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Rebels18

DING DONG LEGACY MEDIA IS DEAD

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14 hours ago, Nevada Convert said:

Even if Trump loses, they were all sooooooooo wrong. Nate Silver, the 538 guy that you guys have on the ceiling above your bed so you can look up to him, and pray to him. This morning he said that Biden has like a 78% chance to win, NY Times said 70% chance Biden wins FL. There was a recent poll in Wisconsin that had Biden +17 !!!!!!  And looking at what votes are left, Trump should win WI, and MI. 

There’s still 1 million votes to be counted in AZ, and many have said they called it too early. 

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15 hours ago, sebasour said:

 

This is why you look at averages and not outlier polls.

Oh come one.

Look, the only reason the RCP's battlegrounds tightened up over the last weekend was because Rasmussen and Trafalgars polls hit and are included in the final batch.

Quinnipiac, Monmoth, and a lot of others are missing calls by like 10 points.  In the same direction as last time, only worse.

Are you seriously claiming that the GOP and Trump didn't vastly overperform versus polling expectations?

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15 hours ago, CPslograd said:

Oh come one.

Look, the only reason the RCP's battlegrounds tightened up over the last weekend was because Rasmussen and Trafalgars polls hit and are included in the final batch.

Quinnipiac, Monmoth, and a lot of others are missing calls by like 10 points.  In the same direction as last time, only worse.

Are you seriously claiming that the GOP and Trump didn't vastly overperform versus polling expectations?

Yeah regardless of how this ends up it’s clear Trump voters were misrepresented in these prediction polls.. Way off the last 2 elections.

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Negative engagement bias is real. I have to wonder if the reason Trump related polls are so volatile is because he enflames the opposing side far more than any candidate in modern history and pollsters didn't do a good job of compensating for it. Just a thought. 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, AztecSU said:

Negative engagement bias is real. I have to wonder if the reason Trump related polls are so volatile is because he enflames the opposing side far more than any candidate in modern history and pollsters didn't do a good job of compensating for it. Just a thought. 

538 supposedly adjusted its method by placing slightly more emphasis on votes from rural areas which they believed had been underemphasized four years ago. Nevertheless, 538 was giving Biden some ridiculously high chance to win this year. Something like 88%. Convert isn't correct on much but one thing he has been correct about is how overrated 538 is in predicting presidential elections involving Donald Trump.

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3 hours ago, 818SUDSFan said:

538 supposedly adjusted its method by placing slightly more emphasis on votes from rural areas which they believed had been underemphasized four years ago. Nevertheless, 538 was giving Biden some ridiculously high chance to win this year. Something like 88%. Convert isn't correct on much but one thing he has been correct about is how overrated 538 is in predicting presidential elections involving Donald Trump.

Don’t read 538 then?

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23 hours ago, CPslograd said:

Oh come one.

Look, the only reason the RCP's battlegrounds tightened up over the last weekend was because Rasmussen and Trafalgars polls hit and are included in the final batch.

Quinnipiac, Monmoth, and a lot of others are missing calls by like 10 points.  In the same direction as last time, only worse.

Are you seriously claiming that the GOP and Trump didn't vastly overperform versus polling expectations?

I would say the GOP overperformance vs some polls is evidence of fraud.  We need a CPA to investigate!

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14 hours ago, 818SUDSFan said:

538 supposedly adjusted its method by placing slightly more emphasis on votes from rural areas which they believed had been underemphasized four years ago. Nevertheless, 538 was giving Biden some ridiculously high chance to win this year. Something like 88%. Convert isn't correct on much but one thing he has been correct about is how overrated 538 is in predicting presidential elections involving Donald Trump.

I don't care about 538, but Biden is going to win and it's not really a squeaker, either. It just seems like it is because of the way the votes were counted and cast. If this were a normal year it would have been called on election night and we'd be talking about how Biden took back the blue wall and flipped Georgia and AZ (maybe). "A resounding victory" they would be saying.

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11 minutes ago, toonkee said:

I don't care about 538, but Biden is going to win and it's not really a squeaker, either. It just seems like it is because of the way the votes were counted and cast. If this were a normal year it would have been called on election night and we'd be talking about how Biden took back the blue wall and flipped Georgia and AZ (maybe). "A resounding victory" they would be saying.

Nah, its definitely a squeeker.

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On 11/3/2020 at 8:30 PM, masterfrog said:

I think that already means they were lying to us. All the major media outlets said it wasn’t even going to be close. 

Some important states will end up extremely close. But if Biden maintains his lead in the states he is currently leading he will win over 300 EC votes and will win the popular vote by several million. I don’t know if I’d call that a blowout, but it’s not a close win either. 

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32 minutes ago, SalinasSpartan said:

Some important states will end up extremely close. But if Biden maintains his lead in the states he is currently leading he will win over 300 EC votes and will win the popular vote by several million. I don’t know if I’d call that a blowout, but it’s not a close win either. 

Just be happy Biden won and rioters didn’t hit the streets in force. 

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On 11/3/2020 at 9:38 PM, Nevada Convert said:

Even if Trump loses, they were all sooooooooo wrong. Nate Silver, the 538 guy that you guys have on the ceiling above your bed so you can look up to him, and pray to him. This morning he said that Biden has like a 78% chance to win, NY Times said 70% chance Biden wins FL. There was a recent poll in Wisconsin that had Biden +17 !!!!!!  And looking at what votes are left, Trump should win WI, and MI. 

There’s still 1 million votes to be counted in AZ, and many have said they called it too early. 

If Biden wins Penn, Mi, Wisconsin, Georgia and AZ it seems to me Trafalgar was wrong. 

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On 11/5/2020 at 4:39 AM, IanforHeisman said:

Yeah regardless of how this ends up it’s clear Trump voters were misrepresented in these prediction polls.. Way off the last 2 elections.

It’s pretty clear Trump voters on many occasions would lie to pollsters to “+++++ with the libs”.  But the polls were big enough to give a clear indication Biden would win.  The Trafalgar group clearly over sampled Trump voters.  
 

the biggest issue is papers like the New York Times and Washington Post are used to their name bringing about a sense of legitimacy.   Now they will have to accept half the country will lie if they hear those names.  

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10 hours ago, toonkee said:

I don't care about 538, but Biden is going to win and it's not really a squeaker, either. It just seems like it is because of the way the votes were counted and cast. If this were a normal year it would have been called on election night and we'd be talking about how Biden took back the blue wall and flipped Georgia and AZ (maybe). "A resounding victory" they would be saying.

538 has predicted the last two presidential elections as if there was no such thing as the Electoral College. Their approach has been misleading, contributed to angst and if those guys are actually true professionals worthy of the status they've achieved, they will do things considerably differently four years from now.

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1 hour ago, 818SUDSFan said:

538 has predicted the last two presidential elections as if there was no such thing as the Electoral College. Their approach has been misleading, contributed to angst and if those guys are actually true professionals worthy of the status they've achieved, they will do things considerably differently four years from now.

Having heard their comments in their podcasts I don’t think this statement is True.   

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