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Rebels18

DING DONG LEGACY MEDIA IS DEAD

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16 hours ago, sactowndog said:

If Biden wins Penn, Mi, Wisconsin, Georgia and AZ it seems to me Trafalgar was wrong. 

They’ll still be one of the closest pollsters on everything.  Don’t cherry pick. You view a pollster on the whole thing. Of course there’s massive proof of shy Trump voters. Even With the popular vote, all the others ranged from about 6 to 11 for Biden. It’s currently at 2.5, that about what it will be when everything is counted. Yes, shy voters and shitty pollster work is the cause. Biden +17 for Wisconsin right before the election and it’ll turn out to be +0.5. Give me a break. 

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28 minutes ago, Nevada Convert said:

They’ll still be one of the closest pollsters on everything.  Do cherry pick. You view a pollster on the whole thing. Of course there’s massive proof of shy Trump voters. Even With the popular vote, all the others ranged from about 6 to 11 for Biden. It’s currently at 2.5, that about what it will be when everything is counted. Yes, shy voters and shitty pollster work is the cause. Biden +17 for Wisconsin right before the election and it’ll turn out to be +0.5. Give me a break. 

I think their is proof Trumpers lie when polled. I have found few that are shy.   

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9 hours ago, 818SUDSFan said:

538 has predicted the last two presidential elections as if there was no such thing as the Electoral College. Their approach has been misleading, contributed to angst and if those guys are actually true professionals worthy of the status they've achieved, they will do things considerably differently four years from now.

Why do so many folks obviously misunderstand what 538 does?

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3 hours ago, renoskier said:

Why do so many folks obviously misunderstand what 538 does?

I dont.  Nate makes predictions based on polls he likes every two years.  When the democrats win big, he is right.  Otherwise he is wrong.

Seriously though, I think him and Cooks cred is pretty shot now, dont you?

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5 hours ago, Maji said:

What about the shy Biden voters in Georgia?!? ;)

Every state is different and that means local cultures will vary. If you live in the south and live around nothing but Dem hating people, you’re not going to be so shy about giving your views. Up in liberal states where the left dominates, that’s the kind of environment that produces shy voters. 

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On 11/5/2020 at 10:16 AM, 818SUDSFan said:

538 supposedly adjusted its method by placing slightly more emphasis on votes from rural areas which they believed had been underemphasized four years ago. Nevertheless, 538 was giving Biden some ridiculously high chance to win this year. Something like 88%. Convert isn't correct on much but one thing he has been correct about is how overrated 538 is in predicting presidential elections involving Donald Trump.

I heard a piece on NPR asking pollsters why they got it wrong again. The spokesperson said they made adjustments to their methods after 2016 and most did a much better job in 2018. Than this election happened.

There is actually a theory within the groups that Donald Trump being on the ballot is an outlier and skews algorithms and data points from past. He brings out voters who are characterized as unlikely to vote and brings passion and urgency to those who are likely to vote.

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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19 hours ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Some important states will end up extremely close. But if Biden maintains his lead in the states he is currently leading he will win over 300 EC votes and will win the popular vote by several million. I don’t know if I’d call that a blowout, but it’s not a close win either. 

In sporting terminology, " He handled his business."

"We don't have evidence but, we have lot's of theories."

Americans Mayor

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DING DONG DONALD TRUMP IS DEAD!

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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8 hours ago, Nevada Convert said:

What does 538 do?  I’ll tell you. They take pollster data and manipulate it, and then manufacture garbage with it. The election results make that abundantly clear. 

This is what 538 said on November 3. What's wrong with this?

 
Our 2020 presidential forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in!
A TRUMP WIN!
A BIDEN WIN!
A BIDEN WIN!

Biden is favored to win the election

UPDATED 4 DAYS AGO
A BIDEN WIN!
A BIDEN WIN!
A BIDEN WIN!

Latest news

NOV. 3, 2020

Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)

  • According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it’s not as large a margin as Biden might like. Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. (TL;DR there’s no clear Plan B for Biden.) Want to run through your own hypothetical scenarios? You now can with our interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways each candidate could win. We’re hoping to use this tool ourselves on election night to better understand Biden and Trump’s paths to victory, especially if the outstanding vote takes a while to be counted.
  • Unless Trump or Biden has a really good night on Nov. 3, it’s pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. That doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that we won’t have a pretty good idea of who won. It’s all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won’t always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. We’re tracking when we expect results in every state.

2020 ELECTION COVERAGE

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2 minutes ago, modestobulldog said:

Frank Zappa understood mainstream media.

Screenshot_20201107-144252.png

Brother, any intelligent person in the last 200 years has known the "media" is for sale and garbage.  The problem is the thinking that "alternative" or social media sources are good because msm is bad. 

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