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thedude15

Regular season MW champ scenarios

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So looks like (if no make up games). 

BSU wins the MW if they go 2-0 @ SDSU OR go 1-1 and CSU also goes 1-1/0-2 vs Air Force. BSU, without makeup games, does not have any "co champ" scenario. 

SDSU wins the MW if they go 2-0 vs BSU and CSU also goes 1-1/0-2 vs Air Force. SDSU is co champs if they go 2-0 vs BSU and CSU goes 2-0 vs Air Force. 

CSU wins the MW if they go 2-0 vs Air Force, BSU/SDSU spilt their series. CSU is co champs if they go 2-0 vs Air Force and SDSU goes 2-0 vs BSU.

USU can not win the MW unless there is makeup games. 

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other seeds (without make up games)

BSU- High seed 1 low seed 4

SDSU- High seed 1 low seed 4

CSU- High seed 1 low seed 5

USU- High seed 2 low seed 5

Nevada- High seed 4 low seed 5

UNLV- High seed 6 low seed 8

Fresno- High seed 6 low seed 8

WY- High seed 6 low seed 8

SJSU- High seed 9 low seed 11

Air Force- High seed 9 low seed 11

New Mexico- High seed 9 low seed 11

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2 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

I hate that USU is punished because Wyoming is a bunch of COWARDS.

 Thoughts @slappy?

Don't ever let hate enter ur heart young one.  The less involvement you have with the state of Utah the cleaner the soul.  Clean living.  See you chumps in the tourney

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7 hours ago, slappy said:

Don't ever let hate enter ur heart young one.  The less involvement you have with the state of Utah the cleaner the soul.  Clean living.  See you chumps in the tourney

 

Channeling your inner Bill Walton?

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14 minutes ago, jdgaucho said:

 

Channeling your inner Bill Walton?

Gotta help the young kids.  They get so angry and emotional.  Parenting just wasn't the same for them.  I do my part where I can.

 

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Don't forget the make up games.  Word is that SDSU will get forfeits for the New Mexico games and that CSU will have to make up the games at Nevada.  Also looks like SDSU will get to bypass playing the games at UNLV.  If SDSU can win both games at Boise State they will win likely win the conference, ditto for Boise State if they win.  CSU can tie if they win out, or win outright if they win out and SDSU/Boise split.

Nevada might still be able to get the 2 seed if they win out vs Utah State and Nevada and Boise State loses both games.

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2 hours ago, namssa said:

Don't forget the make up games.  Word is that SDSU will get forfeits for the New Mexico games and that CSU will have to make up the games at Nevada.  Also looks like SDSU will get to bypass playing the games at UNLV.  If SDSU can win both games at Boise State they will win likely win the conference, ditto for Boise State if they win.  CSU can tie if they win out, or win outright if they win out and SDSU/Boise split.

Nevada might still be able to get the 2 seed if they win out vs Utah State and CSU and Boise State loses both games.

Yep, there are some other scenarios than those listed above if makeup games are going to actually take place. The one makeup series that absolutely needs to be played is CSU @ UNR.

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1 hour ago, TrueAg said:

Yep, there are some other scenarios than those listed above if makeup games are going to actually take place. The one makeup series that absolutely needs to be played is CSU @ UNR.

Yeah CSU is the 4th best squad but will probably win the conference. They rarely win anything, I have no problem with them getting a Scheduling break due to Covid 

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1 hour ago, boisewitha-s said:

Yeah CSU is the 4th best squad but will probably win the conference. They rarely win anything, I have no problem with them getting a Scheduling break due to Covid 

Let’s see what happens with that label of 4th best. Might be true, might not be.

CSU is the only team that hasn’t been swept in a two-game series. When all is said and done, they will have beaten SDSU, USU, and BSU once each. None of the others in the Top 4 will be able to make that claim other than Boise if they win a game this week.

As for a scheduling “break” due to COVID, CSU has played the toughest schedule to date of any of the top 4 teams according to KenPom.com.

To get caught up after their COVID shutdown, they played 10 games in 23 days including a period where they were on the road for 8 of 9 days. Thats not something any other MWC program had to go through (other than SJSU and UNM for other reasons).

I’d also be curious to hear your thoughts on whether crowds have made a difference in the places where they’re allowed.  Would love to hear if you think the crowds helped Boise vs Utah State. According to my math, home teams with crowds have an MWC record of 7-3. CSU’s road record in front of crowds is 3-1. Yes, they are the only road team to win an MWC game in front of a crowd.

 

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I think the difference of the top 4 is really splitting hairs at this point. We saw USU sweep SDSU but I still consider SDSU the team I would least like to face in the tourney. I don't think USU could currently sweep SDSU in a two game series and I highly doubt they could even win a single winner-take-all affair in the tourney. We just watched BSU take both from USU in games that essentially went down to the wire. BUT...it took perhaps the best two games of the season from BSU and USU playing without their starting PG for the first time all year after sitting around for 2+ weeks. BSU is talented but I would not be all that worried if USU were to face them in a tournament match up. We also watched CSU steal a miraculous one in SD which probably would happen 1/100 times in that fashion down 26 and then be the benefactor of one of USU's sweet shooting performances on the year (48 hours after being beat by 19 points no less). This is a team that must be living right because they have ended up on the winning side more often than not in close games with 4 "W"s in conference games decided by 3 points or less. Perhaps they can ride the wave of good vibes all way to a tourney title but I'm not sure I would bet on their good fortune continuing that far.

I do believe if CSU does not play the games at UNR they will end up in first place in either a tie with SDSU or in sole possession if BSU can manage a split with the Aztecs.

USU is the weakest of the 4 right now and maybe even surpassed by UNR if they are without Worster the remainder of the season. Playing a 7 man rotation is not a recipe for tourney success nor is not having your starting PG going to help going up against talented guard lineups on the other top teams.

 

As for playing in front of crowds, I'm not sure it's much of an advantage with the numbers that are being let in. The arenas are still largely empty caverns with a few people spread around here and there. I'm sure it is uplifting to the players when they come on the court the first time or during introductions but I don't think it is affecting the games all that much. I have heard far more noise from the players on the sidelines and the piped in crowd noise in truly empty arenas than I have from the few games that have a 800-1500 fans.

 

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22 minutes ago, TrueAg said:

I think the difference of the top 4 is really splitting hairs at this point. We saw USU sweep SDSU but I still consider SDSU the team I would least like to face in the tourney. I don't think USU could currently sweep SDSU in a two game series and I highly doubt they could even win a single winner-take-all affair in the tourney. We just watched BSU take both from USU in games that essentially went down to the wire. BUT...it took perhaps the best two games of the season from BSU and USU playing without their starting PG for the first time all year after sitting around for 2+ weeks. BSU is talented but I would not be all that worried if USU were to face them in a tournament match up. We also watched CSU steal a miraculous one in SD which probably would happen 1/100 times in that fashion down 26 and then be the benefactor of one of USU's sweet shooting performances on the year (48 hours after being beat by 19 points no less). This is a team that must be living right because they have ended up on the winning side more often than not in close games with 4 "W"s in conference games decided by 3 points or less. Perhaps they can ride the wave of good vibes all way to a tourney title but I'm not sure I would bet on their good fortune continuing that far.

I do believe if CSU does not play the games at UNR they will end up in first place in either a tie with SDSU or in sole possession if BSU can manage a split with the Aztecs.

USU is the weakest of the 4 right now and maybe even surpassed by UNR if they are without Worster the remainder of the season. Playing a 7 man rotation is not a recipe for tourney success nor is not having your starting PG going to help going up against talented guard lineups on the other top teams.

 

As for playing in front of crowds, I'm not sure it's much of an advantage with the numbers that are being let in. The arenas are still largely empty caverns with a few people spread around here and there. I'm sure it is uplifting to the players when they come on the court the first time or during introductions but I don't think it is affecting the games all that much. I have heard far more noise from the players on the sidelines and the piped in crowd noise in truly empty arenas than I have from the few games that have a 800-1500 fans.

 

 

Arguably the two best games of the season from Boise?

LMAO.  No.  We played two good games but nothing special.  Little out of Doutrive and Akot.  Poor defense at times.  We played two, really good halves in each game, though.

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