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sdsuphilip4

The long shot of getting 4 teams in and how it could happen

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Again this is a long shot and it’s far from a guarantee 4 would get in this scenario. Also this is a best case scenario for the league not San Diego State, so I’m obviously not rooting for it.


SDSU/BSU/CSU/USU win out against games not against top 4
Boise/SDSU split
Top 4 would then be
CSU
BSU
USU
SDSU
Win out in tourney till semis Then CSU and USU win. USU beats CSU, pretty much only way 4 is possible

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4 minutes ago, sdsuphilip4 said:

Again this is a long shot and it’s far from a guarantee 4 would get in this scenario. Also this is a best case scenario for the league not San Diego State, so I’m obviously not rooting for it.


SDSU/BSU/CSU/USU win out against games not against top 4
Boise/SDSU split
Top 4 would then be
CSU
BSU
USU
SDSU
Win out in tourney till semis Then CSU and USU win. USU beats CSU, pretty much only way 4 is possible

Yeah, I think USU's only chance is to win the MW tournament. Some of those early losses really hurt them

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Yep BSU/SDSU taking care of business the rest of the regular season, CSU winning out until the MWT finals, and a 4th team winning the MWT. 

But at this point I am just hoping BSU/SDSU don't mess up the rest of the regular season. I would be plenty happy with 2 locks going into the MWT. 

 

On the flip side worse case would be having no locks lol. BSU finishes 0-3 (swept by SDSU, loses to Fresno) and SDSU goes 2-3 (sweep BSU, goes 0-3 vs Fresno/UNLV). But I highly doubt that will happen.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, kingpotato said:

Yeah, I think USU's only chance is to win the MW tournament. Some of those early losses really hurt them

Yep those 2 quad 3 loses basically eliminate them at this point. SDSU/BSU/CSU have zero quad 3 or 4 loses. 

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I’m pretty sure we’ll get two teams in, three maybe, four no way. Right now it’s looking like BSU/SDSU first and second, CSU third, USU fourth. I can see the MWCT going as follows:

First Round- Wyoming, Fresno State, and UNLV all winning

Second Round: USU beats Nevada, BSU beats Fresno State, SDSU beats UNLV, CSU beats Wyoming

Third Round and Fourth Round: Any of the top four can beat each other. 

 

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37 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

I’m pretty sure we’ll get two teams in, three maybe, four no way. Right now it’s looking like BSU/SDSU first and second, CSU third, USU fourth. I can see the MWCT going as follows:

 

I put the over under at 2.5. I would say like 5% for 1 bid, 60% for two bids, 34% for 3 bids, and 1% chance for 4 bids. 

4 would literally be the perfect storm. Everything would have to break exactly right in the MW and there would basically have to be no "bid thieves" from other conferences. The only really expectation would be if COVID wipes out a bunch of teams from the NCAAT. BUT that would really suck if even one team (even a 16 seed in a PIG) loses out on the NCAAT because of COVID. I would hope all teams are going into super cautious mood for this stretch run.  

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42 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

 

First Round- Wyoming, Fresno State, and UNLV all winning

Second Round: USU beats Nevada, BSU beats Fresno State, SDSU beats UNLV, CSU beats Wyoming

 

 

The "modern" MWT averages one upset a year in the quarters. I know this year the top 4 have separated themselves but I still think seeds 5/6/7 have a chance at pulling and upset (especially 5/6).  My guess is one will pull it off. 

2020- 2 upsets

2019- 0 upsets

2018-2 upset 

2017- 1 upset 

2016- 2 upsets 

2015- 0 upsets 

2014- 1 upset 

2013- 0 upsets 

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1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

I’m pretty sure we’ll get two teams in, three maybe, four no way. Right now it’s looking like BSU/SDSU first and second, CSU third, USU fourth. I can see the MWCT going as follows:

First Round- Wyoming, Fresno State, and UNLV all winning

Second Round: USU beats Nevada, BSU beats Fresno State, SDSU beats UNLV, CSU beats Wyoming

Third Round and Fourth Round: Any of the top four can beat each other. 

 

If Wyoming plays CSEwe a third time, we'll get the win. In fact, it's time for an epic Tournament upset run to the championship game...:rock:

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2 hours ago, thedude15 said:

Yep BSU/SDSU taking care of business the rest of the regular season, CSU winning out until the MWT finals, and a 4th team winning the MWT. 

But at this point I am just hoping BSU/SDSU don't mess up the rest of the regular season. I would be plenty happy with 2 locks going into the MWT. 

 

On the flip side worse case would be having no locks lol. BSU finishes 0-3 (swept by SDSU, loses to Fresno) and SDSU goes 2-3 (sweep BSU, goes 0-3 vs Fresno/UNLV). But I highly doubt that will happen.  

 

 

Are we 100% sure the UNLV/SDSU games will be made up? I’ve seen it speculated but has the league said anything?

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1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

I’m pretty sure we’ll get two teams in, three maybe, four no way. Right now it’s looking like BSU/SDSU first and second, CSU third, USU fourth. I can see the MWCT going as follows:

First Round- Wyoming, Fresno State, and UNLV all winning

Second Round: USU beats Nevada, BSU beats Fresno State, SDSU beats UNLV, CSU beats Wyoming

Third Round and Fourth Round: Any of the top four can beat each other. 

I'm pretty much where you are. Given that the Hair Thompson Conference has basically zero juice with the NCAA these days, there is zero chance of getting four in unless somebody besides SDSU, Boise, USU or CSU wins the conference tournament, and realistically only Nevada is capable of that. Most likely, one team from the aforementioned four will win the tournament and one of the other three will also get in what the NCAA now calls the second round with a third getting in "round one." The school among SDSU, Boise, USU and CSU which doesn't go to the dance will get offered an NIT slot with Nevada also having a good shot at the NIT provided the Wolf Pack isn't one and out in the MW tournament.

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7 minutes ago, sdsuphilip4 said:

Are we 100% sure the UNLV/SDSU games will be made up? I’ve seen it speculated but has the league said anything?

I mean it is the more logical of the two series SDSU missed to make up. So my guess is yes UNLESS the MW just scraps the idea of playing make up games that week and just gives everyone a week break before the MWT. 

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13 minutes ago, thedude15 said:

I mean it is the more logical of the two series SDSU missed to make up. So my guess is yes UNLESS the MW just scraps the idea of playing make up games that week and just gives everyone a week break before the MWT. 

Neither series should be made up since SDSU didn't cancel any of those games and UNLV, much less pathetic UNM, has no chance of post-season play and their beating the Aztecs could phuck up the conference's chances of getting three in the NCAAs.

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30 minutes ago, 818SUDSFan said:

Neither series should be made up since SDSU didn't cancel any of those games and UNLV, much less pathetic UNM, has no chance of post-season play and their beating the Aztecs could phuck up the conference's chances of getting three in the NCAAs.

The MW built in that last week to be open to make up games. Why would they not make up games that last week? Don't get me wrong from a NCAAT prospective we don't want BSU to make up their missed game vs Fresno or SDSU to make up UNLV/NM. BSU/SDSU have nothing to gain from those games and a loss would be devastating. CSU/Nevada make up series on the other hand might* be helpful for the NCAAT. But that is only if CSU sweeps that series (my guess is they will spilt like they have done vs every other solid team in the MW). So if your sole worry is the NCAAT it might make sense to just give CSU an off week also. 

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Yeah, I agree that there is zero chance that the MWC sends 4. There is also zero chance that USU wins the tourney for a third straight time without a 100% healthy Worster and that isn't going to happen.

I'd actually not be surprised if UNR's current Covid issues cause the games this week with USU to not be played and I would absolutely not be surprised if BSU suddenly has "Covid issues" and doesn't even make it to SDSU. I believe Rice will do anything to improve his team's shot at a regular season title at this point.

SDSU v BSU  - CSU v UNR  - USU v UNR

These are the only series that even matter now and that would only be for tourney seeding......if the MWC decides to in fact have a tourney.

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5 hours ago, thedude15 said:

I mean it is the more logical of the two series SDSU missed to make up. So my guess is yes UNLESS the MW just scraps the idea of playing make up games that week and just gives everyone a week break before the MWT. 

According to Zeigler it's unlikely to be made up, was in the post game recap 

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2 hours ago, sdsuphilip4 said:

According to Zeigler it's unlikely to be made up, was in the post game recap 

 

So that quote kinda makes it sound like make up games will be optional not required. So maybe both parties will have to agree to make up the games? 

"latest indication from conference sources is that the Aztecs won’t have to make up their road series at seventh-place UNLV."

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