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Election Prediction Thread

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1 hour ago, Rebels18 said:

What generalization? I gave multiple, specific examples where we argued on opposite sides the last 4 where one side was based on baseless accusations via media-manipulation and the other was a demand for evidence and FULL CONTEXT.. Were you not appalled by the "suckers and fools" quote about dead soldiers quote in the thread on this board...and yet did not consider the lack of source or veritable evidence of such a ridiculous lie? it's the same same field as Trump N-word or Pee-Pee tapes. But it's actually reported! 

Investigative journalism is dead among the mainstream media. The media just lies and it's difficult to determine the truth from the muck on both sides.--and that it's manipulated people's opinions. 

fwiw, I was a bit harsh in saying you can't form your own opinion--that wasn't true and I humbly apologize Lord Muggy. 

I have consistently said the media is not fair to Trump. And that wasn’t my issue. I outlined my issue above and I appreciate the apology. All is good. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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1 hour ago, Maji said:

I can't be betting $500, but I disagree with you. Republicans in Georgia are expecting a close race.

Right. As Wyo Joe has said for weeks, Biden isn't going to win Florida because its demographics have remained largely constant. However, not so with GA and particularly NC. Both have been evolving from largely agricultural states to aggie/tech states. Tech firms lure college graduates and by and large, they are left leaning. Doesn't necessarily mean they won't vote Liberatarian or just sit out elections but polls show that isn't happening in 2020.

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1 minute ago, 818SUDSFan said:

Right. As Wyo Joe has said for weeks, Biden isn't going to win Florida because its demographics have remained largely constant. However, not so with GA and particularly NC. Both have been evolving from largely agricultural states to aggie/tech states. Tech firms lure college graduates and by and large, they are left leaning. Doesn't necessarily mean they won't vote Liberatarian or just sit out elections but polls show that isn't happening in 2020.

I wouldn't completely dismiss Biden's chances in Florida though. It's always extremely close

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Props to those who called an election tighter than a nun's twat.

If I were a betting man, I'd attribute the discrepancy between poll numbers and polling numbers to the likelihood that a fair percentage of Trump voters are well-aware of his critical character flaws and are embarrassedAF to acknowledge voting for him.

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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54 minutes ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Props to those who called an election tighter than a nun's twat.

If I were a betting man, I'd attribute the discrepancy between poll numbers and polling numbers to the likelihood that a fair percentage of Trump voters are well-aware of his critical character flaws and are embarrassedAF to acknowledge voting for him.

I think it’s more they hear CNN, Washington Post, New York Times and purposely lie to “+++++ with the libs”.   I live by too many of them to think they would ever tell the truth.   Has nothing to do with being shy or embarrassed.  

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8 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

I think it’s more they hear CNN, Washington Post, New York Times and purposely lie to “+++++ with the libs”.   I live by too many of them to think they would ever tell the truth.   Has nothing to do with being shy or embarrassed.  

I appreciate the insight. It reminds me of these signs I saw on a news segment in PA last week:

61xtiWI+jrL._AC_SS350_.jpg

St-Javelin-Sm.jpgChase.jpg 

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1 hour ago, TheSanDiegan said:

Props to those who called an election tighter than a nun's twat.

If I were a betting man, I'd attribute the discrepancy between poll numbers and polling numbers to the likelihood that a fair percentage of Trump voters are well-aware of his critical character flaws and are embarrassedAF to acknowledge voting for him.

That's what I was saying all along. That this is as razor thin as it is isnt a shock. Political polarity is a mother+++++er. 

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On 11/2/2020 at 7:47 PM, smltwnrckr said:

Ol, I'm gonna put my nuts on the line here and make my real prediction.

This feels like the Y2k situation to me. Not the 2000 election but all the hype about the new years apocalypse that ended up being anti climactic. I think I go to bed around midnight PT knowing biden won even if the media outlets hold off from pulling the trigger. I think he wins at least 2/3 of pa, az and fl. My gut says he sweeps, but I'm hedging. 

I think that the whole votes fight isnt gonna happen. I think trump refuses to concede for a while if not forever, but everyone else accepts the results and things are clear with a biden victory speech before friday. The final tally has biden above 300.

Bump... Everyone defend your projections!

I don't think it was that bad of a prediction... He's gonna win PA and AZ, and I was unsure enough to hedge my gut feeling on FL as well. The timeline is all off, but that's largely because I didn't think it would take as long as it did to count the outstanding ballots. But I should know better. I've been around elections enough to know that absentees take time. A lot of them take a lot of time. If these results posted on election night, the narrative about how "close" this election was and how Trump almost won would be more about Trump having a strong showing despite a clear loss. The closest states will be GA and Wis, and Biden would still have won without them.

@Joe from WY was right about Florida (mainly why I hedged on Biden winning it), and he was right about this being close. But I don't think it will end as razor thin as it looks even now. PA will be won by a six-figure margin, and AZ won't come down to the wire. Trump's sprint to the finish there is already slowing down. 

Now that it's clear that it's over, I expect Trump to keep flailing for a while and trying to take things to the court and trying to do mess with electors and so on. And he definitely won't concede. But there won't be any institutional support and he'll wimper off. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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On 11/3/2020 at 1:10 PM, Rebelbacker said:

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Big brain analysis here

On 12/1/2016 at 12:26 PM, WyomingCoog said:

I own a vehicle likely worth more than everything you own combined and just flew first class (including a ticket for a 2 1/2 year old), round trip to Las Vegas and I'm not 35 yet. When you accomplish something outside of finishing a book, let me know. When's the last time you saw a 2 year old fly first class in their own seat? Don't tell me about elite.  

28 minutes ago, NorCalCoug said:

I’d happily compare IQ’s with you any day of the week.

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