The long shot of getting 4 teams in and how it could happen

[BacksThePack]

Why's CSU dodging us? They scared!

[818SUDSFan]

17 hours ago, jdgaucho said:

UCSB winning at Pepperdine and splitting with Loyola Marymount ooc might not be enough for an at-large case, but over here CSU and Boise are in better position than Memphis and SMU.  The MW has three top 50 teams. The AAC, still only has one.  That will be a factor.

No way the Pea6 doesn't get at least 2 teams in the NCAAs.

Houston? Lock. Central FLA? Lock. So if another school wins their tourney, it'll be 3.

[Swoll Cracker]

1 hour ago, BacksThePack said:

Why's CSU dodging us? They scared!

Why did Nevada get shut down for COVID?

A lot of why’s this season. Not a typical season for sure.

[kingpotato]

2 hours ago, Swoll Cracker said:

I posted this tweet in response to that tripe from Ziegler that Rains chose to retweet. Sad when conference mates try to tear down a fellow conference member rather than supporting them over another non-conference team.

 

They are being pussies. There is no denying that. Boise will have by far the toughest schedule of the top teams after this week. SDSU, UNR, and CSU all 6 on the road. Only USU was home. And they swept that one.

I hope this doesn't come back and bite them in the butt. UNM is terrible, but a loss to them and CSU is no longer in the conversation. They aren't even a bubble team anymore. A loss to UNR and they're still in the conversation.

[Swoll Cracker]

1 minute ago, kingpotato said:

They are being pussies. There is no denying that. Boise will have by far the toughest schedule of the top teams after this week. SDSU, UNR, and CSU all 6 on the road. Only USU was home. And they swept that one.

I hope this doesn't come back and bite them in the butt. UNM is terrible, but a loss to them and CSU is no longer in the conversation. They aren't even a bubble team anymore. A loss to UNR and they're still in the conversation.

Every team in the MWC had their challenges this season. Boise and CSU got hosed in terms of the home/road mix with the top teams. San Diego State and Utah State got the benefit of the mix.  In terms of travel, San Diego State will only play 5 games outside of California when all is said and done, including only 4 at elevation. 

Boise did get the benefit of playing the teams in pretty much the reverse order of the pre-season conference predicted standing, helping build momentum with such an inexperienced but talented team. The best part of CSU’s schedule was that it was backloaded with minimal travel toward the end.

Let’s wait and see what shakes out rather than relying on a San Diego beat writer who is trying to position the school he covers as a victim.

[blind_squirrel54]

18 minutes ago, Swoll Cracker said:

Every team in the MWC had their challenges this season. Boise and CSU got hosed in terms of the home/road mix with the top teams. San Diego State and Utah State got the benefit of the mix.  In terms of travel, San Diego State will only play 5 games outside of California when all is said and done, including only 4 at elevation. 

Boise did get the benefit of playing the teams in pretty much the reverse order of the pre-season conference predicted standing, helping build momentum with such an inexperienced but talented team. The best part of CSU’s schedule was that it was backloaded with minimal travel toward the end.

Let’s wait and see what shakes out rather than relying on a San Diego beat writer who is trying to position the school he covers as a victim.

Ya, I got a "Poor SDSU" vibe in that article.

I think Nevada needs to make up games. Otherwise, they will have played just two games in the ~month leading up to the conference tournament. If they sweep USU, the CSU games should be priority because there would be a chance that Nevada could play their way out of the 4/5 game. Otherwise, the opponent (either CSU or SJSU) isn't as important, from Nevada's perspective.

[e-zone99]

6 hours ago, jdgaucho said:

This isn't a typical year.  Some teams only played a couple nonconference games, if at all, and regionalized. The MW lost their A10 challenge (didn't get to play due to covid and 20 conference games).  So what's left is mostly conference play.  Boise, SDSU and CSU have metrics working in their favor.  They look like tournament teams.  Question is - do Memphis, UCSB or SMU?  

Boise St and SDSU have metrics and scheduling working in there favor, but a quick look I'm not sure you can say the same about Colorado St: #46 NET (that's pretty good), #66 KenPom (not so good), #76 BPI (not good), #69 Sagarin (not so good), #21 KPI (this is really nice), #49 SOR (that's pretty good).

Q1 2-3 and Q2 1-1, Avg NET Win: 184, Avg NET Loss: 46 (not bad)

But Colorado St only played 4 OOC games: Non-D1 Colorado St-Pueblo 12/12/20, #330 Northern Arizona 12/14/20, #73 @St Mary's 12/19/20, #160 Santa Clara (@Santa Cruz) 12/22/20; this seems a little lite and likely will not help their cause.

vs

Boise St 5 games OOC: #6 @Houston 11/27/20, #139 Sam Houston St (@Fort Worth Texas) 11/29/20, Non-D1 College of Idaho 12/4/20, #22 @BYU 12/9/20, #105 Weber St

SDSU 7 games OOC: #43 UCLA 11/25/20, #115 UC Irvine 11/27/20,  Non-D1 St Katherine 12/2/20, #111 Pepperdine 12/6/20, #117 @Arizona St 12/10/20, #22 BYU 12/18/20, #73 St Mary's (@San Luis Obispo) 12/22/20

BYU 11 games OOC: Non-D1 Westminster 11/25/20, #320 New Orleans 11/26/20, #245 Utah Valley 11/28/20, #18 USC (Uncasville, CT) 12/1/20, #75 St John's (Uncasville, CT) 12/2/20, #55 @Utah St 12/5/20, #32 Boise St 12/9/20, #94 Utah 12/12/20, #24 @SDSU 12/18/20, #222 Texas Southern 12/21/20, #105 Weber St (@Salt Lake City) 12/23/20

BYU played 6 straight games from 12/1 to 12/18 that are now teams with NET's under 100, starting in Connecticut and ending in San Diego, California.  Coach Pope said he thought the NCAA Committee would likely reward BYU for such a tough OCC schedule (11 games from 11/25 to 12/18) or think he was crazy (this was before the season started).

 

 

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

Stubborn ignorance is the best kind.

[jdgaucho]

They learn from the best

[4UNLV]

 

A little exaggeration there, Mark.. Kevin said he understood SDSU's point of view.

The Rebels seem to understand.

“As far as make-up games,” UNLV assistant coach Kevin Kruger told ESPN Las Vegas radio last week, “if I’m a team comfortably in the tournament, I wouldn’t be over the moon about playing an extra game the week before the conference tournament. Your biggest concern is obviously staying healthy. You’d just hate to have an instance where in a make-up game … (you) lose a guy.

“We’re kind of on the other side of that coin, where we have the confidence that when we put it together we can beat anybody on any given night.”

Asked specifically about the Aztecs-Rebels games, he added: “I can’t speak for San Diego State, but I think they might be one of those teams that says, ‘I don’t really know where the advantage is.’ … I’d assume they might fall into that category.”

 

But I agree about SDSU. Why play it..

It’s a risky proposition for an SDSU team that climbed to No. 22 in the Associated Press poll Monday and is in the top 25 of all the major metrics, playing on the road against the rival Rebels, whose record (10-11) and metrics (168 in the NCAA’s NET) belie their talent.

A loss in a meaningless make-up game could be crippling not only for SDSU’s NCAA Tournament resume but the rest of the conference as well, since teams like Colorado State and Utah State are clinging to the bubble by virtue of wins against the Aztecs. UNLV already knocked off fourth-place Utah State late last month in Las Vegas and nearly won at first-place Boise State.

 

[thedude15]

40 minutes ago, 4UNLV said:

 

Well  my point it should be all or nothing. Either make up as many as possible OR let teams pick and chose.  And "expect maybe Air Force" well DUH they are on track to be the ONLY team not to miss any MW games related to COVID this year. Just have one series left with Air Force. 

[thedude15]

So I guess. For the MW makeup week. 

BSU- plays one game vs Fresno. Could also add another OOC that week. Full 20 conference games

SDSU- gets two forfeit wins over NM, plays two  vs UNLV. Full 20 (in terms of standings) conference  games  

CSU- Guessing MW will have them play Nevada x2. So they will only play 18  conference  games total (miss NM series) 

USU- Either play one @ Fresno and host one vs WY or just play 2 vs WY. To simplify  just play 2 vs WY. 19 games (miss one @Fresno)

Nevada- Play 2 against CSU. Miss SJSU series. 18 conference games. 

Fresno- probably just the one game @BSU. 19 conference games (miss one vs USU). 

UNLV- Play 2 vs SDSU. 18 conference games (miss two @WY).

WY- Play 2 @USU. 18 conference games (miss two vs UNLV).

SJSU- Play 0. 18 conference games (miss two vs Nevada)

AF- Play 0. Full 20 games played

NM- Play 0. 18 conference games (forfeit two vs SDSU miss two vs CSU)

 

[thedude15]

Also Zeigler makes it sound like the TV overlords are the one really deciding (not fairness). I mean in the article he is saying they want everyone to play each team at least once (mentions BSU might not have to make up Fresno game cause they already played Fresno).

Honestly the TV overlords probably just said "we want x amount of games" and the MW caved. Don't get me wrong that actually makes sense. I mean the MW had a bunch of games cx cause of COVID and they sch an open week to make up games. If I was the TV partner I would be pissed if the MW decided not to use those games.

So guessing the TV partners would take at the very least. 

SDSU @ UNLV (duh SDSU is currently ranked)

Nevada vs CSU

BSU vs mystery OOC team    

That is a solid 3 games to start. Not sure what else they would be interested in. 

 

[Pelado]

On 2/21/2021 at 7:50 PM, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

BW is getting one bid, hope it’s you! UCSB is perfect modern example of the NET paradox.  Need to win tournament.

I understand your sentiment regarding your AAC position.  Wish the playing field was more equitable.

 

On 2/21/2021 at 7:57 PM, jdgaucho said:

 

You sure about that?  Continuing to win only puts more pressure on that paradox.  UCSB jumping into the NET 30s with a gaudy record, decent kenpom and BPI - and no bad losses - would be hard to turn away....

Especially if no one else from the AAC cracks the top 50

 

On 2/21/2021 at 8:45 PM, e-zone99 said:

AAC is likely only a 1 bid conference this year.   Wichita St is 2-2 in Q1 games and 2-2 in Q2 games right now.  #68 NET, #73 KenPom, #99 BPI, #68 Sagarin, #36 KPI, #35 SOR.

Utah St numbers look better than Wichita St: 2-4 in Q1 games , 1-1 in Q2 games , #56 NET, #54 KenPom, #46 BPI, #56 Sagarin, #73 KPI, #83 SOR and I don't see them getting an at-large bid either.

 

As much as it pains me to agree with Woosh, I do agree that Wichita State's profile so far (https://bracketologists.com/team/wichita-state-shockers) looks better than either UCSB (https://bracketologists.com/team/uc-santa-barbara-gauchos) or Utah State (https://bracketologists.com/team/utah-state-aggies).

The actual NET ranking isn't really that important.  In 2019, a team as high as 33 was excluded from the tournament, while teams rated 47, 56, 63, and 73 all got in.  I think the committee is much more interested in how teams performed against each quadrant and what are their best wins.  Wichita State has an even record against both Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams, including a win over NET #6 Houston.  They have no losses in Quad 3 or 4 games.  In fact, of their 4 losses, three are to teams likely to get at-large bids - #6 Houston, #37 Oklahoma State, and #40 Missouri - and the fourth isn't that bad - at #61 Memphis.

UCSB has a gaudy record but have not even played any Quad 1 games and have a losing record in Quad 2 games.  Their best win was at Pepperdine, which will definitely not be an at-large selection to the tournament.  Like Wichita, they have no losses in Quad 3 or 4 games.  It probably isn't their fault that they haven't been able to get any better games on the schedule, but the committee rarely awards at-large bids to teams with this type of tournament profile.

Utah State has had many more opportunities against Quad 1 teams than either Wichita State or UCSB, but they haven't won any more of them than Wichita State, and their best win(s) (home against #24 SDSU) are not as impressive as Wichita State's home win against #6 Houston.  And, to top it off, they have a 2-2 record in Quad 3 games.  So Utah State has shown they can win against tournament-level competition, but they've also shown they can lose to bad teams.  The committee does overlook bad losses at times when the team has demonstrated the capacity to win Quad 1 games, but that courtesy seems most prevalent when they consider teams from the "Power" conferences.  As an example of that courtesy, check out Oklahoma State (https://bracketologists.com/team/oklahoma-state-cowboys).  They have one Q3 loss to TCU, but it is offset by being 6-4 in Quad 1 games.

Of these three teams, I'd say the most likely to get an at-large bid based on their current profiles is Wichita State.