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sebasour

Election Prediction Thread

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Some of the trump true believers have flown right through the jet wash. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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10 minutes ago, Maji said:

I was a tea party Republican in my defense

I was tea party curious after the crash. There was some legitimate indignation early on before that whole thing was usurped by hucksters who didn't discourage the racists loons who started showing up.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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1 hour ago, Rebels18 said:

I'm gonna be taking a major victory lap amongst people I know personally and acquaintances FIRST, and then eventually i'll log-in here to gloat about how I was right and you were wrong. Neener Neener Neener, I rule, you drool, 

etc etc 

Classy 

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1 hour ago, Rebels18 said:

An opinion that was formulated by the same media that manipulated you into believing Biden will win, Trump's COVID-19 response as bad, Mueller Report/Trump Russia Conspiracies, that Kavanaugh was a sexual abuser, that Trump will cause a Kurd-genocide by leaving them to the Turks, and so, so, so many more lies. 

The media is the enemy/ And it's my hope that this country will get a wake-up call tomorrow. 

There’s a lot I want to unpack with this statement.  I would hope that after posting together for 8+ years you would be able to see that I’m capable of forming my own opinions and thoughts.  I’m going to leave it at that. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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3 minutes ago, Maji said:

FWIW, I refused to vote for Trump in the general election

I'm not opposed to "thinking" republican's - My opposition is most of the GOP has become a bunch of gutless nutjobs cowering to trump & Cult 45 

in 1972 Republican senators went and visited Nixon & basically told him the gig was up...............today's republicans would go to kneel & slob trumps knob 

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1 minute ago, UNLV2001 said:

I'm not opposed to "thinking" republican's - My opposition is most of the GOP has become a bunch of gutless nutjobs cowering to trump & Cult 45 

in 1972 Republican senators went and visited Nixon & basically told him the gig was up...............today's republicans would go to kneel & slob trumps knob 

The correct term is gobble his knob. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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12 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

I was tea party curious after the crash. There was some legitimate indignation early on before that whole thing was usurped by hucksters who didn't discourage the racists loons who started showing up.

I was naive and didn't realize they were grifters. At the time, I was concerned with the national debt. I supported legal immigration but opposed illegal immigration. I thought the tea party was in line with that, but the deficit talk was merely a way of attacking Obama. As soon as Trump won they started spending like crazy. On immigration, the tea party seems more concerned with preventing immigration in the first place. The politicians use racist rhetoric to pander to populists and white nationalists.

My beliefs changed, but I still support free trade. The GOP is into protectionism now though

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Ol, I'm gonna put my nuts on the line here and make my real prediction.

This feels like the Y2k situation to me. Not the 2000 election but all the hype about the new years apocalypse that ended up being anti climactic. I think I go to bed around midnight PT knowing biden won even if the media outlets hold off from pulling the trigger. I think he wins at least 2/3 of pa, az and fl. My gut says he sweeps, but I'm hedging. 

I think that the whole votes fight isnt gonna happen. I think trump refuses to concede for a while if not forever, but everyone else accepts the results and things are clear with a biden victory speech before friday. The final tally has biden above 300.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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17 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

Ol, I'm gonna put my nuts on the line here and make my real prediction.

This feels like the Y2k situation to me. Not the 2000 election but all the hype about the new years apocalypse that ended up being anti climactic. I think I go to bed around midnight PT knowing biden won even if the media outlets hold off from pulling the trigger. I think he wins at least 2/3 of pa, az and fl. My gut says he sweeps, but I'm hedging. 

I think that the whole votes fight isnt gonna happen. I think trump refuses to concede for a while if not forever, but everyone else accepts the results and things are clear with a biden victory speech before friday. The final tally has biden above 300.

Florida looks tight. Possibly even lean Biden. After the polling miss in 2018 there I'm hesitant to predict a Biden win there

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2 minutes ago, Maji said:

Florida looks tight. Possibly even lean Biden. After the polling miss in 2018 there I'm hesitant to predict a Biden win there

I'm basing my prediction on the assumption that the pollsters have over-weighted trump support across the country because of what happened last time. Biden's lead is bigger than it looks.

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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5 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

I'm basing my prediction on the assumption that the pollsters have over-weighted trump support across the country because of what happened last time. Biden's lead is bigger than it looks.

It's definitely possible, given all the weighting adjustments they made. Even in a wave election the Republicans managed to outperform in Florida though. I didn't track the electorate there, but perhaps it's because midterm voters tend to skew older

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5 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

I'm basing my prediction on the assumption that the pollsters have over-weighted trump support across the country because of what happened last time. Biden's lead is bigger than it looks.

We've heard a LOT about the so-called "shy" Trump voters who are afraid of telling people that they support him. I can see how that was a thing in 2016 that wasn't accounted for. That said, Trump supporters seem to be pretty loud about it, even the ones who don't love everything about him seem to be willing to say that they're voting for him out of fear of the "liberal left" or whatever. 

So, I've been wondering over the last few weeks if there might be a "shy" Biden voter effect here. People who have strong GOP/conservative ties, but have grown so tired of Trump's constant debasing of the office that he occupies, that they're going to vote for Biden. Those same voters may not want to tell people in their immediate circles or perhaps even pollsters who they plan on voting for. I'm not saying that this is an actual real phenomenon, but it's just gotten me thinking, especially with how much the Trumpists around here play the "shy" card as it pertains to Trump voters. 

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Just now, retrofade said:

We've heard a LOT about the so-called "shy" Trump voters who are afraid of telling people that they support him. I can see how that was a thing in 2016 that wasn't accounted for. That said, Trump supporters seem to be pretty loud about it, even the ones who don't love everything about him seem to be willing to say that they're voting for him out of fear of the "liberal left" or whatever. 

So, I've been wondering over the last few weeks if there might be a "shy" Biden voter effect here. People who have strong GOP/conservative ties, but have grown so tired of Trump's constant debasing of the office that he occupies, that they're going to vote for Biden. Those same voters may not want to tell people in their immediate circles or perhaps even pollsters who they plan on voting for. I'm not saying that this is an actual real phenomenon, but it's just gotten me thinking, especially with how much the Trumpists around here play the "shy" card as it pertains to Trump voters. 

Yeah I especially see this possibility among GOP women who hate Trump but don’t want a battle with their husbands.   Facebook even has a pretty massive Facebook support group over it.   
 

Curious of the married Trumpers here how many of your wives support Biden.  

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13 minutes ago, retrofade said:

We've heard a LOT about the so-called "shy" Trump voters who are afraid of telling people that they support him. I can see how that was a thing in 2016 that wasn't accounted for. That said, Trump supporters seem to be pretty loud about it, even the ones who don't love everything about him seem to be willing to say that they're voting for him out of fear of the "liberal left" or whatever. 

So, I've been wondering over the last few weeks if there might be a "shy" Biden voter effect here. People who have strong GOP/conservative ties, but have grown so tired of Trump's constant debasing of the office that he occupies, that they're going to vote for Biden. Those same voters may not want to tell people in their immediate circles or perhaps even pollsters who they plan on voting for. I'm not saying that this is an actual real phenomenon, but it's just gotten me thinking, especially with how much the Trumpists around here play the "shy" card as it pertains to Trump voters. 

I get the feeling that trump bleeds some of his 2016 voters who've seen fully that he's a mental case & clown show.............that cuts down a % of the vote he got in 16

It also seems that the electorate is younger & more diverse than probably ever, which isn't a good sign for trump and GOP'ers down the ballot.

And let's not forget how razor thin trumps victory was in 16...........less than 80,000 votes spread over PA, WI, MI............looks like WI & MI got Biden fairly easily.

Women are abandoning trump by 2/3rds & they didn't like the ramming of the RGB SCOTUS seat thru, so there's reason they vote in droves

The early vote surge in some key generally red states could be a harbinger of a blue wave 

Finally - trump for good, bad or indifferent never gets out of the 40-45% range which should cap his vote also ...............if Florida see's big DEM votes & Biden does decent, that could also be a sign of the way the night could go

 

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2 minutes ago, sactowndog said:

Yeah I especially see this possibility among GOP women who hate Trump but don’t want a battle with their husbands.   Facebook even has a pretty massive Facebook support group over it.   
 

Curious of the married Trumpers here how many of your wives support Biden.  

I can say this for our immediate family that I know of.................3 Dems & 2 NP's = Biden 5 trump 0 (2 men & 3 women) 

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14 minutes ago, retrofade said:

We've heard a LOT about the so-called "shy" Trump voters who are afraid of telling people that they support him. I can see how that was a thing in 2016 that wasn't accounted for. That said, Trump supporters seem to be pretty loud about it, even the ones who don't love everything about him seem to be willing to say that they're voting for him out of fear of the "liberal left" or whatever. 

So, I've been wondering over the last few weeks if there might be a "shy" Biden voter effect here. People who have strong GOP/conservative ties, but have grown so tired of Trump's constant debasing of the office that he occupies, that they're going to vote for Biden. Those same voters may not want to tell people in their immediate circles or perhaps even pollsters who they plan on voting for. I'm not saying that this is an actual real phenomenon, but it's just gotten me thinking, especially with how much the Trumpists around here play the "shy" card as it pertains to Trump voters. 

There have been several media articles talking about the shy Biden voter, particularly in Conservative areas. Here is a quote from one:

"Asked if their neighbors would be surprised to learn whom they support, about the same overall share of Biden (14 percent) and Trump (12 percent) voters said yes. But when you zero in on Biden and Trump voters living in “enemy territory,” a clear distinction emerges. Just 20 percent of Trump voters with mostly Biden-backing neighbors say those neighbors would be surprised by their support for Trump. Among Biden voters in Trump country, however, that number is 10 points higher (30 percent). In other words, Biden voters are more inclined than Trump voters to stay silent when surrounded by the other side."

https://news.yahoo.com/whose-voters-are-hidden-in-polling-data-shy-biden-voters-may-actually-outnumber-trumps-090014890.html

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