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OT - National Championship: Gonzaga vs Baylor

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14 hours ago, happycamper said:

I mean... 3 1 seeds in 4 years,  2 final games appearances. 

Based on recent history,  plenty of opportunities 

Yup.

THE problem for Gonzaga is not playing in a power conference. They're a rich man's version of SDSU. Get 2-3 impressive OOC wins before entering the conference season then play well enough to get into the NCAAs most of the time (all of the time if it's Gonzaga) but then because their conference opponents are so significantly inferior to what they play in the post-season, rarely manage to play up to their seeding in the dance.

Mark Few is a very bright guy and has to be wondering the same so if with the uptick in recruiting he's still unable to win a NC in the next few years, I have to believe he'll consider leaving.

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13 hours ago, ph90702 said:

I think Gonzaga will eventually break through, but they need to change their team composition a little bit.  They aren’t the most athletic team, and Baylor was not a good matchup for them

Nor was 10-loss UCLA which early in the season couldn't even beat the Aztecs. Without Suggs the Zags would have lost to UCLA by double digits too.

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14 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

Yup.

THE problem for Gonzaga is not playing in a power conference. They're a rich man's version of SDSU. Get 2-3 impressive OOC wins before entering the conference season then play well enough to get into the NCAAs most of the time (all of the time if it's Gonzaga) but then because their conference opponents are so significantly inferior to what they play in the post-season, rarely manage to play up to their seeding in the dance.

Mark Few is a very bright guy and has to be wondering the same so if with the uptick in recruiting he's still unable to win a NC in the next few years, I have to believe he'll consider leaving.

Not sure what your idea of impressive wins is.  But here were the bigger games they played outside of WCC before losing to Baylor in the national championship game.  They've played in 2 national championship games in 3 years.  That is the definition of playing to your seeding.  Only one team can cut down the nets, that doesn't mean the team that lost wasn't awesome.  Far from it.  Some of the best teams in college basketball didn't win the championship because they simply played a bad few minutes or the other team got hot.  To make the NCAA runs Gonzaga has over the last 20 years is about as good as it gets without winning the final game.  I'm not a personal fan of Gonzaga, it's not the team i cheer for.  But i am a little surprised at the amount of comments on a MWC board minimizing what Gonzaga has done.  I can see ACC, BiG, or SEC fans doing it.  But most fans on here play close attention to team out west.  I guess some really don't think they were that impressive.  Opinions vary.  I thought they were awesome in the games i watched,  with the exception of a smoking hot Baylor team beating them.  The number 1 and 2 teams played for it all.  One of them had to lose.  

Gonzaga 102 Kansas 90

Gonzaga 90 Auburn 67

Gonzaga 87 West Virginia 82

Gonzaga 98 Virginia 75

Gonzaga 87 Oklahoma 71

Gonzaga 83 Creighton 65

Gonzaga 85 USC 66

Gonzaga 94 UCLA 90

 

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1 hour ago, Pelado said:

Kispert was at 44%.  Ayayi shot 38.9%.  Aaron Cook was at 35%.  Nobody else who averaged 10+ minutes was above 35%.  Suggs - 33.7%, Nembhard - 32.3%.

Overall, Gonzaga was tied with Ohio State for team 3-point shooting at 59th (out of 347 teams), shooting 36.5% during the regular season.

The 2017 team averaged 38.2% from three (47th out of 351 teams).  Guys who averaged 10+ minutes and shot better than 35% from 3:

Killian Tillie - 47.8%

Zach Collins - 47.6%

Johnathan Williams - 40%

Josh Perkins - 39.9%

Jordan Mathews - 39.2%

Silas Melson - 39.1%

Nigel Williams-Goss - 36.8%

In fairness, the 3-point line was a little closer in 2017 than in 2021.  Most teams in the country saw their 3-point shooting percentages decrease a bit when that change was implemented.  That said, the numbers indicate the 2017 team had more capable shooters from distance than the 2021 team.

Anyone who watched that team knew it was melson and Matthews as the shooters. Tillie was great player,  but his primary purpose in 2017 was rebounding and to save fouls from Collins and karnowski. Collins averaged half a shot a game.  Williams averaged 1. That team had 2_3 threats in the floor,  this year had 3 and usually 4.

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4 minutes ago, alum93 said:

Not sure what your idea of impressive wins is.  But here were the bigger games they played outside of WCC before losing to Baylor in the national championship game.  They've played in 2 national championship games in 3 years.  That is the definition of playing to your seeding.  Only one team can cut down the nets, that doesn't mean the team that lost wasn't awesome.  Far from it.

Gonzaga 102 Kansas 90

Gonzaga 90 Auburn 67

Gonzaga 87 West Virginia 82

Gonzaga 98 Virginia 75

Gonzaga 87 Oklahoma 71

Gonzaga 83 Creighton 65

Gonzaga 85 USC 66

Gonzaga 94 UCLA 90

The blowout of USC was indeed impressive. However, IIRC, both Kansas and Virginia had COVID problems and it wasn't even clear they would participate in the NCAAs this year. Creighton looked really, really bad in beating UCSB. Great shooting team but couldn't hit the boards to save their lives as exemplied by the fact their opponents out-rebounded them on the season going into the NCAAs. I didn't see the Zags-Mountaineers game but WVU's loss to Syracuse made clear WVU wasn't exactly the world's most athletic team.

Listen, I'd love to see Gonzaga win it all. However, this was the year I thought they would yet they squeeked by UCLA by the skin of their team and were never in the game versus Baylor. Among other teams, UNLV's Augmon, Grandma, et al. teams would have obliterated this Gonzaga squad.

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6 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

The blowout of USC was indeed impressive. However, IIRC, both Kansas and Virginia had COVID problems and it wasn't even clear they would participate in the NCAAs this year. Creighton looked really, really bad in beating UCSB. Great shooting team but couldn't hit the boards to save their lives as exemplied by the fact their opponents out-rebounded them on the season going into the NCAAs. I didn't see the Zags-Mountaineers game but WVU's loss to Syracuse made clear WVU wasn't exactly the world's most athletic team.

Listen, I'd love to see Gonzaga win it all. However, this was the year I thought they would yet they squeeked by UCLA by the skin of their team and were never in the game versus Baylor. Among other teams, UNLV's Augmon, Grandma, et al. teams would have obliterated this Gonzaga squad.

And yet UNLV lost to Duke.  A young Duke squad that they had easily beat the year before.  It happens.  If you judge them by that one game, they were just another team from the Big West that hardly played anyone.  If you go back and look at the whole resume, it was clear they were a monster team.  Gonzaga was awesome whether they lost in the second or third round or national championship game.  I don't go off the last game of the year, because only one team ends without a loss, the national champion.  Gonzaga looked like they had tired legs, but it doesn't matter.  Baylor took it to them and their top scorer started off 5/5 from three.  They built a lead and never looked back.  The handful of Gonzaga games i watched this year they looked like a top 5 team.  Once you get to that level, it's just splitting hairs in terms of comparing great teams.  If Baylor was 1A this year,  Gonzaga was 1B.  Nothing wrong with that.  And UCLA played out of their minds and still lost.  Great teams find a way to win, until they don't...  But i get the point you are trying to make.  It was other posts like saying they were overrated and overhyped that i found odd.  But we all see the games differently.  

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1 hour ago, 818SUDSFan said:

Yup.

THE problem for Gonzaga is not playing in a power conference. They're a rich man's version of SDSU. Get 2-3 impressive OOC wins before entering the conference season then play well enough to get into the NCAAs most of the time (all of the time if it's Gonzaga) but then because their conference opponents are so significantly inferior to what they play in the post-season, rarely manage to play up to their seeding in the dance.

Mark Few is a very bright guy and has to be wondering the same so if with the uptick in recruiting he's still unable to win a NC in the next few years, I have to believe he'll consider leaving.

In what way has Gonzaga not managed to play up to their seeding?  Like most teams that make it into the tournament most every year, they have definitely been upset before.  Since 2000, they have qualified for the tournament every season but have only lost in the first round three times - seeded as a 6, 10, and 7.  But if you look at their postseason record on the whole, it's hard to make the argument that they have underperformed.  Assuming the expected wins data from this post are accurate, Gonzaga has outperformed their seed under Mark Few.  Since the 2000 tournament, their expected wins would be 32.78 but they have actually won 36 games.

Over the last 15 seasons, their expected wins were 23.89, but they actually won 27.

Over the last 10 seasons, their expected wins were 19.52, but they actually won 23.

Over the last 5 seasons, their expected wins were 11.58, but they actually won 15.

Again, since 2000, they have made it to the second weekend 10 times, including each of the last 6 tournaments.  And they've made it to the Final Four twice, advancing to the title game both times.

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I was reading before the tournament that only twice in the last 20 years has the number 1 overall seed won the National Championship.  It just isn't that easy.  UNLV had monster teams in 90 and 91 and only won once.  In fact they were the favorite in the 87 Final Four too and got bounced by eventual champion Indiana.  On the eye test, those UNLV teams looked incredible.  On the results ledger, Duke's back to back titles in 91 and 92, with five straight Final Four appearances, are more impressive.  Give Gonzage their due because they deserve it.  It was a great team that ran into a better team.

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43 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

13 million watched last night, down 7 million from 2019

Sports viewing is down everywhere. 

Up 13 million from 2020

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8 hours ago, Pelado said:

In what way has Gonzaga not managed to play up to their seeding?  Like most teams that make it into the tournament most every year, they have definitely been upset before.  Since 2000, they have qualified for the tournament every season but have only lost in the first round three times - seeded as a 6, 10, and 7.  But if you look at their postseason record on the whole, it's hard to make the argument that they have underperformed.  Assuming the expected wins data from this post are accurate, Gonzaga has outperformed their seed under Mark Few.  Since the 2000 tournament, their expected wins would be 32.78 but they have actually won 36 games.

Over the last 15 seasons, their expected wins were 23.89, but they actually won 27.

Over the last 10 seasons, their expected wins were 19.52, but they actually won 23.

Over the last 5 seasons, their expected wins were 11.58, but they actually won 15.

Again, since 2000, they have made it to the second weekend 10 times, including each of the last 6 tournaments.  And they've made it to the Final Four twice, advancing to the title game both times.

listened to Mad Dog radio today with Chris Russo and as expected they were skewering Gonzaga today. They pointed out that the Zags have underperformed (based on their seeding) 14 of the last 17 years. And one of those years was when Gonzaga seeded 9th beat an 8th seed.

 

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6 hours ago, Del Scorcho said:

13 million watched last night, down 7 million from 2019

Sports viewing is down everywhere. 

That surprises me.. I figured the matchup would be big time. 

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13 hours ago, Del Scorcho said:

listened to Mad Dog radio today with Chris Russo and as expected they were skewering Gonzaga today. They pointed out that the Zags have underperformed (based on their seeding) 14 of the last 17 years. And one of those years was when Gonzaga seeded 9th beat an 8th seed.

 

since 2005? lol

over perforrmed - 2011, 2016

to seed - 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015,  2018

under performed - 2005, 2013, 2019

made it to the title game as a 1 seed- 2017, 2021 (I would call that over-performing)

Russo is bad at math

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2 minutes ago, happycamper said:

since 2005? lol

over perforrmed - 2011, 2016

to seed - 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015,  2018

under performed - 2005, 2013, 2019

made it to the title game as a 1 seed- 2017, 2021 (I would call that over-performing)

Russo is bad at math

he was quoting Bill Zimmerman who did some research/analysis. I looked on the net and couldn't locate it?

I think the issue with looking at it this way is seeding is inherently flawed and if you're a #1 seed and you make it to the elite 8, but not the final four that's under performing.  I don't completely agree with that.  I suspect if you looked at every program across the country, there are very few that have over performed based on their seed. For every Duke national championship there are 3 years where they under performed. 

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14 hours ago, utenation said:

That surprises me.. I figured the matchup would be big time. 

Though the teams were exciting, the names aren't big time.  Plus folks (myself included) just couldn't get into pretty much any sports this year.  Empty stadiums and piped in noise just took my interest out.  I watched the highlights because I forgot to record the game and went to the gym instead of watched.  Would not have been the case previous years.  Probably won't be the case next year.

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It could be as simple as the fact that there was zero Eastern presence at the Final Four. No team from the other side of the Mississippi made the Final Four and that area represents well over half of all televisions. 

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56 minutes ago, masterfrog said:

It could be as simple as the fact that there was zero Eastern presence at the Final Four. No team from the other side of the Mississippi made the Final Four and that area represents well over half of all televisions. 

And it started at 9:30 pm eastern. Not many gonna stay up until midnight on a school night for that matchup.

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1 hour ago, bsu_alum9 said:

And it started at 9:30 pm eastern. Not many gonna stay up until midnight on a school night for that matchup.

It is a bummer that they can't play the final four games on Friday night, and the title game on Sunday.

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