Friday Nite MWC Hoops: Fresno St @ Nevada. Who Ya Got?

[Swoll Cracker]

[Swoll Cracker]

first let me say that as much as COVID19 sucks, we’re getting games on a lot of different nights and I like that. 

My winning streak now stands at 13 straight after last night’s first half under hit in the SDSU-USU game.  6 of them have been betting USU. 5 have been betting Boise. 1 on Nevada. 1 on Fresno.  Bottom line is that I have been riding the fact that both Utah State and Boise are tremendously undervalued by the computers. Both benefitted greatly from having easy early schedules in conference play and they are both playing like machines as a result.

Fresno State is on a 3-game roll but the wins are over Wyoming and San Jose State. The win over WYO was good, the wins over San Jose State were not. Nevada had two tough losses in Viejas and Alford has done a really good job with his inexperienced team. I like betting first halves but dont feel good about it. I do like Nevada -6.5 for the game.

[soupslam1]

Easy pick. Take Nevada to cover. Nevada plays good defense and Fresno State is the gang that can’t shoot straight. Nevada also has good defenders in the post which will limit Robinson, Fresnos only threat. I’d stay away from the over/under as Fresno is unpredictable. If I did bet it would be the under as Fresno plays good defense, but  is offensively challenged. 

You’ve missing your calling if you’ve won 13 straight. You should be a professional gambler. As an aside, I understand the odds line, but what does -295, etc. mean? 

[Swoll Cracker]

1 hour ago, soupslam1 said:

Easy pick. Take Nevada to cover. Nevada plays good defense and Fresno State is the gang that can’t shoot straight. Nevada also has good defenders in the post which will limit Robinson, Fresnos only threat. I’d stay away from the over/under as Fresno is unpredictable. If I did bet it would be the under as Fresno plays good defense, but  is offensively challenged. 

You’ve missing your calling if you’ve won 13 straight. You should be a professional gambler. As an aside, I understand the odds line, but what does -295, etc. mean? 

+295 means you win 295 if you bet 100. -295 means you need to bet 295 to win 100.

I could never be a professional gambler. It’s too hard. I’m just having fun and taking advantage of a unique situation caused by COVID-19 where the playing field is unequal. I could just as easily lose 13 in a row.

[UNLV2001]

Did a 5 pt teaser with UNR -1.5 & over 131 .....need both to win the teaser bet 

[UNLV2001]

10 hours ago, Swoll Cracker said:

first let me say that as much as COVID19 sucks, we’re getting games on a lot of different nights and I like that. 

 

Now that we've had a month or so of games, I sort of like the way we have almost a game a day .........not sure I would have liked it pre-covid, but now that I see it, I kind of like having some MWC action on more days 

Wonder if the MWC might work some of this in where we could get games on Wed, Thurs, Fri, Sat ....take the Sunday Monday & Tuesday off 

[Lester_in_reno]

6 hours ago, Swoll Cracker said:

 

I could never be a professional gambler. It’s too hard. I’m just having fun and taking advantage of a unique situation caused by COVID-19 where the playing field is unequal. I could just as easily lose 13 in a row.

it would drive me insane to be a professional gambler. No matter how much and how deeply   you think on a match, there are more factors that come out of nowhere during the actual event.

The best ones hit %57.

The very best geniuses.

Wolf Pack win tonight, not sure about the cover.

FWIW, Fox sports radio guy Doug Gottleib is on the FS1 TV call remotely . Pretty sure he'll still be in L.A.

[Rofl_copter_dos]

We aren't good yet.   Might end up decent by the end of the year but we roughed up a shorthanded wyo team and...SJSU.

[toonkee]

18 minutes ago, Lester_in_reno said:

it would drive me insane to be a professional gambler. No matter how much and how deeply   you think on a match, there are more factors that come out of nowhere during the actual event.

The best ones hit %57.

The very best geniuses.

Wolf Pack win tonight, not sure about the cover.

FWIW, Fox sports radio guy Doug Gottleib is on the FS1 TV call remotely . Pretty sure he'll still be in L.A.

Fwiw I think they are angles out there and one of them is smaller conference bball. If you really, really understand a conference, like you do, there are opportunities for the disciplined. 

While back I watched every game in the conference for years. I knew the programs and players so good. Did well at the books but it was a lot of stress and effort. Eventually I decided it wasn't worth the stress because I needed to bet more than I was comfy with to make it worth the time I was spending. 

So long story short, picking winners is but one aspect of the pro gamblers life. It really takes a certain personality to pull it off. 

[Lester_in_reno]

FYI Doug Gottlieb is going to be at the game.

[soupslam1]

31 minutes ago, toonkee said:

Fwiw I think they are angles out there and one of them is smaller conference bball. If you really, really understand a conference, like you do, there are opportunities for the disciplined. 

While back I watched every game in the conference for years. I knew the programs and players so good. Did well at the books but it was a lot of stress and effort. Eventually I decided it wasn't worth the stress because I needed to bet more than I was comfy with to make it worth the time I was spending. 

So long story short, picking winners is but one aspect of the pro gamblers life. It really takes a certain personality to pull it off. 

I could see doing it if I were single. Essentially you have to be more knowlegeable than the people you’re betting against plus cover the vig the bookies take. Like you say you have to be very knowledgeable about the smaller leagues that don’t get the big time gamblers that bet on the big conferences games. 

[toonkee]

29 minutes ago, soupslam1 said:

I could see doing it if I were single. Essentially you have to be more knowlegeable than the people you’re betting against plus cover the vig the bookies take. Like you say you have to be very knowledgeable about the smaller leagues that don’t get the big time gamblers that bet on the big conferences games. 

Yes. With regard to the smaller conferences, one thing I realized was that it wasn't just good enough to know the teams inside and out. The play has be relatively predictable. In recent years the mw basketball hasn't been too good, as a whole. It's hard to bet on teams to cover when you have end of game mistakes, poor coaching, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[thelawlorfaithful]

Gottleib missing the law of the jungle.

[thatsmymammy]

Nobody wants to score. 

[thelawlorfaithful]

Wtf was that Hymes?

[Swoll Cracker]

Nevada with a 16-14 lead at the under 8 TO but Fresno is out hustling them.

[thelawlorfaithful]

I love that FS1 has the old NBA on NBC music.

[thelawlorfaithful]

Now everybody is on fire. Amazing how when the balls goes in the basket these look like semi talented teams.

[thelawlorfaithful]

36-31 at the half. The last 5 minutes were good. 

[Swoll Cracker]

3 minutes ago, thelawlorfaithful said:

Now everybody is on fire. Amazing how when the balls goes in the basket these look like semi talented teams.

I woulda been pissed if I had the under. That 3-pointer burst by both teams put it over the number. As an aside, Fresno is definitely improved from when they opened the season at CSU. Their ball movement is way better.