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Nevada Convert

Very 2016 Accurate: Latest Trafalgar 2020 Poll Results

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These guys were very close in 2016 on the battleground states, and they claim to have a way to determine shy Trump voters. They factor in 2016 shy voter info. and other things happening now to determine 2020 shy voter total. I don’t think they have it all accounted for, but these results are probably the closest to reality than others right now. It’s important to note that just a couple of weeks ago, most of these Trafalgar polls had Biden leading. There’s no doubt there’s a late surge going in Trump’s direction.  Why? That’s another thread to sort out. But his non-stop campaigning lately is paying off. 
 

+ 3.2 Biden = Minnesota 
+ 0.4 Biden  = Wisconsin
+ 0.6 Trump = Michigan
+ 0.8 Trump = Pennsylvania 
+ 2.3 Trump = Florida
+ 2.8 Trump = North Carolina
+ 3.7 Trump = Ohio
+ 4.0 Trump = Arizona

 

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org

kat.jpg

 

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Nobody really knows. Some liberals are it’s a blowout Biden. A number are very concerned about polls like this. As they should be based on 2016. Polls that are showing Biden neck and neck in Texas and leading in Georgia is extremely suspect to me. There is no doubt that a number of things point to Trump winning. The same polls that predicted this in 2016 are being discredited. Rasmussen polls have to be very concerning for Democrats. His favorable rating is way higher than Obama in 2012. Even I question that a bit though.
 

Even if these polls are accurate, and who knows. this is going to be close. If Trump wins all the ones he leads by 2 in the above poll but losses the rest I’m curious what the count would be.

 

Apparently there is hidden Trump voters. now they are talking about a hidden Biden voters. 
 

Trump has thousands at rallies. People are waiting out in the cold to support him. Biden can’t pay a soul to attend his. Trump supporters are all over my town every day with mini rallies now. I didn’t even see this in 2016. 
 

90% of the polls or wrong or the 10% of the polls are wrong. 
 

As a Trump supporter I’m concerned but I personally am seeing and feeling like Trump might do it again. 

The Masters 5k road race All American.

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Trafalgar intentionally skews their results for Trump. They add in a "social desirability" bias adding to Trump's total. There's also concern that their polling isn't even legitimate.

If you are a partisan pollster intentionally putting out favorable results for your side, you're going to be right on occasion. You're also going to be laughably wrong many others.  There's a reason why data scientists advocate for weighing the polls and looking at averages vs taking one favorable poll from a low-quality pollster as gospel.

Shown below is a great example of what happens when a pollster intentionally fibs the results when the climate isn't in their favor. Not a huge fan of RCP, but...

20201025_154640.jpg

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4 minutes ago, Maji said:

Trafalgar intentionally skews their results for Trump. They add in a "social desirability" bias adding to Trump's total. There's also concern that their polling isn't even legitimate.

If you are a partisan pollster intentionally putting out favorable results for your side, you're going to be right on occasion. You're also going to be laughably wrong many others.  There's a reason why data scientists advocate for weighing the polls and looking at averages vs taking one favorable poll from a low-quality pollster as gospel.

Shown below is a great example of what happens when a pollster intentionally fibs the results when the climate isn't in their favor. Not a huge fan of RCP, but...

20201025_154640.jpg

I think one big story will be the 18-29 age group.   My kids, niece and nephew are in that group and turnout seems to be very high.   My niece in Texas says around 75% or higher of her friend group has voted.   We shall see how it plays out but it is one to watch.

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2 hours ago, Del Scorcho said:

too bad you didn't use trafalgar's 2018

 

Let's cut them some slack for 2018. Trafalgar's data is based on throwing darts at a target and that year, the pub they use had two-for-one beer nights so everybody was sloshed.

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I'm wary of polls that intentionally juice their numbers with arbitrary Lean-R metrics. In 2016 it worked sort of, but it isn't 2016.

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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2 hours ago, bsu_alum9 said:

Depends which way the error falls.

image.png.61fa2a047d84415adf980223b99e3c2f.png

If R+4 then will be a Trump win.  If D+4 it will be a Biden blowout.  If +1 either way it is a Biden win.

 

I mean, the pollsters have changed their methodologies to weight more heavily for the demographic that Trump won last time and who were underrepresented in the polls. And as far as I can tell, that's the only demographic along with Cubans in Florida where Trump hasn't lost support. So unless there is another hidden demographic that comes out in big enough numbers to give him wins in multiple states, the odds are really for the error showing more Trump support than there really is. And since the three big tipping point states (AZ, PA, FL) are three corners of a triangle on the map, I think it's unlikely that the same demographic tips all three states like you saw with MI, WIS and PA last time. It seems like the best bet for things breaking to Trump is getting enough turnout from his support base (basically breaking the likely voter category) and getting those three states close enough for a 2000 redux.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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33 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

I mean, the pollsters have changed their methodologies to weight more heavily for the demographic that Trump won last time and who were underrepresented in the polls. And as far as I can tell, that's the only demographic along with Cubans in Florida where Trump hasn't lost support. So unless there is another hidden demographic that comes out in big enough numbers to give him wins in multiple states, the odds are really for the error showing more Trump support than there really is. And since the three big tipping point states (AZ, PA, FL) are three corners of a triangle on the map, I think it's unlikely that the same demographic tips all three states like you saw with MI, WIS and PA last time. It seems like the best bet for things breaking to Trump is getting enough turnout from his support base (basically breaking the likely voter category) and getting those three states close enough for a 2000 redux.

If Trump wins, it will be interesting to see how much we trust polling companies and data journalists going forward.  It seems to be a complex business.  The polling itself is not the issue, but the modeling that is done with the polling data.  The modeling was definitely off in 2016.

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