's been a miserable 14 months for people in the service sector.   Any worker at a place that stayed open during the height of the pandemic had to deal with the worst customer clientele they've ever interacted with.   Even if unemployment benefits cut out entirely today a good chunk have stockpiled some extra cash or cut expensive and moved back in with family and are just done dealing with unruly anti-mask goons. 

 

1 minute ago, bornontheblue said:

The problem is not slack in the supply chain you fool! That is the exact backwards way of looking at the problem. If there was too much slack in the supply chain that would be putting downward pressure on prices. 

 

correct! Now there's shortages of all sorts of stuff as demand returns to normal and the chain hasn't snapped back as well!

https://prospect.org/economy/real-shortages-in-the-us-economy/

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12 minutes ago, Rofl_copter_dos said:

Read that used car prices spiking account for a huge component of this - they've spiked because semiconductor supply chain issues have tanked the supply of new cars.   Ripple effects from asinine Just In Time production chains not adjusting to post-covid economic conditions fast enough. 

Another reason why computer GPU's are so hard to get a hold of and scalpers are charging 3-4x the amount of their original price. An NVIDIA 3080 card that was originally priced at $600 is now going for over $2k. Sony came out and said the PS5 shortage will drag on well into 2022.   

0918_FootballVBoise(Weir)6081.jpg.91934a8a511e3532b39599f1988bbacb.jpg

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4 minutes ago, ridgeview2 said:

Another reason why computer GPU's are so hard to get a hold of and scalpers are charging 3-4x the amount of their original price. An NVIDIA 3080 card that was originally priced at $600 is now going for over $2k. Sony came out and said the PS5 shortage will drag on well into 2022.   

Eh the computer GPU shortage is due to the cryptocurrency explosion more than anything.   Millionaire bitcoin miners in China are buying up supply the instant it hits the chain and Nvidia +++++ed up massively about a year ago when they accidentally publicly released an internal driver enabling full performance in crypto mining for cards that were supposed to be gimped in that arena.   Now that genie is never going back into the bottle until they release a whole new architecture.  It's a really bad situation, i'm thankful i got my 2060 before things went nuts.

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56 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

Inflation surged by the largest amount in more than 13 years caused by an overly stimulated economy, and supply chain issues which are making it impossible to meet consumer demands. If Biden's multi trillion dollar infrastructure plan gets through it will be throwing gasoline on the fire. If this continues the fed will be forced to raise interest rates and throw the economy into a slowdown or a recession. 

It will be like the 1970's stagflation all over again, gas lines and all. Expect disco to be popular with the kids again. 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-consumer-price-index-april-2021-11620781266?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

in runescape when this happens they release a new money sink skill :hmmm:

make cocaine popular again?

Remember that every argument you have with someone on MWCboard is actually the continuation of a different argument they had with someone else also on MWCboard. 

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