The long shot of getting 4 teams in and how it could happen

[thedude15]

4 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Fresno make-up is the most likely, but seems weird BSU would play another risky game?

If make up games are optional maybe Fresno would not want to head to bsu for makeup game. Honestly not sure how playing either bsu or usu would really help fresno. I mean both are possible quarterfinals opponents (if Fresno makes it to quarterfinals). If Fresno has an upset in them better to save it for mwt. Or conversely even if fresno doesn't have an upset in them no sense in signing up for another blowout lol. 

[4UNLV]

There is no way we get 4 teams in, we'll be lucky to get 3.

I'd love to be wrong, but...

[BSUTOP25]

[Nevada6077]

I think nevada wins the tourney if we can play!  

[alum93]

Two bids is a given, three is a possibility depending on who wins the tourney and how the SDSU/BSU series plays out, and four bids is close to zero chance.  The MWC is a 1-2 bid league, but in the shortened season with few OOC games, they can definitely get three this year.

[KingBronco]

50 minutes ago, 4UNLV said:

There is no way we get 4 teams in, we'll be lucky to get 3.

I'd love to be wrong, but...

Yeah, I have a hard time seeing how we could get four in at this point. That would require CSU, SDSU and BSU to all get in via at-large bids and then having another team, probably USU or Nevada win the MWCT. I think that 4th "bid stealer" team would probably end up taking a bid from one of our own.

I do think there is a very reasonable chance for getting three in though, but it probably requires the upcoming SDSU vs. BSU series to result in a split, then both advancing to the conference semis, but someone else winning the MWCT.

[KingBronco]

10 minutes ago, Nevada6077 said:

I think nevada wins the tourney if we can play!  

Nevada will definitely be dangerous. Guard play is even more important at tourney time and Sherfield is the best guard in the conference IMO...although Nevada's path will be brutal assuming they end up in the 4/5 game. 

[e-zone99]

There are to many power conference teams setting on the outside for the MWC to even dream about 4 and 3 likely won't happen.

Compare these two teams

Team A- Record 14-4; Q1 2-3; Q2 1-1; Q3 3-0; Q4 7-0; ND1 1-0

vs

Team B- Record 13-10; Q1 4-9; Q2 1-1; Q3 4-0; Q4 4-0

 

 

Team A Colorado St (NET #47): Q1 wins over #26 San Diego St, #56 Utah St; Q1 losses #26 San Diego St, #56 Utah St, #74 St Mary's

KenPom #67, BPI #80, Sagarin #70, KPI #21, SOR #51

vs

Team B Minnesota (NET #61): Q1 wins over #3 Michigan, #5 Iowa, #6 Ohio St, #28 Purdue; Q1 losses #3 Michigan, #4 Illinois, #4 Illinois, #5 Iowa, #6 Ohio St, #23 Wisconsin, #28 Purdue, #29 Rutgers, #34 Maryland, #52 Indiana

KenPom #50, BPI #67, Sagarin #46, KPI #42, SOR #36

 

[Swoll Cracker]

When Utah State lost at UNLV and Boise lost a pair of games at Nevada, getting 4 in became virtually impossible.  A Boise split in Nevada would have been OK because they have other good stuff on their resume. Utah State’s loss at UNLV compounded early issues created by their two losses to start the year vs VCU and South Dakota State. 

Two is the most likely and three is still a possibility.

[818SUDSFan]

18 hours ago, thedude15 said:

The MW built in that last week to be open to make up games. Why would they not make up games that last week?

Because:

1. Every school in this financially downtrodden conference needs money;
2. NCAA tournament appearances by conference teams bring money to everybody;
3. And allowing UNLV and particularly UNM to have a chance to upset SDSU and thereby ruin its chances of an at-large bid is therefore potentially detrimental to everybody.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all that if UNM or UNLV should tell Hairball Thompson they want to make those games up that he will force SDSU to do so since it's pretty obvious the guy has disliked the Aztecs (and Boise too) ever since we maneuvered to get out of the MWC a decade ago.

[4UNLV]

51 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

Because:

1. Every school in this financially downtrodden conference needs money;
2. NCAA tournament appearances by conference teams bring money to everybody;
3. And allowing UNLV and particularly UNM to have a chance to upset SDSU and thereby ruin its chances of an at-large bid is therefore potentially detrimental to everybody.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me at all that if UNM or UNLV should tell Hairball Thompson they want to make those games up that he will force SDSU to do so since it's pretty obvious the guy has disliked the Aztecs (and Boise too) ever since we maneuvered to get out of the MWC a decade ago.

Fwiw, UNLV has been right there in almost every game against those in the top of the conference except the first game in Reno. And nobody was beating Reno that day, lol. A couple of wins in Fort Collins might have made a big difference in the confidence of the rebs, and obviously a difference in the standing.

Just sayin. UNLV can, and has, competed with everybody in here.

With that said, they suck.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

I see two bids coming, will hope for 3.  

[jdgaucho]

6 minutes ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

I see two bids coming, will hope for 3.  

 

3 for the MW likely means the AAC is only earning one if Houston wins the conference tournament

[4UNLV]

3 hours ago, 4UNLV said:

Fwiw, UNLV has been right there in almost every game against those in the top of the conference except the first game in Reno. And nobody was beating Reno that day, lol. A couple of wins in Fort Collins might have made a big difference in the confidence of the rebs, and obviously a difference in the standing.

Just sayin. UNLV can, and has, competed with everybody in here.

With that said, they suck.

I take this back. You should not make up games with us, it will not help you.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

1 hour ago, jdgaucho said:

 

3 for the MW likely means the AAC is only earning one if Houston wins the conference tournament

I don’t think they’ll have any bearing on each other whatsoever.  Both are getting two IMO.  AAC might sneak 3 in with Memphis if they finish strong but I don’t see it.  

[halfmanhalfbronco]

17 minutes ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

I don’t think they’ll have any bearing on each other whatsoever.  Both are getting two IMO.  AAC might sneak 3 in with Memphis if they finish strong but I don’t see it.  

SMU with a NET ranking of 58 is not getting an at large.

Wichita State?  They are the most likely to get a second bid, would require them to sweep SMU.

Not seeing the AAC getting more than 1 bid this year.  Only on team in the NET top 55.  

 

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

4 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

SMU with a NET ranking of 58 is not getting an at large.

Wichita State?  They are the most likely to get a second bid, would require them to sweep SMU.

Not seeing the AAC getting more than 1 bid this year.  Only on team in the NET top 55.  

 

The NET ranking beyond ~40 is good for media fodder but has left too many people holding bags that I don’t really find it to be very accurate as it relates to selection.  UCF had NET’s in the upper 30’s and barely made NIT before.  
 

It comes down to conference strength before that.  The top 7-8 conferences always get two, in the aac that’ll be Houston and Wichita St. for sure.  I have Memphis finishing stronger than smu, and they have institutional bball influence so I give them the better shot, but still less than 50%.  

Once you get past that conference ceiling you’re in one-bid territory with the exception of Cinderella’s that come through and win tournaments.  That said there’s obviously room for the Mw to break traditional molding and this should  be the year they get two... despite the overall lack of quality the top has done well enough to have that representation in my estimation.  I’m hopeful for as many as possible.  For the MWC I believe it’ll come down to how the MVC, A10, and even Southern conference do.  Out of these 4 conferences, believe two are 2-bid leagues.  MVC is a step ahead of the other three and the MW is a step ahead of the Southern Conference, but the A10 is a wildcard.  They are a better league than the MWC, but the west needs more representation so again I am hopeful.

[Headbutt]

1 hour ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

The NET ranking beyond ~40 is good for media fodder but has left too many people holding bags that I don’t really find it to be very accurate as it relates to selection.  UCF had NET’s in the upper 30’s and barely made NIT before.  
 

It comes down to conference strength before that.  The top 7-8 conferences always get two, in the aac that’ll be Houston and Wichita St. for sure.  I have Memphis finishing stronger than smu, and they have institutional bball influence so I give them the better shot, but still less than 50%.  

Once you get past that conference ceiling you’re in one-bid territory with the exception of Cinderella’s that come through and win tournaments.  That said there’s obviously room for the Mw to break traditional molding and this should  be the year they get two... despite the overall lack of quality the top has done well enough to have that representation in my estimation.  I’m hopeful for as many as possible.  For the MWC I believe it’ll come down to how the MVC, A10, and even Southern conference do.  Out of these 4 conferences, believe two are 2-bid leagues.  MVC is a step ahead of the other three and the MW is a step ahead of the Southern Conference, but the A10 is a wildcard.  They are a better league than the MWC, but the west needs more representation so again I am hopeful.

You're no Stunner.

[Did I hear a WOOSH?]

6 minutes ago, Headbutt said:

You're no Stunner.

Nope, objectivity and interest in your well-being make it difficult.

[jdgaucho]

 

2 hours ago, Did I hear a WOOSH? said:

The NET ranking beyond ~40 is good for media fodder but has left too many people holding bags that I don’t really find it to be very accurate as it relates to selection.  UCF had NET’s in the upper 30’s and barely made NIT before.  
 

It comes down to conference strength before that.  The top 7-8 conferences always get two, in the aac that’ll be Houston and Wichita St. for sure.  I have Memphis finishing stronger than smu, and they have institutional bball influence so I give them the better shot, but still less than 50%.  

Once you get past that conference ceiling you’re in one-bid territory with the exception of Cinderella’s that come through and win tournaments.  That said there’s obviously room for the Mw to break traditional molding and this should  be the year they get two... despite the overall lack of quality the top has done well enough to have that representation in my estimation.  I’m hopeful for as many as possible.  For the MWC I believe it’ll come down to how the MVC, A10, and even Southern conference do.  Out of these 4 conferences, believe two are 2-bid leagues.  MVC is a step ahead of the other three and the MW is a step ahead of the Southern Conference, but the A10 is a wildcard.  They are a better league than the MWC, but the west needs more representation so again I am hopeful.

 

Barring an upset in the AAC tournament, it's not getting two bids as things stand today.  UCSB boasts a higher NET ranking than everyone except Houston.   No one is giving us an at-large bid (yet).  

 What do ya know, at #43 that is right around your arbitrary ~40 cutoff .