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US Economy BOOMING

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21 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

This is not accurate.  The service industry, which provides a lot of jobs has been wrecked.  It's the industry my father is in.  He went from 40-48 hours a week to 20 hours and nobody is hiring for cooks or bar tenders (he is/has been both).  We have mom and pop places closing left and right.  Even my friends at Royal Meats went out of business.

Same situation here.  Small mom and pops getting killed.  Even with no lockdown, many people are simply not going out and your service/entertainment economy will tank.  Many won't reopen.  In some states the small business owner does not qualify for unemployment benefits and won't show up in the stats.

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17 minutes ago, AztecSU said:

Oh man, that is terrible and I hope your pop is able to find full-time work soon. I will say compared to the last downturn that seemed to hit white collar jobs very hard, this one seems to have decimated service industry and retail workers. 

Thanks, he lost his nice apartment and is currently living with me.  

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15 minutes ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

Thanks, he lost his nice apartment and is currently living with me.  

I have no idea what its like on the ground in Idaho, but its actually doing much better in terms of job losses and the rebound than most of the country. Hopefully that also means these jobs come back quicker than in other places. 

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1 hour ago, AztecSU said:

We took them because we anticipate a hit sometime between Q2 & Q4 2021 but if you look at our balance sheet today you would think we were rolling in it. IMO there may be a lot of firms projecting a hit next year...so why tax this relief before some companies have a chance to use it as intended, when they'll feel the impact of the current economic situation. 

Don't you have to spend it by February? Yeah you would think that the IRS would abide by the CARES act provisions but they aren't. Hopefully after the election is over, they can work on it.

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1 hour ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

This is not accurate.  The service industry, which provides a lot of jobs has been wrecked.  It's the industry my father is in.  He went from 40-48 hours a week to 20 hours and nobody is hiring for cooks or bar tenders (he is/has been both).  We have mom and pop places closing left and right.  Even my friends at Royal Meats went out of business.

Idaho is near the top of the list In lowest unemployment numbers. The service industry is much, much more than restaurant workers. I’m a CPA and I’m considered to be in be a service worker. 
 

https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

Idaho’s unemployment rate is at 6.1 percent which is pretty decent even in normal times. There are jobs to be had out there. 

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8 hours ago, AztecSU said:

netted 1.7% over the last 2 qtrs, woooo!

Actually we’re still down for the year. Even for the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Quote

Current‑dollar GDP increased 38.0 percent, or $1.64 trillion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.16 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP decreased 32.8 percent, or $2.04 trillion 

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2020-advance-estimate

So no the economy is not booming.  It won’t be booming until it recovers everything it lost and grows. 

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1 hour ago, mugtang said:

Actually we’re still down for the year. Even for the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2020-advance-estimate

So no the economy is not booming.  It won’t be booming until it recovers everything it lost and grows. 

Remember, GDP includes government spending too. A lot of artificial, similar to 2009-10.

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53 minutes ago, East Coast Aztec said:

Remember, GDP includes government spending too. A lot of artificial, similar to 2009-10.

Yes I forgot to mention that.  The stimulus significantly propped up the economy in the 3rd quarter.  But it’s booming!!!!!

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7 hours ago, halfmanhalfbronco said:

This is not accurate.  The service industry, which provides a lot of jobs has been wrecked.  It's the industry my father is in.  He went from 40-48 hours a week to 20 hours and nobody is hiring for cooks or bar tenders (he is/has been both).  We have mom and pop places closing left and right.  Even my friends at Royal Meats went out of business.

I imagine a lot of the spending is still happening but being displaced. Service and some retail industry are getting killed, but online and some other retail are way way up. This is anecdotal, but Santa Fe rail lines that run freight to and from the Valley and to and from the rest of the country run right down the street from me. I take my boy down to a park pretty regularly, like every other day, to watch the trains go by and count the cars. He loves it. Not long after the pandemic settled in, those trains are packed full of Amazon, FedEx and UPS cars. One after another after another, double decker car after double decker car. It wasn't anything like that before the pandemic. The money is going somewhere. 

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I will soon become an unemployment statistic, and I couldn't be happier.  I was going to retire May 31st, but my company is having cutbacks. I decided to wait, I just heard this week that I'm being laid off, getting a huge severance, with interest rates so low, the lump sum payout on the pension is through the roof, subsidized health care for me and family in Cobra at employee rates, collect unemployment.  On payroll through the end of January, but last day in office is the week before Christmas. Since I will be on payroll in January, I will even get the full 2021 company contribution into my HSA. The only downside was I had to purchase my pre-tax transit so far in advance, I am stuck with over $500 in Altamont Commuter Express train and Modesto Area Express shuttle bus tickets.  I haven't been in the office since March.  I need to figure out how to unload them.   On the other hand, I was able to take 3 trips to Wisconsin and work from my cabin for a total of 15 weeks.

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15 hours ago, NMpackalum said:

Don't you have to spend it by February? Yeah you would think that the IRS would abide by the CARES act provisions but they aren't. Hopefully after the election is over, they can work on it.

You do, but if your ops are running relatively normal through this period, then you just end up saving the operating cash you would've spent on payroll. So there will be a batch of companies out there, mine included, that have built up a nice cash balance thanks to PPP. 

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12 hours ago, Wyoguns said:

Only if it was from @kingpotatos mom!  Too much teeth!

You sure about that? It seems like she'd be the type of woman who can take 'em out.

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10 hours ago, modestobulldog said:

I will soon become an unemployment statistic, and I couldn't be happier.  I was going to retire May 31st, but my company is having cutbacks. I decided to wait, I just heard this week that I'm being laid off, getting a huge severance, with interest rates so low, the lump sum payout on the pension is through the roof, subsidized health care for me and family in Cobra at employee rates, collect unemployment.  On payroll through the end of January, but last day in office is the week before Christmas. Since I will be on payroll in January, I will even get the full 2021 company contribution into my HSA. The only downside was I had to purchase my pre-tax transit so far in advance, I am stuck with over $500 in Altamont Commuter Express train and Modesto Area Express shuttle bus tickets.  I haven't been in the office since March.  I need to figure out how to unload them.   On the other hand, I was able to take 3 trips to Wisconsin and work from my cabin for a total of 15 weeks.

Congrats on your early retirement!

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1 hour ago, Los_Aztecas said:

You sure about that? It seems like she'd be the type of woman who can take 'em out.

Well she does but she has that one snaggly meth tooth that she drags all the time.  Makes me want to smack the ho

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23 hours ago, Bob said:

If you want Crazy Uncle Joe to put you under lockdown and significantly raise taxes and kill your 401k, well, that's your prerogative.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/us-gdp-report-third-quarter-2020.html

First, it is good news that the economy grew at such a clip and showed signs of recovery.  However, measuring GDP growth quarter to quarter, especially in such an anomalous year, makes no sense.  Typically, GDP growth is measured quarter over quarter, not quarter to quarter.  The better measurement would be Q3 2020 over Q3 2019.  I am pretty sure there would not be 30%+ growth.  If you measured quarter to quarter, you will see all kinds of business cycle noise.  For example, Q4 would show gigantic growth in the retail sector compared to Q3 and it would be meaningless noise (holiday shopping in Q4 that does not exist in Q3).

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