Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

sdsuphilip4

The long shot of getting 4 teams in and how it could happen

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

USU has resigned themselves to the NIT unless they win the tournament.

SDSU is a lock for a bid.

If Boise wins one of the two road games against SDSU (26 NET) they are a lock for a bid.

If any other team wins the MWC tournament they get a bid.

We have near two locks and if one of Boise/SDSU wins the tournament, they get a bid.

The MWC is a whole lot closer to 3 bids than the AAC.  MWC is a lock for 2 with an outside shot at 3.  AAC will get their autobid, if that is a team other than Houston they get two.  If it is Houston they have a 50/50 chance at an at large.  Would require one of SMU/WSU sweeping the rest of the game until the CCG.

AAC has 0 shot at 3.

I don't see SDSU as a lock, if they go 0-2 against Boise St they would then be 0-3 in Q1 games and 4-3 in Q2 games.  Heck, I don't count BYU as a lock yet and they are 3-3 in Q1 games and 4-2 in Q2 games #22 NET right now.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, e-zone99 said:

I don't see SDSU as a lock, if they go 0-2 against Boise St they would then be 0-3 in Q1 games and 4-3 in Q2 games.  Heck, I don't count BYU as a lock yet and they are 3-3 in Q1 games and 4-2 in Q2 games #22 NET right now.

 

Yeah, you are probably right.  The best thing for the MWC would be to have SDSU and Boise split, right?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, e-zone99 said:

 

I'm not sure that will even work, it might but they just won't add that many quality games.

#59 SMU remaining regular season games- #68 @Wichita St (Q1 game), #130 @Cincinnati (Q2 game), #114 Tulsa (Q3 game)

#61 Memphis remaining regular season games- #156 Tulane (Q3 game), #130 @Cincinnati (Q2 game), #150 @South Florida (Q3 game), #6 Houston (Q1 game)

#68 Wichita St remaining regular season games- #59 SMU (Q2 game), #156 @Tulane (Q3 game), #174 @Temple (Q3 game)

The biggest problem with the AAC in there is to much parity and there is really no upper teams other than Houston (everyone is bunched together: 6, 59-174).  Heck Houston lost @ #147 East Carolina the last place team in the ACC.

 

The last place team in the aac has a winning overall record.  A quarter of the MWC has won 5 or fewer games total.  I think you’re looking at this wrong.

Youre also neglecting to mention that those teams play each other multiple times, the q1 games.  Plus the aac will reschedule any decent postponed game to help their cause, seemingly unlike the Mw who is appears to be trying to preserve the vote before the Mail-in ballots come.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

The two values that matter most here are the q1/q2 records and SOR and WSU outpaces in those categories.  I’m not trying to be difficult,  those other ratings you listed change a lot and will look different in the end.  As an example, a mediocre UCF jumped 13 spots by beating a mediocre temple yesterday.  This happens every year.  In the end things will be a certain way, laid out in the post you quoted.  I don’t think it’s right.  

 

2 hours ago, e-zone99 said:

Not really Utah St has play 6 Q1 games vs 4 for Wichita St.  Wichita St has 4 Q2 games vs 2 for Utah St, as you can see Q1 games (win or lose) add more value than Q2 games in the NET rankings.  Thus, Utah St #56 NET and Wichita St #68 NET even though Wichita St has a better SOS (Wichita St #88, Utah St #121).  Sorry, but as on now the metrics don't show the AAC with 2 at-large bids.

 

 

I'm kinda sensing that "eye test" will be considered more this year than folks realize.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

USU has resigned themselves to the NIT unless they win the tournament.

SDSU is a lock for a bid.

If Boise wins one of the two road games against SDSU (26 NET) they are a lock for a bid.

If any other team wins the MWC tournament they get a bid.

We have near two locks and if one of Boise/SDSU wins the tournament, they get a bid.

The MWC is a whole lot closer to 3 bids than the AAC.  MWC is a lock for 2 with an outside shot at 3.  AAC will get their autobid, if that is a team other than Houston they get two.  If it is Houston they have a 50/50 chance at an at large.  Would require one of SMU/WSU sweeping the rest of the game until the CCG.

AAC has 0 shot at 3.

The only lock is the auto bid.   I’m not even sure if it’s worth responding to the rest.  Let’s just say the logic needs work.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

The only lock is the auto bid.   I’m not even sure if it’s worth responding to the rest.  Let’s just say the logic needs work.

Bruh The AAC has one team in the NET top 55.

Congrats on having a bunch of Q3 win like teams?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, jdgaucho said:

 

 

I'm kinda sensing that "eye test" will be considered more this year than folks realize.  

 

The "Eye Test", normally means we are going to count the number of NCAA Tournament team you played this year.  That would be bad for the MWC, because the majority of their best games have came from within the conference.  Aka, what big wins have MWC teams got in their OOC schedule.  SDSU has a nice win over UCLA, Boise St got a nice win @BYU (lost @Houston), but in turn BYU won at Utah St and SDSU.  Colorado St only played had 4 OOC games Colorado St-Pueblo, Northern Arizona, @St Mary's (lost 33-53), and Santa Clara (played @Santa Cruz).  It's the OOC wins that always help with the "Eye Test".

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Bruh The AAC has one team in the NET top 55.

Congrats on having a bunch of Q3 win like teams?

 

Are you even paying attention to what’s being said here?

The NET rankings are meaningless right now.  SDSU dropped without even playing/winning their last game.  UCF jumped 13 beating a bad team two days ago.  These are two random choices.  NET is not your friend, it is an exclusionary tactic.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, e-zone99 said:

 

The "Eye Test", normally means we are going to count the number of NCAA Tournament team you played this year.  That would be bad for the MWC, because the majority of their best games have came from within the conference.  Aka, what big wins have MWC teams got in their OOC schedule.  SDSU has a nice win over UCLA, Boise St got a nice win @BYU (lost @Houston), but in turn BYU won at Utah St and SDSU.  Colorado St only played had 4 OOC games Colorado St-Pueblo, Northern Arizona, @St Mary's (lost 33-53), and Santa Clara (played @Santa Cruz).  It's the OOC wins that always help with the "Eye Test".

 

That’s true, and I think that’s what he was getting at.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This isn't a typical year.  Some teams only played a couple nonconference games, if at all, and regionalized. The MW lost their A10 challenge (didn't get to play due to covid and 20 conference games).  So what's left is mostly conference play.  Boise, SDSU and CSU have metrics working in their favor.  They look like tournament teams.  Question is - do Memphis, UCSB or SMU?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ucsb has zero shot of an at large. They have zero good wins. If they ended the season with 1-2 losses they could get in with no good wins BUT that is not going to happen (they would have at least 4 loses). Honstely it is kinda like when lbsu would go 2-10 in ooc but still have a very solid rpi (cause they played 5 top 25 teams). If u just looked at lbsu rpi you could say they could be in contention for an at large bid but when u looked at whole picture they had zero shot.

And dont get me wrong unless my team pulls off a miracle and wins the bwt I am 100% voting for ucsb to win out. You guys could get a 13 seed (worse case 14) everyone else is looking in the 15 seed to pig range. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 UCSB also has zero bad losses.  And currently, a higher NET ranking and BPI than CSU.  While the Rams have the edge everywhere else, KenPom is only separated by a negligible four places.  Our SOR is 60.  There are metrics to work with courtesy of a quiet double digit win streak.

 UCSB has two Q2 road games upcoming.  Who'da thunk UC Riverside would represent that?  A Santa Barbara sweep improves the Q2 record to 3-3 and likely improve all the other metrics.

Palm has UCSB as a 12 seed. Win out until the BWT and that ceiling is likely a 11/12 seed.  Which by the way, is where the last at-larges go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jdgaucho said:

 UCSB also has zero bad losses.  And currently, a higher NET ranking and BPI than CSU.  While the Rams have the edge everywhere else, KenPom is only separated by a negligible four places.  Our SOR is 60.  There are metrics to work with courtesy of a quiet double digit win streak.

 UCSB has two Q2 road games upcoming.  Who'da thunk UC Riverside would represent that?  A Santa Barbara sweep improves the Q2 record to 3-3 and likely improve all the other metrics.

Palm has UCSB as a 12 seed. Win out until the BWT and that ceiling is likely a 11/12 seed.  Which by the way, is where the last at-larges go.

Zero chance at 11 seed. If u win out and other things break ur way 12 is possible but that is absolute ceiling. And mind you to be in at large consideration that means u drop at least one more game (which obviously hurts ur resume). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/20/2021 at 6:44 PM, TrueAg said:

Yeah, I agree that there is zero chance that the MWC sends 4. There is also zero chance that USU wins the tourney for a third straight time without a 100% healthy Worster and that isn't going to happen.

I'd actually not be surprised if UNR's current Covid issues cause the games this week with USU to not be played and I would absolutely not be surprised if BSU suddenly has "Covid issues" and doesn't even make it to SDSU. I believe Rice will do anything to improve his team's shot at a regular season title at this point.

SDSU v BSU  - CSU v UNR  - USU v UNR

These are the only series that even matter now and that would only be for tourney seeding......if the MWC decides to in fact have a tourney.

That's not what's happening. CSU is ducking, Boise is trying to schedule another bubble team.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/21/2021 at 9:37 AM, alum93 said:

Two bids is a given, three is a possibility depending on who wins the tourney and how the SDSU/BSU series plays out, and four bids is close to zero chance.  The MWC is a 1-2 bid league, but in the shortened season with few OOC games, they can definitely get three this year.

lol, the MW has only gotten one bid once in the last 20 years. Meanwhile they've gotten 3+ bids multiple times. Try again...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I dont blame csu for trying to play nm instead. Sdsu is opting not to play unlv so other teams should get to pick who they play also. If csu goes 4-0 they get at least a share mw rs title. They really dont have much shot at an at large bid anyways so playing nm really doesn't hurt them. 

 

Edit. Correction bsu (if they sweep sdsu) would still win mw outright even if csu goes 4-0.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, thedude15 said:

I dont blame csu for trying to play nm instead. Sdsu is opting not to play unlv so other teams should get to pick who they play also. If csu goes 4-0 they get at least a share mw rs title. They really dont have much shot at an at large bid anyways so playing nm really doesn't hurt them. 

That's not true. They are in a ton of prognosticators brackets. I've seen them as high as a #9 seed, even. In fact, I see them in more brackets than I see them out.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, kingpotato said:

That's not what's happening. CSU is ducking, Boise is trying to schedule another bubble team.

 

I posted this tweet in response to that tripe from Ziegler that Rains chose to retweet. Sad when conference mates try to tear down a fellow conference member rather than supporting them over another non-conference team.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...