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Election Prediction Thread

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6 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

That's the argument for a Biden blowout, as all discussions on polling are including that these polls are actively working to account for Trump support that they missed last time. If they overrepresent those voters this year, it won't be close. 

And that's the thing.  The pollsters don't want to be wrong.  There's not some grand conspiracy among all the polls to discredit Trump.  They want to get it right.  Obviously nobody can say what the actual outcome of the election will be but given the huge turnout so far and the continuing of the coronavirus along with the economy sucking I just don't see how Trump is reelected.  He has a core group of supporters who would follow him off a cliff but they don't make up a majority of the electorate.  I suspect he will lose the upper midwest again and if he loses PA & MI it's over.    

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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7 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

It's possible that others may too. I think Georgia is a better bet to flip than Montana though in that scenario. 

If Biden wins Texas then he will win the entire eastern seaboard, GA, OH, AZ, WI, MI, IA, PA along with all the other traditional blue states.   Even without Montana in that scenario Biden has 415 EV and all Trump can do is cry.  

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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Just now, mugtang said:

If Biden wins Texas then he will win the entire eastern seaboard, GA, OH, AZ, WI, MI, IA, PA along with all the other traditional blue states.   Even without Montana in that scenario Biden has 415 EV and all Trump can do is cry.  

If Biden wins Texas, Trump better be on the next plane to Saudi Arabia to claim asylum like Idi Amin did. 

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Just now, Joe from WY said:

If Biden wins Texas, Trump better be on the next plane to Saudi Arabia to claim asylum like Idi Amin did. 

I wonder if he will preside over the transition in that scenario or just say phuck this and disappear forcing the cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment.

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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Just now, mugtang said:

I wonder if he will preside over the transition in that scenario or just say phuck this and disappear forcing the cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment.

I'd err on the side of "disappear to foreign tax haven/asylum haven". 

he could probably become president of Lebanon if he wanted to in that scenario, I'd imagine. 

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13 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

That's true, but I'm basing my skepticism off of polls conducted by the NY Times fairly recently. 

Didnt see that one... but I think you're right he doesn't win Montana. But I bet its closer than it has been for a long time. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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1 minute ago, Joe from WY said:

I'd err on the side of "disappear to foreign tax haven/asylum haven". 

he could probably become president of Lebanon if he wanted to in that scenario, I'd imagine. 

Well he is BFFs with Kim Jung Un. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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3 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

Didnt see that one... but I think you're right he doesn't win Montana. But I bet its closer than it has been for a long time. 

I imagine it'll be closer than the last election when he won it by a 20 point margin, owing to growth in the Western part of the state, regardless. Billings has grown too, I suppose, but there's been a lot of growth in the western part of the state over the last few years. 

that said, i'm sticking to my belief it's going to be a nailbiter. I think even places like Nevada could be closer than we think they'll be. 

This is the most hyperpolarized electorate I've seen in my lifetime. Nothing would surprise me. 

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4 minutes ago, mugtang said:

I wonder if he will preside over the transition in that scenario or just say phuck this and disappear forcing the cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment.

This is interesting. If the pollsters are over-weighting trump support aNd we see a bona fide blowout, does Trump just pardon his friends and bail? 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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4 minutes ago, THEUniversityofNevada said:

If we don't know the winner on election night that is bad news for the COUNTRY. 

The media and both parties should be trying to prepare people for the distinct possibility that it could take several days to get all the votes counted. Unfortunately,  one side would likely try to use it as a conspiracy theory for a rigged election.

I'm a desperate man
Send lawyers, guns, and money
The shit has hit the fan

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On 10/26/2020 at 10:58 AM, bsu_alum9 said:

I think the turnout is going to be huge due to early/mail-in voting and isn't going to be good for Trump at all along with polls trying to correct 2016 errors.  I think it goes the other way by 2-3 pts this year flipping a lot of states that weren't thought to be swingers.  Here's my wild prediction.  I think senate goes blue 51-49 and house picks up a dozen more democrat seats.

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Republicans down to Minerals, Mormons, and Mississippi drainage states.

Would love to see this map - where trump just gets crushed to the point he can't challenge anything - Doubt it's that much of a blowout though 

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On 10/26/2020 at 11:56 AM, mugtang said:

I wonder if he will preside over the transition in that scenario or just say phuck this and disappear forcing the cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment.

This is why I want a blow out loss for trump.........leave him reeling and a loser without question - then he can resign, quit, defect to wherever, just as long as he has no opening to stir up his lunatic fringe & attempt to remain beyond noon 1/20/21 

If the election comes down to 2016 numbers (77,000 over three states) he won't budge & probably creates a full blown constitutional & national crisis 

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2 hours ago, bornontheblue said:

I will pay for an all expenses paid vacation to Buhl Idaho for anybody who correctly predicts the electoral votes correctly. 

 

I was hoping for Arco

110926run_defense710.jpg
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