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How off were the polls?

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Seems like the nationwide polls were right on the money with Biden at 51%.  But Trump overachieved to get to 47%.

Current results: Biden 79,535,824 (51.0%) Trump 73,616,203 (47.2%)

image.png.09a3f3170b81d773cb95c24b98dcedbb.png

Looks like there were a lot of undecided (or shy) Trump voters that turned out for him last minute once again.  Almost all these polls were spot-on for Biden though.

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IOW, Trump embarrassed his own voters enough that they didn't want to have to explain their vote based on his stupidity. He blew this, had no business losing, but couldn't stop himself from being an asshole and it's that simple. 

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RCP was right on the money with Pennsylvania after some last minute right-leaning polls brought the average closer to a tie. Five38 was questioning the cutoff (why Trafalgar included by Monmouth/Emerson not in the final average) but it turns out they predicted it pretty damn well.

Joe Biden 50% 3,454,696

Donald Trump 48.8% 3,372,343

image.png.fff4c57c16f5138cba8e58da3e832168.png

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21 minutes ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Seems like the nationwide polls were right on the money with Biden at 51%.  But Trump overachieved to get to 47%.

Current results: Biden 79,535,824 (51.0%) Trump 73,616,203 (47.2%)

image.png.09a3f3170b81d773cb95c24b98dcedbb.png

Looks like there were a lot of undecided (or shy) Trump voters that turned out for him last minute once again.  Almost all these polls were spot-on for Biden though.

I still don't buy the shy Trump voter theory. I've never met one of those in my life. I do buy the fact that Trump voters are morel likely to hang up on pollsters, thus harder to include and that political changes among demographics are making it harder to extrapolate based on existing assumptions. I also think that there was enough partisan grievance re: COVID built up that it got more people out to the polls who liked Trump but still didn't vote last time. That's my theory for at least some of the increase in Trump turnout.

I knew the final results would get closer to the polls. Some states like Wisconsin and Ohio were still off. But 538's main insight on giving Biden such a huge advantage in likelihood ended up being pretty spot on. They said over and over that there is an expectation in the model that polls would tighten, and his lead was big enough to withstand an even bigger polling error than in 2016. It's unclear if the polling error was bigger or was about the same this time, but Biden was far enough ahead to withstand the same error this time. 

If the votes were counted in reverse (mail-in first, then in-person) the conversation would be so very different. 

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17 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

I still don't buy the shy Trump voter theory. I've never met one of those in my life. I do buy the fact that Trump voters are morel likely to hang up on pollsters, thus harder to include and that political changes among demographics are making it harder to extrapolate based on existing assumptions. I also think that there was enough partisan grievance re: COVID built up that it got more people out to the polls who liked Trump but still didn't vote last time. That's my theory for at least some of the increase in Trump turnout.

I knew the final results would get closer to the polls. Some states like Wisconsin and Ohio were still off. But 538's main insight on giving Biden such a huge advantage in likelihood ended up being pretty spot on. They said over and over that there is an expectation in the model that polls would tighten, and his lead was big enough to withstand an even bigger polling error than in 2016. It's unclear if the polling error was bigger or was about the same this time, but Biden was far enough ahead to withstand the same error this time. 

If the votes were counted in reverse (mail-in first, then in-person) the conversation would be so very different. 

Lol. 

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2 hours ago, smltwnrckr said:

I still don't buy the shy Trump voter theory. I've never met one of those in my life. I do buy the fact that Trump voters are morel likely to hang up on pollsters, thus harder to include and that political changes among demographics are making it harder to extrapolate based on existing assumptions. I also think that there was enough partisan grievance re: COVID built up that it got more people out to the polls who liked Trump but still didn't vote last time. That's my theory for at least some of the increase in Trump turnout.

I knew the final results would get closer to the polls. Some states like Wisconsin and Ohio were still off. But 538's main insight on giving Biden such a huge advantage in likelihood ended up being pretty spot on. They said over and over that there is an expectation in the model that polls would tighten, and his lead was big enough to withstand an even bigger polling error than in 2016. It's unclear if the polling error was bigger or was about the same this time, but Biden was far enough ahead to withstand the same error this time. 

If the votes were counted in reverse (mail-in first, then in-person) the conversation would be so very different. 

This story tends to agree with your premise. Even though the pollsters tried to account for the difficulty in reaching some Trump voters, they were unsuccessful.

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/19/936317341/why-were-the-polls-off-pollsters-have-some-early-theories

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3 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Seems like the nationwide polls were right on the money with Biden at 51%.  But Trump overachieved to get to 47%.

Current results: Biden 79,535,824 (51.0%) Trump 73,616,203 (47.2%)

image.png.09a3f3170b81d773cb95c24b98dcedbb.png

Looks like there were a lot of undecided (or shy) Trump voters that turned out for him last minute once again.  Almost all these polls were spot-on for Biden though.

Some states still have absentee ballots left. Biden will likely win the popular vote margin by ~4.5% (5% possible)

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3 hours ago, soupslam1 said:

Wasn’t this recently discussed in another thread? 

When @Nevada Convert was make a thread about every other poll over the last 12 months, it was fine, but I make one thread specifically about discussing the results of the election compared to what the pollsters are collecting and it's too much?

 

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19 hours ago, Maji said:

Some states still have absentee ballots left. Biden will likely win the popular vote margin by ~4.5% (5% possible)

Four years ago Trump declared that he had won by a "landslide." Wonder what's going on in his block head now about this election.

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On 11/19/2020 at 11:09 AM, bsu_alum9 said:

It seems like RCP had similar results in all the other states as well.  Very close to predicting Biden but underselling Trump by 2-4%.

Nt

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On 11/20/2020 at 9:40 AM, 818SUDSFan said:

Four years ago Trump declared that he had won by a "landslide." Wonder what's going on in his block head now about this election.

donald trump GIF by Election 2016

 

 

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On 11/19/2020 at 10:09 AM, bsu_alum9 said:

It seems like RCP had similar results in all the other states as well.  Very close to predicting Biden but underselling Trump by 2-4%.

Which would align with Trump voters being untruthful to “own the libs”

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