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sebasour

Election Prediction Thread

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I think Biden wins and it won't be close. Worst case scenario for civil unrest would be a repeat of 2016 with Trump winning the electoral vote, but losing the popular vote. 

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21 minutes ago, ridgeview2 said:

I think Biden wins and it won't be close. Worst case scenario for civil unrest would be a repeat of 2016 with Trump winning the electoral vote, but losing the popular vote. 

Yeah and God Forbid, there is more than a small chance he could lose the popular vote by 5-10 points and Biden could have over 50% of the popular vote.  

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1 hour ago, Maji said:

It's definitely possible, given all the weighting adjustments they made. Even in a wave election the Republicans managed to outperform in Florida though. I didn't track the electorate there, but perhaps it's because midterm voters tend to skew older

My predictions accepts the poll results that those older voters have turned on trump over covid.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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1 hour ago, retrofade said:

But it doesn't rhyme.

 

1 hour ago, grandjean87 said:

nothing correct about that

Knobgobbler beats Knobslobberer 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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1 hour ago, sactowndog said:

Yeah I especially see this possibility among GOP women who hate Trump but don’t want a battle with their husbands.   Facebook even has a pretty massive Facebook support group over it.   
 

Curious of the married Trumpers here how many of your wives support Biden.  

If your theory is correct, they wouldn't know anyways. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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3 hours ago, UNLV2001 said:

AZ like NV comes down to Maricopa Pima & Clark Washoe counties - the rural areas are all red (except the Navajo Nation in NE AZ) 

Think the demographics of Maricopa have been shifting towards it being purple on a regular basis 


I live in a very red part of Maricopa County.  Also used to live in Washoe county.  I’ve seen a lot of motivated Trump voters making their presence seen around this area and nothing for Biden.  

Phoenix is definitely purple now and I expect there to be a quiet Biden voting block getting out there. But I haven’t seen it. Maybe they are More active in Flagstaff and Tucson.

For reference, In 2004 I saw a lot of active support for both Bush and Kerry in Reno.  More so for Bush.  

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4 hours ago, sactowndog said:

Yeah I especially see this possibility among GOP women who hate Trump but don’t want a battle with their husbands.   Facebook even has a pretty massive Facebook support group over it.   
 

Curious of the married Trumpers here how many of your wives support Biden.  

Mine does. 

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I think Biden wins, but it’s more because Trump beat himself by being a loud mouth asshole. Lots of people cut off their nose to spite their face and Trump is one of them. I still value his policies and Creepy Joe is going to be a failure for America in that department. Higher taxes, more regulation, higher unemployment, greater foreign conflict, etc., etc., etc. 

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1 minute ago, soupslam1 said:

I think Biden wins, but it’s more because Trump beat himself by being a loud mouth asshole. Lots of people cut off their nose to spite their face and Trump is one of them. I still value his policies and Creepy Joe is going to be a failure for America in that department. Higher taxes, more regulation, higher unemployment, greater foreign conflict, etc., etc., etc. 

IF Trump loses it will be because of the Coronavirus. 

I'm still saying if...

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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10 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

IF Trump loses it will be because of the Coronavirus. 

I'm still saying if...

I fully believe this. COVID-19 is what brings down The Don. He had multiple chances to get a leg up on the virus, but he continued to downplay it in fear of Wallstreet and his own ego/self image. 

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