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Election Prediction Thread

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We're 8 days away. Post your predictions here.

 

I think The Dems maintain a big majority in The House. In The Senate they pick up seats in Iowa, Maine, Arizona, Colorado, and North Carolina, but lose Alabama.

 

For POTUS, I'm really torn on Florida, but I'm gonna go

 

 

1286859826_ECMap.png.5fd5e731e9ed07206f694cfbb720f1c9.png

 

 

 

 

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Pizza delivery business will spike during Election Night coverage.

In the beginning the Universe was created.
This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.

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Trump gets blown out.  The election is all but over by the time the polls close on the west coast. Biden ends up with 350+ electoral votes. 

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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This is my prediction 

67D599FB-7B55-4FDB-AFEB-BC89FDFAFBA2.png

thelawlorfaithful, on 31 Dec 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:One of the rules I live by: never underestimate a man in a dandy looking sweater

 

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5 minutes ago, mugtang said:

Trump gets blown out.  The election is all but over by the time the polls close on the west coast. Biden ends up with 350+ electoral votes. 

This is increasingly likely. The more I've read about the polling and listened to the people who make the models based on polling averages, the more it seems to me that there's a lot of conservatism (literal, not ideological) baked into the model to make up for last time basically ignoring Trump support in the Rust Belt. I wouldn't be surprised if that conservatism is showing up as tighter polls than what is actually going on out there. I can see a blowout for Biden being obvious by the time I go to bed around midnight. 

But then again...

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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15 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

It's going to be tighter than a gnat's ass. 

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I'm surprised you didn't switch PA and MI. That's a tighter win, and it seems more likely. Otherwise, this map is the only way Trump wins. 

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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22 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

I'm surprised you didn't switch PA and MI. That's a tighter win, and it seems more likely. Otherwise, this map is the only way Trump wins. 

 

Almost gave him PA instead of Michigan but I think he wins MI owing to Gov. Whitmer's heavy handed approach to lockdowns. 

Depending on the fallout from Biden's tracking comments, Trump could win PA too i suppose. 

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6 minutes ago, Joe from WY said:

 

Almost gave him PA instead of Michigan but I think he wins MI owing to Gov. Whitmer's heavy handed approach to lockdowns. 

Depending on the fallout from Biden's tracking comments, Trump could win PA too i suppose. 

The polls seem to be widening for Biden in Michigan, not tightening. Is your take that the polls are just flat out wrong again?

Planning is an exercise of power, and in a modern state much real power is suffused with boredom. The agents of planning are usually boring; the planning process is boring; the implementation of plans is always boring. In a democracy boredom works for bureaucracies and corporations as smell works for skunk. It keeps danger away. Power does not have to be exercised behind the scenes. It can be open. The audience is asleep. The modern world is forged amidst our inattention.

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2 minutes ago, smltwnrckr said:

The polls seem to be widening for Biden in Michigan, not tightening. Is your take that the polls are just flat out wrong again?

USA Today has a story from this morning showing that polls are tightening in 10 of the 12 battleground states. 

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