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bornontheblue

Boise area housing Prices

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39 minutes ago, utenation said:

With all major lenders, that appraisal still has to go through a review process for accuracy.  I think with all the regulation of the industry, you don't see many purchase prices clear out in left field compared to appraised value.  Realtors are much better today and their education requirements and regulation is much better than in 2008.

Yup, each appraisal has a grade on it like a research paper. 
 

It’s fcking nuts what it takes to become an appraiser today, thank God we have our own.  There are new regulations that allow drive by appraisals for rate term refi below a certain LTV.  

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52 minutes ago, utenation said:

Here's a decent article on what I described.  And yes, I knew of several appraisers that were banned by the state's Division of Real Estate, black listed and faced criminal charges along with the rest of the fraud cowboys.

https://publicintegrity.org/environment/the-appraisal-bubble/

Where I used to live in east WA, I noticed immediately that houses listed as 5 bedroom were in reality only 2 or 3 (missing egress, closets, etc).  Appraisers never called it out and the comps were for 5 bedroom houses.  Realty agents also wouldn't call it out, and left a bloated market.  Housing becoming a portfolio item has created a broken system, and everyone from the appraisers, to the lenders, to the sellers are all smitten with it.  But to hell with a buyer who needs an actual place to live.  "+++++ you, pay me", as the late Henry Hill said

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1 minute ago, tailingpermit said:

Yup, each appraisal has a grade on it like a research paper. 
 

It’s fcking nuts what it takes to become an appraiser today, thank God we have our own.  There are new regulations that allow drive by appraisals for rate term refi below a certain LTV.  

I get appraisal waivers on about 50% of my refis. Agency database and county records drive it along with good credit and good DTI.

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4 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Where I used to live in east WA, I noticed immediately that houses listed as 5 bedroom were in reality only 2 or 3 (missing egress, closets, etc).  Appraisers never called it out and the comps were for 5 bedroom houses.  Realty agents also wouldn't call it out, and left a bloated market.  Housing becoming a portfolio item has created a broken system, and everyone from the appraisers, to the lenders, to the sellers are all smitten with it.  But to hell with a buyer who needs an actual place to live.  "+++++ you, pay me", as the late Henry Hill said

If 1/5 homes on average in the US are purchased for this purpose you can imagine that in some hotter markets that ratio is worse...greater than 20% of demand and growing. In some ways this feels like a different version of what's happening with car ownership. 

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13 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Where I used to live in east WA, I noticed immediately that houses listed as 5 bedroom were in reality only 2 or 3 (missing egress, closets, etc).  Appraisers never called it out and the comps were for 5 bedroom houses.  Realty agents also wouldn't call it out, and left a bloated market.  Housing becoming a portfolio item has created a broken system, and everyone from the appraisers, to the lenders, to the sellers are all smitten with it.  But to hell with a buyer who needs an actual place to live.  "+++++ you, pay me", as the late Henry Hill said

That still happens today, especially in areas that have basements.  Realtors try to count finished rooms below grade as bedrooms, but it doesn’t get past our appraisers.  
 

I still have a deep disliking for mortgage brokers, don’t have any skin in the game and therefor don’t care about your financial well being.   

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7 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

If 1/5 homes on average in the US are purchased for this purpose you can imagine that in some hotter markets that ratio is worse...greater than 20% of demand and growing. In some ways this feels like a different version of what's happening with car ownership. 

Even if 20% were for portfolio, I wouldn't have a problem, but when there are inaccuracies or the professionals are looking the other way to increase the values to make even more money, it becomes problematic.  There is supply and demand, and then there is finding way of inflating the price point on a necessity good.

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1 minute ago, tailingpermit said:

That still happens today, especially in areas that have basements.  Realtors try to count finished rooms below grade as bedrooms, but it doesn’t get past our appraisers.  
 

I still have a deep disliking for mortgage brokers, don’t have any skin in the game and therefor don’t care about your financial well being.   

I wasn't talking about the past.  I just don't live in east WA anymore, but that was just a few months ago.  It's still the way over there, and probably a lot more places, I just can't say that I have seen it since I am not in the market right now.

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10 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Even if 20% were for portfolio, I wouldn't have a problem, but when there are inaccuracies or the professionals are looking the other way to increase the values to make even more money, it becomes problematic.  There is supply and demand, and then there is finding way of inflating the price point on a necessity good.

But the lender is on the hook for that loan if it defaults, the fact is if they’re sticking the loan in their back pocket they make their own rules - not Fannie/Freddie or Ginnie.  

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3 hours ago, bornontheblue said:

Hey everybody thinks of Denmark and Sweden when it comes to socialism. They never think of East Germany or Poland in the 60's and 70's. 

Next he will say we  all have to give up our nice cars and get on a 5 year waiting list to buy a Lada

220px-1980_-_VAZ_2101.JPG

People don't think of East Germany or Poland in the '80s because those were not socialist but COMMUNIST countries in which the sole political party in the country ran the government and the government ran the entire economy. Denmark and Sweden, in contrast, do not have a single party system and although taxes are high, there is considerable private industry.

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2 minutes ago, tailingpermit said:

But the lender is on the hook for that loan if it defaults, the fact is if they’re sticking the loan in their back pocket they make their own rules - not Fannie/Freddie or Ginnie.  

The absence of predatory loans have merely reduced the risk on that end, plus I don't recall the lenders not being able to sell off the loans still.  Just that they can't package them the same to insert high risk ones into a low risk blend.  Could be wrong, but I just haven't seen that specific provision.  This seems to more affect folks who can truly afford a mortgage by having them pay more for less.

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2 hours ago, #1Stunner said:

INFLATION

Here it comes folks...

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-biggest-inflation-scare-in-40-years-is-coming-what-stock-market-investors-need-to-know-11617846712

Market Extra

The biggest ‘inflation scare’ in 40 years is coming — what stock-market investors need to know

Good article. Many, many stocks are way overvalued today. Everything in my 401K is in conservative mutual funds so I should be OK when things go way south. However, those who have invested their future in speculative get-rich-quick stuff are going to be crying in their beer in the not too distant future.

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7 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

People don't think of East Germany or Poland in the '80s because those were not socialist but COMMUNIST countries in which the sole political party in the country ran the government and the government ran the entire economy. Denmark and Sweden, in contrast, do not have a single party system and although taxes are high, there is considerable private industry.

Sorry, I forgot Denmark and Sweden were the good communists not the bad ones like Poland and East Germany, North Korea etc.

What color of Lada are you going to get when your 5 year wait is up? 

 

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32 minutes ago, tailingpermit said:

I still have a deep disliking for mortgage brokers, don’t have any skin in the game and therefor don’t care about your financial well being.   

You noticed I said Banks and major lenders in my posts? There 's still some stuff that slips through the cracks with Brokers. Usually, they just have to pass state tests and get some continuing education.  I have a ton of mortgage and bank compliance to adhere to..  Brokers usually don't have easy access to jumbo funds unless they go wholesale through bigger banks. A lot of banks have tightened their belts with wholesale lending. 

 

I know some solid brokers out there but I think banks are more stable. 

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16 minutes ago, tailingpermit said:

But the lender is on the hook for that loan if it defaults, the fact is if they’re sticking the loan in their back pocket they make their own rules - not Fannie/Freddie or Ginnie.  

Hell, our Portfolio guidelines are 10 X worse than agency.  We are very conservative though.

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5 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

Good article. Many, many stocks are way overvalued today. Everything in my 401K is in conservative mutual funds so I should be OK when things go way south. However, those who have invested their future in speculative get-rich-quick stuff are going to be crying in their beer in the not too distant future.

I am in timing mode right now.  But my portfolio is well-blended with a lot of long haul, so I won't lose my entire ass.

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4 minutes ago, bornontheblue said:

Sorry, I forgot Denmark and Sweden were the good communists not the bad ones like Poland and East Germany, North Korea etc.

What color of Lada are you going to get when your 5 year wait is up? 

 

Is Denmark and Sweden communist?  I thought they were socialist?

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20 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

The absence of predatory loans have merely reduced the risk on that end, plus I don't recall the lenders not being able to sell off the loans still.  Just that they can't package them the same to insert high risk ones into a low risk blend.  Could be wrong, but I just haven't seen that specific provision.  This seems to more affect folks who can truly afford a mortgage by having them pay more for less.

Sure, they can sell them off to a servicer and then the servicer will package them as mortgage backed securities to Fannie/Freddie or Ginnie.  But those are conforming loans, they meet federal guidelines.  Unless I’m understanding you wrong you were speaking of portfolio loans, that’s where the lender sticks the loan in their back pocket for the duration, they make their own rules in that case.  If they don’t want to verify someone’s income, assets or down payment that is their prerogative.  
 

If a conforming loan defaults the quasi government entity (example Fannie) will investigate the loan.  This is why underwriters are very much like lawyers for lenders.  If found at fault they will make you buy back the loan, if that happens enough times the lender will face increasing audits and possible blacklisting.  
 

Portfolio loan the lender is simply losing out on their own money, they take all the risk and therefor again put in place their own rules.  

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Just now, tailingpermit said:

Sure, they can sell them off to a servicer and then the servicer will package them as mortgage backed securities to Fannie/Freddie or Ginnie.  But those are conforming loans, they meet federal guidelines.  Unless I’m understanding you wrong you were speaking of portfolio loans, that’s where the lender sticks the loan in their back pocket for the duration, they make their own rules in that case.  If they don’t want to verify someone’s income, assets or down payment that is their prerogative.  
 

If a conforming loan defaults the quasi government entity (example Fannie) will investigate the loan.  This is why underwriters are very much like lawyers for lenders.  If found at fault they will make you buy back the loan, if that happens enough times the lender will face increasing audits and possible blacklisting.  
 

Portfolio loan the lender is simply losing out on their own money, they take all the risk and therefor again put in place their own rules.  

I mean portfolio as in the tangible asset of real estate.  Owning a bunch of assets or REITS for operating income.  Sorry for any confusion.

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16 minutes ago, utenation said:

Hell, our Portfolio guidelines are 10 X worse than agency.  We are very conservative though.

The only portfolio loan we use is to simply bridge the gap, say a person doesn’t qualify for a Conv, FHA or VA loan - it’s a short term solution.  Min 20% down, 2/6 ARM, 4 points over prime.  The idea is how bad do you want to get into the home instead of waiting to conform.

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