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Election Prediction Thread

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4 minutes ago, Maji said:

This is my map (without toss-ups or lean ratings). I expect Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia to be extremely close. Any result -- except a comfortable win for either candidate -- in those states wouldn't surprise me. If the Democrats can't win any of the three, Pennsylvania becomes the most important state. I see Biden winning the state by five or six, but it will take a few days for full results

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Probably accurate. I think Florida going to Biden is more likely than Georgia but either way it’s a Biden win. Biden probably ends up with 310 to 330. 

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29 minutes ago, Del Scorcho said:

the electoral college was around back when a black mans vote still only counted as 3/5 of a vote and women weren't allowed to vote. Why were still using this system is baffling.

Its like Stunner still using his my space page on his commodore 64 in 2040

Not just the electoral college... but the Senate!!

Still can't figure out why every State gets 2 Senators (a rule that was created when a black mans vote still only counted as 3/5 of a vote and women weren't allowed to vote),

 

Don't they realize that more people live in California than in Wyoming? 

 Why is it fair that Wyoming gets 2 Senators, and California gets 2 Senators? 

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33 minutes ago, Rebelbacker said:

The coalitions have changed. Trump will get 15-23% of the black vote and around 40% of hispanic vote. Working class voters are coming out in droves. Independents are breaking to Trump. 

Trump lost NH by 3000 votes in 16 and the universities with their GOTV are not in session there. 

MN and WI strength for Trump has increased. MN will be close but I think Trump wins. 

Trump has the far superior ground game and today it will show. Record turnout for GOP today. Low propensity voters are turning out for Trump. 

It’s already a very high turnout and Trump supporters are a lot more enthusiastic about their candidate than Biden supporters are for theirs. Many black voters are finally understanding Democrat’s aren’t their friends after they leave the ballot booth. 

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17 minutes ago, Maji said:

This is my map (without toss-ups or lean ratings). I expect Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia to be extremely close. Any result -- except a comfortable win for either candidate -- in those states wouldn't surprise me. If the Democrats can't win any of the three, Pennsylvania becomes the most important state. I see Biden winning the state by five or six, but it will take a few days for full results

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Florida will be called early for Trump. Biden may not even win Dade county. NC and Georgia will go Trump. Georgia will not be close. 

I'll bet you $500 right now Biden won't win PA by 5 or 6. 

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7 minutes ago, Rebelbacker said:

Florida will be called early for Trump. Biden may not even win Dade county. NC and Georgia will go Trump. Georgia will not be close. 

I'll bet you $500 right now Biden won't win PA by 5 or 6. 

I can't be betting $500, but I disagree with you. Republicans in Georgia are expecting a close race.

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16 hours ago, mugtang said:

There’s a lot I want to unpack with this statement.  I would hope that after posting together for 8+ years you would be able to see that I’m capable of forming my own opinions and thoughts.  I’m going to leave it at that. 

I believe you are capable of forming your own thoughts. Biden is an empty suit. This election is the media vs. Trump. My point is the media has overwhelmingly influenced people's opinions of Trump falsely. It's not your fault that Wapo, CNN, MSNBC are political weapons of the far-left.  Accusations such as accusing him of being rapist, racist, and refusing to condemn white supremacy are just a few lies about Trump that I am still shocked to see people believe. There's no actual investigative journalism going on in this country anymore--it's baseless accusations typically founded upon misquotes like "Very fine people on both sides"--- Or Trump calling dead soldiers "losers and suckers" based on some anonymous source. Or Kavanaugh forced to defend his reputation based on a woman's accusation who couldn't recall when/where/what time her sexual assault occurred and couldn't even muster any legitimate witnesses amongst her own friends and supporters to collaborate with her story. Lies built upon lies. Thankfully for the electorate, the bad guys aren't winning today. 

image.png.40589813bd771c427cb5e7cc056b79e4.png

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25 minutes ago, Rebelbacker said:

Florida will be called early for Trump. Biden may not even win Dade county. NC and Georgia will go Trump. Georgia will not be close. 

I'll bet you $500 right now Biden won't win PA by 5 or 6. 

I think he has made a reasonable prediction based on the data we have

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1 minute ago, robe said:

I think he has made a reasonable prediction based on the data we have

That data is based on polls. I'm basing it on voter registration, early voting numbers, voter files, party votes left etc. Basing anything on the polls alone will not age well. 

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7 minutes ago, Rebels18 said:

I believe you are capable of forming your own thoughts. Biden is an empty suit. This election is the media vs. Trump. My point is the media has overwhelmingly influenced people's opinions of Trump falsely. It's not your fault that Wapo, CNN, MSNBC are political weapons of the far-left.  Accusations such as accusing him of being rapist, racist, and refusing to condemn white supremacy are just a few lies about Trump that I am still shocked to see people believe. There's no actual investigative journalism going on in this country anymore--it's baseless accusations typically founded upon misquotes like "Very fine people on both sides"--- Or Trump calling dead soldiers "losers and suckers" based on some anonymous source. Or Kavanaugh forced to defend his reputation based on a woman's accusation who couldn't recall when/where/what time her sexual assault occurred and couldn't even muster any legitimate witnesses amongst her own friends and supporters to collaborate with her story. Lies built upon lies. Thankfully for the electorate, the bad guys aren't winning today. 

image.png.40589813bd771c427cb5e7cc056b79e4.png

No you don't get to cop out like that and start playing the generalization game.  You said "An opinion that was formulated by the same media that manipulated you into believing Biden will win" as if I was unable to formulate my own thoughts and my opinion of both Trump and my prediction for the election was sole based on manipulation by the media.  So either you think I'm simply a lemming and cannot form my own opinion or you owe me an apology.  

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16 hours ago, Maji said:

It's pointless because we don't see eye to eye on things.

I think we have much more in common than you think in regard to grievances with Trump. But you just alluded to Trump's "many failures" as to why you can't support him but can't list any (I think I chopped you off at the knees by citing "the 200k!!111!" though. )

I could probably list more failures than you could, but only in the ways he's been much too moderate to appease the left. After his election, I hope he goes much more hard-right.  Trump is, afterall the last, best hope for western civilization.--and after this election we're gonna save this country from you competent fools kicking and screaming if we have to. 

you actually voted for a corrupt crime family that's completely owned by China. (who inflicted us with this virus btw)  pretty cringe, ngl 

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1 minute ago, Rebels18 said:

I think we have much more in common than you think in regard to grievances with Trump. But you just alluded to Trump's "many failures" as to why you can't support him but can't list any (I think I chopped you off at the knees by citing "the 200k!!111!" though. )

I could probably list more failures than you could, but only in the ways he's been much too moderate to appease the left. After his election, I hope he goes much more hard-right.  Trump is, afterall the last, best hope for western civilization.--and after this election we're gonna save this country from you competent fools kicking and screaming if we have to. 

you actually voted for a corrupt crime family that's completely owned by China. (who inflicted us with this virus btw)  pretty cringe, ngl 

I could write you a whole essay, but it would be pointless. What I see as a failure, you probably see as a success. What's your stance on trade? Do you support Trump's tariffs?

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Idaho has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. Before COVID-19, the economy was booming due to trade with countries in Asia. Without the need for reelection, can you guarantee Trump wouldn't elevate the trade war? A trade war would disproportionately impact states like Idaho.

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1 minute ago, mugtang said:

No you don't get to cop out like that and start playing the generalization game.  You said "An opinion that was formulated by the same media that manipulated you into believing Biden will win" as if I was unable to formulate my own thoughts and my opinion of both Trump and my prediction for the election was sole based on manipulation by the media.  So either you think I'm simply a lemming and cannot form my own opinion or you owe me an apology.  

What generalization? I gave multiple, specific examples where we argued on opposite sides the last 4 where one side was based on baseless accusations via media-manipulation and the other was a demand for evidence and FULL CONTEXT.. Were you not appalled by the "suckers and fools" quote about dead soldiers quote in the thread on this board...and yet did not consider the lack of source or veritable evidence of such a ridiculous lie? it's the same same field as Trump N-word or Pee-Pee tapes. But it's actually reported! 

Investigative journalism is dead among the mainstream media. The media just lies and it's difficult to determine the truth from the muck on both sides.--and that it's manipulated people's opinions. 

fwiw, I was a bit harsh in saying you can't form your own opinion--that wasn't true and I humbly apologize Lord Muggy. 

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On race and immigration, I view Trump as a white nationalist. The continuation of his immigration policies would harm this nation, as birth rates continue declining. You probably disagree with me on that.

On healthcare: Trump’s plan was disastrous

There are so many things I can go on about.

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12 minutes ago, Maji said:

I could write you a whole essay, but it would be pointless. What I see as a failure, you probably see as a success. What's your stance on trade? Do you support Trump's tariffs?

Trump's tariffs to put pressure on China in the trade war is what caused them to release COVID-19 on us rather than bend to our Trump's whims as their economy was rapidly crashing. Prior to COVID-19 the economy was at an all-time high and actual unemployment was basically 0. 

But it only came to China's biological warfare because Trumphad to rollback the deals that had Obama/Biden/Clintons sell this country out to personally enrich themselves for years.---or do you think COVID-19 happened because someone ate an undercooked bat? c'mon dude. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Maji said:

On race and immigration, I view Trump as a white nationalist. The continuation of his immigration policies would harm this nation, as birth rates continue declining. You probably disagree with me on that.

On healthcare: Trump’s plan was disastrous Trump never had a plan

There are so many things I can go on about.

Fixed the healthcare part for you.

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2 minutes ago, Rebels18 said:

Trump's tariffs to put pressure on China in the trade war is what caused them to release COVID-19 on us rather than bend to our Trump's whims as their economy was rapidly crashing. Prior to COVID-19 the economy was at an all-time high and actual unemployment was basically 0

But it only came to China's biological warfare that because Obama/Biden/Clintons was selling this country out to personally enrich themselves for years.---or do you think COVID-19 happened because someone ate an undercooked bat? c'mon dude. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Rebels18 said:

Trump's tariffs to put pressure on China in the trade war is what caused them to release COVID-19 on us rather than bend to our Trump's whims as their economy was rapidly crashing. Prior to COVID-19 the economy was at an all-time high and actual unemployment was basically 0. 

But it only came to China's biological warfare that because Obama/Biden/Clintons was selling this country out to personally enrich themselves for years.---or do you think COVID-19 happened because someone ate an undercooked bat? c'mon dude. 

 

As expected, you disagree with me. That's why telling you all of my disagreements with Trump is a waste of time. I don't dislike Trump only because of COVID-19. FWIW, many business leaders here were worried about a trade war escalation

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